Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Runarbt]

The Raven powertrain uses 18650-based 100 KWh battery packs...

Wrong!

The Model S uses 18650 batteries, and would need to be redesigned for anything else.

The Raven drivetrain uses electricity..

 

[JRP3]

The Raven powertrain uses 18650-based 100 KWh battery packs. Unless you have evidence that contradicts what Tesla has stated publicly, that's the pack for the Dual motor Cybertruck, along with the power electronics and motors in the existing Raven.

Minimal development work by reusing an existing powertrain means faster to market. That's what VW did in 1950 when it created the Transporter van/pickup based on the Beetle powertrain. Taking that cue, that's what Telsa will do with its first pickup truck.

Tesla is now all about.speed to market. So is Cybertruck.

How do we know that the Raven 2 years from now will definitely be using the 18650 based packs? Has Tesla stated the Cyber will have a 100kWh pack? Where will volume cell production come from if the Cyber is as popular as it's looking to be? Do you know for a fact that both Raven motors, one of which is a PMSR, are built at Fremont?

 

[MP3Mike]

Do you know for a fact that both Raven motors, one of which is a PMSR, are built at Fremont?

I'm pretty sure that Tesla has said part of the space they made available at Fremont for the Model Y was the fact that they moved the, or at least some of, the motor production for the S&X to GF1.

 

[MC3OZ]

The Raven powertrain uses 18650-based 100 KWh battery packs. Unless you have evidence that contradicts what Tesla has stated publicly, that's the pack for the Dual motor Cybertruck, along with the power electronics and motors in the existing Raven.

Minimal development work by reusing an existing powertrain means faster to market. That's what VW did in 1950 when it created the Transporter van/pickup based on the Beetle powertrain. Taking that cue, that's what Telsa will do with its first pickup truck. Tesla is now all about.speed to market. So is Cybertruck.

With Model Y coming online at Fremont in Summer 2020, followed by the SR version in 2021, there is no spare 2170 cell capacity at GF3. Its not certain, but I think the current plan for both Roadster and the Tri-motor Cybertruck is to use a double-layer 200 KWh pack. Again, they'll reuse engineering effort from the Roadster for the Tri-motor.

Plaid Model S will have to fit into this production plan too, but we have fewer hints from Elon about its pack, just that Plaid will be a bigger pack than the Model S P100D. We need to hear more of Tesla's plans on Battery Day before we'll get an idea of where the needed new cell capacity will come from, and hopefully how it'll be used in production.

Cheers!

My hunch is the battery in the Cybertruck is more likely to be the same battery that is in the Plaid Model S/X.

We have more questions than answers around batteries and packs, until battery investor day...

I don't even know if Raven model S/X will continue to be made with 18650 batteries once Plaid is shipping, if Plaid will be made at Fremont... if all Model S/X will be Plaid (body shape), or if they will retain 2 separate body shapes....

 

[LJS22]

My hunch is the battery in the Cybertruck is more likely to be the same battery that is in the Plaid Model S/X.

We have more questions than answers around batteries and packs, until battery investor day...

I don't even know if Raven model S/X will continue to be made with 18650 batteries once Plaid is shipping, if Plaid will be made at Fremont... if all Model S/X will be Plaid (body shape), or if they will retain 2 separate body shapes....

My feeling is model S and X are due for some surprising technical upgrades with that power train. As it stands the Cybertruck is the greatest deal of all time assuming the Model S and X plaid will cost between $120,000-140,000. Roadster is at $200,000 and Cybertruck is this monster at $69,000. Can Tesla push a 700-800 mile range on a S or X in the future with plaid? They could be running laps around ICE in the next two years.

 

[DragonWatch]

Thanks for the info my friend. Do you live near Tacoma? Or in the middle of the state?

North of Shelton Fishing good if you are interested

 

[JRP3]

I'm pretty sure that Tesla has said part of the space they made available at Fremont for the Model Y was the fact that they moved the, or at least some of, the motor production for the S&X to GF1.

I assumed that at least all the PMSR motors were built at GF1.

 

[wipster]

North of Shelton Fishing good if you are interested

Thanks! I thought you might have been making fun of Grandview, as it is in the middle of grape territory. On Google maps, they call your town Allyn-Grapeview. Looks beautiful over there!

 

[DragonWatch]

Lol, if your cannon is overheated from firing too often, you don't need a 'correction', you need a publicist.

Cheers!

