The nyu prof on CNBC is a prime example of the need of a paradigm shift in how to see Tesla. He says to justify the valuation, Tesla needs to have revenues like Toyota and margins like Apple, otherwise stock not justified at current levels.
Okay, auto revenues in 10 years. What is the market for electric cars globally? What is Tesla market share of that? Much higher then Toyota just on sales alone. We haven't even touched the energy side, which is something not many can really model out because most have no clue about how to see how the energy side works. *Tesla itself* is at the forefront of knowing the valuation since they are by far the furthest advanced company on this front globally. The ability to scale and set the prices for that energy product and services. These revenues, as Elon has stated many times over the years, may exceed auto revenue. So, Tesla in 10 years must be analyzed from not only auto sales, but energy product sales as well and nothing we've heard from anyone on any sort of detailed sensitivity analysis on this has been done.
Margins? I think margins on autos and energy product sales will be secondary to the margins created by *services* from those autos and energy products.
Margins on Robotaxi and Energy(kWh) services will be substantial. Energy (kwh) services/sales globally, to me, will be far greater than Robotaxi in the long run. However, there seems to be only a few analysts that even try to figure out Robotaxi revenues and margins. Haven't seen anything on the energy side. Energy side is the "forecast" that is potentially the biggest impact long term, but not a peep.
Again, I have to say, this is where the legacy analysts will be separated from the next generation ones. Legacy is baffled and can't make anything stick because less and less people are listening and more and more are figuring it out on their own. They are investing now and holding for the long term gains on auto and energy. 900 now to see 5000-15000+ later on in the decade and beyond is a good investment to them. It's not 900 is way too much for auto revenues to hit 300bln ten years from now, but global market for auto and energy products plus services in both at the growth rate it has demonstrated provides for massive returns in 5 years and for a very long time after that. It is about trading mentality versus investment mentality.
This really is not an investment exercise in comparing Apple and Toyota, but one in seeing the future of transportation and energy disrupting and changing how transportation and energy operate today. It will look drastically different then how transportation and energy look right now. You either model it on what it looked like 5 years ago, or you model off what it will look like 5-10 years and many decades beyond.
What we are witnessing is the dear-in-head-lights from those that can't fathom the world is moving on beyond their ability to see the future. This is why less people are listening to them, they are losing influence on the broader financial news audience, and they will soon be overtaken and left behind when the next generation builds the "critical mass" global audience that will drain away the remaining ad dollars that has them just able to operate a network today.
