Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tim S]

I make a plea to those of you who, like me, are retail traders and not pros.
I am a very young retail trader from Italy, this is not financial advice, and you have no reason to believe me.

I know you are going to question my motives. I implore you to believe me that this is seriously done in good faith.
Feel free to dislike this x20, but please at least read my warning.

This forum is filled with tons of insight from tons of smart people from tons of different professions.

But being smart doesn't make you immune to greed. Isaac Newton lost a ton of money in the market. It's not because he was dumb. He was one of the smartest people alive on the planet.

If your Tesla position (or ANY position) in your portfolio is >20%, ESPECIALLY if it's massively up because of the recent run up, even more critically if it's an option position, ALL CAPS IF IT'S IN SHORT TERM OPTIONS, ALL CAPS ITALIC BOLD UNDERLINED IF IT'S SIGNIFICANT MONEY TO YOU:
please consider REDUCING IT to more prudent risk levels.

If 20% sounds like too small of an allocation to Tesla, and you're not just playing with dollars you can afford to lose: PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE. BOOK SOME GAINS.

I'm not asking you to sell your Tesla investment here. I'm not saying that this valuation is too high. I'm not saying higher risk cannot mean higher returns. I'm not saying Tesla is a bad company. I'm not saying ANY of those things.

I'm just asking for some risk management.

I've read about so many investment boards full of smart people analyzing companies. I've seen thousand-page threads about investment theses. They all made sense.

And then for whatever reason the shares take a big hit, and people are suddenly posting about their life savings having halved. People don't know how to tell their partner. People post about their children's college fund being gone.

Even if the price action is driven by short sellers. Actually, especially if the price action is driven by short sellers!

Please, consider the possibility that you will lose money due to market irrationality, manipulation, short selling, short gamma bloodbaths, huge market corrections having nothing to do with Tesla, your broker glitching out. Please be safe.

Sorry, I do realize this sounds extremely condescending. I don't think I'm smarter than you. I do think someone might read this at the right time and just maybe be more prudent, and it might matter.

Sorry,
MFran123

MFranc123 is an admitted short who is pleading with you to sell your shares. (Check his/her posting history). Keep in that in mind when reading this post.

Edit: I see he/she self-identifies as a short in his/her signature. How refreshing. No need to check the posting history.

 

[jhm]

When volume is this high but SP doesn't budge, what does it mean?

A lot of shares are happily changing hands.

 

[anthonyj]

I make a plea to those of you who, like me, are retail traders and not pros.
I am a very young retail trader from Italy, this is not financial advice, and you have no reason to believe me.

I know you are going to question my motives. I implore you to believe me that this is seriously done in good faith.
Feel free to dislike this x20, but please at least read my warning.

This forum is filled with tons of insight from tons of smart people from tons of different professions.

But being smart doesn't make you immune to greed. Isaac Newton lost a ton of money in the market. It's not because he was dumb. He was one of the smartest people alive on the planet.

If your Tesla position (or ANY position) in your portfolio is >20%, ESPECIALLY if it's massively up because of the recent run up, even more critically if it's an option position, ALL CAPS IF IT'S IN SHORT TERM OPTIONS, ALL CAPS ITALIC BOLD UNDERLINED IF IT'S SIGNIFICANT MONEY TO YOU:
please consider REDUCING IT to more prudent risk levels.

If 20% sounds like too small of an allocation to Tesla, and you're not just playing with dollars you can afford to lose: PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE. BOOK SOME GAINS.

I'm not asking you to sell your Tesla investment here. I'm not saying that this valuation is too high. I'm not saying higher risk cannot mean higher returns. I'm not saying Tesla is a bad company. I'm not saying ANY of those things.

I'm just asking for some risk management.

I've read about so many investment boards full of smart people analyzing companies. I've seen thousand-page threads about investment theses. They all made sense.

And then for whatever reason the shares take a big hit, and people are suddenly posting about their life savings having halved. People don't know how to tell their partner. People post about their children's college fund being gone.

Even if the price action is driven by short sellers. Actually, especially if the price action is driven by short sellers!

Please, consider the possibility that you will lose money due to market irrationality, manipulation, short selling, short gamma bloodbaths, huge market corrections having nothing to do with Tesla, your broker glitching out. Please be safe.

Sorry, I do realize this sounds extremely condescending. I don't think I'm smarter than you. I do think someone might read this at the right time and just maybe be more prudent, and it might matter.

Sorry,
MFran123

Ur just jealous. From my GFs acct (she cashed out some too, she didn’t even know what an option was, she bought em for $2 cuz I did)

they call this the mythical 1,179 bagger

 

[Fobble]

MFranc123 is an admitted short who is pleading with you to sell your shares. (Check his/her posting history). Keep in that in mind when reading this post.

Edit: I see he/she self-identifies as a short in his/her signature. How refreshing. No need to check the posting history.

He sounds to me like an desperate short ...