Bubba firing bump stock near where my wife and I walk They park right by the highway and shoot in wooded cluster left from clear cut. As climate change progresses; I may wish I had one of my old launchers ~ fire and forget

 

[dc_h]

My hunch is the battery in the Cybertruck is more likely to be the same battery that is in the Plaid Model S/X.

We have more questions than answers around batteries and packs, until battery investor day...

I don't even know if Raven model S/X will continue to be made with 18650 batteries once Plaid is shipping, if Plaid will be made at Fremont... if all Model S/X will be Plaid (body shape), or if they will retain 2 separate body shapes....

There are enough 18650 batteries for approximately the amount of SX produced today. Less then 10GWh. Part of the reason for fewer cars is they’re all 100KW packs, so max sustained production is about 90,000 cars. Maybe they’ll keep them for SX going forward, but not a 3rd car or truck. I’d think they’d want to move on and standardize on 2150, but batteries for 90,000 cars is more then anyone has besides Tesla. Why not keep Panasonic supply locked down until your making 100 or 200GWh per year or more.

 

[DragonWatch]

Thanks! I thought you might have been making fun of Grandview, as it is in the middle of grape territory. On Google maps, they call your town Allyn-Grapeview. Looks beautiful over there!

It is beautiful ~ have an otter that basks on neighbors swim platform.

 

[kengchang]

There are enough 18650 batteries for approximately the amount of SX produced today. Less then 10GWh. Part of the reason for fewer cars is they’re all 100KW packs, so max sustained production is about 90,000 cars. Maybe they’ll keep them for SX going forward, but not a 3rd car or truck. I’d think they’d want to move on and standardize on 2150, but batteries for 90,000 cars is more then anyone has besides Tesla. Why not keep Panasonic supply locked down until your making 100 or 200GWh per year or more.

No one is going to use Cylindrical other than Tesla and Rivian

 

[RFernatt]

Just received my Tesla Christmas present to myself (stainless steel water bottle) and it got me thinking. The product is nice and your typical cylindrical shape (logos need to be darker/bigger though), but what we really need is a Cyber styled octagonal water bottle and a thermos made from the same 30x cold rolled stainless. Maybe build in a LED "light bar" ring on the cap with a small solar cell and you could use the thing as an emergency light and self defense weapon. Bold, laser engraved logo and lettering, meaty black rubberized bottom, maybe a little sealed compartment in the base for water purification tablets. Meeting all your dystopian future water bottle needs!

Yeah, it will be pricey, but what else you gonna buy while waiting on your CT?

Maybe a bit too much coffee and chocolate this evening...

EDIT: Add a matching lunchbox and it can be part of the Cyberdine System!

 

[woof]

Most of my previous optimization projects have been with CFD model optimization, although I've also used it for things like compression, and my most recent project is an attempt to use differential evolution of fluids with an arrhenius equation database to try to evolve a hypercycle

I have no clue whether this approach will yield anything interesting, of course When the code is done I'll just stick it on my compute node and let it run for a few months.

Differential evolution running unsupervised for a few months....so THAT's how the KarenRei Bot was created! And now she's trying to reproduce...

 

[Hock1]

LOL!
No, Forest is way smarter than me.

As for the test drive, he says he has driven a Model S a couple of times. He says "Nice car, but nothing special. Company is a Ponzi scheme. CEO is a crook." Yeah, I still consider him a friend.

Dan

I'd say your friend is either not way smarter than you or he is a liar. No way a really smart person drives a Model S a couple of times and doesn't get IT.

 

[Artful Dodger]

(1) How do we know that the Raven 2 years from now will definitely be using the 18650 based packs? (2) Has Tesla stated the Cyber will have a 100kWh pack? (3) Where will volume cell production come from if the Cyber is as popular as it's looking to be? (4) Do you know for a fact that both Raven motors, one of which is a PMSR, are built at Fremont?

Going through your questions, while attempting to keep this Investor related.

TL;dr its about the SPEED of bringing a new class of products to production

1. Deutsche Bank, in a Research Note from Dec 13th, quoted Tesla IR Director Martin Viecha as saying that Cybertruck can be built with the current generation of batteries.

