Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lklundin]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/01/10/tesla-battery-range/

"But car industry experts also say the company has taken more risks than traditional automakers, making its batteries ever-denser and out of different materials than competitors. Some point to a handful of spontaneous battery fires under investigation by federal regulators as potential fallout."

“My belief is that Tesla is more willing to risk their battery not lasting 8 to 10 years and just dealing with the consequences on the back-end,” said Michael Ramsey.


The FUD out there is getting desperate for something... anything...


They are trying to spin Tesla batteries being years ahead as a "bad thing". Crazy.

Well, "belief" does not depend on observation, so it's the right word given that Tesla batteries come with a warranty of 8 years (or 192k km).

 

[EVNow]

The important information are the absolute figures cited by @ggr, the fact that this rally was not significantly magnified by a short squeeze in that phase yet apparently, +0.1M or -1.2M change in short interest made no meaningful difference on a week that traded 43 million TSLA shares at price levels up to $435.

To the extent tracking short interest is of any use - it would be to figure out what changes are happening. The last set of numbers from Ihor didn't ad much information. Ofcourse, I've not looked at other periods to see if how accurate he is in figuring out the changes.

 

[TradingInvest]

There we are - thanks.
#3: "Public Investment Fund"? Now, there's an innovative name! I wonder who that really is....or whether it's Norge, Japan, New York City, and all others agglomerated???? Surely not.

It's full name is Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia. They still hold just below 5%. In 2018 after they bought the shares, they hedged it against potential drop by selling covered Calls and buying Puts.

I am interested to see who have been adding large amount in Q4. GS probably bought a lot of Calls. We may never find out.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Line 12, Elon bought another 175,000 shares!

... on which shares, Elon is now up $47.7M (net) since May 20, 2018

Not a bad investment, wot?

Cheers!

 

[willow_hiller]

Got a bit of a scoop for you all that relates to Elon's "Soon." answer to feature complete FSD.

At least two HW2.0 Model X drivers are reporting seeing a $1,000 discount on FSD: FSD for EAP owners, reduced to 3k until 8/16 Two things to infer from this:

1. Tesla's decided they cannot easily upgrade HW2.0 vehicles and is possibly giving them the discount for this reason.
2. And more related to investing, more HW3 exclusive features must be coming soon if FSD discounts are already being applied.

 

[PatientMan]

Can someone please share the link to the excel file that is tracking the market cap of all the big auto manufacturers? Thanks

 

[imherkimer]

Quasi-serious question: Were I to set aside a few days this summer at our Lodge to host such a gathering, any show of hands at who to some probability of reality would like to attend and could make the trip? If you ever have wanted to get to Alaska (again, for some of you), maybe this could create the right incentive. So far, the only member we've hosted has been @gene.
Time's short here, as our book fills fast and we've precious few multi-day blocks where we've good availability remaining.

Fabulous! I’m in! I’ll start planning

 

[Artful Dodger]

Jeep H. Cherokee

FTFY.

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch - 2.5 hours ago: 5 things Tesla bears keep getting wrong about this stock

As a side note and not just in this case, whoever might have been encouraging Tesla FUD by the media and expert commentators, appears to have pulled away the cookie jar.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Also, like, these are EVs. Sitting unplugged for the better part of a year. Even if there's no active battery management (I don't know for VW--is there?), those packs are not being well taken care of.

SURE it'll have active battery managment, in the Summer, after the software update. /S

 

[samppa]

Got a bit of a scoop for you all that relates to Elon's "Soon." answer to feature complete FSD.

At least two HW2.0 Model X drivers are reporting seeing a $1,000 discount on FSD: FSD for EAP owners, reduced to 3k until 8/16 Two things to infer from this:

1. Tesla's decided they cannot easily upgrade HW2.0 vehicles and is possibly giving them the discount for this reason.
2. And more related to investing, more HW3 exclusive features must be coming soon if FSD discounts are already being applied.

I fail to see the logic here. If it's more difficult and expensive to upgrade hw2, wouldn't it make more sense to raise the price?

