Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TradingInvest]

I think that strategy is called GF4.

Definitely. GF4 is the true answer. But the earliest time GF4 could start full production is 24 months from now. Start construction early 2020, start production mid 2021, ramp up near end of 2022. GF4 won't match GF3 construction speed. Regulatory alone would at least slow it down by a few months.

So there is a 18 months window Tesla might offer a 200 mile Model 3 at lower price.

 

[Artful Dodger]

FCA stock was up 7,5% today on news of a possible merger with PSA:

Fiat Chrysler reportedly in talks to merge with Peugeot owner - CNN

Again?!

Fiat Chrysler turned down Peugeot's merger offer - report | CarAdvice

Mar 25, 2019 - "The PSA Group reportedly approached Fiat Chrysler (FCA) about a merger as early as this year's Detroit motor show in January, only to be rebuffed by the American-Italian company. Sources have told The Wall Street Journal the offer was rejected by FCA, and talks about a possible combination have not recommenced."​

 

[MC3OZ]

A few pages back someone questioned when Tesla might build a $25k car. I personally hope never. Tesla should continue to be a "premium" brand. What I would like to see considered is for Elon and some VCs to start a new company, TeslaLite (not my preferred name, but a working title). The company could be what VW is to Porsche, a lower cost high volume brand. By the way, is Porsche and VW one company when it comes to the $7500 tax credit? That's one of my main reason for suggesting TeslaLite as a separate start-up company. During the ramp-up the tax credit would help keep the cost to consumers low.

I would suggest starting with a small hatchback that would compete with the likes of a Civic. TeslaLite could outsource their batteries, motors, BMS etc. from another company. I'll let you guess who.

TeslaLite could make a much cheaper car without all of the features of the 3. Maybe a base car with a 200mi range. Maybe owners of TeslaLite could pay Tesla to buy into the Supercharger network. Maybe Tesla service centers could be authorized to help TeslaLite warranty services for fee. Which current Tesla options would be available on the car for an extra cost is above my pay grade.

With all of the expertises available from Tesla, maybe this could be done more quickly and at a lower cost than some of the legacy manufacturers. Could one of the closed plants back east be used?

TeslaLite could be kept a private company. Elon would like that.

Let me know how far off base this idea is. THX

I think Tesla can build a 25K car and continue to be a premium brand, the high end Plaid cars will define the brand.
The closest example is Daimler, they make a lot of different modes including Trucks, people still know that a Premium Merc is Premium.

Even in a world of Robo-Taxi's a compact 25K Tesla is value for short urban journeys with 1-2 passengers, possibly takes less parking space and is cheaper to build and run.. that lowers fleet costs and operating costs and I think it speeds up the build out of the fleet.

When Tesla is making 20M cars per year they are definitely making at least 5 Million compact models at an all in cost of 25K including FSD.
Keep in mind for some European cities, and many parts a Asia, a compact lower priced car is exactly what consumers want.
If Tesla doesn't build it someone else will...

I see Tesla China having a role in designing and building the Compact car, that makes perfect sense to me.

If they want to attempt to game the Tax Credit a full on partnership with a Chinese partner is the only way to do it, in fact Tesla could own as little as 25% of the final venture, supply parts to the venture, and support Supercharging, Service and the Tesla Network for the finished cars.

Essentially the other JV partners are just providing capital and taking an appropriate share of profits.

I haven't been keen on a JV before, but IMO this type of JV accelerates the mission and done right possibly accelerates the mission by up to a decade. Everyone wins, Tesla and the partners make money, and consumers get cheaper cars and lower Robo-Taxi fares.

 

[TradingInvest]

TSLA bonds are at ATH yet stock continues to be wildly manipulated

Bond can be manipulated. They short bond too.

When bond is low, I should rather say they drove down bond price, they make it look like a bankruptcy concern.
When bond if fine, they say it's an over valuation situation. Active shorts are saying it's a fraud.

If long investors don't play their game, they can't do much.

 

[keydiver]

Tesla has awoken sleeping giants.

I really hate this over-used expression. The big car companies aren't "sleeping giants". IMO, they are fat, lazy, over-confident morons, who are too top heavy with management that can't won't change unless forced to, and saddled with the burdens of unions who don't want EV's, and huge investments in factories and equipment to only build ICE vehicles.

 

[Tslynk67]

So, Elon just donated a million trees to that 20 million trees campaign... 5% of the entire total.

Elon Musk on Twitter

LOVE IT!

