Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

What the hell? That’s the best they can do?

It looks like they don't plan on making too many of these so it was cheaper to just modify what they already had.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Jason Yang's weekly GF3 video has been released. Lots of progress this week.

The battery module/Pack building is progressing - now with climate control installed

The loading bays are very close together. Does this suggest they need faster load/unloading?

They're driving a lot of piles into the area behind the main building which they started digging up a couple of weeks ago. Possibly need heavier foundations to expand the stamping area?

Swift progress laying the floor of phase 3 (i think that's what they are calling it). However, no piles were driven into this section so I wonder if either the concrete floor being laid first provides enough support, or if this will be a lighter production facility.

There are a few large holes still open in the middle - Possibly heavier foundations for a central support or for a press?

Loading....

Lots of loading...

More evidence of steady production at phase 1. Plenty of trucks parked at the loading bays.

 

[StealthP3D]

it's not about being "safer". My point was if you drive "safely" in China, you are a terrible driver. You have to drive in an really unsafe way just to get anywhere at all times. So how can Tesla or anyone solve the issue of succeeding at driving in an area where NOT traffic laws determines how one should drive but selfishness/assertiveness is championed.

China will probably rewrite the rules of the road to accomodate automous vehicles.

Autonomous vehicles will be required to have special markings identifying them as such. If you, a human, hit an autonomous vehicle, or if an autonomous vehicle hits you, the human is automatically at fault.

That should fix the problem!

 

[Runarbt]

I feel very blessed about the way this year went. I had a lot of funds tied up all year and got them available on Friday May 30th. Doubled my # of TSLA shares at $185 on the 2nd best day to do so in the last 3 years.

You lucky bstrd. ;-)

My company have been in a down sizing process all year. Just got msg I most likely will keep my job, final confirm next week. yay;-) so now I can move funds to tsla.

Have a very positive feeling, but would have felt even better in may. ;-)

Going the route of selling 2021 $250 puts for half my money and stock for half.. just in case we meet heavy resistance at 400 and dip back 250-300 for another year or two.

 

[JustMe]

I probably shouldn’t provoke Tesla queue types at 3am on twitter. I get a little funny in the head.
Scott on Twitter

 

[Dreadnought]

While incentives are ofc way better than doing nothing I think most if not all of them have some flaws usually by not motivating enough, everyone, all the time or equally.
I believe better approach to speed up transition to EVs would be to just add huge taxes for buyers of ICE vehicles. (Isn't it what worked in Norway?) That would lead to weak ICE sales so manufacturers would be forced to choose to either shrink/quit their business or start producing affordable and compelling EVs people would want to buy. All the taxes collected could be used to build out charging infrastructure or to offset some damage from air pollution to people and environment.

The most immediate and simple way to tax based on pollution / fuel consumption would be to increase taxes on gas. Unlike a one-time sales tax (least related) or yearly (not much better but at least not limited to initial buyer), it incentivises to reduce consumption by increasing the variable part of TCO.
Except for being unpopular among voters, is there any other downside that I'm not seeing?

 

[EV Promoter]

You sure you didn't accidentally copy & paste above paragraph from The Onion?

Nono, he's right, unfortunately for MB

 

[RobStark]

The most immediate and simple way to tax based on pollution / fuel consumption would be to increase taxes on gas. Unlike a one-time sales tax (least related) or yearly (not much better but at least not limited to initial buyer), it incentivises to reduce consumption by increasing the variable part of TCO.
Except for being unpopular among voters, is there any other downside that I'm not seeing?

A recent gasoline tax increase in California from 41.7 cents to 47.3 cents per gallon caused a full on voter revolt led by the California Republican Party.

It took the full heft of the California bureaucracy and California Democratic Party to save this very mild tax increase in a public called referendum.

A significant enough US gasoline tax increase to cause people to switch from ICEv to BEV has an almost zero percent chance of passing in the US Senate.

 

[Tslynk67]

Yeah, Legal advised that promise doesn't apply, due to this previous disclaimer:

"Mercedes-Benz: The Best or Nothing."​

So, a Model Y it is then... Happy New Year!

Cheers!

FTFY

 

[Tslynk67]

Nono, he's right, unfortunately for MB

What a fickin' mess!

 

[Tslynk67]

In Norway we had heavy car taxes based on car price and engine size. We then changed taxes to be based on pollution. And suddenly BEVs got no taxes. While fossil cars maintained the high tax levels. Additional incentives for BEVs such as free tollroads, ferries, public parking and free driving in bus lanes helped people switch cars.

These additional incentives are now beeing somewhat rolled back. There are basically two views - either that we are sponsoring EVs for rich people - or that we need even more incentives going forward since most cars on the road are still fossils.

Tax the pollution more.

 

[ReflexFunds]

The most immediate and simple way to tax based on pollution / fuel consumption would be to increase taxes on gas. Unlike a one-time sales tax (least related) or yearly (not much better but at least not limited to initial buyer), it incentivises to reduce consumption by increasing the variable part of TCO.
Except for being unpopular among voters, is there any other downside that I'm not seeing?

I think a tax on new ICE vehicles is much better than increased fuel taxes.

