Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lklundin]

The fact that Tesla is not willing to refund them the $1875 back and is instead saying they have the option of picking up in early Jan or cancelling their order tells me Tesla has a lot of orders on the books to take their spot. Combine this with the fact that there's been zero end of year discounting and that prices were actually raised throughout Q4, and there's pretty strong evidence that Q1 demand is going to just fine.

An important demand indicator for me will be that Tesla will provide no configuration of any Model with unlimited, free Supercharging - also because IMHO Elon Musk was right when he said that unlimited, free supercharging incurs suboptimal behaviour.

 

[mtndrew1]

Maybe it's just the conspiracy theorist in me, but something smells funny here... also odd about the service aspect. I would have thought that given the usage of this particular M3, there would have been more attention paid to getting it diagnosed and repaired quickly.

But maybe I'm just suspicious..

Unlike C/D’s other long term cars they bought this one themselves, which is the first time they’ve ever done so.

As such they’re probably just being treated like any other customer in stark contrast to the white-glove business for a manufacturer car.

 

[lklundin]

Totally agree, the twenties will be the decade of the battery.

I'm expecting The State of California to do some big battery buying the next few years...

Requiring all first responder locations to have standalone battery backup etc...

By the way, isn't it nice to be able to say; "The Twenties" instead of whatever the last 2 decades were named;
the aughts, the zeros, the 10s, the teens...?

The bell has rung, so let me note that I believe the previous century had 'Roaring Twenties' and I am curious what those of this century will be?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

An important demand indicator for me will be that Tesla will provide no configuration of any Model with unlimited, free Supercharging - also because IMHO Elon Musk was right when he said that unlimited, free supercharging incurs suboptimal behaviour.

Aren't Model S and X currently being offered with free unlimited supercharging? (which is important because it takes away an obstacle for current owners with free supercharging to upgrade).

 

[RFernatt]

The bell has rung, so let me note that I believe the previous century had 'Roaring Twenties' and I am curious what those of this century will be?

The 'Electrifying Twenties'? The 'Terawatt Twenties'?

 

[JustMe]

An important demand indicator for me will be that Tesla will provide no configuration of any Model with unlimited, free Supercharging - also because IMHO Elon Musk was right when he said that unlimited, free supercharging incurs suboptimal behaviour.

Fair point, but people suck at math and determining the best purchase value. There will be people who are enticed to make an $85k purchase by the dangling carrot of unlimited free supercharging, which is actually a small reward. Smart, charming, and good looking people, to be sure. But anyway if It helps sell higher trims, why not. Just need to keep up with supercharging capacity.

 

[Joe F]

• I drive a Tesla Model X. i paid nearly 120K for it. Thats a lot of Cheddar. I have HW3. I got latest update. We are long way from FSD. Sorry for those who think otherwise and I dont want to argue bout it. It's simply a huge problem and not going to be solved any time soon. The way I look at it is Tesla is better than all other carmakers, and their self driving is way ahead of all the others, so this helps them sell cars and this is good for the environment, the world and investors. They will get better and better over time.

Unless you are in the beta program under NDA, which I doubt, you do not have the "latest update" which unleashes the full potential of your HW3.

 

[lklundin]

As Rebecca Lindland spoke throughout this interview, her credibility continued to drop with each sentence.
In the final minute, all credibility was lost once she made this statement,
"Originally they had talked about already producing 2-3 thousand model 3s – at this point they delivered 15 – they're actually not starting to really do more mass assembly until about another 6 months or so".

How in the world do these people get air time?

Well, to turn this blatant misinformation into a positive I am hoping to get an optimistic buy order filled before the Q4 P&D report is out, the next EU trading day is Thursday so with the time zones that should work out.

 

[Mike Smith]

I just saw this thing:
Tesla delivers its first cars made in its Chinese Gigafactory

Haven't heard of this Rebecca Lindland lady until now. She seems convinced Tesla is only assembling Model 3s at the GF3, receiving kits from the US. Sounds exactly like what Dana Hull was claiming on twitter last night with the CKD stuff. Yet I specifically remember seeing photos of the stamping press, the body shop and the paint shop at the GF3 in the Q3 update letter.

It's good to know anybody can now just offer an opinion on Tesla on a widely distributed platform and never be challenged as to what their sources are...

Rebecca Lindland is a devout Tesla hater, and she's been at it for years. She's just like Bob Lutz - constantly negative and wrong about Tesla, yet for some reason she always gets invited back to give her latest opinions.

 

[CorneliusXX]

So, $16 off on 12M volume because of Cowen?
Macros were off too, but multiplier looks excessive.

I don't get it how every time someone unknown is able to cause so much damage and get away with it after their statements prove to be false.