Love the comment below (as did 43k others, it seems...)

 

[bzbee]

Chris Harris from Top Gear is in love with the M3 or, at least experiencing some cognitive dissonance

Full:

 

[TradingInvest]

I think Tesla can build a 25K car and continue to be a premium brand, the high end Plaid cars will define the brand.
The closest example is Daimler, they make a lot of different modes including Trucks, people still know that a Premium Merc is Premium.

Even in a world of Robo-Taxi's a compact 25K Tesla is value for short urban journeys with 1-2 passengers, possibly takes less parking space and is cheaper to build and run.. that lowers fleet costs and operating costs and I think it speeds up the build out of the fleet.

When Tesla is making 20M cars per year they are definitely making at least 5 Million compact models at an all in cost of 25K including FSD.
Keeping in mind for some European cities and many parts a Asia a compact lower priced car is exactly what consumers want.
If Tesla doesn't build it someone else will...

I see Tesla China having a role in designing and building the Compact car, that makes perfect sense to me.

If they want to attempt to game the Tax Credit a full on partnership with a Chinese partner is the only way to do it, in fact Tesla could own as little as 25% of the final venture, supply parts to the venture, and support Supercharging, Service and the Tesla Network for the finished cars.

Essentially the other JV partners are just providing capital and taking an appropriate share of profits.

I haven't been keen on a JV before, but IMO this type of JV accelerates the mission and done right possibly accelerates the mission by up to a decade. Everyone wins, Tesla and the partners make money, and consumers get cheaper cars and lower Robo-Taxi fares.

Tesla can't cut cost that fast. All I can see is Model 3 cost may drop 20~30% in the next 3 years while improving quality and features. They could remove great audio, remove glass roof, reduce range, those won't cut cost by a lot. I don't think Tesla will ever sell $25k cars. The $35k Model 3 is equivalent to $25k ICE cars once gasoline cost is considered.

 

[bhtooefr]

Chris Harris from Top Gear is in love with the M3 or, at least experiencing some cognitive dissonance

Worth noting that this is actually an old piece that originally aired in June, and I'm sure we discussed it at that time. Looks like the BBC just got around to uploading it to YouTube a couple days ago.

 

[Navin]

FWIW- I bought a ton of short term options on this retrace!

 

[TradingInvest]

Dana Hall is obviously trying to mislead people. I suspect she is connected with shorts. Hopefully someday one of them will step forward and confess.

 

[Beltsbear]

Tesla can't cut cost that fast. All I can see is Model 3 cost may drop 20~30% in the next 3 years while improving quality and features. They could remove great audio, remove glass roof, reduce range, those won't cut cost by a lot. I don't think Tesla will ever sell $25k cars. The $35k Model 3 is equivalent to $25k ICE cars once gasoline cost is considered.

Most stuff should not be removed. Audio? The $35k car has the right system for a low cost car. Any worse and it’s not as good as cheap ice cars.

the biggest thing is the glass roof. Then just work on making the car for less money and very slowly lower price. $2000 off for no glass roof.

 

[MC3OZ]

Tesla can't cut cost that fast. All I can see is Model 3 cost may drop 20~30% in the next 3 years while improving quality and features. They could remove great audio, remove glass roof, reduce range, those won't cut cost by a lot. I don't think Tesla will ever sell $25k cars. The $35k Model 3 is equivalent to $25k ICE cars once gasoline cost is considered.

The main savings are a smaller size, and a smaller battery... by compact, I mean no bigger than a Smart car or a Mini.
With the smaller size also a smaller motor, less premium interior, it is a 5-7 year project in that time battery costs will drop substantially..
It also needs very high volumes and a well developed efficient production process.

I also think Tesla will have scope to price FSD software in these cars accordingly, perhaps the FSD price remains high, but the car itself is lower priced.Or FSD is bundled, and Tesla makes a lower margin on DSD.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I think Tesla can build a 25K car and continue to be a premium brand, the high end Plaid cars will define the brand.
The closest example is Daimler, they make a lot of different modes including Trucks, people still know that a Premium Merc is Premium.

Even in a world of Robo-Taxi's a compact 25K Tesla is value for short urban journeys with 1-2 passengers, possibly takes less parking space and is cheaper to build and run.. that lowers fleet costs and operating costs and I think it speeds up the build out of the fleet.

When Tesla is making 20M cars per year they are definitely making at least 5 Million compact models at an all in cost of 25K including FSD.
Keep in mind for some European cities, and many parts a Asia, a compact lower priced car is exactly what consumers want.
If Tesla doesn't build it someone else will...