 

[Nocturnal]

MFranc123 is an admitted short who is pleading with you to sell your shares. (Check his/her posting history). Keep in that in mind when reading this post.

Edit: I see he/she self-identifies as a short in his/her signature. How refreshing. No need to check the posting history.

The shorts aren't sending their best. Well, now that I think about it, perhaps they are.

 

[lklundin]

I am missing something here. Let's say MM shorts the stock for the last 2 days, isn't that they have to buy the stock back eventually?
This will shoot the stock up. I am confused why Friday would be another down day then?

Right, but the avalanche that their tell-tale single monster sell order created brought the SP very far down, so they can cover (i.e. buy back) in normal, small portions that will not make the SP go up again so fast. That was probably a good part of the buying we have seen today...

There is this quote from the movie 'Margin Call' about the Market Makers keeping their fingers on the scale that comes to mind:

- maybe it's not 100% apt, but Paul Bettany plays very well and the whole film is recommendable, in my mind.

PS. Also for a buy-and-hold investor, the abject manipulation that we quite clearly saw this week is upsetting because it did spook a lot of investors, like one of our own TMC moderators who decided to liquidate his entire TSLA position at 200 points below the intraday ATH. To make matters worse, the selling avalanche was in this case so great, that the initial trade that should have cost a lot of money very likely ended up being profitable in itself, because the SP went so far down that the covering could almost certainly be done at a profit. Which means that we can expect to see this again - like we have before.

 

[Cherry Wine]

MFranc123 is an admitted short who is pleading with you to sell your shares. (Check his/her posting history). Keep in that in mind when reading this post.

Edit: I see he/she self-identifies as a short in his/her signature. How refreshing. No need to check the posting history.

I had to click “Show Ignored Content” to even see the post.

 

[KarenRei]

OT

Have to point out the assumption for “sell up, buy down” to work is either you can time the peak perfectly, or you have unlimited capital to work with.

For an average retail investor, it might look like:

• $350: Sell X shares ($350*X)
• $400: Sell X shares ($400*X)
• $450: Sell X shares ($450*X)
  
• $500: Sell X shares ($500*X)
• $550: No more shares to sell
• $600: No more shares to sell
• $650: No more shares to sell
  
• $700: No more shares to sell
• $750: No more shares to sell
• $800: No more shares to sell
• $850: No more shares to sell
• $900: No more shares to sell
  
• $850: Too high, won’t buy
  
• $800: Too high, won’t buy
• $750: Too high, won’t buy
• $700: Too high, won’t buy

This is exactly how one misses the bus.

This was of course a huge oversimplification to show how "sell on the way down, buy on the way up" is a stupid idea; few people would actually implement a "sell/buy X shares every $50" strategy. At its simplest you generally will adjust by percentages of your assets (the result is the same - buying on the way down / selling on the way up profits, while the inverse loses). One may also handle it by adjusting leverage (again, same result).

The takeaway is not "buy and hold" people are dumb. Nor is the takeaway "sell/buy X shares every $50". It's simply, if you're going to buy and sell, do the buying on the way down and the selling on the way up, not the other way around.

 

[ZeApelido]

Is battery day april 4th ? unless i am misunderstanding him adam jonas implies so in this video , timestamp 4:15

Elon told Adam there is a special battery day just for him in Siberia on April 4th.

 

[Hock1]

When volume is this high but SP doesn't budge, what does it mean?

"Volume precedes price"

 

[Prunesquallor]

MFranc123 is an admitted short who is pleading with you to sell your shares. (Check his/her posting history). Keep in that in mind when reading this post.

Edit: I see he/she self-identifies as a short in his/her signature. How refreshing. No need to check the posting history.

“Friendly $TSLA short”? With friends like that...

 

[rsm287]

Omg! The Battery Day is on Tuesday, Feb 18th. It’s happening!!!

Maybe in years to come, when the impact of Tesla's 'Battery Day' is understood, there will be a global holiday to celebrate 'Battery Day'

 

[StealthP3D]

Far from boring, this was a battle to keep the narrative going that TSLA was bound for <$300. Buyers outweighed the SP smushing and tomorrow could be VERY interesting.

I think even the dolts on CNBC understand this is no longer a $300 stock.

When Cathie Woods was explaining Tesla's advantages to them, the one guy (Tim?) who had shorted it last year was sitting there looking stiff, wide-eyed and like a bad little schoolboy who knew he wasn't going to be opening his mouth this segment.

 

[CanadaEV]

Regardless of how any of use feel about wealth, money, and the current system, Elon at the top of the capitalist power list will fundamentally be better for us all than any of the alternatives in this real politik cut throat world.

I agree absolutely. Musk is the new standard for the meaning of wealth. On the planet overall, we have been walking a precarious line in false understandings about wealth.

Musk is an example of how wealth actually represents human potential at its best. Tens of billions of dollars cannot really belong to a single person, any more than the mountains and rivers can. That concept of 'title' is false and misplaced.

Yes, we need control over our own individual space, which implies some idea of title. But exercising massive control over others can't work.

