Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fermi Paradox]

I don't think this has been posted before:

Gigafactory4 on Twitter

There was a council meeting in Brandenburg on Dec 04 with different political parties.

The Green party apparently raised the issue of water protected area on the GF4 area. This was Dr. Steinbach's reponse (Head of the Ministry of Economy, Labor, and Energy in Brandenburg): "2/3 are too much. It's known that there is a water protected area. This question needs to be answered transparently by the involved authorities."

Gigafactory4 on Twitter

I'm not an expert on this issue, so this might be a nothingburger but still worth to bring it up here

 

[floydboy]

Agreed, someone on Twitter noticed that the exact same piledrivers were used for the Battery Workshop as for the "Gap" now.

Battery Workshop piledrivers weeks ago:

View attachment 486076​

"The Gap" piledrivers two days ago:

View attachment 486077​

Thanks for the sharp eye guys! I was really scratching my head as to why they had torn up those superchargers.

 

[MP3Mike]

I believe the Model Y GA line is right next to and parallel to the Model 3 GA line, within the existing building.

But Elon said that they had to build more on site for the Model Y.

 

[winfield100]

I, for one, welcome our new RoboTaxi overlords.

This is going to remake urban life in unexpected ways. This is not just about a cheap ride. In a few short years we could be witnessing
- robotaxi related crimes that I can’t even think of

Old science fiction story (abbreviated version)
Couple on date, driving
Argument, have traffic violation
RoboCop catches them
(Overpopulation laws in force)
Adjudicated guilty,
RoboCop enforces traffic violation w/death penalty

 

[HG Wells]

Thanks for the sharp eye guys! I was really scratching my head as to why they had torn up those superchargers.

Thats a good question.
Did they change the plans or was the Supercharger site just temporary?
I think they changed the plans.

 

[KarenRei]

BTW @PeterJA - remember how I wrote the other day that your post went viral when I tweeted it, that it had been retweeted a couple hundred times? It keeps spreading - now ~1,6k retweets, from all over the world People find Ford's lazy engineering in compared to Tesla's (esp. the Lincoln one, where they could have easily fixed it just by sizing their pedestal correctly) to be amusing. As well as the "cargo cult" aspect of both Ford designs. Its a classic design study.

 

[KarenRei]

I don't think that's suitable space for the Model Y general assembly line: it's not nearly long enough, and this is the side of the stamping press.

Here's the planned GF3 layout, from about a month ago:

View attachment 486078​

I believe the Model Y GA line is right next to and parallel to the Model 3 GA line, within the existing building.

I.e. Model Y capacity can be added very quickly.

The only difference is that there's no stamping building on the plans for the east building. I simply interpret that as meaning that they'll be sharing a stamping line.

 

[KarenRei]

Thats a good question.
Did they change the plans or was the Supercharger site just temporary?
I think they changed the plans.

I don't. This is exactly what they did with GF1.

1) Grade
2) Make a parking lot
3) When you're ready to build there, rip up the parking lot.

They did that over and over again with GF1, every time they wanted to add another block onto the building.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So once they start using LG Chem cells the range will go down by about 7% and I'd expect a price drop.

No decrease in range for the MIC Model 3. Elon has stated they'll just add more cells to each pack to make up the difference in total energy capacity.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Btw., I've seen the "Battery Workshop" referenced as "Phase 1.5" - to be finished by March 2020.

My guess: "Phase 2" is a second general assembly line in the existing GF3 main building, which will assemble the Model Y. I'd expect them to start this around Q1-Q2 next year, informed by the GF3 and Fremont Model Y ramp-up.

Phase 3 will be another main building, parallel to the current one - Phase 4 will be its second GA line.

Total output of 4-phase GF3 will be about 1,000,000 units/year.

Ramp-up of Phase 1:

• 1x 8 hour shift to 1k/week, 50k/year,
• 2nd shift in January-February, 2k/week, 100k/year,
• 3rd shift in February-April, 3k/week, 150k/year nominal output
• 4th shift (each shift 6 hours), 4k/week, 200k/year
• additional gradual efficiency improvements +25%, 250k/year

Phase 2 doubles this to 500k/year, all four phases to 1m/year - but they'll ramp the 3rd and 4th phases more carefully and first observe whether addressable market and demand goes near 1m/year in Greater China and nearby APAC regions served by GF3.