Firstly because EV running costs are already far far lower than ICE, yet customers are still put off EVs by the higher upfront price because not everybody looks at TCO. So you make more difference here by a tax on the upfront costs.

Secondly, people already bought ICE cars counting on the huge government indirect fossil fuel subsidies (mostly via lower sales tax rates, uncharged healthcare costs, uncharged cost of deaths from air pollution and uncharged use of the remaining carbon budget). In reality few people know about the fossil fuel subsidies, but they do know the expected fuel costs and fuel tax rates when they bought their car. It is harder to take this away from people retroactively after they have already made a huge purchase decision and after it is already too late to buy an EV. Hence the huge protests in California, France and South America to lowering fuel subsidies. It is much fairer and more effective to put the tax on new ICE sales so customers from the beginning have the choice to buy EV rather than ICE.

The tax proceeds can then be used to support car purchases, or possibly government owned leasing fleets to support affordability of personal car ownership.

 

[ReflexFunds]

China has confirmed it has suspended the 25% extra tariffs on US Autos and 5% on Auto Parts that was set for 15-Dec. This should be a big boost to Tesla LR Model 3 & S&X demand in Q1, while lowering costs on Battery & Powertrain parts imported from GF1 for MIC Model 3s.

China suspends planned tariffs scheduled for Dec. 15 on some U.S. goods

 

[sparcs]

Swift progress laying the floor of phase 3 (i think that's what they are calling it). However, no piles were driven into this section so I wonder if either the concrete floor being laid first provides enough support, or if this will be a lighter production facility.
View attachment 488358

Looks like large slabs of concrete being poured in this area which could indicate that whole giant building in the drawings that is a mirror image of the Model 3 building could get built. Lot faster than I thought they would be doing actual construction. I figured it was just ground preparation. Taking the big assumption that this is for Y, they might be moving on a faster timeline now.

(hopefully it's not a parking lot )

 

[Christine69420]

A significant enough US gasoline tax increase to cause people to switch from ICEv to BEV has an almost zero percent chance of passing in the US Senate.

When Norway changed car taxes to be pollution based we did not increase the tax amount for ice cars. So the tax change did not cause an uproar. A few of the most expensive cars even got cheaper than before. And people liked that.

 

[EV Promoter]

What a fickin' mess!

I think we are starting to get informations on the corporate strategy of "Tesla killer" car makers, something i believe is very relevant to estabilish many years of Tesla long lead and by consequence how long will be the ramp of Tesla shares.

We already heard Oliver Blume from Porsche saying he doesn't have a clue about EV's and stating something very technically wrong about EVs. This mean existing projects are doomed since the start, notwithstanding the dedicated architecture.

Oliver Blume: „Porsche erlebt gerade eine Sonderkonjunktur“

The low range is the end result of a global product design, not a single technical fault that you can fix somehow.
They designed a Porsche with all the bells and whistles and the battery was just the last piece to be considered. And because Porsche has to be reliable, even with a large buffer. What does remain in range, remains.

And this architecture is doomed also for the incoming Audi GT-etron. To sort the issue the entire approach and chassis must be reviewed. I just name a Tesla thing: "battery bucks". That is, quantifying every choice how much is costing in terms of battery cost and put it down even if a solution costs more on bucks (Brembo brakes, for example) but less in battery bucks. How far they are from that philosophy? Ages.

Doomed, we wait for the next generation, Audi - Porsche.

But let's talk about MB. EQC is declared to be a ICE GLC converted to EV to build it in the same production line of ICE cars: hence the tube frame to reproduce engine and trasmission (ridicolous) to reproduce same crash test results and the position of the electrical motor up in the engine bay occupying the entire space.

Mercedes-Benz EQC

The EQC’s chief engineer gladly admits that because it’s thus adapted, it’s 150kg heavier than it would be if entirely bespoke. He claims weight doesn’t greatly affect range because you can regenerate more from a heavy car

Again, incompetence and attempts to conceive an EV as an ICE.
Spy on the EQS, direct rival to Model S. Same story, engine bay full, same approach.

Doomed, we wait for the next generation, MB.

 

[Fact Checking]

Tesla Analyst Alex Potter of Piper Jaffray interviewed by Rob Maurer

This is one of the best, most in-depth interviews about Tesla's financials, market position and future market position - ever.

Highly recommended despite its length. Kudos to both Alex Potter and Rob Maurer.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Nono, he's right, unfortunately for MB

Hmm. So instead of a frunk, you can open the hood and proudly show off the chromed engine/transmission structural simulator. Cool!

The pedestrian warning theme is obvious:

 

[STARR X]

This is one of the best, most in-depth interviews about Tesla's financials, market position and future market position - ever.

Highly recommended despite its length. Kudos to both Alex Potter and Rob Maurer.

I agree. He comes across as a conservative bull and offers great insight into potential China issues. It is nice to ‘see’ a bigger picture of my Tesla world.

 

[Off Shore]

The most immediate and simple way to tax based on pollution / fuel consumption would be to increase taxes on gas. Unlike a one-time sales tax (least related) or yearly (not much better but at least not limited to initial buyer), it incentivises to reduce consumption by increasing the variable part of TCO.
Except for being unpopular among voters, is there any other downside that I'm not seeing?

Hits the poor, who often drive bad-mileage clunkers, the hardest.