Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

And on the flip side a lot of us wouldn’t have had the opportunity to accumulate significantly more shares. I’m glad they had a bad Q1.

Q1 results were worse than expected after such glowing results in the previous two quarters. But in the bigger picture, the poorer than expected results did not justify the trip all the way to $180/share - that was brought on by fear that Tesla was not going to make it. I hate to give the TESLAQ crowd credit for anything (and they certainly have little or no sway amongst informed TSLA investors) but they can cause doubts to form in the minds of uninformed investors who only have a scanty idea of what's going on at Tesla. Their lies and exaggerations can be easily refuted with facts but their relentless negativity towards Tesla and subtle planting of doubts and fears do take a toll and are not the kind of thing that can be directly countered. This subtle planting of negativity, and the hope that it will take hold and grow, can be found right here at TMC. Especially in Forums other than the Investor's Roundtable.

If you don't believe me maybe you haven't been browsing those other forums. I admit, I avoid them because they tend to leave you with a "dirty" or negative feeling. So many subtle characterizations of Tesla products being faulty, cheap, misguided, inconvenient, poorly engineered, etc. Which totally contrasts with my experience with our two Teslas. While no car is absolutely perfect, the two Teslas do stand head and shoulders above the rest of all the new cars we have ever purchased. So, yes, the forums here have a decidedly "bummer" feeling compared to the reality of Tesla products. The subtle trolls are working overtime. Some of it is guided by a simple hate or dislike of Tesla but much of it is purposeful FUD and negativity which often goes unchallenged (because its hard to challenge such vague things).

 

[anthonyj]

 

[hacer]

Well, they definitely charge Waymo One regular riders. But you may be onto something. They originally did not charge Early Experience riders. For all I know that could still be true. And though some contend driverless applies to both regular and EE (the memo went out to at least some regulars), I have not seen proof yet. So maybe they have permission to do paid ride-share in Phoenix, maybe they don't yet.

In CA they definitely don't. Their approval specifically said no revenue rides.

Of course some say they'll never charge for rides, but will monetize riders by vectoring you to local businesses, serving ads and selling your travel history to 3rd parties. With Google it's always a possibility.

The other thing you don't know is how they decide to dispatch a driver-less car. Since they know the current location, destination and pickup point they could only send driver-less vehicles on the easiest routes.

 

[Tslynk67]

Still Sunday, I know, but barring some kind of apocalypse, look at all those puts that will be flushed down the pan, worthless, this coming Friday

Edit - where's the graphic go? Pfff!

 

[Unpilot]

I'll say it again this week....it's gonna be a good week for Tesla.

Just watch.

 

[KarenRei]

Jason Yang's weekly GF3 video has been released. Lots of progress this week.

The battery module/Pack building is progressing - now with climate control installed
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The loading bays are very close together. Does this suggest they need faster load/unloading?
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They're driving a lot of piles into the area behind the main building which they started digging up a couple of weeks ago. Possibly need heavier foundations to expand the stamping area?
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Swift progress laying the floor of phase 3 (i think that's what they are calling it). However, no piles were driven into this section so I wonder if either the concrete floor being laid first provides enough support, or if this will be a lighter production facility.
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There are a few large holes still open in the middle - Possibly heavier foundations for a central support or for a press?
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Loading....
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Lots of loading...
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More evidence of steady production at phase 1. Plenty of trucks parked at the loading bays.
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I know everyone's all excited, but those are probably just going to be parking lots for now, which they'll demo as needed when they're ready to build Phase 2. The foundations are probably for the light poles.

I could be wrong, mind you. Just figure we need a Negative Nancy here

 

[Skryll]

In the U.S., with some states have 20% or more of the populations below the poverty line and in most areas a moribund public transportation system, raising the gas tax penalizes low income families. There's almost zero possibility of low income families purchasing any electric car in the near future.

Still has got to be done, and can be offset in other ways, i.e. reduce value added tax Removing billion dollar subsidy to the oil and gas industry may also be a more direct way to affect gas prices without calling it a tax, which the social-network-revolution bots can weaponize much easier, i.e. see france etc.

 

[KarenRei]

Marketwatch talking up the likelihood of the tax credit renewal passing.

