Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

If Ford is serious, and let's assume that they are, it would be easy to require each dealership to add a fast charging station. Hell, there's a Ford dealership in almost every town.

True, but many are in inconvenient locations for travelers, the charging stalls may only be accessible during business hours, the dealers may not want to pony up for the $125K installation plus ongoing electricity bills. Fast charging at dealerships is questionable at best. (Of course, there will be some that are winning locations, but the majority aren't). Of course, I suppose they could overcome this with a $7,000 surcharge for fast charger use.

 

[nativewolf]

If Ford is serious, and let's assume that they are, it would be easy to require each dealership to add a fast charging station. Hell, there's a Ford dealership in almost every town.

Not so many in small towns, the dealers are consolidating and closing smaller dealerships left and right. I know of 3 within 30mins of me that closed. That said, it is a good idea. Thus, won't happen.

 

[scaesare]

When they get full self driving working then we will have cars driven by toddlers in their sleep. Until then it's better if we actually focus on the road and not on the touch screen in the bouncing car.

Way to miss the point.

 

[sparcs]

Time will tell, but the Mustang tie-in might be a mistake. The Mustang is something from the past, first introduced 55 years ago. They could have made this CUV look better without the Mustang styling cues. And I'm skeptical about the amount of respect this poseur Mustang will get. The VW ID3 looks good and it looks fresh and it looks like a car for the future. Hopefully the final designs for VW ID models that will be sold in the US will look as good.

It's great for tesla investors though. Brings more attention to Tesla. Why buy a knockoff when you can buy the real thing?

Ford's mistake in not creating any of their own EV brand identity is Tesla's gain.

 

[LeChef92]

Hello everyone

Usually I'm just a reader here but I would like to share a few thoughts and experiences I made recently.
Currently I am in Shanghai. Luckily I was able to convince my better half to spend a day to travel to the GF3 and check if we can walk around it.

GF3 Visit
How to get there from Shanghai centre (our hotel is close to Yu Yuan Garden, approx. 10 minutes from the Bund):
We went there by Metro/Subway (I recommend to download MetroMan App) and Taxi:

As a foreigner it’s probably impossible to go there just by public transport. There is a Bus stop 10 minutes away, but no way will you find the right line.
Dishui Lake is probably the closest Metro station.

From City Centre to GF 3 it took us 1 ¾ hours.
And now to the interesting part: pictures

Picture below the fence (10 cm gap). East side.

Model 3 parked on the east end of the factory.

There are approx. 10 Model 3 on the west side, right next to the big gait on the south west corner of the main building, It seems this is the End of the assembly line.
On the other side are at least 60 Model 3 parked, I saw white, blue and black model 3.

Northeast corner

Northwest corner

Southeast corner

You can walk around the factory, but you need good footwear. I recommend to start in the North West corner, the whole west side has a sidewalk, some parts of it still under construction. But you can walk on the street there. On the south side is a nice small forest, it seems the construction workers had more than one party there considering the amount of empty bottles. The road on the south side goes through this small forest. On the east side along the fence you will have to walk at the edge of a rice field. It’s muddy and if you reach the northeast corner you will meet a pretty surprised security guard because you will end on the wrong side of the parking checkpoint (this parking lot is outside the ID controlled area, no worries, security seems to be on point. All entrances are guarded).

We haven’t thought about our journey back to the metro, luckily we found a woman, waiting for her boyfriend who works for Tesla, she ordered a Taxi for us (thanks again lady in red). We had two hours to walk around the factory, inclusive taking pictures, filming and discussing what we saw.

On our way back we surpassed a model 3 on a truck, 3 minutes from GF3. White, with areos, no Chinese or western type marking (the P3D thing) visible.

I have a few videos from each side but my VPN can’t handle it and I’m a noob in video editing (faces, No. plates visible). But if you have specific questions I might be able to post screenshots.

Even more OT:
Who I am:
• Young mechanical engineer from Switzerland (worked for a CIGS solar start-up and an exhaust gas filter producer for ships, power plants and such)
• Indirect investor in tsla (my brother manages my father’s portfolio and I am like a technical consultant). Our investment strategy regarding tsla: Buy and hold.

