Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Just for fun, who thinks we'll end the day over $600? I'll give it 50/50 odds.

Supplemental: Who thought we'd be at the Upper-BB? (less $1.21)

Spoiler: Doh.

Market Makers manipulate the SP. Today 56% of all trades involved MMs

 

[kbM3]

With some talk of locking in gains and people wondering when to sell, this video by @DaveT, is VERY timely:

 

[AlMc]

You mean we are not up 7% today? Come on, I can live with any Green Day for TSLA. Perspective my long friends.....

 

[MC3OZ]

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...-global-financial-system-20200122-p53trb.html

A paper released by the Bank for International Settlements warned central banks may soon be forced to step in as a buyer of last resort for “stranded assets” amid a widespread writeoff in the value of carbon-intense assets.

I see this as mainly an overdue redistribution of wealth...

In the process some "Lazy Capital" may be put to more productive use.... because there are new things which are now valuable, and old things which are not..... investing to start making new things pays off.

But in particular the cost of embodied energy in all products should fall, energy should become cheaper and more widely available...

Overall it is a good thing and we need to fix the financial system, add in some dynamic growth, and make it sustainable... taking overdue losses is part of the solution....

 

[MartinAustin]

Cramer just now:

"All those comparisons to Ford and General Motors... they're fatuous. It's like saying that cheap, commodity semiconductors like DRAMS should be valued the same as proprietary microprocessors from AMD or proprietary graphics chips from Nvidia. That is ridiculous. Commodity chips will never be valued like specialty chips. Ford and GM are in the commodity auto business. Stop comparing their market capitalisations to Tesla, which is 1000x more proprietary. Instead, I think it makes more sense to think of [Tesla] as a tech company. Ya know, kind of along the lines of Nvidia or AMD, if those have become the relevant comparisons, it makes total sense that the stock would be moving relentlessly higher here, and while I hate to recommend anything that has run this much, you know what? I think Tesla's got more upside."

 

[StealthP3D]

Awhile back I was suggesting the the new trading range could be $370 to $570. Looks like I need to adjust the top number, but how much?

I don't know because a new trading range simply doesn't exist until one is actually created (as was demonstrated by recent events).

But I would suggest that an upper range of $850 likely will not be high enough. The upper range will likely need, not three digits, but four.

 

[AZRI11]

Ralph Nader called out musk and Tesla on Twitter. Now be prepared Sean Kane (@safe4u2) on Twitter this guy worked for, and is still close to Nader. Hedge funds hired him years ago to go after Toyota in their acceleration case. He got called out on the stand, by Toyota's lawyers Toyota subpoenas critic's communications with media, government - CNN later under oath he admitted to working for hedge funds Toyota Critic Safety Research & Strategies Founder Admits Report Funding Came From Firms Suing Toyota » AutoGuide.com News be prepared for this *sugar* storm. MSM is going to love this.

 

[Mkorpal]

I feel your pain...and it is still falling in AH...grr

Green now, not that it matters.

 

[M3Rider]

Only 10x? You don’t like my 100x? :/

You are crazy, you don't count.

Even TT007 is reasonable now.

 

[StealthP3D]

Yes, it formed a 5 year base during a roaring bull market, so it has a lot of catching up to do.

This is a good point. Now that the farce of the shorts has been uncovered, and people everywhere are being exposed to the truth, that there are no "Tesla Killers" waiting in the wings, that Tesla's are excellent cars, not whompy wheels ready to fall apart, and that the more cars they manufacture, the greater the results, now a new value needs to be determined.

Having reached nearly $600 without last quarters' results being released yet, having been confined to low prices for the last few years, the true value does indeed have some catching up to do.

 

[SageBrush]

Ralph Nader called out musk

WOTT (wall of twitter text)

 

[Mkorpal]

Cramer just now:

"All those comparisons to Ford and General Motors... they're fatuous. It's like saying that cheap, commodity semiconductors like DRAMS should be valued the same as proprietary microprocessors from AMD or proprietary graphics chips from Nvidia. That is ridiculous. Commodity chips will never be valued like specialty chips. Ford and GM are in the commodity auto business. Stop comparing their market capitalisations to Tesla, which is 1000x more proprietary. Instead, I think it makes more sense to think of [Tesla] as a tech company. Ya know, kind of along the lines of Nvidia or AMD, if those have become the relevant comparisons, it makes total sense that the stock would be moving relentlessly higher here, and while I hate to recommend anything that has run this much, you know what? I think Tesla's got more upside."

the crazy thing is, our bull case has them both as the tech giant and the commodity. I think the market is finally realizing just how massive this company might become.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Took a friend out to a hockey game on Saturday. Got to spend 6 hours together, most of the talk was about Tesla. It was his first ride in a Tesla (on the way to the game) and first time driving one (on the way home, about 1 hr each way). He's the financial comptroller for a GM dealership, but knowledgeable about Teslas as the Model Y is his wife's dream car. He loved the Cybertruck unveil. Said he'd have to quit his job if he ever got a Tesla though.

