Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

These are non-binding reservations, however. The least binding of all models in terms of the amount and 100% refundable.
Plus, who knows how many were cancelled due to site problems and everybody ordering 4-5 trucks due to payments not going through.
Could be many less committed buyers than 200k.

I don't think it matters, I'm convinced that this product is a "slow burner" with a few minor design tweaks and a few smart accessories they can continue to improve the truck over time ... add in the usual Tesla improvements in software, batteries and motors, it is going to get better and better as people get more used to it.

I think they can build it cost effectively in low volumes or scale fairly quickly with low capex if demand takes off.

Another thing is the potential for wraps to improve to change and improve the look significantly, we have already seen matte black looks good and owners will try all sorts of combinations...

Finally a per the Clean Technica video below, this is an excellent off road vehicle and a steal for the price....

The more I think about it the better it looks, and I would rate the risk Tesla is taking as, low to non-existent.

 

[c041v]

Hmmm, what's that hanging from the ceiling?

Good catch. There’s also no aero cover on the wheels and there is a spare on the ground behind Franz and it looks good.

Trying to stay on topic, after reading a lot of media responses today, here are a few observations:

1) Some people hate the design
2) Some people love the design
3) I don’t recall the last time ANY vehicle got this much attention.

I think this nonsensical drop in the SP today will be forgotten next week, as many have suggested. Investors are coming around to what was the real star of the show yesterday - the technicals. I am feeling really good about this company.

 

[EVNow]

From the RN numbers looks like it might be 80k reservations if the serial number is in … series.

RN112740xx to RN 1128202xx

My reservation at 8:45 pm. RN112891xxx.

Close to 150k.

Probably a lot of duplicates and multiple reservations. Still impressive - esp given the controversial looks. To me the design is a bit disappointing-didn’t expect it to be so plain. But the price is the killer. GM/Ford R.I.P.

 

[Thekiwi]

 

[Fact Checking]

So now that we had the chance to sleep once after the reveal of the amazing Tesla stainless steel Cybertruck, here are my thoughts about the economics of the mass manufacturing of stainless steel cars and its implications for the car industry.

I believe Tesla's design is even more advantageous than I initially thought - Tesla achieved a significant manufacturing break-through here - as described in more detail below.

Firstly, a bit of historic background. Somewhat ironically, carmakers have experimented with stainless steel designs as early as 1936, when Ford built six stainless steel sedans for the Ludlum Steel Co. to promote using their product.

This is how well they held up after almost 100 years:

But carmakers had many, many good economic reasons why they didn't make stainless steel cars in volume:

• Much more expensive tooling:
  • Stainless steel is just too hard, and even the latest high-tech press-die alloys don't allow more than just a couple of ten thousand runs - i.e. amortization of these long lead time tooling items is incredibly high because dies that are durable enough to stamp hundreds of thousands of panels before wearing down are incredibly difficult to design and manufacture. I.e. the best, most important property of high precision stamping dies (durability) increases their cost and their lead time significantly.
    
  • Stainless steel is not malleable enough and the press springs back hard which wears down other parts of the press as well IIRC. I believe @Krugerrand wrote about this a year ago or so? (@ReflexFunds might have mentioned it too.)
    
  • Welding of stainless steel is rather difficult - there's contractors out there who do nothing but install and weld stainless steel as a specialty.
• Planned obsolescence: this was one of the major reasons given in a short article about stainless steel cars: they last too damn long and a major source of revenue for established carmakers is from maintenance of the fleet, much of which is out of warranty.
  
• Mass and efficiency disadvantages: stainless steel body panels are not structural, most of them are not load-bearing, so the extra weight and drop in fuel efficiency is significant.