2. "The battery pack sizes for the Cybertruck were not disclosed but Tesla believes that they can achieve the targeted ranges and price points with the current generation of batteries."​

There are 2 packs currently in production: Models S/X and 3. Plaid//Tri-motor must be built up from existing generations. It isn't going to get any clearer than that. Of course you are free to believe what you choose, but my point is that Tesla's choices will:

• use the simplest path to Cybertruck production
• utilize existing production capacity resources
  
• minimize CapEx for the first 3 pickup versions

(3) Initial battery cells for $50K AWD Cyber/Raven will most likely come from Japan because its simplest to do so. There is existing idle capacity on GA1 due to the 2019 reduction in Model S/X production, so it minimizes CapEx. As I stated, we'll have to wait for Bty Day to find out Tesla's plans for large scale production (over 1K/wk).

Perhaps by 2022 when the $40K Cybertruck becomes available, there will be surplus capacity for 2170 cells. That may be why Tesla delayed that version, since right now every $40K 2WD Cybertruck produced would come at the loss of a $45K Model 3 LR not produced due to lack of battery cells.

(4) Both Raven motors DO NOT come from Fremont (but you knew the front SRPM motor is made at GF1 and shipped to Fremont for assembly, right?)

In summary, using the 18650-based 100 KWh Raven AWD powertrain from the current S/X is the simply the fastest path to launch a new class of products for Tesla, while accelerating the Mission. Since everything beyond what Tesla has announced is speculation (especially Plaid/Tri-motor), let's agree to disagree and end this here.

Cheers!

 

[GBleck]

Yeah, I agree. I think they'll need a new dedicated "GF5" for pickup. They'll need 500K/yr for Gen 2 to start, then I think that'll increase to 1 or 2 M/yr once folks in the heartland realize that their Cybertruck is still shiny new after a decade of hard use, instead of all rusty'n'busted like their old Chev/Ford/Ram.

Eventually, bty module swaps become as cheap* and convenient as an oil changes:

• ICE: 1M miles / 5K miles = 200 oil changes @ $50 each
• vs.
  
• EV: $10K for new bty modules at $100/KWhr

That's the 2020 price. What will the module price be by 2030 when you might actually need the 1st bty swap IF you're a heavy user (power tools, compressor, big mileage)?

TL;dr That's right; batteries will literally replace oil by 2030.

Why not GF1?

 

[TNEVol]

Yeah, I agree. I think they'll need a new dedicated "GF5" for pickup. They'll need 500K/yr for Gen 2 to start, then I think that'll increase to 1 or 2 M/yr once folks in the heartland realize that their Cybertruck is still shiny new after a decade of hard use, instead of all rusty'n'busted like their old Chev/Ford/Ram.

Eventually, bty module swaps become as cheap* and convenient as an oil changes:

• ICE: 1M miles / 5K miles = 200 oil changes @ $50 each
• vs.
  
• EV: $10K for new bty modules at $100/KWhr

That's the 2020 price. What will the module price be by 2030 when you might actually need the 1st bty swap IF you're a heavy user (power tools, compressor, big mileage)?

TL;dr That's right; batteries will literally replace oil by 2030.

My poor old Dodge Ram.

 

[MP3Mike]

1. Deutsche Bank, in a Research Note from Dec 13th, quoted Tesla IR Director Martin Viecha as saying that Cybertruck can be built with the current generation of batteries.

2. "The battery pack sizes for the Cybertruck were not disclosed but Tesla believes that they can achieve the targeted ranges and price points with the current generation of batteries."
There are 2 packs currently in production: Models S/X and 3. Plaid//Tri-motor must be built up from existing generations. It isn't going to get any clearer than that. Of course you are free to believe what you choose, but my point is that Tesla's choices will:

All they say is batteries, they don't say packs. I read that as they can use the existing battery cells.

(3) Initial battery cells for $50K AWD Cyber/Raven will most likely come from Japan because its simplest to do so.

Not likely, as there is no excess 18650 capacity. (Unless they shut down the S&X.)

In summary, using the 18650-based 100 KWh Raven AWD powertrain from the current S/X is the simply the fastest path to launch a new class of products for Tesla, while accelerating the Mission.

It is simpler to build more 18650 capacity in Japan and ship the cells to the US vs. building more 2170 capacity in/at GF1 and not having to ship the cells thousands of miles? Really?

They have almost two years before they are slated to start production, that is plenty of time to ramp up 2170 cell production at GF1.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why not GF1?

Where would you house the ~10K employees required for a major new product line? Reno/Sparks region is already tapped out, with unemployment around 3%

Reno No. 1 for job growth in 2018, but good luck finding a house | 2019 / 02 / 07