Tax-credit expansion sought by Tesla, other EV players is among tax breaks getting lawmakers’ attention as year ends

Still uncertain, of course.

Contrary to some misinformation circulating on Twitter, the new language only applies to sales made after the bill is enacted.

However, the extra 400k sales also doesn't start ticking up until

The bill also creates a new credit for used vehicles (e.g. will boost residual value):

... and heavy vehicles (e.g. Semi)

The value of this bill to Tesla, should it pass, really can't be overstated. It'd create billions of dollars of extra ASP for the company. I would say "sales", but they're already going to be maxed out on production regardless. Might justify sinking more money into "as quickly as possible" capacity expansions, though. The key for Tesla would be to come just short of 400k US sales in one quarter (say, Q4 '20 or Q1 '21), and then have tons of extra production capacity come online the quarter after that, to get as many sales in before the credits phase out.

But it has to actually pass, of course.

 

[jerry33]

Still has got to be done, and can be offset in other ways, i.e. reduce value added tax Removing billion dollar subsidy to the oil and gas industry may also be a more direct way to affect gas prices without calling it a tax, which the social-network-revolution bots can weaponize much easier, i.e. see france etc.

Agreed. A gas tax doesn't really hurt those buying new cars, only those with low income.

 

[ZeApelido]

Been browsing the waiting rooms.
Looks like there won't be any to spare.

LR AWD LR AWD Waiting Room
SR+ SR/SR+ Waiting Room
Preformance Performance Waiting Room

I'm sorry I don't have a square to spare.

 

[Toumal]

Interesting take from Soylent Brown on Taycan’s power usage. Not looking good for the “sleeping giant” theory.
View attachment 488492 View attachment 488490 View attachment 488488 View attachment 488489

Orders of magnitude off. The puddle lights and dash electronics will never add up to this many kilowatts. If anything, Tesla most likely has the more power hungry computer on board, and they STILL manage to be more efficient overall. My guess is that the cooling/heating system does take a lot of power in the Taycan, but I doubt that the EPA cycle is such a stressful test. My bet is simply on the whole efficiency of the drivetrain, and a 2 speed transmission DOES eat into your range.

We see again and again that Tesla's lead in details is staggering. Battery thermal management, motor design and efficiency, onboard electronics and the integration of it all. It's getting clearer and clearer that this 5-year lead on the competition isn't shrinking, it's more or less staying exactly the same as Tesla moves ahead. I doubt we'll see a car that can match the Model 3's level of integration, efficiency, and sophisticated heat management within the next three years.

 

[hobbes]

The most immediate and simple way to tax based on pollution / fuel consumption would be to increase taxes on gas. Unlike a one-time sales tax (least related) or yearly (not much better but at least not limited to initial buyer), it incentivises to reduce consumption by increasing the variable part of TCO.
Except for being unpopular among voters, is there any other downside that I'm not seeing?

Even better would be taxing CO2 output, no matter in which way it is produced. Might not be as simple, but more effective than just taxing gas.

 

[Big Earl]

Interesting take from Soylent Brown on Taycan’s power usage. Not looking good for the “sleeping giant” theory.
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An additional lighting load of a few dozen watts makes nearly zero difference in vehicle range. Yes, it adds up, but not enough to make a noticeable impact. The energy required to maintain highway speeds can be 20 - 40 kW, while the lighting load is maybe 200 - 400 watts ... a 100x difference.

The biggest issue, in my opinion, is Porsche's implementation of regenerative braking. They seem to be relying on the friction brakes much more than they should be, which wastes an incredible amount of energy.

 

[wipster]

I believe the rules are fine, it's the behaviour that has to change, which is far harder. Think about how even heavy enforcement and fines over the last several decades hasn't stopped people from not using seat belts. I find that many of my passengers don't just immediately fasten their seat belts, they typically have to hear the chime.

Boy I agree with you on the seat belts. Just a day ago we had a big crash on a slick highway south of town where the driver of an F150 that caused the accident and flipped the vehicle was killed... he was not wearing a seat belt. Another driver was seriously injured; they were not wearing a seat belt. The third driver was injured, but released from the hospital, probably because they were wearing their seat belts!