I see Tesla China having a role in designing and building the Compact car, that makes perfect sense to me.

If they want to attempt to game the Tax Credit a full on partnership with a Chinese partner is the only way to do it, in fact Tesla could own as little as 25% of the final venture, supply parts to the venture, and support Supercharging, Service and the Tesla Network for the finished cars.

Essentially the other JV partners are just providing capital and taking an appropriate share of profits.

I haven't been keen on a JV before, but IMO this type of JV accelerates the mission and done right possibly accelerates the mission by up to a decade. Everyone wins, Tesla and the partners make money, and consumers get cheaper cars and lower Robo-Taxi fares.

I seriously doubt that you will EVER see a $25K Tesla with FSD. Once true driverless FSD is available it very well could be a $25K option all by itself. I really think the very long term goal for them is to discourage private ownership in favor of a cheap, easy, efficient robotaxi network. This fits the mission statement to a T I think.

Get 'em while you still can!

Dan

 

[Pras]

Dana Hall is obviously trying to mislead people. I suspect she is connected with shorts. Hopefully someday one of them will step forward and confess.

I have never liked Danahull. But some Tesla bulls like Ross G and Steve Jobs ghost (Omar) give her lots of credence.
To me Dana Hull is worse than Russ from latimes, as Dana hides under a falls pretense of balanced views.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Most stuff should not be removed. Audio? The $35k car has the right system for a low cost car. Any worse and it’s not as good as cheap ice cars.

the biggest thing is the glass roof. Then just work on making the car for less money and very slowly lower price. $2000 off for no glass roof.

At this point a metal roof may very well be more expensive for them to make than the glass roof.

Dan

 

[TradingInvest]

I really hate this over-used expression. The big car companies aren't "sleeping giants". IMO, they are fat, lazy, over-confident morons, who are too top heavy with management that can't won't change unless forced to, and saddled with the burdens of unions who don't want EV's, and huge investments in factories and equipment to only build ICE vehicles.

At this time ICE companies know what's happening. They know EV makes more sense. They just want to make fat profit for as long as they can. VW said they will dramatically increase their ICE SUV sales to make more profit.

Toyota makes 2 billion dollars per month net profit from ICE vehicles. If they switch to EV, they are doomed. Same for VW.
We used to call them morons, they are not. They are just greedy people running greedy companies.

 

[AlMc]

So, would you rather be investing in solar roofs and battery backups or coal? America's largest private coal miner files for bankruptcy

 

[hacer]

a short has to post 102-105% of the mark-to-market value of the shares sold, in cash (either via real cash or via margin borrowing) - and also has to secure the borrowed shares within ~5 trading days (which I agree is too long and too lax).
...

A RETAIL short has to post some cash collateral in addition to all of the money they collect. Retail shorts do not do anything to locate or deliver the shares - that is done for them by their broker. Thus retail shorts don't have any control over the delivery of stock sold short.

Any broker dealer (this includes many hedge funds) doesn't post ANY collateral for any specific trades. They are obligated to have large amounts of equity in holding for their exchange membership but it's unrelated to their specific trading. They must pay for all net stock purchases with cash on the settlement date (no leeway for that) and they are supposed to (but have great leeway to do otherwise) deliver any securities for which they have net selling (short of otherwise) on the settlement date. If the broker-dealer actually does deliver borrowed (from some other entity) shares, then they usually must provide collateral (and pay interest) to whomever they borrowed the shares from. But if they cover their short 2 trading days later without having ever borrowed the shares, they will net out without ever having borrowed any shares or ever posting any kind of collateral and would only have gone 2 days FTD for which there are no repercussions at all. They did have the cash from the sale available to them for those 2 days which could be used for repo trading for example.

Who is it that uses manipulative trading to drive the stock price down by let say selling 30,000 shares short in a minute or two?

Spoiler

It is NOT retail shorts.

 

[Singer3000]

The expected delivery times in Europe for the Model 3 Standard Range Plus jumped to February next year. The LR and P can still be delivered in December.

And the US says 5-9 weeks for both SR+ and LR. And there’s only 9 weeks left of the year... Seems like they’ve learnt the lesson of last year’s Q1. Stuffing the US market to the gills this month and slowing the taps to most of Europe. And then reverse in Q1 when the US credit has expired.

China by the way has November for LR and early 2020 for SR+. Ozzies and Kiwis can still buy a Model 3 for Christmas