Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

Tesla to launch operations in Israel

Tesla is putting out ads for an Operations Manager in Israel.

I've never realized that Israel didn't have Tesla yet. Anyone wants to wager how big the market will be? There's a lot of potential for a solar powered transport there.

 

[MFranc123]

True, but presumably the options were bought when still out of the money when delta was lower. As price moves higher market makers will have to scale up their hedge.

The sheer number of open call options shows they are not all hedged 1-1 with stock though.
It looks like open call options corresponding to c.70 million shares. There are only 179 million shares outstanding and most are held by long term investors.

I do think the majority of share volume every day is likely option related. Expect this is just the same shares changing hands multiple times though while most shares are held long term.

Sorry, I misread a post I was replying to, and thought we were discussing people buying the $10 calls. You're absolutely right.

 

[Fact Checking]

The sheer number of open call options shows they are not all hedged 1-1 with stock though.
It looks like open call options corresponding to c.70 million shares. There are only 179 million shares outstanding and most are held by long term investors.

Total calls for November 15 is 158,064 - i.e. around 16 million shares-equivalent. Most of them are in the money.

Total open interest for all call options across all expiries is 686,060, corresponding to the ~70 million shares figure you mentioned - but there's a lot of deep out of the money call options among them, in the $400-$700 range.

 

[Tslynk67]

Is it just me or do I find myself dumber and dumber the longer I read posts in this forum? Puts, calls, options, charts, deltas, max pain, bulls, bears, etc. etc.

I just bought the stock and hope I make some money to lower the cost of my Model Y purchase. Is that a bad thing? You guys and gals are WAY smarter than me! I fell like I am just along for the ride. LOL!

Dan

I don't know much, but I knew nothing until I bought $TSLA, then I found this thread (back in 2016) and have learned quite a lot. Not only about the market and all that, but shitloads about other stuff too - central, adjacent, tangental and totally OT matters.

As Fred said right yesterday, the quality of posting here is second-to-none, I feel privilledged to be party to it, and I thank those that contribute in such depth and with such insight.

 

[Tslynk67]

This might be one of the catalysts behind today's pre-market optimism:

"Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois raised the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $400 (from $300) while maintaining a Buy rating."​

A curious history!

 

[flabellina]

Looks like Elon has landed in... Berlin!
Morten Grove on Twitter

 

[Alphacrux]

Looks like Elon has landed in... Berlin!
Morten Grove on Twitter

GF4 guessing

 

[Don TLR]

I used our on board compressor and plug kit to 'fix' both of our Model X flats on the road here in very, very rural Idaho. But one of the flats had such a large puncture hole in it from the basalt rock they use on the roads here in the winter that I had to use a couple plugs and still needed to stop every few miles to keep adding air just to get to town to get it patched (we live 50 miles from town). We intend to use our Tesla pickup for expedition RV trips........loaded up and off the grid, and we intend to use it for heavy hauling as a work truck too. I have patched and repaired tires 50 miles off the road system in Alaska and all over remote wilderness areas in the Lower 48 states on the many 4 wheel drive vehicles I have owned. And I have had enough tires damaged along the way that needed to be patched or replaced instead - especially in my F350's when hauling construction materials, that there will always be a spare tire with us where we travel.

Did you take your spare tire off your Jeep to save space and weight since it is a 'waste'? The 35" spare and two 5 gallon jerry jugs are still on the back of my Jeep even though I run top of the line 35" Toyos on my Jeep. There will be a spare tire on our Tesla pickup even if I have to fabricate the first Tesla Pickup spare tire bracket myself.

Yes I did remove spare tire but on a trail jeep that was heavily modified. We've used bailing wire and a bunch of plugs to get a vehicle off the trail. With my current setup and thinking about my comment I guess I wouldn't travel to Baja or someplace far and very remote without a spare on that very slim chance it can't be repaired.

 

[RobStark]

I've never realized that Israel didn't have Tesla yet. Anyone wants to wager how big the market will be? There's a lot of potential for a solar powered transport there.

In 2018 in Israel

BMW sold 3312 cars
Mercedes sold 3599 cars
Porsche sold 224 cars
Total Market is 267,490

Israel has a population approximately the size of Switzerland with a GDP per capita similar to Belgium. Israel has a purchase tax on ICEv of 83% and on BEVs it is 8%. Israel should be a market that Tesla should be able to expand and grab ~15% market share.


Israel - Flash report, Sales volume, 2018 - MarkLines Automotive Industry Portal

 

[Artful Dodger]

According to Morten on twitter
Morten Grove on Twitter

Looks like Elon is headed for Europe. At least his jet is.

Berlin Schönefeld it is. Perhaps @Lycanthrope (and Angela Merkel) will get their Christmas gifts early.

Cheers!

 

[heltok]

Tesla are pretty good at attracting top talent:
Autonomous Industry Insights

 

[elasalle]

Interesting, market as a whole is down, even BABA with it's Billions in sales on Singles-Day is down preMarket. ... Yet $TSLA is up +
$3.21 ...

 

[aubreymcfato]

Not sure this Chinese review (now English subbed) has been posted here yet:

First Shangai-produced Tesla review.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Does anyone know whether that's a favorite strategy for hedge funds or other big investors to enter big positions?

There's very little transparency wrt Options settlements. However, there is one particular 'data leak' that I track from NASDAQ: revisions to daily trading volume.

The theory is that days with large revisions represent bulk transfer of shares (ie: exercising options) rather than simply 'cashing out'.

Yes, there have been some dramatic revision days since Oct 23, 2019 (data file available upon request via DM):

So, a pronounced step change in trading volume revisions occurred last Monday, with normal revisions in the 10s of thousands becoming in the 100s of thousands. Did a big investor(s) decide to build a position in TSLA via derivatives? When was the 10-Q out?

Cheers!

 

[Tslynk67]

Not sure this Chinese review (now English subbed) has been posted here yet:

First Shangai-produced Tesla review.

It has, but it's worth reposting and everyone here should watch it.

 

[Unpilot]

Interesting, market as a whole is down, even BABA with it's Billions in sales on Singles-Day is down preMarket. ... Yet $TSLA is up +
$3.21 ...

It would seem somebody knows something ........up $3.72 now.

edit: up 5.86

 

[Tslynk67]

Berlin Schönefeld it is. Perhaps @Lycanthrope (and Angela Merkel) will get their Christmas gifts early.

Cheers!

GF3 official opening, MP reveal and GF4 announcement would take us to ATH IMO. NAA.

 

[Artful Dodger]

This might be one of the catalysts behind today's pre-market optimism:

"Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois raised the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $400 (from $300) while maintaining a Buy rating."​

Tesla (TSLA) – Jefferies raised its price target on the automaker’s stock to $400 per share from $300 a share, noting gross margin levels that are consistent with sustained profitability.

 

[Unpilot]

Tesla (TSLA) – Jefferies raised its price target on the automaker’s stock to $400 per share from $300 a share, noting gross margin levels that are consistent with sustained profitability.

Nice to see the price target raised....but they are off by a factor of 10

 

[HG Wells]

It would seem somebody knows something ........up $3.72 now.

edit: up 5.86

I think they know where Elons plane is.

NOTE: Didn't its location use to be blocked ?