I believe Musk is honest about it. He says he accumulates wealth only for his missions arising from his vision of the best for humanity. Many here and around the world subscribe to his vision as being beneficial.

 

[Rammstein]

I make a plea to those of you who, like me, are retail traders and not pros.
I am a very young retail trader from Italy, this is not financial advice, and you have no reason to believe me.

I know you are going to question my motives. I implore you to believe me that this is seriously done in good faith.
Feel free to dislike this x20, but please at least read my warning.

This forum is filled with tons of insight from tons of smart people from tons of different professions.

But being smart doesn't make you immune to greed. Isaac Newton lost a ton of money in the market. It's not because he was dumb. He was one of the smartest people alive on the planet.

If your Tesla position (or ANY position) in your portfolio is >20%, ESPECIALLY if it's massively up because of the recent run up, even more critically if it's an option position, ALL CAPS IF IT'S IN SHORT TERM OPTIONS, ALL CAPS ITALIC BOLD UNDERLINED IF IT'S SIGNIFICANT MONEY TO YOU:
please consider REDUCING IT to more prudent risk levels.

If 20% sounds like too small of an allocation to Tesla, and you're not just playing with dollars you can afford to lose: PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE. BOOK SOME GAINS.

I'm not asking you to sell your Tesla investment here. I'm not saying that this valuation is too high. I'm not saying higher risk cannot mean higher returns. I'm not saying Tesla is a bad company. I'm not saying ANY of those things.

I'm just asking for some risk management.

I've read about so many investment boards full of smart people analyzing companies. I've seen thousand-page threads about investment theses. They all made sense.

And then for whatever reason the shares take a big hit, and people are suddenly posting about their life savings having halved. People don't know how to tell their partner. People post about their children's college fund being gone.

Even if the price action is driven by short sellers. Actually, especially if the price action is driven by short sellers!

Please, consider the possibility that you will lose money due to market irrationality, manipulation, short selling, short gamma bloodbaths, huge market corrections having nothing to do with Tesla, your broker glitching out. Please be safe.

Sorry, I do realize this sounds extremely condescending. I don't think I'm smarter than you. I do think someone might read this at the right time and just maybe be more prudent, and it might matter.

Sorry,
MFran123

To be honest this is the safest place to put my money. Do you have a better more so called safe investment?

It would be funny if this is some short posting this everywhere. Trying to get longs to sell so they can cover.

 

[Mike Smith]

Apparently Teslarati is now offering trading advice..

Tesla (TSLA) investors need a 420 break, don't be so eager to jump right back in

 

[NicoV]

Do y’all realize that the top 4 TSLA trading days by volume are all this week. And there have only been 4 days this week so far.

Kind of like the 19 hottest years on record all being in the last 20 years. Maybe we should do something about that.

 

[2virgule5]

“Friendly $TSLA short”? With friends like that...

Well, I’m up a Tesla Roadster just this week playing options, so in a sense they’re kind of my friends now, no?

 

[MFranc123]

Just wanted to say congratulations to all on this last spectacular rally. : D

MFranc123 is an admitted short who is pleading with you to sell your shares. (Check his/her posting history). Keep in that in mind when reading this post.

Edit: I see he/she self-identifies as a short in his/her signature. How refreshing. No need to check the posting history.

He sounds to me like an desperate short ...

The shorts aren't sending their best. Well, now that I think about it, perhaps they are.

I had to click “Show Ignored Content” to even see the post.

I don't feel the need to defend myself. For the record, I was way under before this, and due to sheer luck buying deep a few OTM options (to participate in what people where theorizing to be a short gamma squeeze) I came out on top.

For the record though, I almost completely liquidated my Tesla position, and I'm going to turn it into a tiny short on monday compared to what it used to be just to stay invested in this story. When I say tiny, I mean *literally* one share. That's to give you the idea of the size of my portfolio. Again, I'm a retail "investor".

I do feel the need to defend the message. I'm just asking retail people with a lot at stake to consider the size of their position. Nothing is going to change if 10 people sell 500 shares each (which is never going to happen because of my message anyway) when the daily volume is in the billions! If you have 5000 shares or a $10M option position, you're just laughing at me for posting this. I'm just saying, if your retirement is riding on this.

I won't post any further message in this forum. I definitely understand why I'm very not welcome. And if the admins see fit, they can forward my email to law enforcement. While I'm pseudonymous, I am not using any VPN (you can confirm this by checking that my IP is coming from the most popular ISP in my region, or sometimes from a mobile provider IP, again very much used in Italy).

I will just finish this by saying that I did not think my message which literally only talked about position sizing, not direction or timing, would be received this way. Every single conversation I previously had in this forum was people being nice to me.

 

[Thekiwi]

A reminder for everyone to keep their eye on the prize, it’s the long term game that matters.

Here is the bearish/bullish prospects for 2-7ish years out, just for the automotive segment gross profit (doesn’t include energy or robotaxi possibilities):