 

[kbM3]

Quasi-serious question: Were I to set aside a few days this summer at our Lodge to host such a gathering, any show of hands at who to some probability of reality would like to attend and could make the trip? If you ever have wanted to get to Alaska (again, for some of you), maybe this could create the right incentive. So far, the only member we've hosted has been @gene.
Time's short here, as our book fills fast and we've precious few multi-day blocks where we've good availability remaining.

PS: Very nice post about a very nice person.

I’d be interested. Is there more to do than hunting/fishing?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Got a bit of a scoop for you all that relates to Elon's "Soon." answer to feature complete FSD.

At least two HW2.0 Model X drivers are reporting seeing a $1,000 discount on FSD: FSD for EAP owners, reduced to 3k until 8/16 Two things to infer from this:

1. Tesla's decided they cannot easily upgrade HW2.0 vehicles and is possibly giving them the discount for this reason.
2. And more related to investing, more HW3 exclusive features must be coming soon if FSD discounts are already being applied.

1 doesn’t make sense to me. Why would they lower the price, drawing in more purchases, for something they know or believe they can’t deliver? If you have EAP, the only features unlocked with FSD are HW3 exclusive.

 

[Chickenlittle]

So I’ve been tracking what people have been saying about smart summon as a way to measure FSD progress.

reddit post yesterday most people say Smart summon is still nothing more than a party trick

We were able to use it to get our model 3 out of a parking space that two other drivers boxed us into and couldnt open the doors

 

[willow_hiller]

1 doesn’t make sense to me. Why would they lower the price, drawing in more purchases, for something they know or believe they can’t deliver? If you have EAP, the only features unlocked with FSD are HW3 exclusive.

Fair point, I was just taking a stab in the dark. I thought it could be "Sorry we can't upgrade your car to HW3, current owners get a $1,000 refund and those who haven't purchased it yet can buy the EAP features for $6,000." Or it could be a glitch in their pricing while they're making other changes. But so far it only seems to affect Model X, and primarily HW2.0.

Model X #1: FSD back to $6K : teslamotors

Model X #2: FSD for EAP owners, reduced to 3k until 8/16

And HW3 Model X: FSD back to $6K : teslamotors

But beyond the relevance for this implying some changes are coming for FSD "soon" this is getting a bit OT.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Early Model 3 owners with EAP are not getting a discount. This sucks.

 

[dw4ngg]

MarketWatch - 2.5 hours ago: 5 things Tesla bears keep getting wrong about this stock

As a side note and not just in this case, whoever might have been encouraging Tesla FUD by the media and expert commentators, appears to have pulled away the cookie jar.

QQ

In fiscal 2018, General Motors GM, -1.23% sold 3.6 million vehicles in China and just under 3.5 million in North America. Or better yet, take Daimler DAI, -0.50%, which sold 677,000 Mercedes-Benz vehicles in Greater China in 2018 vs. less than its 330,000 luxury cars sold in the U.S. over the same period.

UQQ

 

[ajax]

Can someone please share the link to the excel file that is tracking the market cap of all the big auto manufacturers? Thanks

My brother made this cool Google Doc a while back that updates in real-time: Top 25 Automakers by Market Cap

 

[Fact Checking]

Elon just tweeted that feature-complete FSD will be released soon.

Buff Mage on Twitter

Right on cue:

The HW3 FSD chip has been built into most (all?) European Model 3's delivered so far I believe. I think activation might happen in Q1'2020 - January or so.

The main demand level Tesla is using in Q4 so far is the Pickup Truck reveal, not sure they need HW3 activation this year.

 

[Green Pete]

So musk changed twitter name to buff mage. So a reference to Warcraft but any interpretations? Ideas from my kids, a joke (magicians are thin not buff) or a powerful magician?

In MMO/D&D parlances there are a family of spells known as buffs Status effect - Wikipedia

IMO Musk is insinuating his job is to amplify the powers and skills of his employees.

Just my two cents.

It's a little hard to interpret but if that is the correct interpretation and if people who work for him are able to understand that intent I would considering it a very positive upper management attitude. However it feels a little obscure which makes it less likely to have the proper effect. Were it to work it would be very meta, classifying himself as a buff mage, implying he is a support class for his workforce is empowering the the actual workforce moral, which is in this sense, a buff.