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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Most of these would be someone happy to 'buy to close' their position matching with someone who doesn't have the money to exercise their option so they are selling it.
Should have stated they were 1/22s that should be in no rush to exercise.

I guess from the seller standpoint, they may want to leverage up if these were bought 3mo ago (also a questionable buy back then).
Buyer? Yeah, maybe 'buy to close' to cap losses.
 
With intent of accumulating more shares, I sold some of my Calls today. Profits got me 200 Shares (for free)
However, sold Puts instead, so I can get it in prices from $413-420 instead - depending on which strikes I sold.
Added some new calls, just incase the SP exceeds the price of Puts i sold.
~ Cheers!!
Calls seem too rich for my blood right now. I guess I was spoiled by my (lucky) strategy to buy in the dollar or less per share range. Seems like risk/reward isn't good enough but maybe I'm missing something. (or I'm just not willing to potentially lose thousands of dollars)
 
Merry Christmas to you @KarenRei - and welcome back. :)

PS. I took me a few moments to realize that you weren't referring to some sort of silver-based product...

Sorry, spending Christmas with my family... I don't get a lot of time online. I've already been repeatedly forced to allocate time to rolling up call spreads due to this annoying endless stock runup... ;)
 
TBH, I probably won't buy immediately in the new year and instead put the money elsewhere while waiting for what feels -- to me -- like a buying opportunity in $TSLA. Why? Well, I'm already >99% $TSLA so I feel like I can afford to bide my time a bit. And, if as @StealthP3D likes to point out can happen, the stock just runs away from me... well, I have the remaining 99% of the account in $TSLA. I don't see him at these levels :eek:

I would never recommend someone who is 99% invested in one stock to buy more of the same stock. I don't like margin either - takes all the fun out of it. I actually would recommend you sell at least half of your TSLA right now (to bring you below 50%). Yes, you would probably make more being fully invested but "probably" is the key the word here. You need to be smart about these things. I think the "standard" diversification rule of having no more than 10% invested in one security to be far, far, too conservative for most people, actually, almost everyone.

But for those of you who are overly impressed with the moves to date, and who think it's currently sitting at "nosebleed" levels, I have a chart for you to look at the big picture in relative terms. This chart will help illustrate why I think it's a bad idea to sell TSLA simply because you think it has appreciated so much, so quickly. It's a chart from the IPO ten years ago with the price appreciation graphed logarithmically which displays the price appreciation in terms of percentage gains. Because a $100 move from $300 to $400 is not the same as a $100 move from $15 to $115.

Looking
2019-12-26s.png

We are barely above our all-time highs from 2014! Now I'll be the first to admit it was over-priced then. I looked long and hard at it all through Tesla's early growth (including during the IPO) and never pulled the trigger until last year when I felt it had finally developed a good risk/reward ratio. You can say I was "wrong", and in hindsight, I was "wrong" but we don't invest with hindsight and I felt the risks of bankruptcy outweighed the potential gains. I've been "wrong" on a lot of stock I didn't buy (like AMZN, NFLX, etc.). But I also haven't invested in a lot of companies that went "tits up". However, now I think TSLA is a screaming buy for anyone who looks at the bigger picture. I went in "big" at $184 in June by doubling the position I had built up starting at $263, $240 something and $230 something as it fell from 2019 Q1 results. But it's not too late to take big advantage of Tesla's likely successes over the next 5 years.

That said, no, don't go from 99% TSLA to 100% TSLA, lol! :eek: Not even if it declines back to $380 temporarily (that's a very small move in the bigger picture BTW). Not even if it declines back to $180 (however unlikely that is).
 
Accounting terminology can be a bit complicated especially since many terms are similar but not the same (expense, provision, reserve, accrual, deferral, etc.). This post if meant for non-finance members (finance members please skip)

To keep this post brief, I will cover only 2 of the terms that are very relevant to Tesla: Deferred Revenue and Reserve.
I will use the following example:
When Tesla sells an automobile for $57k ($50k base and $7k FSD) they have to defer the revenue on the FSD until earned and also record a reserve for warranty expenses (lets say $0.5k)

Here would be the entries:
FSD Deferral:
Debit Revenues $7,000 (reduces revenue on the income statement)
Credit Deferred Revenue $7,000 (a balance sheet account)

Once the FSD is earned, the entry above (or a portion) is reversed (Revenue goes up and balance sheet account goes down)

Warranty Provision
Debit Warranty Provision $500 (increases expenses on the income statement)
Credit Warranty Reserve $500 (a balance sheet account).

When this particular vehicle incurs warranty service, the expense does not go to the income statement but rather gets deducted from the Warranty Reserve that was set up when the vehicle was originally sold.

Summary:
Reserves
are usually expenses that have been recognized but not yet paid.
Deferred Revenues are usually revenues that have been collected but not yet earned.
Both sit on the Balance Sheet as credits.

When discussing the upside potential of FSD, we are discussing when the FSD Deferred Revenue will get released; however, if you say instead "when the accrual gets released" you're not technically right but it is understood.

I think Tesla have big room to adjust Warranty provision, If I look at my own case, I own Model 3 since September 2018, I only had one minor warranty service done, Model 3 is highly refine derivative of Model S therefore very little chance to incur major warranty cost.
 