We're in central Alberta - oil and truck country. He said that their dealership sells 60% trucks, 35% SUVs and 5% cars. At any given time they have around 200 trucks in inventory with an ASP of CDN $70K. On hearing this, all I could think of is the potential for Model Y and Cybertruck in a market like this. I will concede that there's a lot of pro-oil sentiment, but not everyone, and I think once people start to see the other (non-environmental) benefits of BEVs, many will come around.

The change (as always) will start with our youth. Watch this Youtuber getting 'man in the street' Cybertruck impressions at Red Deer College (central Alberta), shortly after the CT reveal event. The iPhone generation is def going 'cyber', and their friends will pile in:

"Asking Truck Guys What They Think of Tesla's Cybertruck..."

Cheers!

 

[Bet TSLA]

I think of the 5 or so people I have spoken with who reserved the cybertruck, not one is a committed buyer. That is not much better than an anecdotal sample but I think it does suggest that trivial, returnable deposits should be discounted very heavily in sales forecasts.

I don't think Tesla has any notion that these reservations will translate 1:1 into eventual deliveries. But it will likely keep all these people following every bit of Cybertruck news, and that's brilliant marketing. Interest will become more serious with additional exposure. Eventually, I expect around a 20% take rate (based on nothing at all), which should be more than enough to cover supply for the first year of availability.

As well, this was a popularity poll. Notice that Tesla immediately took the most popular choice and moved its delivery schedule forward. I think which choice people made will prove a far more reliable indicator than deciding to put down $100.

 

[guidooo]

the crazy thing is, our bull case has them both as the tech giant and the commodity. I think the market is finally realizing just how massive this company might become.

Was the insurance candy recently mentioned as well ?

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Tim S]

Awhile back I was suggesting the the new trading range could be $370 to $570. Looks like I need to adjust the top number, but how much?

Umm, you need to adjust the bottom number first. I doubt we'll see the $400s again, let alone $370. We may not even have reached a new trading range yet.

 

[Thekiwi]

A few things on the Y front could change sentiment on Cybertruck IMO. For example, I'm waiting to see the Model Y tow capacity. If 3,500 lbs, I might just switch plans for the Y instead of the truck... cash, Feb 10, when I turn 50-1/2, lol.

So Model Y is Osborne Effect-ing me. However, I'm still holding out for the possibility of an underwater CyberTruck. I'm certain we are not hearing the whole story yet. I think it's the other reason why the windows are so strong - they likely add to the cost of manufacturing, so what's the motivation behind thick glass? The panels... I get it, but the glass? Did I miss a purpose there? Do some States have haters that throw steel balls at windows?

Just a clarification that this is actually the opposite of the Osborne effect. The Osbourne effect is named after the computing company that revealed their next generation of computer way too early, which thereby crashed there existing sales and led to bankruptcy before they even got the new models out.

Buying a Y (about to be released) instead of the CT (18-24 months away) is the opposite of this, and would in fact be better for the company.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Just a clarification that this is actually the opposite of the Osborne effect. The Osbourne effect is named after the computing company that revealed their next generation of computer way too early, which thereby crashed there existing sales and led to bankruptcy before they even got the new models out.

Buying a Y (about to be released) instead of the CT (18-24 months away) is the opposite of this, and would in fact be better for the company.

... and I initially wrote "reverse" and then got confused. Maybe have to get both even if the SP just holds.

 

[Thekiwi]

For someone who is too greedy, TSLA puts can also be very bad...

Using Margin to buy OTM options is crazy risky.

Maybe its worth putting some money into some Manhattan funeral homes - TSLA is a widowmaker.

 

[Thekiwi]

Caught this chart on Bloomberg TV earlier today (forgive the quality, this is a photo of the TV). Would be interested to see which analysts contributed to these long term consensus earnings estimates (because almost no one on Wall Street has Price targets that match these growth projections)