Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dan Detweiler]

My crystal ball says you will get it.


Merry Holiday season.

Crystal? Really? Wow, the things they do with prosthetics these days.

Dan

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Are you looking at Yahoo?

Apple's stock app, which I believe is Y! based, but not sure.

Just checked again and now essentially flat, so perhaps that was it. Thanks.

 

[traxila]

What a great story for everyone here! Spectacular Christmas Show!

All the best to everyone for the Holiday Season!

And let us not forget, we are about to clock into the Roaring 20's!

I hope to exist long enough to witness the incredible industrial revolution that is taking place to its conclusion and the transformation of Earth into a renewable energy civilization. May we all witness it.

Disruption is everywhere now, in almost every field. The Roaring 20's will indeed be an apt label for both similar and different reasons than the original.

Yes, I am an optimist. Why else am I here?

 

[Davidzhao365]

Thanks so much!! What's your Reddit name?

And yes, after the Cybertruck dip I updated my numbers with:

• Increased operating efficiency and larger profit margins, because of what Tesla showed in Q3'19 financials.
• An earlier Model Y ramp, because of all the rumors and signs that Model Y is going to reach volume production much sooner than I initially anticipated.

With those revised numbers and looking again at the option market, I decided to exchange my Jan'22 $400s for twice the number of Jan'22 $500s that were trading for about 1/2 of the price (and I added 2 extra). If the stock price reaches $600 by Jan'22 I break-even on this swap from $400 strike price to $500 strike price, but I think that especially Tesla's increased operating efficiency means there's a lot of further upside beyond $600 by Jan'22. Their profits, which the market has cared a lot about in the past, should be a lot stronger as a result of the increased profit margin.

As for the $600s you're thinking of buying, I don't know your exact situation, so it's hard to give specific advice. Right now is not the best time to buy options, because premiums are very high. However, those $600s might very well still be profitable, but you have to believe there is a high likelihood of the SP going to $800 or more by then, because otherwise the risk just isn't worth it in my opinion. Simply holding the stock will also net you good returns, and is basically risk-free (if you are long term bullish on Tesla).

Again, this is not investment advice and is what I would do based on my life situation and my tolerance for risk, but if I were not holding any options right now, I might put a very small amount of money in the Jan'22 $600s. When I bought most of my options, the SP was $220-240 and there was some risk associated with buying them, but a lot less at a strike price of $400, and the potential pay off was far greater too. So I invested a fairly large amount into them. Right now premiums are much higher though, risk is also much higher at a strike price of $600, and worst of all the potential pay off is much lower as well. For you to make 10x on those, stock would have to go to $1100.

EDIT: I just noticed you said you already have 12% of your portfolio in options. I personally would not be looking to double down on that at this point in time, because the premiums are very high. Again, not investment advice, I don't know your situation, but that's what I would do in my situation. It's easy to get excited when the stock price is on a run like it is right now, but if Q4 is under expectations, and macro-economics are bad in Q1, we could be back to $350 in a few months.

Thanks for reminding me on the premium and risk again! Really appreciate it. And super happy for you for the $400 call gain and those analysis in your blog paid off!

Yes I am still on the fence. I just bought some 2022 Jan $600 call today but I am totally open to adjust the trading strategy. Some of my situation and thoughts

1. Almost all my investable money is in Tesla. We have enough saving for cost of living and expense.
2. So far the return is good and I am tempted to use the gain to buy options.
3. I worry that by the end of 2020 there will be less Call Option opportunity as more investors get into Tesla and Tesla shows stability in Revenue projection and profitability. (Is it true that if a company is more predictable there will be less market maker marking call options?)
4. 2020 estimate is really strong with 60% revenue growth range.
5. Recession is unlikely in 2020 and trade war being stabilized.

Overall I am thinking using 2022 call to capture the gain in 2020, then roll it to 2023 call after 1 year or take profit when recession risk grows in 2021. What do you think?

About some recent dip or correction:
- I am using average up method to slowly buy options from Jan to Mar.
- At each quarter timespan, I estimate that all quarter report will be strong in 2020. Q1 will be much better than 2019 Q1 due to China and Euro delivery to offset US seasonality. Q2 will be Model Y news and China fully ramp up. Q3 will be model Y half ramp up. Q4 model Y fully ramp up. We will see revenue growth each quarter and Tesla past performance shows when revenue grows in ER the stock goes up.

