Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[whitenight]

Another interesting tidbit is at 39:00:

Elon: "We've also managed to get a lot more output from existing equipment in in the US as well, so the Model 3 body line in in Fremont for example was only ever meant to do five thousand cars, Model 3's a week and it's doing seven thousand."​

Yet in 2017 we were told to have zero concern about reaching a 10k weekly run rate in 2018. Elon should start taking notes to keep his story straight.

MODERATOR NOTE:
Beginning your time on TMC with a mischievously false post is unhealthy for your long term here.

To other readers: MANY clarifications follow in subsequent posts.

 

[Causalien]

This is spreading faster than we thought. (or just due to suppressed information) Japan, south korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam and Myanmar all have reported cases.

Expert estimates 3000 cases based on models. It is probably beyond the medical staff's ability to track everyone who interacted with them. Has the potential to explode when the great migration of Chinese new year happens as Wuhan is a pretty major travel hub with a rail line and long river traffic.

Current analysis of the virus dna suggest it comes from bats. Origin suspect is bat meat sold in a traditional market.

Viral transmission amongst human becoming more effective after each generation. Human to human transmission is all but confirmed now that 18 medical staff already got infected.

Chinese gov is doing exactly what they did last time with sars. Play by play. Expect information suppression and do-nothing approach so as to not cause panic during Chinese New Year.

Ahhh, what a

Apparently the Chinese government has known about this since October 30th.

And the CCP only officially confirmed the case because one of the medical staff accidentally leaked news that a patient infected 14 medical staff while discussion something else.

Several cases confirms this as they've never visited the traditional market where the disease originated from.

We are probably going to hear of a sudden increase of infected cases that doesn't fit a disease that just got discovered with a 12 day incubation period as reality catches up to suppressed information.

 

[RationalOptimist]

A big thank you!!

+1

 

[jerry33]

When you stomp on a Tesla's "gas" pedal it goes, and goes quickly, on the vast majority of ICE, you've got quite a gap between the pedal being pushed and the car actually moving and then when it does move, it doesn't move very rapidly - so you have some time to realise and react fast enough to avoid an accident.

Hitting the wrong pedal on a Tesla is more likely to have consequences than any other car.

You are not supposed to drive any car, including a Tesla, like a slot car racer (e.g. either full acceleration or full brakes). If you are gentle on the pedal, an instance of pedal confusion won't do anything. I have had one instance of pedal confusion (the second or third day I had the car). Went forward about a metre. Then I thought "Oh, so that's what pedal confusion feels like". Never happened again. (Of course, Tesla could have done like the Prius did and have a continuous beep every time you were in reverse. I'll bet many people would just love that

 

[Fact Checking]

​

Yet in 2017 we were told to have zero concern about reaching a 10k weekly run rate in 2018. Elon should start taking notes to keep his story straight.

That's false. Their original plans in 2017 were for 10k/week Model 3 output at Fremont, with a second phase after the first 5k/week milestone, with extra capital expenses and the original automation plans.

Those plans changed in 2018 due to changed circumstances:

• Some of their automation efforts failed, more manual work was needed, with higher factory floor footprint.
• China trade war. Original plan was for Fremont to make China units too - but they were hit with a maximum of +65% tariffs when imported into China ...

So Tesla redirected their second phase 10k/week capex to GF3, and used low capex methods to scale Fremont from 5k/week to 7k/week.

This "story" is 100% self-consistent (because it's the truth), and this has been rehashed here numerous times.

 

[T@oo]

​

Yet in 2017 we were told to have zero concern about reaching a 10k weekly run rate in 2018. Elon should start taking notes to keep his story straight.

They were planning for a second line. Makes sense, if you can think and count.

 

[hacer]

For people arguing if $510 was the official Friday closing price or the $504 price afterhours, the options can settle on Friday afterhour price. Because the holders of the option have until noon on Saturday to exercise the option, the afterhour $504 was the price options settled at. So I would say $504 was the official Friday closing price even though that was the manipulated afterhour price.

It used to be that options expired on Saturday and you could exercise on that date, but I don't think that is true anymore since the actual expiration date was changed to Friday. See the link in https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4396794/

 

[Fact Checking]

It used to be that options expired on Saturday and you could exercise on that date, but I don't think that is true anymore since the actual expiration date was changed to Friday. See the link in https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4396794/

But they can still be exercised 1.5 hours after market close on Friday:

Expiration time Definition

"but public holders of option contracts must indicate their desire to exercise no later than 5:30PM on the business day preceding the expiration date."​

I.e. if material news breaks between 4pm and 5:30pm and the after-hours price moves in favor of the option holder then even technically out of money options contracts might be exercised.

 

[diamond.g]

​

Yet in 2017 we were told to have zero concern about reaching a 10k weekly run rate in 2018. Elon should start taking notes to keep his story straight.

Was that with 1 body line? Weren't there supposed to be two body lines for the 3?

 

[Fact Checking]

Was that with 1 body line? Weren't there supposed to be two body lines for the 3?

Note that the comment you are replying to, which is a first post from a new TMC account created today, is uncritically repeating a popular (and false) TSLAQ talking point.