Oh well, just another day.

we seem to be failing upwards lately. I wouldn't be too worried about it.

 

[kengchang]

So according to ev-sales blog, S&X should be easily beat 17400 in Q3

 

[lklundin]

On the topic of criminal CEOs, I just saw that Carlos Ghosn has apparently abused his bail and has escaped to Libanon:
Carlos Ghosn Arrives in Lebanon After Fleeing Japan

I guess he plans to do some 4:20 there...

 

[dakh]

Other than direct financial beat, was there ever a case with TSLA when anticipated news turned out positive and stock didn't drop or stayed level? I can't remember any and I'm pretty sure overall unless there's something fairly short term and specific that pushed the stock up, most cases we see a drop. Also, there goes my theory of someone using TSLA to prop their 2019 results...

 

[M3Rider]

Btw, here's another confirmation
Tesla Meets Output Goal for Its Model 3s in China

Song Gang, who oversees the production at the factory, said Monday that Tesla can now produce 28 vehicles or more an hour and has implemented a 10-hour workday.

 

[dakh]

On the topic of criminal CEOs, I just saw that Carlos Ghosn has apparently abused his bail and has escaped to Libanon:
Carlos Ghosn Arrives in Lebanon After Fleeing Japan

I guess he plans to do some 4:20 there...

It is unclear whether the former carmaker’s chairman has escaped house arrest in Japan or whether a deal has been struck for his release. Japanese and Lebanese authorities were not immediately available for comment.

 

[capster]

Maybe it's just the conspiracy theorist in me, but something smells funny here... also odd about the service aspect. I would have thought that given the usage of this particular M3, there would have been more attention paid to getting it diagnosed and repaired quickly.

But maybe I'm just suspicious..

What are the odds? A high profile magazine gets a failure at this time of the year when the shorts are behind the eight ball and reveals it near the end of trading for the year, during a short week (the kind in which shorts have typically taken advantage)?

Suspicious?!? Hardly! /s

Shorts might as well hang out a sign "Today’s drop entirely brought to you by short sellers. Please donate your shares. We desperately need them."

 

[TNEVol]

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Analysts can get lot of things wrong - but they have superior sources of data than most of us. My guess is he is going with some 3rd party company that supplies this kind of market intelligence - who might be tallying US registrations too, apart from European & Chinese. So, we have to take this as a serious possibility.

I see the use of registrations as a proxy for deliveries at times here but I don't see the validity in the US at least on a quarterly basis. My new car purchases including Teslas have taken 2 weeks to a month to register. How could a third party compile useful numbers in the final month of a quarter especially given the end of month push? I could understand delivery estimates but not registrations.

 

[carterm2]

Aren't Model S and X currently being offered with free unlimited supercharging? (which is important because it takes away an obstacle for current owners with free supercharging to upgrade).

What is the first thing you have to do after buying your first Tesla? For me, after plugging it into the wall and discovering that charging it was not going to work at 1-2 M/h, was to get a wall charger installed. Tesla provided a referral to an installer, and I was off and running with full range every morning for my wife. It took longer and cost more than it should have, the referred electrician charged at least triple what it should have cost. Tesla should do better here... since they also claim to be in the power business, they could have easily had a second sale and a possible solar customer had I not felt I had been fed to the sharks. I agree with EM about free SC causing bad behavior, but I feel strongly that helping the customer charge at home has been an opportunity lost... and if they are going to drop the ball, they shouldn't complain when a MS or MX customer spends more time at the SC than they should. ($500 for Tesla Wall Charger, $2500 install (a few hours work and a city inspection). This is the Bay Area and yes it is embarrassing.

 

[EVNow]

On the topic of criminal CEOs, I just saw that Carlos Ghosn has apparently abused his bail and has escaped to Libanon:
Carlos Ghosn Arrives in Lebanon After Fleeing Japan

I guess he plans to do some 4:20 there...

Interesting. He can probably fight extradition and win citing harsh detention conditions and skewed criminal justice system.

Examining Carlos Ghosn and Japan's system of 'hostage justice' | The Japan Times

 

[TradingInvest]

What are the odds? A high profile magazine gets a failure at this time of the year when the shorts are behind the eight ball and reveals it near the end of trading for the year, during a short week (the kind in which shorts have typically taken advantage)?

Suspicious?!? Hardly! /s

Shorts might as well hang out a sign "Today’s drop entirely brought to you by short sellers. Please donate your shares. We desperately need them."

When Car and Driver announced they started a long term Model 3 test, I thought, watch out, they will say something nasty about the car at a critical time. I'm not surprised. I trust Car and Driver as much as I trust Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne.