Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Lots of questions, like what will the Dealer training be like?

That one is easy. One certified technician required for the dealer to become certified. Once certified, always certified even if the one certified technician quits. (That's how Toyota did it with the Prius).

 

[techmaven]

Nissan LEAF has sold 138,653 units so far in the USA.

Nissan might beat Ford to 200k PEV USA sales.

Well, I am hoping that GM pushes hard for a revisit to the inventive. After all, Ford is likely riding on the coattails of GM, using LG cells and scaling that GM has been pushing in their supply chain. So as GM is running out of incentives, Ford as a laggard gets a reward for being late.

GM has the most to lose as they launch their next BEV platform without any federal tax credit. And hopefully this new version has a common pool instead of this per-manufacturer nonsense. Give it a calendar date expiration combined with market share trigger.

 

[JRP3]

No visible seam to the hood, so likely no frunk.

I see seam lines for the hood.

 

[RobStark]

Well, I am hoping that GM pushes hard for a revisit to the inventive. After all, Ford is likely riding on the coattails of GM, using LG cells and scaling that GM has been pushing in their supply chain. So as GM is running out of incentives, Ford as a laggard gets a reward for being late.

GM has the most to lose as they launch their next BEV platform without any federal tax credit. And hopefully this new version has a common pool instead of this per-manufacturer nonsense. Give it a calendar date expiration combined with market share trigger.

That would make sense but the recent Schumer proposal raised the per manufacture ceiling to 600k units.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I see seam lines for the hood.

Ah, yes; my mistake. I was expecting hood lines more on the side of the vehicle, but they skim right along the middle head light bar... thing.

 

[Alphacrux]

Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days As A Transport Fuel Are Numbered

 

[dww12]

A worthy competitor to Tesla and no doubt we will be seeing Ford market this in TV commercials and even Nascar races(Ford races the Mustang name plate). Good for the consumer.

Lots of questions, like what will the Dealer training be like? Whats the production goal?

Ford buyers have been trained to think EVs are stupid, now Ford thinks they can sell their customers an EV? This car has worse specs than the Y, period. So Ford will only have buyers from the pool of buyers who REFUSE to cross shop Tesla, yet WANT an EV. That has not gone so well for Jaguar and Audi, or Porsche.

 

[AlMc]

There once was a young man named Elon
More recently monikered Treelon
He built lots of cars
And planned trips to Mars
And now has another big deal on

OK @jerry33 , you are now off the hook for any TSLA SP drop....We have a new poet who takes on that burden.

 

[RobStark]

That has not gone so well for Jaguar and Audi, or Porsche.

In the US.

In Europe they are doing quite well.

 

[HG Wells]

Not experienced with BEV's... So sure, I would expect a good build quality, alignments etc, but the utility will likely suck compared to a Tesla and the hardware/software itegration will be some kind of Windows 95 throwback...

AND what exactly is wrong with Windows 95 ?

 

[JRP3]

Major Battery Storage Facility Planned in Goleta

Destined for the far side of the parking lot outside M.Special and Habitat for Humanity’s ReStore, the 60-megawatt set of lithium-ion Megapacks — utility-scale batteries that have 60 percent more energy density than the Powerpack — would store power and return it to the grid when needed. Though the installation uses 41 of Tesla’s Megapacks, which are about 23 feet long, 8 feet high, and 5 feet wide, the installer is AltaGas, a Canadian company with U.S. headquarters in Virginia, which provides natural gas to several East Coast cities and has expanded into the “clean energy” field.

 

[Sancho]

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say most people that drive fords will probably choose a ford EV if prices are similar. Brand loyalty is a powerful thing.

And thats ok. Eventually every car sold will be an EV, and the battery costs will fall enough that most car manufacturers will have cars of a price range & mileage range that is within the same ballpark, even if at a noticeable disadvantage to Tesla specs.

Tesla is never going to be able to serve the entire global demand for autos, but it definitely can serve a decent fraction of it with high margin vehicles with the best performance and value for money, and with the best autonomy options.

If Tesla “only” ends up with ~5% of the vehicle market because most of the existing big auto companies successfully transitions to EVs, then Tesla will both have succeeded in It’s core mission AND be generating ginormous profits leading to a massive market cap (even with “only” a few million cars shipped annually.)

(At this stage, Tesla ‘only’ shipping a few million cars a year is my pessimistic scenario, which would still eventuate in significant share price appreciation)

=====

One aspect to the ford announcement is that it should accelerate their unit volume so that it reaches 200k EV cap quicker, which is good news for,Tesla. The moment all the major US car makers are no longer receiving $7.5k per EV, but every foreign carmaker selling in the USA still does, the odds of the EV tax credit rules changing in favour of US manufactures is close to 100% certain.

I agree: Tesla doesn’t need to dominate the EV market to succeed, and generally competition will be good for Tesla and grow the pie.

And I’m trying to take off my Tesla-colored glasses and give Ford the benefit of the doubt. But I really can’t see how Ford does ok here.