 

[Tslynk67]

You are not supposed to drive any car, including a Tesla, like a slot car racer (e.g. either full acceleration or full brakes). If you are gentle on the pedal, an instance of pedal confusion won't do anything. I have had one instance of pedal confusion (the second or third day I had the car). Went forward about a metre. Then I thought "Oh, so that's what pedal confusion feels like". Never happened again. (Of course, Tesla could have done like the Prius did and have a continuous beep every time you were in reverse. I'll bet many people would just love that

Of course! If one's parking the car, you're not like to stomp on the pedal, but you tend to press the brake or clutch pedals much more firmly, so if you're thinking it's one of those and it's the throttle, well that wall gets close mighty quick.

Note that the software fix for avoiding driving into walls at low speed appears to work. I have explicitly tried it out, but I notice when I'm pulling away from parallel parked cards, it's sluggish until you swing out into the road with clear space ahead.

Only time I really did a pedal confusion was about 30 years ago in my Ford XR3i (boy-racer, or what!), and this was thumping the brake down thinking it was the clutch, on the highway at 70mph = unintended deceleration event. Fortunately there was nothing behind me or it would have been a big problem.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

A few days ago I predicted this would not come out before ER. Sorry, my bad.

Now where on earth am I going to find the time to watch this...

Find the time. It's well worth it.

Dan

 

[diamond.g]

Note that the comment you are replying to, which is a first post from a new TMC account created today, is uncritically repeating a popular (and false) TSLAQ talking point.

Ah, my work internet seems to blackhole one of the ad sources, and it causes the page to take forever to load. I'll try refraining from replying in this fast moving thread, so as to not appear out of date.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Find the time. It's well worth it.

Dan

Judging from Karen's excellent recap - thank you! - in part 1 Elon talks a lot about the past. Although there are a few things that were new to me, most of it is already well known. I am more interested in Elon's view of the future, for Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, Mars, the world, etc. I hope they touch on that in part 2. With 6 interviewers they should have been able to ask questions to push him in that direction, that is if they prepared well and were not overwhelmed by the privilege of being able to interview Elon.

 

[Unpilot]

Seems to very low volume in pre-market.....or am I wrong?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Judging from Karen's excellent recap - thank you! - in part 1 Elon talks a lot about the past. Although there are a few things that were new to me, most of it is already well known. I am more interested in Elon's view of the future, for Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, Mars, the world, etc. I hope they touch on that in part 2. With 6 interviewers they should have been able to ask questions to push him in that direction, that is if they prepared well and were not overwhelmed by the privilege of being able to interview Elon.

I found it incredibly interesting to see him in this relaxed environment. Information about the house. We get to meet his dog (Marvin the Martian). Kimbal was fascinating to me. Never knew he was so involved in all of Elon's companies from the beginning. I am hoping to hear more from Maye in the second half. When she did offer insight she was away from a microphone so she can't be heard.

Dan

 

[Tslynk67]

Judging from Karen's excellent recap - thank you! - in part 1 Elon talks a lot about the past. Although there are a few things that were new to me, most of it is already well known. I am more interested in Elon's view of the future, for Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, Mars, the world, etc. I hope they touch on that in part 2. With 6 interviewers they should have been able to ask questions to push him in that direction, that is if they prepared well and were not overwhelmed by the privilege of being able to interview Elon.

I watched the first 20 minutes and really enjoyed the feel of the whole thing. It's nice to see Elon is way more relaxed than we normally see in these kind of interviews. So whereas the vast majority of what's being presented is likely known to us here, it's worth a watch anyway and for people that aren't so deep into Tesla and Musk or haven't read Vance's book, it's going to be super-useful.

I'll catch up with the rest as-and-when.

 

[ammulder]

Perhaps OT because this isn't about the interview, but...

Someone pointed the other day to a story about Morgan Stanley's Waymo valuation. I looked up the analyst, Brian Nowak. Look at the stuff he covers -- all tech.

So we have Tesla, covered by Adam Jonas the auto analyst, with low low low price targets. And Waymo, covered by the tech analyst, with valuation "slashed" to $105 Billion. At least they're both pessimistic, but I reckon Waymo's getting a much better ratio there!

 

[KarenRei]

I watched the first 20 minutes and really enjoyed the feel of the whole thing. It's nice to see Elon is way more relaxed than we normally see in these kind of interviews. So whereas the vast majority of what's being presented is likely known to us here, it's worth a watch anyway and for people that aren't so deep into Tesla and Musk or haven't read Vance's book, it's going to be super-useful.

I'll catch up with the rest as-and-when.

When I heard that he had done this interview, my reaction was, "That's wonderful!" - not for the people who got the interview, or for people getting to listen to it, but for Elon. I think it's good and healthy for him to hang out with people who are supportive of his mission.

 

[Nakata]

Just see how deep Brian Sparks is into the TSLAQ cult.


24. apr 2019
As noted earlier by @ElonBachman and @btsparks, our friend Brian Sparks went out to HQ today and found inventory cars being returned by car carriers.

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