After being in a serious accident myself about 30 years ago, where I flipped and totalled my beloved 2002 and escaped injury even though I was not wearing my seat belt at the time (probably because the centrifugal force kept us seated), I promised myself and former spouse that I would always wear my seat belt from then on. It has saved me from injury in two other accidents (one my fault, the other not) and I don't regret it for a second. Matter of fact I feel far more secure being belted in than not, plus I'm not violating the law.

The amount of idiots that drive unbelted even today never ceases to amaze me.

 

[Beltsbear]

Marketwatch talking up the likelihood of the tax credit renewal passing.

Tax-credit expansion sought by Tesla, other EV players is among tax breaks getting lawmakers’ attention as year ends

Still uncertain, of course.

Contrary to some misinformation circulating on Twitter, the new language only applies to sales made after the bill is enacted.

View attachment 488497

However, the extra 400k sales also doesn't start ticking up until

The bill also creates a new credit for used vehicles (e.g. will boost residual value):

... and heavy vehicles (e.g. Semi)

The value of this bill to Tesla, should it pass, really can't be overstated. It'd create billions of dollars of extra ASP for the company. I would say "sales", but they're already going to be maxed out on production regardless. Might justify sinking more money into "as quickly as possible" capacity expansions, though. The key for Tesla would be to come just short of 400k US sales in one quarter (say, Q4 '20 or Q1 '21), and then have tons of extra production capacity come online the quarter after that, to get as many sales in before the credits phase out.

But it has to actually pass, of course.

This will would change my behavior. If this passed, I would buy a low end Model 3 while I wait for CT as soon as I could get that new credit. Right now I have my order in for a CT and will continue to drive my ICE truck until then. My Model 3 would cost me $30k and my depreciation would probably be $8k over 2 years or less. I would then trade it for CT when that finally arrived.

 

[EVDRVN]

An additional lighting load of a few dozen watts makes nearly zero difference in vehicle range. Yes, it adds up, but not enough to make a noticeable impact. The energy required to maintain highway speeds can be 20 - 40 kW, while the lighting load is maybe 200 - 400 watts ... a 100x difference.

The biggest issue, in my opinion, is Porsche's implementation of regenerative braking. They seem to be relying on the friction brakes much more than they should be, which wastes an incredible amount of energy.

Not true, it's at least a tire rotation I always wonder how people come up with these insane figures.

 

[kbM3]

VPP’s, “Virtual Power Plants” loosely aggregated by software.
Consider
10,000 PV rooftop arrays
(4 square miles of 1/4 acre lots with houses, with each one having PV arrays)
Each 11,655 watts
This is/could be a 116,550,000 virtual power plant, (116 megawatts)
Look at S Australia, where the (present) goal is 50,000 PV arrays
The above VPP could/would be 582 megawatts, over 1/2 gigawatt
It’s scalable, cost of T&D (transmission and distribution) is practically zero
FCAS is usable and valuable (proven by giant battery in S Australia)
FCAS = frequency control and Ancillary services
It seems pretty obvious when pointed out

1) Tesla does not own those, so that does not fulfill the generation aspect.
2)They rely on the existing grid, so it does not fulfill the distribution aspect.

I.e. that system still relies on the existing utility company and is therefore not an example of Tesla becoming a utility. It is an example of Tesla becoming a supplier to a utility company.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Agreed. A gas tax doesn't really hurt those buying new cars, only those with low income.

That's just a subversive argument thrown around by fossil fuel industry.

Those with low income don't drive as much as that's an expense they can control. I was poor growing up, and ALL expenses got scrutinized. If you could walk there, then you did so. An increase in the cost of gas, just means fewer trips out of town.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Still Sunday, I know, but barring some kind of apocalypse, look at all those puts that will be flushed down the pan, worthless, this coming Friday

Edit - where's the graphic go? Pfff!

View attachment 488501

This makes me think we probably won't go up this week to keep all those 360ish calls out of the money, based on what we've been seeing.

Last week was like watching a Greek tragedy- I didn't even have to watch just checked the closing price on Friday and said, "Yup!"

 

[ZachF]

Nono, he's right, unfortunately for MB