Does Europe build 24/7 using 3 shifts? Kinda doubt it
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
LOL. Yes, I read Bostrom. Even creepier is the galactic-smiley-face equivalent.Hmm... before you recommend this approach, you might want to play Universal Paperclips for a bit
Don't assume Tesla needs a new factory to build Cybertruck. With the projected late-2021 product launch, its uncertain Tesla could even build a new USA factory in that timeline.
Instead, I look for spare capacity and another shift on the Fremont S/X line to do final assembly for Cybertruck. Yes, that means a 17" horiz. display for S/X by then, along with the Refreshed/Plaid Model S, and more 18650 cells from Panasonic/Japan (hint: they are the SAME Tesla chemistry that goes in 2170s).
Telsa does not want to let capacity sit idle, as it does now at Fremont. Cybertruck needs no stamping, no body, no paint. Just bring pre-bent/welded hulls to final assembly. Cybertruck maximizes Fremont S/X line output ASAP, which I believe makes this plan tempting to Tesla's Board.
So possibly 50K Cybertrucks/year from 1 shift? Maybe slightly more with improving efficiencies. But I don't think this'll be the final answer. Consumers will demand more 21st Century high-tech trucks, and Tesla will find a new way to build them.
After SpaceX puts Tesla Cybertrucks on the Moon and Mars in the late-2020s, demand will literally skyrocket. Every future James T. Kirk now growing up in Riverside, Iowa will loose his mind if he can't have one. I'll look for a new mid-West factory to build that 2nd Gen pickup truck.
As for Semi, I lean toward Lathrop. Telsa plans a 'small production run' in 2020, likely meaning ~500ish semi-trucks for their logistics needs. So any tent'll do, right?
Once they have some real experience building and operating Semi, I think they'll spec out a new line. I do expect Cybertruck to be first to production, though, at Fremont.
Cheers!
Hmmm. Very interesting.
Wasn't one of the strongest explanations as to why Tesla's Lathrop facility could not be slated for vehicle production being because there wasn't the infrastructure, sub-floor and so forth necessary to hold stamping presses? Am I misremembering here, or.....<=== ===>..... (connect the dots)???????
On edit: My bad - I now see that @Rarity, @Lessmog and perhaps some others have suggested something similar. (This is some of what makes moderating so difficult: people post before reading through to the most recent post!
). But my post stands, unaltered.
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dc_h
Active Member
After the recent $500 price increase, they can drop prices $1000 in January, if needed and split the cost of the tax credit loss. They may want to cut prices going into the new year to keep demand above capacity. They may not need to if they are starting up Y production, which could reduce model 3 capacity in Fremont.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, I agree. I think they'll need a new dedicated "GF5" for pickup. They'll need 500K/yr for Gen 2 to start, then I think that'll increase to 1 or 2 M/yr once folks in the heartland realize that their Cybertruck is still shiny new after a decade of hard use, instead of all rusty'n'busted like their old Chev/Ford/Ram.Please build more that 50K Cybertrucks per year, I can't wait another year or 2 after the first gets delivered
Eventually, bty module swaps become as cheap* and convenient as an oil changes:
- ICE: 1M miles / 5K miles = 200 oil changes @ $50 each
- vs.
- EV: $10K for new bty modules at $100/KWhr
TL;dr That's right; batteries will literally replace oil by 2030.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lol, Fremont IS the battery pack and drive train factory for the $50K version of Cybertruck, which Tesla has confirmed will use the Raven powertrain.
For the rest of the components that come from GF1 (Tri-motor version), there's Tesla Semi coming next year.
anthonyj
Stonks
bhtooefr
Active Member
Re: removing mirrors: there's already some room to remove one in the US (on Models S/X, 3/Y, and Roadster), without regulatory changes. You need a mirror on the driver's side outside the car, and you need a second mirror that can see behind you.
Without regulatory changes, the Cybertruck will need a passenger side rear view mirror both because of the tonneau cover and potentially because of its weight rating. But, I remember when passenger side mirrors were still optional on economy cars (if they had a rear view mirror inside that could see out of the rear window), and nothing changed in the laws to prohibit that.
...you could, of course, just put a camera there in place of the missing mirror.
Without regulatory changes, the Cybertruck will need a passenger side rear view mirror both because of the tonneau cover and potentially because of its weight rating. But, I remember when passenger side mirrors were still optional on economy cars (if they had a rear view mirror inside that could see out of the rear window), and nothing changed in the laws to prohibit that.
...you could, of course, just put a camera there in place of the missing mirror.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
So you think Cyber is going to use 18650 based packs? I don't.