A better question is, "Why would you NOT buy low strike LEAPs (vs buying shares)?"

The Jan 2022 $100 LEAPS sell at virtually no time premium. Their price will rise and fall dollar-for-dollar with the shares. If the shares have a major decline, the LEAPS will decline LESS (in dollars)!

What's not to like?

The 2022 $100 calls are trading for $337.65 right now, when TSLA is $430.00 - i.e. the low strike price calls are trading at a $7.65 premium.

2022 $100 puts are going for $6.60 - so in fact it's $1 cheaper to buy the stock and $100 puts to insure against catastrophic loss.

In general there's no free lunch: stock and option prices are closely arbitrated.
 
A better question is, "Why would you NOT buy low strike LEAPs (vs buying shares)?"

The Jan 2022 $100 LEAPS sell at virtually no time premium. Their price will rise and fall dollar-for-dollar with the shares. If the shares have a major decline, the LEAPS will decline LESS (in dollars)!

What's not to like?
I can't buy leaps. Have limited option choices available. Maybe need to re-apply with broker for more choices.
 
I keep moving the goalposts back in terms of selling a little stock just to have cash to buy more when it re-visits the 300s. Maybe it'll go a leeetle bit higher and THEN I'll sell just a little. :)

How many others of you are doing the same thing?

Yup, on Jan 2nd at whatever the price is then. I usually sell ~25-30% and wait to get back later at lower prices.

Shanghai hasn't started deliveries yet (at least I didn't see any info about that) and that was seen as a requirement by many to comfortably hit 100k+ deliveries in Q4. Tesla may still hit that without Shanghai (it was really close last time), but we all know the media love to exaggerate all misses and with TSLA usually good news = bad news. My selling has nothing to do with the actual company performance (which is amazing), but everything to do with the market perception.

Probably will buy back somewhere mid Jan.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: BornToFly
Shanghai hasn't started deliveries yet (at least I didn't see any info about that) and that was seen as a requirement by many to comfortably hit 100k+ deliveries in Q4.

Conceding the vaugueness of 'comfortable'
Some may have that view, but assuming a 12 week quarter, they only need an 8,333 per week build rate to hit 100k production.
With 7k per week 3 and 16k S/X, they're in the 6 figures. As a benchmark, Q3 was 96k production and 97k deliveries with 17k of those being S/X.
100k deliveries can be helped by decrease inventory and in transit figures. Given New Year's Eve deliveries at the plant, a reduction in unsold cars seems likely.

Enh, who am I kidding, it will be 83k at least
, and we all know it.
 
When discussing the upside potential of FSD, we are discussing when the FSD Deferred Revenue will get released; however, if you say instead "when the accrual gets released" you're not technically right but it is understood.

Not to belabor the point, but I still don't understand what @dc_h meant when he said;

"They guided about 1/4 if reserve to accrue each quarter going forward.

I assume he meant Tesla guided for 1/4 of the FSD accruals to be recognized as income each quarter going forward. But only because that's my understanding of what management said.

And my point was that the accrued FSD revenue has been growing since Q2 but we don't know the exact rate of growth. In other words, if FSD revenue is recognized at the rate management guided towards, it will be considerably more in dollar terms than 1/4 of the known accrued FSD revenue that was on the books in Q2.
 
I rarely post. Just enjoying reading and being up to date. I have 1K shares bought over the years.

Not selling a single share!

Not until it reaches $1K. Then will only sell a little. I think next 5 years will be amazing. Best time to sell is never (unless a little cash is needed occasionally).

Happy 2020 all!


Richard
 
The 2022 $100 calls are trading for $337.65 right now, when TSLA is $430.00 - i.e. the low strike price calls are trading at a $7.65 premium.

2022 $100 puts are going for $6.60 - so in fact it's $1 cheaper to buy the stock and $100 puts to insure against catastrophic loss.

In general there's no free lunch: stock and option prices are closely arbitrated.

And that strategy won't work favorably for TSLA short-sellers, they have to actually buy the stock if they want to stop paying all the cost associated with borrowing the stock to short it.

I wonder if the price delta between buying the stock vs. using the above strategy could be used to identify periods when there are abnormally high levels of short-covering happening.
 
So I don't recall hearing about an EV startup called Neuron that has unveiled their electric semi. The article is thin on details (unveiled with no price, no range, no hauling capacity?) so I'm guessing another flash-in-the-pan attempt to fleece investors, but what do I know? Has anyone else heard of them? All I see are lots of planned vehicles with no real information.

A California EV startup unveiled a fully electric semi-truck called 'TORQ' to compete with Tesla and Hyundai
12-06-19 — Neuron EV
 
Here are two things that couldn't be more obvious: 1) No single investment stays positive forever. 2) It's near impossible to time the top.

You are correct about #2. But we are nowhere near the top. If Tesla performs nominally in the next 6-9 years the share price won't top out for at least 7-10 years.

And you are totally incorrect about #1. Most good investments, not even great ones, stay positive forever (once they climb out of their normal range of volatility).

Given that, I think the prudent thing to do is not try to time the top, but rather take small pieces off the table as the investment rises.

I know you are trying to make that strategy sound reasonable and prudent but no amount of twisted logic will make a smart person believe that. You are letting your human emotions interfere with logic. That's a no-no when it comes to investing.
 
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