That ramp schedule sounds pretty optimistic. Will the domestic battery supply and completion of what seems to be called "phase 1.5" support 3k per week by April? No way GF1 will ship that many to China.

 

[floydboy]

Thats a good question.
Did they change the plans or was the Supercharger site just temporary?
I think they changed the plans.

Agreed, the fact that they tore up concrete makes me think they changed too.

 

[Tslynk67]

(1). Right!
(2). This is the ONLY reply!

~Vetinari~

Ditto for Linux...MSDOS...TRS80s...Commodores.....

Yes, Commodore Audubon...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Plans might have changed, because mass of both Model 3 variants in the permits is equal.

Edit: the permit:

View attachment 486072

Capacity difference is 153 Wh/kg vs. 145 Wh/kg, or 5.5%.

Yeah, that source also described the battery as being Lithium Iron Phosphate.

 

[floydboy]

No decrease in range for the MIC Model 3. Elon has stated they'll just add more cells to each pack to make up the difference in total energy capacity.

So, does that mean the LG cells will be 'off the shelf' as opposed to a propriety mix like the Panasonics?

 

[jerry33]

I keep thinking to myself, that Toyota has got to know what's coming in the way of electrification. So, maybe they're developing their BEVs discreetly. Then they'll pop out with some decent all electric vehicles(having siphoned all the 'hydrogen economy' bucks they can from the Japanese government). If not, then we got ourselves another Titanic.

You have to remember that Toyota has more bureaucratic layers than a sandstone cliff.

 

[jerry33]

So, does that mean the LG cells will be 'off the shelf' as opposed to a propriety mix like the Panasonics?

I doubt it. My understanding is that they will be as close as possible without violating any Panasonic-only patents and within the capability of LG. I just hope Tesla never has to go to LG for the warranty as LG is one of the worst.

 

[kengchang]

That's the skit they did at one of their meetings when he retired. A long time ago, and not necessarily his car.

Nope, that's his car

Ever Wonder How Billionaires Get To Work?

Bill Gates used to drive to his office in a Ford Focus, but he had a few Porsches for fun. Steve Balmer drives a Ford Fusion Hybrid, as he grew up in Detroit and his father worked for Ford.

 

[Electroman]

Since he (or is it she?) was blocked this was the response from that untrustworthy scumbag Ryan Mac.

This one tweet tells you everything you need to know about all the trolls masquerading as journalists. All they are looking for is negative information to blow it up.

Ryan Mac on Twitter
"Guess you guys are gonna have to let me know if he does a bad tweet now"

 

[VValleyEV]

Democrats are leading the charge against Tesla despite Uber and Lyft's problems with sexual assaults, not to mention this whole climate change thing going on right now

Do you have data/examples?

No disrespect to either political party, just interested from an investor perspective. If there is real political push against Tesla from US Democrats, where/what/how, how much of a threat, and are they likely to get stronger or weaker?

Thx

 

[Artful Dodger]

That ramp schedule sounds pretty optimistic. Will the domestic battery supply and completion of what seems to be called "phase 1.5" support 3k per week by April? No way GF1 will ship that many to China.

That's actually the stated target for bty pack production at GF1/Sparks by end of 2019, according to multiple comments by "carsonight" on DISQUS over the past 2 months. That'd be 7 K Model 3s at Fremont, and 3K at Shanghai.

Further, Tesla China execs have stated separately that the goal for initial production at GF3 is 2.9K/wk. That extra logistics expense should be done by 2020Q2, just as Fremont is bringing up the Model Y line to absorb the unallocated packs from GF1.

They're still going to need more cells from Panasonic in Sparks though. Stamping capacity at Fremont is ~ 14K/wk so I'm sure Tesla would like to achieve that total spread across the two products, 3/Y.

Cheers!