Currently I am travelling the world. I will share my personal views and experiences I made along the way. So far besides the GF3 visit I had the following impressions:
1. Thailand
EVs are completely inexistent there. In two weeks I only saw an i8 and many prius, but no
EVs. I have talked to the family of my wife’s mother, nobody has heard of Tesla so far. An owner of an Audi R8 who i met in a bar knows Tesla because of the Nürnburgring fight with Porsche but has never considered to buy an EV.
The market for the cybrtrk would be huge here, it felt like every fourth car was a pick up. They use the pick-ups for everything. We even saw somebody sleeping in a hammock which was mounted above the bed during rush-hour on the highway in Bangkok.
2. China
We are currently in Shanghai, what a difference to Bangkok: I haven’t seen an ICE scooter until now (6th day here), all are EV, it’s awesome. One thing has to be mentioned: Those things are super-fast, their riders don’t care about traffic rules and they are silent, too silent. I already saw two accidents where a scooter driver crashed into a pedestrian. On the positive side: They are used to plug in their vehicle from young age and range anxiety shouldn’t be a problem here. Even more so that they usually make even less km in the city then we do in Europe or US. Also the air is clear (probably we are super lucky because the plants have been shut down because of the international china import expo in shanghai). I asked the waiter in our hotel and he told me we should really enjoy every day here as long as the sky is blue, therefore the clean air is probably just luck.

Tesla sightings in Shanghai (driven on the road, not GF3 related):
2x model 3
7x model S (3x pre facelift)
4x model X (two which are owned by a hotel whose name I unfortunately can’t remember…)

Our journey will lead us to the following destinations:
China: Xi'an, Beijing
Mongolia: Ulaanbaatar
South Korea: Soul, Busan
Japan: Tokyo, Kyoto, Kobe, Osaka
Canada: Vancouver, Vancouver Island
USA: Seattle, LA, Grand Canyon, Las Vegas, SF
Costa Rica

I will try to post on interesting things and topics regarding EV and PV.
My English isn't too good, if you have any suggestions on improvement feel free to tell me.

Stay long!
LeChef

 

[Alphacrux]

Great article. Worth a read.

Here’s the actual report:
https://docfinder.bnpparibas-am.com/api/files/1094E5B9-2FAA-47A3-805D-EF65EAD09A7F

 

[hacer]

If that's the price its not bad. Of course, we don't know how for sure what the range is and much they are going to charge for options. Could escalate quickly. Will see, I like the interior though. Clearly they know Tesla's minimalist design is the way to go and they are actually designing it like an EV. copying Tesla.

FTFY.

 

[JustMe]

I don’t want to over-generalize here, but is the typical Ford buyer a likely candidate for early adopter EV switching? And a $50k car is a luxury car. How many Ford buyers are going to pony up for that?

Take a look at which cars are being traded in for Teslas. How many Fords do you see?

Well I traded in a 16 year old Mustang for a Model S. I never really considered buying a luxury vehicle before. The Model S just blows away my Mustang in every way. If Ford puts out a compelling EV that beats its own ICEs off the line, it could do well. And since the Mustang is known as the pony car, well...

 

[Todd Burch]

Serious multi-day battle for $350 going on here...

 

[Unpilot]

Here’s the actual report:
https://docfinder.bnpparibas-am.com/api/files/1094E5B9-2FAA-47A3-805D-EF65EAD09A7F

Key take away from executive summary.

Indeed, and as shown in Figure 1, our model says that for the same capital outlay today, wind and solar energy would produce 6.2-7x more useful energy for EVs than would oil priced at $60/bbl

 

[ZeApelido]

I received an invite. Why, I have no idea. I was on the 3 pre-reveal waitlist, I bought a P3D and I subsequently purchased FSD when put on sale for $2k. Somehow I doubt that or the Instagram photos of my car or my 45 “devout” Instagram followers (whichIncludes all the hot 22-year old women who inexplicably want to date this oldish retired guy. ;-) ) have come to the attention of Tesla‘s PR department.

Unfortunately I’m “stuck” in Phuket, Thailand and won’t make it back for the festivities. It’s a shame I cant transfer the invite!

Just say Phuket, and fly back for the unveiling.

 

[UncaNed]

I don’t want to over-generalize here, but is the typical Ford buyer a likely candidate for early adopter EV switching? And a $50k car is a luxury car. How many Ford buyers are going to pony up for that?

Take a look at which cars are being traded in for Teslas. How many Fords do you see?

Other side of the coin, Ford making an EV will legitimize EV's at least a little in the minds of Ford folks, and is sure to get them thinking about it and checking out Tesla, whereas they might never have considered an EV before, moving the long arc of auto buyers just a little bit towards EV's with no negative side for Tesla. And for free.

