Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Interesting, Cybertruck and Roadster are no longer clickable on Tesla.com. Solar Roof is now added as a separate clickable.

The pages are still there but by manually typing them in, just not easily accessible via going to Tesla.com

 

[Tim S]

Ended at $800.35 in the After Market.

But why? Isn't the value at end of ordinary market at 16 the number options are settled over?

After Hours trading goes until 8:00 ET, almost 2 more hours. Usually doesn't change much on Fridays though. Currently up 2 cents to $800.05.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

All right, look. IV has been down a bit so I picked up some 3/19/21 $1880 LEAPs just for the WSB cred or whatever. If TSLA is actually at $1880 by next March I'll just retire or something. I'm not holding my breath over here. Figured I've made enough recently that a dumb YOLO won't break me if it goes tits up.

 

[TradingInvest]

Interesting, Cybertruck and Roadster are no longer clickable on Tesla.com. Solar Roof is now added as a separate clickable.

The pages are still there but by manually typing them in, just not easily accessible via going to Tesla.com

They moved Cybertruck and Roadster to the side (upper right conner).

 

[Fact Checking]

Correction: Tesla is bigger than the other three combined now.

So instead of the "Big Three" we now have "The Big One and the Three Little Ones"?

 

[Fact Checking]

Ended at $800.35 in the After Market.

But why? Isn't the value at end of ordinary market at 16 the number options are settled over?

Nasdaq after-hours trading is still open I think.

 

[BenPrice]

Decided to arm up for Monday.

And oct 16 2019s seemed most favorable.

I hope my model y order can come sooner than later, was in a car accident :/

 

[Chocochip]

Having just checked the Tesla landing page (yes, the Cybertruck and Roadster links are now in the side panel, I’m guessing they’re prioritising links to the products that are currently available or very-close-to-being-available in the top menu) I noticed the frame drawing for the Model Y. It’s easy to spot the cast aluminium part(s) in the rear section due to the characteristic webbings. The frame for the 3 (as well as the S & X) looks different. If these new cast frame components do indeed lead to significant cost & manufacturing time savings, I see no reason why they wouldn’t soon be implemented in the 3, S & X production processes as well.

Also, as ridiculous as I realise this is, I’m unreasonably excited to soon find out what those cast parts are, what they are replacing, and other possible details (cost savings, structural benefits, etc.) when the results of the first teardowns come out! Sandy, we’re counting on you!

 

[Cherry Wine]

Probably isn't the right forum for this Q, but who do you call when you need to make a claim?

They provide a contact number for both policy changes and claims. Knock on wood, I have never had to make a claim on my auto policy and I sure as hell hope that trend doesn't break any time soon.

 

[Fred42]

Hi all, this is my first post here, I've been lurking here for some time though.
Tesla has uploaded a new website talking about Giga Berlin. It's mostly general information, but I noticed this passage:

Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg​

It seems like Phase 1 of Giga Berlin will be targeting 500k annual Model Y production before Model 3 and other vehicles. This is consistent with the remarks made at the public hearing in Grünheide, which said in essence:

• The factory Tesla is seeking permits for currently (500k capacity) is just Phase 1 - further phases are possible but haven't been discussed yet.
• The factory expected to start production in 2021 is the subset of Phase 1 that is achievable with the current external infrastucture, specifically water supply (~150k capacity)

So: Giga Berlin may be significantly bigger than the currently confirmed ~500k capacity, if you assume ~250k eventual Model 3 capacity (somewhat conservative I believe) and ~250k of 'future products', which the permits talk about, then Giga Berlin may get to 1M cars of annual capacity under currently (semi)-disclosed plans.
I don't believe this has been discussed here before, and feel free to correct anything wrong with this post!

I don't believe I have seen any information on the plan to increase water supply at GF4. Is anything known?

 

[Kuhz]

Decided to arm up for Monday.

And oct 16 2019s seemed most favorable.

I hope my model y order can come sooner than later, was in a car accident :/

Market is closed on Monday

 

[Nurkbonis]

I bought a 6/2020 $1880 call yesterday AM. Will hold for a bit. It was cheap. If we get a few more but pushes towards $1,000, I'll sell it.

All right, look. IV has been down a bit so I picked up some 3/19/21 $1880 LEAPs just for the WSB cred or whatever. If TSLA is actually at $1880 by next March I'll just retire or something. I'm not holding my breath over here. Figured I've made enough recently that a dumb YOLO won't break me if it goes tits up.