If nothing else, an example of how easy it is to spread FUD when you dedicate your time to it.
Come on, we all know Elon loaded up after breaking up with Amber Heard and Grime maintains him well.
Hmmm. Very interesting.
Wasn't one of the strongest explanations as to why Tesla's Lathrop facility could not be slated for vehicle production being because there wasn't the infrastructure, sub-floor and so forth necessary to hold stamping presses? Am I misremembering here, or.....<=== ===>..... (connect the dots)???????
On edit: My bad - I now see that @Rarity, @Lessmog and perhaps some others have suggested something similar. (This is some of what makes moderating so difficult: people post before reading through to the most recent post!
Also any parts that need stamping can be made at Fremont, which is not far away... Or they can set up stamping elsewhere in Lathrop at some stage.
If they are going to use Lathrop to make vehicles, it makes sense to make something that doesn't need painting.
Also for the Cybertruck the ability to ship stamped parts, and the lack of paint, perhaps means they can have multiple smaller factory sites in different locations.
Batteries are perhaps the same, if a lack of drying ovens (for dry cathode) can possibly allow some smaller scale facilities.
Clearly GF3 & GF4 are still following the single large factory model, and that may be how they go for everything, or simply for all vehicles that need painting.
Looks to me like Trump used his sharpie on Elon's neck...
I think it's also good that they chose the former East Germany. This will be a great opportunity to show off the quality of their construction folks and provide good paying manufacturing and professional positions to those folks. I've read (and I may be mistaken) that the East Germans were somewhat looked down upon by the Westerners... Tesla will give them a great chance to prove their capabilities to the world.
I have an 86-year-old cousin who is a native German and lives in Bavaria (a state in ex-West Germany). I once asked him if we have any other cousins living in Germany. He replied, "There is one who is an Osti (former East German), so we don't have much to do with him."
So you are right about the Osties being looked down upon, at least by my cousin who is a retired English professor from the University of Munich (Bavaria). And I assume you are right that Tesla is giving Osties a fine opportunity to demonstrate great worth to the company, Germany and the world.
These things should really become a priority given what we're facing...
Earl of FrunkPuppy on Twitter
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weat...long-dreaded-climate-feedback/?outputType=amp
Btw, there's Netflix show "Our Planet" that also documented massive numerous Anthrax outbreaks in the thawing Russian arctic, which start with the long dead animals frozen below the surface previously, but once on the surface, makes it way to infecting the herds of reindeer, which impact local population.
These instances are being suppressed from the wide knowledge by the local population being told to stay quiet and not talk about it.
All these weird sci-fi movies about ancient viruses coming back to life don't seem so far off.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
The Raven powertrain uses 18650-based 100 KWh battery packs. Unless you have evidence that contradicts what Tesla has stated publicly, that's the pack for the Dual motor Cybertruck, along with the power electronics and motors in the existing Raven.
Minimal development work by reusing an existing powertrain means faster to market. That's what VW did in 1950 when it created the Transporter van/pickup based on the Beetle powertrain. Taking that cue, that's what Telsa will do with its first pickup truck. Tesla is now all about.speed to market. So is Cybertruck.
With Model Y coming online at Fremont in Summer 2020, followed by the SR version in 2021, there is no spare 2170 cell capacity at GF3. Its not certain, but I think the current plan for both Roadster and the Tri-motor Cybertruck is to use a double-layer 200 KWh pack. Again, they'll reuse engineering effort from the Roadster for the Tri-motor.
Plaid Model S will have to fit into this production plan too, but we have fewer hints from Elon about its pack, just that Plaid will be a bigger pack than the Model S P100D. We need to hear more of Tesla's plans on Battery Day before we'll get an idea of where the needed new cell capacity will come from, and hopefully how it'll be used in production.
Cheers!
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Of course Tesla hasn't said that the Cybertruck is using the Raven powertrain, and even if it was there is almost a 0% chance that it is using the existing S/X pack. (For one you can't double stack them like has been reported that the tri-motor version will be.) And the size probably isn't the same. If the pack is going to be shared with anything it will be the new Roadster.
And then of course the big one: there is no extra supply of 18650 cells, so unless they are going to stop making Ss & Xs there are not enough cells to make a meaningful quantity of Cybertrucks.
All new Tesla products are going to use 2170 cells, as that is what they are ramping up supply of.
There is not any excess cell capacity now either. And what did Elon say? That they would ramp battery supply to match new product demands. i.e. they are trying to avoid inefficiencies of having too much, or not enough, cells supply.
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