Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
On average hedge funds lost 10%~15% this year when s&p went up 28%. I have a suspiscion that the average hedge fund shorted tesla this year.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
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On average hedge funds lost 10%~15% this year when s&p went up 28%. I have a suspiscion that the average hedge fund shorted tesla this year.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
And TSLA is up 38.7% in 2019
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
It's very hard to predict things like this but that's kind of what I'm thinking too. But even if that prediction was known in advance to be 100% accurate, it's difficult to use it to your advantage (even if willing to swing-trade) because we still wouldn't know how much it would go up between now and then, and how much it would drop after.
I do think the end of this year and the beginning of next will see a significant influx of new money. Part of it will come from gifts. Yes, there is a significant amount of money gifted near the end of each year from wealthy baby boomers and older to their children and/or grandchildren. This began as an annual tradition of wealthy people to reduce inheritance taxes. Even though inheritance taxes have been greatly reduced and only apply to estates of over about $11.5 million, the tradition continues even amongst those worth less than the threshold (because one never knows how much their estate might be worth by the time they die or whether the estate tax threshold value will be lowered in the future). Since estates can be taxed at up to 40% the incentive to transfer the wealth earlier is strong.
I suspect many gen-X'ers and millennials that are already making ends meet will invest some or all of it in their favorite companies. And Tesla is in the top 10. Cumulatively, this is a lot of new money entering the markets in the next couple of weeks. This doesn't preclude a mini-correction from happening, it will just reduce the severity of it and boost the strength of the rallies.
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$52,500 without a monitor.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Maybe those of us who are swimming in huge TSLA option profits (realized or not) need our own thread to gloat over our profits! LOL!
I still have really high hopes for my Jan. 2021 $690 calls even though they are already up over 19 fold. And my Jan 2020 $320 calls have gone up over 4 fold. I haven't sold a single one yet!
Screw dat, gimme da car!
My take on influence of shorts covering effecting stock price is
Short interest dropped about 1.7 million shares in the first half of this month. Which is about 160 thousand per trading day. Well if 10 million shares get traded each market day the short covering is only 1.6% of the activity.
Which makes suspect it isn't what has been driving the gains.
Short interest dropped about 1.7 million shares in the first half of this month. Which is about 160 thousand per trading day. Well if 10 million shares get traded each market day the short covering is only 1.6% of the activity.
Which makes suspect it isn't what has been driving the gains.
It's been close to a steady $10 rise per day. Feels intentional. I did hedge by selling one of my three 12/27 calls just now but I anticipate the rise to continue. Whatever is causing it won't change until we see Q4 details. (assuming it does change, which I assume will be an increase)
Those nuts seem to be doubling down. At least based on short interest and what I'm reading in the TSLAQ trashcan.
A bit more than that really, because you'll likely want a camera and some additional storage. And then there's sales tax in most jurisdictions.
A counter argument might be that even though 10 million shares are traded each day many could be the same share sold/bought repeatedly. So if it were only 2 million shares that were actually being traded then the short covering becomes 8 percent of this activity.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Interesting observation. That strongly indicates shorts were not a dominant factor in the gains seen in the first half of December. However, the steepest part of the December rise has been in the second half. So it makes sense that there was a higher amount of short covering as the run gained steam. Partially countering that is the fact that the average trading volume for the last 10 days has been 11.6 million shares.
My take is the shorts have been lending us a big helping hand (at their expense) but this bull run is not primarily driven by short covering. I do think we might be surprised how much the short interest declined in the second half of December.
The best part about the shorts covering slowly? I love gifts that are recurring! And we deserve it after the way they jerked the share price down the entire first half of the year! Payback is only a bitch if you are the one on the hook. For those of you who like to fish: "we got a whopper on the line, boys and girls, let's reel 'em in!".
Maybe those of us who are swimming in huge TSLA option profits (realized or not) need our own thread to gloat over our profits! LOL!
I still have really high hopes for my Jan. 2021 $690 calls even though they are already up over 19 fold. And my Jan 2020 $320 calls have gone up over 4 fold. I haven't sold a single one yet!
Hi StealthP3D.
I hold many Jan. 2021 $690 calls. I am lost as to what to do about them because they grew to 60% of my total portfolio and I am not sure what the hell to do at this point. I don't like options that are so out of the money with 1 year expire to be 60% of my portfolio. At the same time it hurts me to even think about selling them because I am waiting on SP 500 inclusion and I think TSLA will reach 550-700 a share in 2020. Whats your philosophy regarding these particular options? I am glad to hear that someone else is in this position.