 

[Unpilot]

Watching this battle for treefiddy brings to mind a vision of a boy putting his fingers in a dam....it aint going to work...she's going to break out!

 

[Off Shore]

OK @jerry33 , you are now off the hook for any TSLA SP drop....We have a new poet who takes on that burden.

True but this is the first of the recent limericks that actually scan properly, so extra points for that.

 

[KarenRei]

TSLAQ is freaking hilarious.

 

[humbaba]

In case anyone is wondering, Ford still has over 80k EV sales to go before triggering the 6 month countdown to halving the tax credit.

Which is what, not even a quarter of sales. Oh, wait, this is Ford trying to sell and EV. Yeah. I saw an anecdote above about a Mustang owner buying an EV. Seems unlikely to me (a sibling is a 'stang lover) but I'd wager they'd be far more likely to buy a Fnord EV than a Tesla.

IMO the idea about requiring dealerships to install charging stations is genius. No need for immediate roll out, just state that they have plans to do so (and make them seem credible). They could even get by with them only being level 2 chargers -- people I've met that are new to EVs don't get the differences in chargers. To them charging is the same as fueling and its not like you charge faster at some stations. When they plug in a phone or laptop it doesn't matter where they plug it in, it pretty much always charges at a fixed rate. They just have a hard time grasping the charge rate differences.

The point is that, at least in the near term, someone who isn't in the market for a Tesla but would buy a Fnord EV would easily be swayed by a dealership charging plan. It doesn't matter if dealerships are closing (unless its the one near them), its all a matter of perception. And the perception would be that there would be an immediate nationwide roll out of charging. It is believable in part because it would all be at Ford dealerships -- that has at the least the appearance of removing roadblocks. Regardless of the truth of the matter, people in general associate Ford with its dealerships and would readily believe that if Ford the car manufacturer says it, that it will happen.

So, for very little outlay, Ford could get the semblance of being competitive with Tesla's charging network while having the advantage of an extensive service network.

And all of this plays into the perception that some folks have that the legacy makers somehow have an advantage. The ones who are most likely to believe that are also the least likely to buy an EV, so in that venn diagram the intersection between the uninformed and the EV curious is their target demographic.

 

[AudubonB]

For the record, here's a comparison between the First Edition (e.g. the one that comes out in a year) and Tesla's current lineup:

Vehicle..... Date.. Price. O-60. Range... Cargo PeakCharge. 0-60%Charge
Model 3 AWD.. Now $39,5k. 4,4s. 322mi. 43,6ft³... 1108mph...... 772mph
Model S LR... Now $72,6k. 3,7s. 373mi. 58,1ft³.... 563mph...... 524mph
Model Y AWD Q2'19 $52,0k. 4,8s. 280mi. 66,0ft³.....964mph...... 672mph
Model X LR... Now $84,9k. 4,4s. 345mi. 87,8ft³.... 521mph...... 485mph
Mach E 1st. Q4'19 $59,9k ~5,5s ~270mi. 59,6ft³.... 282mph...... 282mph
-7,5kcredit...... $52,2k

* Assuming no Tesla price/stat improvements over the course of 1 year and no changes to the (Tesla-disadvantageous) tax credit system.

Anyone actually impressed by this? Show of hands.

I am truly surprised that the Model S has a smaller cargo capacity than the Mach E. We have found the carrying capacity of ours to be massive. Now, ours has the advantage of being the earliest in the series, thus we have the biggest frunk- can carry in it a mounted spare and still have that “toaster cuddy” behind that. Nevertheless, if that spec on the Ford is correct that’s admirable.

 

[humbaba]

Key take away from executive summary.

Indeed, and as shown in Figure 1, our model says that for the same capital outlay today, wind and solar energy would produce 6.2-7x more useful energy for EVs than would oil priced at $60/bbl

...so what they are saying is that oil will rule at $10/bbl

 

[jerry33]

I am truly surprised that the Model S has a smaller cargo capacity than the Mach E. We have found the carrying capacity of ours to be massive. Now, ours has the advantage of being the earliest in the series, thus we have the biggest drunk - van carry a mounted spare and still have that “toaster cuddy” behind that. Nevertheless, if that spec on the Ford is correct that’s admirable.

Remember that Tesla reduced the frunk space to a joke in the newer S--even if you purchased an RWD, the frunk is still minimal.

 

[woodisgood]

I guess we'll continue the trend of moving opposite to NASDAQ