And here comes Tesla and turns all of these economic factors upside down with their first-principles stainless steel car design break-through:

• Much less expensive tooling and assembly:
  • The folded-stainless-steel design requires no stamping.
  • This also reduces tooling lead time significantly. Note how Tesla has announced to make it in 2021 already - basically 1.5 years from now. This is incredibly fast for a new product that changes basically everything about how cars are made, and future iterations will be even faster.
  • Folded stainless steel doesn't have to be welded.
• Making durable cars is actually an advantage for an upstart carmaker like Tesla, whose average fleet age is less than 3 years - even if we ignore the whole benevolent 'save the planet' part of Tesla's mission.
• Vehicle mass and fuel/energy efficiency advantages: the "exoskeleton" design is load bearing, so the stainless steel has a triple role as a frame, skin and crash protection. The inherent weight disadvantages of stainless steel turn into weight advantages. That's I think a big part of how the Tesla Cybertruck will be able to reach 500 miles range - not just battery chemistry and pack manufacturing advances. Low mass also allows sports car properties ...

There's also a couple of unique advantages to stainless steel, which were mentioned here before, but which I believe are important to sum up to get a complete picture about the mass manufacturing economics:

• No paint required: No chemical bath to de-grease and clean the body before painting. No robots to spray several layers of paint. No ovens to dry the paint. No paint chemistry risk - which is still a source of expensive recalls even for much older carmakers.
  
• Corrosion resistance: corrosion of the car under-body, frame and chassis has been a bane of the automotive industry with expensive recalls, significant warranty risks and a longer design and testing cycle. Stainless steel is one of the most corrosion resistant materials, it is used all around in public transportation and construction with a ~100 years track record of the durability of the various stainless steel alloys.
• Stainless steel is significantly more fatigue resistant than the current material of choice of carmakers: aluminum. Stainless steel has 5-10 times the fatigue strength of aluminum, and within its (generous) plastic deformation constraints stainless steel has an infinite fatigue life:

I'm sure with time we will find some disadvantages of stainless steel - such as lower scratch resistance unless made really hard with chromium - but those are solvable IMHO and all the advantages are stacked up a mile high already...

The beauty of Tesla's design: I believe other carmakers will have no choice but to embrace the stainless steel design.

On a final note, Elon disguised the true motivation for the Cybertruck masterfully, without warning the competition prematurely: what everyone thought to be a childhood dream and a personal folly of Elon (Blade Runner truck), was in fact dictated by the economics of this radically new stainless steel based vehicle mass manufacturing paradigm.

 

[CalX]

Imagine how good it the cybertruck would look in these colors:
https://shinkachi-portal.smrj.go.jp/en/navi/company/r0sbp/e0jkb/

 

[Ggusev]

cybertruck, aside that it was beyond of awesome PR kunstuck, also is sort of a test from Tesla: is 'The Apple moment here yet? Could we throw anything at our fan base and they will buy it regardless how ugly it was?'

for me yes apple moment has come. I said earlier that the night of cybrtck reveal I will decide wether I'm getting 7-seater modelY or the truck.

and despite truck view shocked me, I chose it. I have a feeling that by year 2022 my accumulated stock will pay for either one or both.

 

[MC3OZ]

So now that we had the chance to sleep once after the reveal of the amazing Tesla stainless steel Cybertruck, here are my thoughts about the economics of the mass manufacturing of stainless steel cars and its implications for the car industry.

I believe Tesla's design is even more advantageous than I initially thought - Tesla achieved a significant manufacturing break-through here - as described in more detail below.

Firstly, a bit of historic background. Somewhat ironically, carmakers have experimented with stainless steel designs as early as 1936, when Ford built six stainless steel sedans for the Ludlum Steel Co. to promote using their product.

This is how well they held up after almost 100 years:

But carmakers had many, many good economic reasons why they didn't make stainless steel cars in volume:

• Much more expensive tooling:
  • Stainless steel is just too hard, and even the latest high-tech press-die alloys don't allow more than just a couple of ten thousand runs - i.e. amortization of these long lead time tooling items is incredibly high because dies that are durable enough to stamp hundreds of thousands of panels without wearing down are incredibly difficult to design and manufacture. I.e. the best, most important property of high precision stamping dies (durability) increases their cost and their lead time significantly.
    
  • Stainless steel is not malleable enough and the press springs back hard which wears down other parts of the press as well IIRC. I believe @Krugerrand wrote about this a year ago or so? (@ReflexFunds might have mentioned it too.)
    