Brand loyalty for Ford? For trucks maybe, but for cars? Ford has been hemorrhaging sales of cars for years, so much so that they have announced they are abandoning the entire segment and just selling SUVs and trucks.

The fairly small base of Ford car “loyalists” buy 25k gas guzzlers. How many are going to want to buy an EV? Of those, how many are going to want to pay twice as much as they normally do? Of those left to consider the Mustang, how many will look at Tesla M3 and conclude it’s a better EV choice?

 

[jerry33]

AND what exactly is wrong with Windows 95 ?

Nothing that isn't wrong with later versions.

 

[bhtooefr]

Did anyone point out the modest dimensions of the Y?

We don't actually know the Y's dimensions for certain, just that it'll be 10% bigger than the 3 (and signs are that it is slightly longer, but mostly taller).

That's not actually small by European standards. On some environmentalist blogs I follow, there was noise being made in Berlin about banning SUVs after a fatal crash involving a Porsche Macan, which is likely in the same size ballpark as the Model Y (not as long, and lower, but a bit wider, most likely).

So, CUVs (which, contrary to earlier discussion, are SUV-like vehicles that aren't set up for offroad, due to fundamentally being tall cars - exactly what the Models X and Y are) are definitely being targeted in addition to actual SUVs.

That's one of those end goals that just isn't practical. If you want people to embrace being greener, don't tell them they need to all drive Smart Cars.

That said, Smarts are actually terrible for emissions - they can reduce parking space requirements (although in practice legal considerations mean they just take a full-size space for one car), but not emissions, due to their being too short to have good aerodynamics.

But, talking specifically of a non-American urban context (because American cities that grew significantly after the 1940s are really suburban, not urban), there are other options like mass transit and cycling and even walking if things are set up right. That's I think part of the point that a lot of people are going for.

I dunno, for the price and with the specs listed and fed rebate, I think it's not bad. My question is how many are they planning on producing?

Model Y of course beats it, haha.

And Model Y has the Supercharger network, and as much as people complain about Tesla service, Ford service on a "weird" product can be absolutely atrocious (I know someone that just ditched a C-Max Energi after a repair took several months of trial and error, for a Model 3).

 

[RobStark]

I agree: Tesla doesn’t need to dominate the EV market to succeed, and generally competition will be good for Tesla and grow the pie.

And I’m trying to take off my Tesla-colored glasses and give Ford the benefit of the doubt. But I really can’t see how Ford does ok here.

Brand loyalty for Ford? For trucks maybe, but for cars? Ford has been hemorrhaging sales of cars for years, so much so that they have announced they are abandoning the entire segment and just selling SUVs and trucks.

The fairly small base of Ford car “loyalists” buy 25k gas guzzlers. How many are going to want to buy an EV? Of those, how many are going to want to pay twice as much as they normally do? Of those left to consider the Mustang, how many will look at Tesla M3 and conclude it’s a better EV choice?

The Mach E is a crossover hatchback thingy.

Ford sells plenty of those. And a fair number of Mustangs. As far as two door sports coupes/ sports cars goes.

Ford abandoned sedans. Mach E is not a sedan.

Ford has also sold about 140k PEVs in the US. More PHEV Energis than Focus BEVs but still has a pool of PEV buyers.

Buying a Ford with Federal Tax credit vs GM PEV without Tax credit seems like a no brainer.

And there are plenty of folks without a Tesla service center within 25 miles. Pretty much every American lives within 25 miles of a Ford dealer.

 

[bhtooefr]

Yeah, but if the dealer doesn't know how to fix it, and when they escalate to engineering, they don't know how to fix it, are slow to get back to the dealer with things to try, and then don't approve the things they suggest, it doesn't matter how close the Ford dealer is.

 

[SPadival]

decide whether Unsworth deserves a single dollar.

I am willing to give him a signed dollar

oh.. and Vern’s lawyer Lin Wood (@LLinWood) | Twitter is big Trumper

 

[RobStark]

That's not actually small by European standards. On some environmentalist blogs I follow, there was noise being made in Berlin about banning SUVs after a fatal crash involving a Porsche Macan, which is likely in the same size ballpark as the Model Y (not as long, and lower, but a bit wider, most likely).

The chance of electric crossovers being banned in Berlin with Gigafactory Berlin pumping out Model Ys is approaching Zero.

 

[RobStark]

Yeah, but if the dealer doesn't know how to fix it, and when they escalate to engineering, they don't know how to fix it, are slow to get back to the dealer with things to try, and then don't approve the things they suggest, it doesn't matter how close the Ford dealer is.

10 years ago most Ford dealers didn't know how to repair aluminum bodies.

Now, virtually all of them do.

Same for BEVs in the not too distant future.

 

[Sancho]

In order to compete with first mover Tesla, Ford had to do one of two things:

1. Offer a better deal. Say, a car with 200 mile range for $32k.

2. Offer a car that has better styling. Or at least different styling.

The Mustang appears to be a very commendable effort. But by merely copying Tesla on styling and price, it’s a fail.