Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Pezpunk]

This is gonna be surprising to most....no mention of TSLA in the CNBC "biggest pre-market movers".

eh, it's only up 3%. sure, 9 months ago, this +$22 would have been 10% rise -- much more newsworthy.

 

[Favguy]

The practice of counting PHEVs as EVs originates from ICE OEMs: it's a marketing and incentives scam and fraud - we won't be able to get rid of it overnight.

By counting PHEVs as "green" vehicles they get state financing and tax breaks to build more ICE factories. Their customers get "EV" incentives, crowding out BEV buyers. It also gave them and the media a false sense of progress on "electrification". BMW still thinks of themselves as a leader in electrification...

But it's a scam: PHEVs are the worst of the two worlds that have slowed electrification.

My PHEV, Outlander was the worst of both worlds, woefully inadequate EV range and then inefficient running on Gas, was glad to see the back of it. They do tend to convert people to full BEV though as there is nothing worse than the annoyance of going from the silent smoothness of EV drive to that damn noisy (and expensive to run in UK) Gas clunker firing up when it's out of battery!

 

[rsm287]

2019 growth wasnt low as much as 2018 was an anomaly. This is what many anal-ysts dont get. 2018 revenue was 80% higher than 2017 because there was a combination of 3P backlog and S&X legacy sales. We have to try to judge 2019 as if 2018 was a normal year and revenue was 16-17B, a nice 45% growth. In that light, 2019 was fantastic. 2018 was neccessary for the trasition to mass production of model 3 to take place. One cant expect an 80% growth year to repeat itself or be used as the measuring stick for subsequent years.
The growth story isnt over. They just have to check their expectation.

That growth should increase dramatically again in 2020/21/22....in fact, pretty much all years going forward!

 

[EinSV]

Slightly on topic:

To all of you new Teslanaires: These paper gains are a bummer, because you should not, and I mean not in a long time, sell, because the pain of missing out on yet another 10 bagger is huge. Speaking of experience, I have to admit I cashed out when the stock doubled from IPO to 38 and I felt soo smug. Sold again some at 120-ish, to buy for MS2013 with the gains, again smug / happy as hell. When it rose to 200 and above and then back to 170-ish, I bought all the shares I sold back on a much higher cost basis.

Now when I want to see some cash, I have a small playmoney account where I trade options / derivatives and such.

So don't change your way of life until your retirement, islands, yachts etc. are secured. This will happen sooner than we could ever dream of.

Of course not advice

Another more extreme version of this story:

A friend was lucky enough to be able to invest in Tesla pre-IPO at ~$5 per share. He sold a few years later at $35 per share -- not because his views of the company had changed but to lock in profits (7X -- not too shabby). A couple years later he bought a smaller number of shares at ~$200 per share, but if he had held on to his original shares he would have a 130 bagger by now.

 

[Krugerrand]

This is going to be an unmitigated disaster. You don't need to be a marketing executive to see this.

The commercial ending was flat out copying Tesla - show only a tiny piece of the vehicle, the rest in shadows, add a reveal date = crap ton of excitement?

 

[Favguy]

Another more extreme version of this story:

A friend was lucky enough to be able to invest in Tesla pre-IPO at ~$5 per share. He sold a few years later at $35 per share -- not because his views of the company had changed but to lock in profits (7X -- not too shabby). A couple years later he bought a smaller number of shares at ~$200 per share, but if he had held on to his original shares he would have had a 130X+ return by now.

As we look back with hindsight though, it's easy now to forget that 700% profit was taken at the time from a fledgling company that for all we knew then could have gone the way of Fisker...

 

[larmor]

This is gonna be surprising to most....no mention of TSLA in the CNBC "biggest pre-market movers".

Obviously not as exciting as a image sharing platform that tracks your moves, as well as your family and friends move, or a phone that listens to all you conversations for post processing, or sells servers so that you can resell fake purses.

Tesla is the next paradigm shift, a tech company for energy-- where is my wireless energy transmission telsa? I have a tinfoil hat company ready to go...

 

[Krugerrand]

agree. The article says that this agreement suggests a two year period for Tesla to obtain batteries from them although, obviously, there is no cap on the quantity Tesla may order. And the agreement is, compared to Panasonic´s "at a smaller scale" - same goes for LG Chem.

Right. So as usual Tesla knows what’s coming and they are preparing years in advance. They will use every cell they can get their hands on for the foreseeable future.

 

[StealthP3D]

Oh that's embarrassing , and it's like the 10th time this has happened to me in the past few weeks. Just 2 months ago we were at $3xx, and old habits die hard.

No worries! What's $300/share amongst friends anyway?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

PT raised at Argus?

 

[EVNow]

Page number 6632. SP at 673. Hmmm ...

 

[LytHka]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/world/asia/coronavirus-wuhan-hospital.html

1 year for Giga Shanghai was sandbagged

 

[T@oo]

Comfortably exceeding 680...

 

[Dan Detweiler]

My PHEV, Outlander was the worst of both worlds, woefully inadequate EV range and then inefficient running on Gas, was glad to see the back of it. They do tend to convert people to full BEV though as there is nothing worse than the annoyance of going from the silent smoothness of EV drive to that damn noisy (and expensive to run in UK) Gas clunker firing up when it's out of battery!

Well, I have to say that my Chevy Volt was a fantastic transition vehicle back in 2012 when I bought it. Served me very well (and continues to serve my son) as a way to go virtually all electric (about 85% over the life of the car) until I could afford a true BEV. I got nothing bad to say about it...other than the God awful interior console.

Dan

 

[mars_or_bust]

 

[Mkorpal]

Wow, what an open.

 

[Favguy]

Comfortably exceeding 680...

I better tear myself away for a shower... Won't be happy if we are still in the $600's when I get back... lol!

 

[gerebgraus]

This is going to be an unmitigated disaster. You don't need to be a marketing executive to see this.

Legacy car makers have the enviable choice between two opposite strategies: 1. Acknowledging the fact they are facing unmitigated disaster with the BEV + software transition in the industry. (Diess at VW.) or pretend that the transition does not exist. (BMW). Diess is validating and advertising Tesla and against his own product, but it gives VW a remote chance to become competitive while BMW still advertises itself while it has no chance to adapt. I respect Diess more, but ultimately both are unmitigated disasters. Is there a third door that does not lead to an unmitigated disaster? We will see whether any legacy maker will find it. The Superbowl EV ads are all attempts of some combination of these choices to mitigate the disaster but without success.

 

[EVMeister]

OK, it's one of those days. No work to be done now.

 

[willow_hiller]

Is there enough of a weekly pattern now for us to coin some new terms in addition to the MMD?

Something like:

Friday Market-maker Pushdown (FMP)

and the

Monday Retail-trader Retaliation (MRR)?