  • Welding of stainless steel is rather difficult - there's contractors out there who do nothing but install and weld stainless steel as a specialty.
• Planned obsolescence: this was one of the major reasons given in a short article about stainless steel cars: they last too damn long and a major source of revenue for established carmakers is from maintenance of the fleet, much of which is out of warranty.
  
• Mass and efficiency disadvantages: stainless steel body panels are not structural, most of them are not load-bearing, so the extra weight and drop in fuel efficiency is significant.

And here comes Tesla and turns all of these economic factors upside down with their first-principles stainless steel car design break-through:

• Much less expensive tooling and assembly:
  • The folded-stainless-steel design requires no stamping.
  • This also reduces tooling lead time significantly. Note how Tesla has announced to make it in 2021 already - basically 1.5 years from now. This is incredibly fast for a new product that changes basically everything about how cars are made, and future iterations will be even faster.
  • Folded stainless steel doesn't have to be welded.
• Making durable cars is actually an advantage for an upstart carmaker like Tesla, whose average fleet age is less than 3 years - even if we ignore the whole benevolent 'save the planet' part of Tesla's mission.
• Vehicle mass and fuel/energy efficiency advantages: the "exoskeleton" design is load bearing, so the stainless steel has a triple role as a frame, skin and crash protection. The inherent weight disadvantages of stainless steel turn into weight advantages. That's I think a big part of how the Tesla Cybertruck will be able to reach 500 miles range - not just battery chemistry and pack manufacturing advances. Low mass also allows sports car properties ...

There's also a couple of unique advantages to stainless steel, which were mentioned here before, but which I believe are important to sum up to get a complete picture about the mass manufacturing economics:

• No paint required: No chemical bath to de-grease and clean the body before painting. No robots to spray several layers of paint. No ovens to dry the paint. No paint chemistry risk - which is still a source of expensive recalls even for much older carmakers.
  
• Corrosion resistance: corrosion of the car under-body, frame and chassis has been a bane of the automotive industry with expensive recalls, significant warranty risks and a longer design and testing cycle. Stainless steel is one of the most corrosion resistant materials, it is used all around in public transportation and construction with a ~100 years track record of the durability of the various stainless steel alloys.
• Stainless steel is significantly more fatigue resistant than the current material of choice of carmakers: aluminum. Stainless steel has 5-10 times the fatigue strength of aluminum, and within its (generous) plastic deformation constraints stainless steel has an infinite fatigue life:

View attachment 480319​

I'm sure with time we will find some disadvantages of stainless steel - such as lower scratch resistance unless made really hard with chromium - but those are solvable IMHO and all the advantages are stacked up a mile high already...

The beauty of Tesla's design: I believe other carmakers will have no choice but to embrace the stainless steel design.

On a final note, Elon disguised the true motivation for the Cybertruck masterfully, without warning the competition prematurely: what everyone thought to be a childhood dream and a personal folly of Elon (Blade Runner truck), was in fact dictated by the economics of this radically new stainless steel based vehicle mass manufacturing paradigm.

Shame I could not give this post Informative+Like.

I'll add that when you that about the applications Tesla, Space-X and Boring Co may have for this vehicle, or similar vehicles, longevity is a big advantage....

Tesla

• Mobile Service
• RoboTaxi - larger groups, or loads...

Space-X

• Mars - a little distance away from service and a body shop...

Boring Co

• Possibly removing muck from tunnels.
• Possible adaption to passenger vehicles.
• Possibly freight / delivery

The 3 variants I would be most excited to see are:-

1. A Slightly longer version with an 8ft bed and even more cargo and towing capacity.
2. A people mover for public transport like applications that can carry 12-16 people...
3. A small compact entry level EV at a very affordable price...

My thinking is that Cyber is almost like a budget version of the Tesla brand, good value for money and long lasting, but with slightly different aesthetics.

 

[Remus]

Comparing to a Ford F-150 it's about 3/4 grand saving on running cost per year with no upfront premium.