Misinformed? No. Most of them just spout whatever makes money for them. Idiots at Wedbush just increased it from 270 to 370. Why? because they look silly at 270, so they came up with a number that is bearish but not too far off to make them look stupid. Supposing Tesla comes down to say 380, they will push their target to 310. Their job is to put a downward pressure, and give the impression they have given a serious thought to it. All calculated - not misinformed - bull *sugar*.
There are 4 pillars that are quite eager to take Tesla down;
- TSLA Shorts
- Analysts whose have shorted TSLA, or looking for a lower entry point, or who stand to gain indirectly by beating the SP down
- Entities that are threatened by Tesla & SpaceX success - Legacy auto, fossil fuel interests, UAW, NADA, Russians
- Main stream media, who are not getting a penny from Tesla but survive big time on legacy auto advts.
I am not really losing my sleep on the first three. Shorts have low moral compass and are expected to lie and spread FUD. Analysts are greedy Wall street money hounds, so whatever makes them money they will do. I don't have to mention about the organizations and industries that will lose big time on Tesla success. Now average Tesla customers who buy their products understand these and are not carried away by the FUD campaign.
Now the last pillar - MSM - is where things are crossing the line. Because MSM still has some sway on the consciousness of general public. There is a huge section of ignorant public who believe what they read from Forbes, WSJ, NYT, LAT is true - especially when they in unison spout the same message - Tesla makes shoddy cars, has poor & unethical business practices, low employee morale lead by a charlatan and fraud, and this thing is going to implode anytime now.
Our anger and frustration should be directed on MSM and not on the shorts
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As some of you may know, I'm a professional cryptographer. At the time, my boss came to me with the paper and asked "does this make sense?" I was deep into a different project at the time, but hey, you don't ignore questions from your boss, so I looked at all the blockchain technical stuff, and told him that the crypto looked fine in principle, but that I didn't see anything on the economic side that made me believe it was more than an academic exercise. Well, I still believe that now :-(.
ZachF
Active Member
"twisted logic" ouch
First, to get more specific, I'm investing in TSLA options, not common equity. I don't care how great you think TSLA is going to be over the next x years (and I personally am uber bullish), the volatility of TSLA is such that anyone investing in options is playing Russian Roulette. Eventually the gun goes off (black swans happen) and you lose most of your investment. But, if you are taking profits on the way up, and putting them into safe assets, then you can still win very big. Much, much bigger than just investing in common equity the whole time. What constitutes "safe assets" depends on your situation, it certainly shouldn't be all cash, and it could include TSLA common equity.
But even if I was only investing in TSLA common equity, I wouldn't put all of my investment money into just one equity. I'm not talking about classic diversification here, that is for my "safe assets". But there is a middle ground between "no asset should be more than 10%" and one asset being 100%.
Again, not advice. Every one of us is in different position. If I was young and just starting out with a small stake, sure, put it all in one risky, but promising, asset. In the worst case and it goes bust, I just start over, I've got plenty of time to succeed. But I'm not young, and my stake is large enough that putting 100% in just one asset is suicidal even if that asset has a 95% chance of succeeding.
Another sign of the changing times re EV's
Here is a "tech article" paid for by Polestar on Huffpost:
Ten Facts About Electric Cars You’ve Been Getting Wrong | HuffPost
And its brand agnostic.
Here is a "tech article" paid for by Polestar on Huffpost:
Ten Facts About Electric Cars You’ve Been Getting Wrong | HuffPost
And its brand agnostic.
Another uptick towards closing. Well, I expect tomorrow to be another good day.
Interesting example on the power (and in my case, purpose) of calls:
Cost for a single January 17/2020 350 call was $262. Liquidated the call today to purchase 19 shares from sale proceeds. Actual cost per share therefore was $13.79.
As a long term TSLA investor, I see 'profit' is an irrelevant consideration. It yields fiat currency, which is short term, inflationary and disposable.
Of course, I do understand that any asset can be lost, one way or another. It is therefore always a matter of judging where your resources have more meaning and long term security.
Cost for a single January 17/2020 350 call was $262. Liquidated the call today to purchase 19 shares from sale proceeds. Actual cost per share therefore was $13.79.
As a long term TSLA investor, I see 'profit' is an irrelevant consideration. It yields fiat currency, which is short term, inflationary and disposable.
Of course, I do understand that any asset can be lost, one way or another. It is therefore always a matter of judging where your resources have more meaning and long term security.
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