There is someone all in options and made a lot
$TSLA Daily Investor Discussion - December 23 … - Reddit

And there is TrendTrader007 lost millions

 

[Zaxxon]

Happy holidays, all! Go take a break from all this madness.

 

[sundaymorning]

I’ve had trouble deciding whether Jonas is a whore to TSLA bear clients, or just desperately wants to be the smartest guy in the room, able to elucidate an uber bull and uber bear case, creatively and outlandishly.

But this isn’t the first example of the timing of a report that reeks of manipulation.

He’s a whore.

Merry Christmas.

it’s ironic that he “missed” the last earnings call when Tesla shot up $50. Many here suggested he was probably throwing up in the restroom.

 

[LeonHe]

To catch the train and join the party, I finally bought at $420.69

 

[SunCatcher]

Merry Christmas to everyone; and yes, even the shorts. After all; they didn't exactly end up empty handed... they get to go away with all the coal they desire. It is after all what they've been wanting all along.

 

[pz1975]

Happy holidays to everyone here. What a great and crazy ride it’s been this year.

 

[hoang51]

Glitch in data feed.
Are you looking at Yahoo?

I saw the "glitch" on Google's Finance. Now it's all straighten out.

 

[SOULPEDL]

My 1 share at $420 is already worth $5 more... should I sell?

Merry Christmas everyone, here's to another great year.

 

[elasalle]

My 1 share at $420 is already worth $5 more... should I sell?

Merry Christmas everyone, hear's to another great year.

I bought that 1 share on margin, so yes I sold it today

 

[Mkorpal]

Happy holidays everyone.

I've got to admit I'm having a bit of anxiety right now. I've suddenly found myself a little too deep into options. Earlier today I kind of made up my mind to start taking profits, but the volume and action on a day like today makes me think we still have more room to run.

 

[woodisgood]

Happy holidays to the TMC fam!

See you Thursday, same bat time same bat channel!

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

If the stock hits close to 500 I can get the FSD and Acceleration Boost upgrade for free with my gains.

Maybe February?

 

[sundaymorning]

Anyone heard from @tivoboy who predicted that “Tesla has a higher chance of going back to $180 than going to $250s” when the stock was siting on $220s?

Like many others that come here with confidence and conviction after getting a couple bearish calls correctly, then poof, they just disappear from thin air. If anyone has his personal contact, please update us on his current state of mind. What he thinks about Q4 deliveries and Model Y? I’m up for a good laugh.

 

[RobStark]

-there have been several quite public implosions of EV startups claiming to quickly put out cars that match Tesla (Faraday Future, Lucid, Fisker’s second startup,...). I think these rocky efforts have given roadmaps of big, fast EV splashes something of a black eye.

Dec 2, 2019
Lucid Motors breaks ground on its $700 million Arizona factory – TechCrunch

Dec 19,2019
Lucid Air reservation cost reduced to $1,000, production starts late 2020 - Electrek

Lucid claims not competing directly with Model S but with Mercedes S Class. Ultimate "luxury" vehicle.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Warm and Wonderful Holidays to you all!

 

[elasalle]

Dec 2, 2019
Lucid Motors breaks ground on its $700 million Arizona factory – TechCrunch

Dec 19,2019
Lucid Air reservation cost reduced to $1,000, production starts late 2020 - Electrek

Lucid claims not competing directly with Model S but with Mercedes S Class. Ultimate "luxury" vehicle.

I saw a honest headline that said "Lucid does not want to be Tesla Killer"

 

[sundaymorning]

Dec 2, 2019
Lucid Motors breaks ground on its $700 million Arizona factory – TechCrunch

Dec 19,2019
Lucid Air reservation cost reduced to $1,000, production starts late 2020 - Electrek

Lucid claims not competing directly with Model S but with Mercedes S Class. Ultimate "luxury" vehicle.

my prediction is that Lucid sells around 5,000 EVs before shutting its doors. Tesla’s lead and battery tech will prove insurmountable.

does anybody know if Lucid has autonomous driving?