That's a lot of money.

So most people would throw away this much money just for the look?

 

[AudubonB]

Finally caught up to the latest in this thread.

Below is something to keep you occupied over the weekend non-trading hours MOD ON: ALL discussion of Cybertruck that does not obviously deal with near-term stock prices ENDS on or about midnight California time Sunday. Fairly warned, all! /MOD

There has been a reasonable amount of discussion on the use of stainless steel in the Cybertruck. As some are aware, that term is a bit of a catch-all - there are MANY grades of stainless; the various compounds all have their strengths and weaknesses in terms of durability, magnetism, malleability, weldability, springiness, reaction to different corrosive materials and so forth. To confuse matters a bit, as far as I have been able to learn there is no "stainless 306".

Following is a good description of several dozen of the current stainless grades available. You're welcome to pick out which is the one Tesla likely is using for Cybertruck.

http://www.worldstainless.org/Files...e_datasheet_-_all_datasheets_rev_Aug_2013.pdf

 

[StealthP3D]

So now that we had the chance to sleep once after the reveal of the amazing Tesla stainless steel Cybertruck, here are my thoughts about the economics of the mass manufacturing of stainless steel cars and its implications for the car industry.

I believe Tesla's design is even more advantageous than I initially thought - Tesla achieved a significant manufacturing break-through here - as described in more detail below.

Firstly, a bit of historic background. Somewhat ironically, carmakers have experimented with stainless steel designs as early as 1936, when Ford built six stainless steel sedans for the Ludlum Steel Co. to promote using their product.

This is how well they held up after almost 100 years:

But carmakers had many, many good economic reasons why they didn't make stainless steel cars in volume:

• Much more expensive tooling:
  • Stainless steel is just too hard, and even the latest press-die alloys don't allow more than just a couple of ten thousand runs - i.e. amortization of these long lead time tooling items is incredibly high.
  • Stainless steel is not malleable enough and the press springs back hard which wears down other parts of the press as well IIRC. I believe @Krugerrand wrote about this a year ago or so? (@ReflexFunds might have mentioned it too.)
    
  • Welding of stainless steel is rather difficult - there's contractors out there who do nothing but install and weld stainless steel as a specialty.
• Planned obsolescence: this was one of the major reasons given in a short article about stainless steel cars: they last too damn long and a major source of revenue for established carmakers is from maintenance of the fleet, much of which is out of warranty.
  
• Mass and efficiency disadvantages: stainless steel body panels are not structural, most of them are not load-bearing, so the extra weight and drop in fuel efficiency is significant.

And here comes Tesla and turns all of these economic factors upside down with their first-principles stainless steel car design break-through:

• Much less expensive tooling and assembly:
  • The folded-stainless-steel design requires no stamping.
  • This also reduces tooling lead time significantly. Note how Tesla has announced to make it in 2021 already - basically 1.5 years from now. This is incredibly fast for a new product that changes basically everything about how cars are made, and future iterations will be even faster.
  • Folded stainless steel doesn't have to be welded.
• Making durable cars is actually an advantage for an upstart carmaker like Tesla, whose average fleet age is less than 3 years - even if we ignore the whole benevolent 'save the planet' part of Tesla's mission.
• Vehicle mass and fuel/energy efficiency advantages: the "exoskeleton" design is load bearing, so the stainless steel has a triple role as a frame, skin and crash protection. The inherent weight disadvantages of stainless steel turn into weight advantages. That's I think a big part of how the Tesla Cybertruck will be able to reach 500 miles range - not just battery chemistry and pack manufacturing advances. Low mass also allows sports car properties ...

There's also a couple of unique advantages to stainless steel, which were mentioned here before, but which I believe are important to sum up to get a complete picture about the mass manufacturing economics:

• No paint required: No chemical bath to de-grease and clean the body before painting. No robots to spray several layers of paint. No ovens to dry the paint. No paint chemistry risk - which is still a source of expensive recalls even for much older carmakers.
  
