Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Rb48888]

I hope this is ok to post here as a PSA.

Realizing that recent events are likely to drive new interest in this forum from folks who are just beginning their TSLA journey, I wanted to dig up a key post from @ReflexFunds . It’s a great introduction to many facts and concepts which underpin much of the confidence that many of us share around Tesla and the future of EVs.

ReflexFunds Bigger Picture Post

The Moderator's Choice thread itself is a great resource for anyone with a thirst for condensed knowledge on TSLA. It's not comprehensive, but if you’re intimidated by the 4800 pages of this thread, and looking to catch up quickly, it does cover some of the best posts of 2019 in only three pages. Reading through it is definitely time well spent.

New TSLA investors should also take a look beyond this thread to some of the more specialized TMC TSLA Investor Discussions that fit their personal investment principles.

• Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
• Market Politics
• Near-future Quarterly Financial Projections
• TSLA Technical Analysis

As well as the extremely insightful Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts, which are typically a joy to read during good times, and often a comfort when times are tough. (That @Papafox finds the time and energy to share his insights after every trading day is one of the 7 wonders of TMC.)

If you are reading this, and new to the community, welcome. You’ll find a wide range of opinions and a wealth of experience here.

Best of luck on your investment journey.

 

[c041v]

Sold 20% of my TSLA right before Q3 earnings. Felt bad. Bought them back this morning at 298. Feel better.

I did nearly the same, but got back in a $294.50 yesterday

 

[FreqFlyer]

Apple stock apps sucks. But its showing SP 315.30...................If any short stayed after the 50 point run up, this, from their point of view, is worse. They can't change the momentum which seems to be up.

 

[Causalien]

$308 was my average too until a few months ago. But I've kept buying all the way down, with the last buy at $182, and my average is $240 now. It's nice to finally have a big cushion under my position. You will hopefully soon have that big cushion too.

You joined in 2012 but your cost basis is $240? Doesn't compute.

 

[LoveTSLA]

Buyers went to lunch. They told me they'll be back at 1pm to get the price above $320 hehe.

Hmm that could be too soon but I am thinking it will be over 325 next week.

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - this morning:

Tesla is in 'final stages' of selecting site for European Gigafactory - Electrek

Tesla Model Y prototype makes it all the way to Michigan, watch it zip by cars - Electrek

Tesla starts selling made-in-China Model 3 with Autopilot for ~$50,000 - Electrek

Democrats unveil $462 billion electric car incentive plan to push if elected - Electrek

Tesla vandal admits to keying Model 3 when confronted with Sentry Mode video - Electrek

 

[UncaNed]

I did pretty much exactly that. I knew I was hedging but it still worked out very well in the net.

Wasn't that a huge loss though?

 

[c041v]

You joined in 2012 but your cost basis is $240? Doesn't compute.

I think you missed the first line - $308 was the ACB until a few months ago. For what it's worth, I also joined in 2012, and my cost basis is near that too, at least according to my accounts. Several cases of pre-earnings jitters caused me to hop in and out over the years. I might have finally learned my lesson after being fooled thrice?

 

[shrspeedblade]

Apple stock apps sucks. But its showing SP 315.30...................If any short stayed after the 50 point run up, this, from their point of view, is worse. They can't change the momentum which seems to be up.

I've waited a long time to post this:

 

[M3Rider]

Elon makes good on another promise, albeit on Elon time: shorts got the burn of the century...Eastern Standard Elon time.

Not all get to burn until we go above prior ATH.
It's possible a lot have covered at a profit.

Wouldn't today be the day for forced liquidations if some shorts on vacation did not pay attention to the margin calls?

 

[UncaNed]

Power wall bracket...he has 2 of them...lucky bastage.

Ah... I was wondering why so close to the floor,... I figured it must be for videos for the cats...

 

[UncaNed]

Well, the dumbest ones are doubling down and shorting more.

I mean, if it's a good short at $250, it's an awesome short over $300.

 

[JusRelax]

Ok, gonna post this... but PLEASE do NOT learn from me.... I got EXTREMELY lucky on this trade and it was completely with just play money.

Disclaimers aside, this is how you turn $700 into 15 shares of stock.

Edit: I find it funny i was able to sell 9 of my puts for a cent each today LOL. Commission took half of my money on that trade!

 

[jerry33]

You joined in 2012 but your cost basis is $240? Doesn't compute.

Some of us didn't have the money to invest when we joined.

 

[KSilver2000]

You joined in 2012 but your cost basis is $240? Doesn't compute.

Why not? 2012 was the last time in double digits. Then it hovered in the $200’s forever until 2017, at which point was in the $300’s until earlier this year. A lot of people bought a lot of shares between 2017 and 2019 in the $300’s, especially when Musk tweeted going private, hehe.

 

[GBleck]

 

[thait84]

Ok, gonna post this... but PLEASE do NOT learn from me.... I got EXTREMELY lucky on this trade and it was completely with just play money.

Disclaimers aside, this is how you turn $700 into 15 shares of stock.

View attachment 469912

Edit: I find it funny i was able to sell 9 of my puts for a cent each today LOL. Commission took half of my money on that trade!

Reminds me of /r/wallstreetbets/

 

[JusRelax]

Reminds me of /r/wallstreetbets/

As disclaimed in my original, DO NOT learn from me!

 

[Antares Nebula]

Call me a simpleton, but I see a much simpler story: Post M3 announcement, the market assigned Tesla a market cap of about $50-60 billion, based mostly on the intermediate-term potential of Fremont. As soon as the company started guiding lower for Q1, the SP took a dive, which continued precisely until the delivery report in Q2 reassured investors that Q1 was an aberration, and has since climbed back into the $50-60 billion market cap range. End of story.


Where does the story go next? I think three things are likely (but of course anything can happen, so not stock advice!) :

1. If...IF....Musk is right that the company will generate profits and positive cash flow every quarter going forward, the market will probably not reduce the market cap below $50 billion.

2. There are a number of potential developments in the next 12 months that would cause the market to greatly increase the market cap. The biggest one in my view is for China to really take off. FSD could also do the trick, although I believe that’s more likely in 2021. Tesla Energy generating significant profits would be a catalyst. Or it could just be excellent execution that so improves margins that profitability rises.

3. In about two years I predict the market will assign $100 billion to Tesla automotive, $50 billion to the near term potential of Tesla Network (robotaxis) and $50 billion for Tesla Energy.

So over the next 24 months the SP should rise from 300 to at least 1200. The only thing I can guarantee is that it won’t do so in a straight line.

As I said previously, my prior comment was referring to technical analysis (price levels and movements without regard to cause or fundamentals). The following is my fundamental, long term breakdown of Tesla's value:

Make a probability weighted estimate and then discount this sum back from about 10 years in the future. The current market cap seems very reasonable (or undervalued) given all the future potential. Lot of these have wide ranges because the market size and Tesla's success in it is TBD, and perhaps under/over- estimated. And there may be yet unknown additional categories (like Amazon in the early years).

- Global Auto Manufacturer: 50-200B

- Tesla Network (Autonomous Uber): 50-400B

- Tesla carOS (ala Android, iOS, for media consumption, games, apps, ads): 50-400B

- Tesla Energy: 20-200B

- Tesla Architectural Solar*: 20-200B

*Solar roof shingles are just the start; eventually windows and many other building material will have integrated solar.

 

[Nocturnal]

Wasn't that a huge loss though?

From when I sold to when I bought back in, not so bad. But it's dwarfed by the total gains from the past few days. I knew this situation was possible, but I wanted to hedge against a steep dip. I don't worry about individual sells/buys, but rather my entire holdings.