 

[tinm]

My hunch is that Tesla is raising the money to build a skateboard factory and will announce a deal at battery investor day. I don't see how other automakers can compete by building their own skateboard. They will instead buy it and innovate on top of it. Currently no one cares about the skateboard of existing cars, they care about the brand, looks, and features. That will continue with EVs, with range and performance being new variables. If you can buy a skateboard and get close to Tesla's range and perf, why spend billions to develop one?

To me, the parallels to EVs and the computer industry are too close to ignore.

I see a lot of disagrees here but recently I had a long conversation with an auto industry expert who told me he thinks a skateboard deal between Tesla and at least one major OEM is a good possibility.

 

[Nurkbonis]

I could see it happening too. Helps achieve Tesla's mission statement and it'd be another guaranteed source of revenue. I don't see Tesla offering this to everyone but a deal with one or two automakers makes sense.

I see a lot of disagrees here but recently I had a long conversation with an auto industry expert who told me he thinks a skateboard deal between Tesla and at least one major OEM is a good possibility.

 

[HG Wells]

So instead of the "Big Three" we now have "The Big One and the Three Little Ones"?

Let me correct that for you.

The Big one and the three stooges.

 

[KarenRei]

Not sure they'll go beyond just a handful of Model Y deliveries, like at GF3, due to the low margin of early units.

Another problem is battery production, which is still rumored to be around 7k/week, and which must supply the 3, the Y and GF3 as well until GF3 pack production ramps up.

I.e. a conservative approach would be 13x 7k = 91k 3/Y/MIC, plus 10-15k S/X - I.e. 101-106k production and 90-95k deliveries.

I cannot subscribe to a theory that involves Fremont being partly idled, which is what you're suggesting.

• Elon said in the 3rd Row Podcast that Fremont Model 3 production is running at 7k/wk. That alone is the consumption of 7k/wk packs. Just Fremont. Just Model 3.
• The rate of loading of new ships is the same as in Q4, indicating the same sort of production rate.
• Packs are being produced at GF3. Indeed, you seem to be sourcing part of your claims from carsonight, but even he previously said that they stopped supplying new ones to China, after having been stockpiling them earlier in the year. Though strangely he now says just the opposite; his statements on this have shifted over time. Not that he'd know anything about local China production, or shipping to China, whatsoever, and has admitted as much.
• If there actually was a 7k pack limit, and Tesla was frontloading packs to stockpile at GF3 like carsonight suggested (at the very least, and even with a stockpile of zero, you have shipping lag times), then their Q4 production rate would have been impossible. January's 800/wk up to the Lunar New Year would have been primarily from packs made in December. Was the Model 3 line at Fremont curtailed in Q4?
• If GF1 can sustain 800/wk at GF3 and a Q4-level Model 3 production rate at Fremont, then it can sustain 10,4k Q1 production at GF3 (vs. the estimated 11,2k) with no idling at Fremont.
• There is no way, at all, that Tesla hasn't been ramping cell and pack production at GF1 in anticipation of MY. Yet you're proposing that it not only hasn't ramped at all for many months, but that it will continue to not ramp at all for the remainder of the quarter, and that they're deliberately robbing their Model 3 lines of packs. I find this notion to be nonsensical.

Also, weren't you just the other day saying that you didn't expect S/X to be down? Yet now you're going with 10-15k S/X? And why exactly, given that S/X wait times are just as long as for the 3? Are they making people wait for the fun of it?

There's no evidence suggesting that Model 3 production at Fremont has been curtailed, yet I find it remarkable how many people want to suggest it despite that, in order to fit some theory. Where's the people getting less hours, or outright cut shifts? Where's the infrequent ships? Where's the slow refill at Pier 80? Where's the leaks from Fremont about rate cutbacks? Where is literally anything whatsoever suggesting that production has been cut there?

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

I see a lot of disagrees here but recently I had a long conversation with an auto industry expert who told me he thinks a skateboard deal between Tesla and at least one major OEM is a good possibility.

Why would Tesla do this when they can't even build enough batteries to satisfy their own demand? So, we're supposed to believe they're going to sell their batteries to another manufacturer?

 

[tinm]

Never trust someone who uses the term "electronic" cars. In my experience, that is the dead giveaway that everything else they say about them will be wrong.

Same rule applies to folks who say “Silicone Valley” when arguing about tech industry.

 

[printf42]

13F reports pouring in.
Anyone have a take on Renaissance holding?
It seems TSLA is their 2nd largest holding now, are they “buy and hold” type or “tech trading” type?
Hope it’s not because they sold too many calls in 2019.(not even sure whether they do that at all)

 

[tinm]

Logging progress at Giga Berlin site. Source: Emil Senkel on Twitter

Geez they’re terminating those trees with extreme prejudice!