• Corrosion resistance: corrosion of the car under-body, frame and chassis has been a bane of the automotive industry with expensive recalls, significant warranty risks and a longer design and testing cycle. Stainless steel is one of the most corrosion resistant materials, it is used all around in public transportation and construction with a ~100 years track record of the durability of the various stainless steel alloys.
• Stainless steel is significantly more fatigue resistant than the current material of choice of carmakers: aluminum. Stainless steel has 5-10 times the fatigue strength of aluminum, and within its (generous) plastic deformation constraints stainless steel has an infinite fatigue life:

View attachment 480319​

I'm sure with time we will find some disadvantages of stainless steel - such as lower scratch resistance unless made really hard with chromium - but those are solvable IMHO and all the advantages are stacked up a mile high already...

The beauty of Tesla's design: I believe other carmakers will have no choice but to embrace the stainless steel design.

On a final note, Elon disguised the true motivation for the Cybertruck masterfully, without warning the competition prematurely: what everyone thought to be a childhood dream and personal folly of Elon (Blade Runner truck), was in fact dictated by the economics of this radically new stainless steel based mass manufacturing paradigm.

Excellent write-up. I'm saddened that the engineering concepts and advantages of this design fly right over the head of most people who simply don't like the "look" and there's a reason for that. It's the same reason I thought it looked atrocious when it was first revealed. I didn't understand it instantly. Elon had to tell me about the exoskeleton and I had to mull over the structural implications before the design started to make sense in my mind. And as the pieces of the puzzle started clicking into place and the implications revealed their advantages, I began to have more and more "aha" moments. As I studied it from different angles and intuitively began to understand the reasons behind the design and how this all translated to a superior vehicle I began to be blown away. And the design started to actually have a visual beauty to it. In other words, it is necessary to understand how superior it is to see the beauty inherent.

Some people will never get beyond the superficial qualities of the design of a car. And those people will never find the Cybertruck beautiful. That's OK - it just means most Cybertruck owners will be people who are more aware of these things than others. Of course, there will always be people who appreciate it only because it's "rad" or "different", but that's OK too.

As to the entire structural design, Tesla has not revealed that yet. Is the under chassis constructed of SS as well? How are the different SS panels joined? SS rivets? Bolts? Welds? Glue? Or a combination of techniques based on suitability for each location? I have heard all we know about the allow is it's either SS 306 or 30x and it is cold rolled and related to alloys used on SpaceX rockets. It's important to note that SS comes in hundreds of different alloys, each with unique properties. A number of months ago Elon mentioned the truck would make extensive use of titanium. Is the stainless steel alloy used one of the ones that contain titanium? Is the rolltop of the bed (or "vault") made of titanium or titanium alloy? Tesla with its association to SpaceX is in a unique situation here. Not only do they have access to expert metallurgists but they probably have the relationships with metal suppliers/manufacturers, and buy metals in large enough lots, that they can order runs of custom metal alloys/products without paying "boutique" prices. This is exciting.

One thing is clear, this car is ground-breaking and innovative to a degree not seen in the auto or truck world since the beginnings of the industry and I'm not referring to the appearance! I think much of the popular press (automotive and otherwise with the possible exception of Motortrend) is really missing the boat here by not showing more "shock and awe" regarding the groundbreaking and innovative new approach in the very structure of a relatively heavy-duty pickup. I love that it will almost certainly be extremely rigid which is why Tesla claims it handles "like it's on rails" and how it can have such high load and towing ratings. But that could come with significant downside in terms of noise, vibration and harshness. It's not clear what techniques will be used to mitigate this.

From a consumer perspective, one of the most mind-bending implications of this truck is the extreme durability and resistance to minor damage from rocks, door dings, angry spouses, careless drunk people, nature's fury, and inattention the exterior of the truck will have. I fully expect the interior will be built to similar levels of resistance to damage from carelessness. This is a real game-changer for truck owners who like to use their trucks hard but take real pride in taking care of them and keeping them relatively new looking. Tesla has just redefined what it means for a truck to be "tough".

The market response to this groundbreaking truck was ridiculous. Which is why I bought Jan. 20, 2020 calls with a $320 strike. Because I expect the investment community to catch onto the concepts outlined above in the coming weeks and also to realize their eyes should be on Q4 path to excellent margins, not some Cybertruck slated for 2021 and beyond. As the furor over the Cybertruck and it's shattered windows die down and investors start to focus more on Tesla's growing successes, the share price should have plenty of helium in it.

Successful investors capitalize on market irregularities such as we have just witnessed, they don't run and hide in fear!

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Finally caught up to the latest in this thread.

Below is something to keep you occupied over the weekend non-trading hours MOD ON: ALL discussion of Cybertruck that does not obviously deal with near-term stock prices ENDS on or about midnight California time Sunday. Fairly warned, all! /MOD

There has been a reasonable amount of discussion on the use of stainless steel in the Cybertruck. As some are aware, that term is a bit of a catch-all - there are MANY grades of stainless; the various compounds all have their strengths and weaknesses in terms of durability, magnetism, malleability, weldability, springiness, reaction to different corrosive materials and so forth. To confuse matters a bit, as far as I have been able to learn there is no "stainless 306".

Following is a good description of several dozen of the current stainless grades available. You're welcome to pick out which is the one Tesla likely is using for Cybertruck.

http://www.worldstainless.org/Files...e_datasheet_-_all_datasheets_rev_Aug_2013.pdf

I believe Elon implied it might be a new formulation of stainless steel developed with or by SpaceX for Starship / Super Heavy. So it might not be any of those grades listed in the PDF.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Good catch. There’s also no aero cover on the wheels and there is a spare on the ground behind Franz and it looks good.

Trying to stay on topic, after reading a lot of media responses today, here are a few observations:

1) Some people hate the design
2) Some people love the design
3) I don’t recall the last time ANY vehicle got this much attention.

I think this nonsensical drop in the SP today will be forgotten next week, as many have suggested. Investors are coming around to what was the real star of the show yesterday - the technicals. I am feeling really good about this company.

I think the last time a vehicle got this much attention (granted it wasn't new at the time) it was being launched into orbit around the Sun...

 

[StealthP3D]

View attachment 480325 Imagine how good it the cybertruck would look in these colors:
https://shinkachi-portal.smrj.go.jp/en/navi/company/r0sbp/e0jkb/

The possibilities are astounding although I'll be more than happy with the color of the untreated SS. I'm so glad Tesla did not release a truck requiring regular paint for its corrosion resistance! How can any truck that uses paint to avoid rust be called "tough"?

 

[avoigt]

We know now they tried before and look yourself, its amazing:
Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[CorneliusXX]

View attachment 480291

Another owner post of V3 install starting.

View attachment 480290

The Q4 update letter is going to be great:

• Increased production from Fremont
• GF3 production
• Battery storage in Oz
• Solar Roof update
• Possibly CT reservations
• MY progress

They're going to need a few extra pages

 

[RobStark]

True. But the 10 million twelve year old followers he had in 2013 will be in their 20s by the time Cybertruck rolls out.

And the vast majority still won't be buying $40k plus pickups.

 

[GOVA]

All I can say after ~30 hours with this new car - all current "trucks" look like clay flower pots. Old, fragile and boring.

This cybertruck has been the change of world trends that has not happened for a loooong time, or ever.

Good night to you all.

 

[RobStark]

1. I believe over the next two years we will see a dramatic increase in battery production at Tesla.
2. Four years from now, conventional looking trucks will be on the way out. Last night just made them all obsolete.

This is serious crack pipe smoking.

It takes a long time to change minds this drastically in terms of aesthetics.

If it does happen it will take a lot longer than 4 years.

This is the equivalent of saying in 4 years the blue business suit will be on the way out in favor of silver sci fi suits.

 

[SpaceCash]

Here's the smuggler's compartment:

The temptation to go bad and just slang pure Colombian bam-bam outta my bulletproof Kanye-whip is very high...

But what I'm actually gonna do, is use the truck as a mobile concert-platform. Gonna throw some Marshall stacks in the back and just tear up the hood performing my own music while the car drives itself