Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ammulder]

There's no evidence suggesting that Model 3 production at Fremont has been curtailed, yet I find it remarkable how many people want to suggest it despite that, in order to fit some theory. Where's the people getting less hours, or outright cut shifts? Where's the infrequent ships? Where's the slow refill at Pier 80? Where's the leaks from Fremont about rate cutbacks? Where is literally anything whatsoever suggesting that production has been cut there?

I say this with no evidence whatsoever, but... wasn't there some talk of Fremont being -- if not idled at least slowed -- for a few days at the beginning of the quarter to let people recover from the end of quarter crush? They certainly had people working on New Year's Eve, if they had people working extra around Christmas too, it would make sense to allow for some extra down time in January.

But again, no evidence from here on the East Coast.

 

[ggr]

I say this with no evidence whatsoever, but... wasn't there some talk of Fremont being -- if not idled at least slowed -- for a few days at the beginning of the quarter to let people recover from the end of quarter crush? They certainly had people working on New Year's Eve, if they had people working extra around Christmas too, it would make sense to allow for some extra down time in January.

But again, no evidence from here on the East Coast.

They do usually shut down the lines for maintenance and worker rest for the first week of January. But I haven't seen any confirmation that they actually did that this year.

 

[KarenRei]

I say this with no evidence whatsoever, but... wasn't there some talk of Fremont being -- if not idled at least slowed -- for a few days at the beginning of the quarter to let people recover from the end of quarter crush? They certainly had people working on New Year's Eve, if they had people working extra around Christmas too, it would make sense to allow for some extra down time in January.

But again, no evidence from here on the East Coast.

Well, if we're counting holiday-related shutdowns against Tesla production, Q4 is full of holidays I'd have to look at which ones (if any) they went down for, mind you - I'm not sure off the top of my head. They definitely were running on New Years Eve. Not sure if they shut down after the New Year. That said, February is a shorter month and loses a couple days.

Q4 did have at least one day down due to power outages.

Overall, there's perhaps a couple days difference running time (a few percent difference to the average weekly production rate)

 

[Cosmacelf]

13F reports pouring in.
Anyone have a take on Renaissance holding?
It seems TSLA is their 2nd largest holding now, are they “buy and hold” type or “tech trading” type?
Hope it’s not because they sold too many calls in 2019.(not even sure whether they do that at all)

Renaissance does everything under the sun. They probably have some 5th order really convoluted algorithm that is telling them to buy and hold right now. But since they are an algo shop, who knows what they'll do next week. They certainly don't know themselves.

 

[c041v]

Geez they’re terminating those trees with extreme prejudice!

Commercial logging equipment is hugely efficient at clearing. These trees don't look to be particularly large or difficult to process and likely take a feller buncher a matter of seconds to gather and cut. It also seems to be merchantable timber which may have some decent demand.

There may also be certain wildlife permits associated with removing these trees as fast as possible to minimize the risk of birds nesting in areas that have presumably been swept prior to clearing... at least that is how it works in Canada.

(I've cleared a lot of trees for Highway work, but I saved a lot more when I was a Forest Firefighter )

 

[dl003]

I opened an IB pro account and moved everything from RBH. In other words, I graduated. I want to thank everyone on this board. Thanks to you all, I've become a much better investor and trader.

 

[MC3OZ]

We know the challenge for Q1 is production and deliveries.... no indication at all of any demand problem.

What we don't know is of GF Shanghai can make Model 3 packs with locally sourced Chinese cells... we know that was something Tesla was aiming to do.

If GF Shanghai can make Model 3 packs then we know no pack for China need to come from GF Nevada meaning all packs can go to Fremont and we know cells are the likely production constraint.

Any Model 3s make in China don't need to go on boats and that has an impact on the wave and improves logistics....

The downside risk is possible impacts on parts supplies out of China caused by the virus shutdown...... normally I would back Tesla to make that part in house .. but there might not be time to make the shift....

Overall I think Tesla has a fighting chance of a small profit in Q1, so it is important to keep fighting the worst case is that reduces the loss.

 

[Mkorpal]

Geez they’re terminating those trees with extreme prejudice!

OT since it's the weekend, but Harrison Ford's cameo in Apocalypses Now has to be to top five of all time.

 

[davecolene0606]

So what can we do to fight the FUD? It took Tesla years to overcome the narrative here. I don't want to see giga Berlin derailed because of ignorance of the protestors.

All social media needs to be flooded with pics of the trees being planted by Tesla! Folks in Germany would do more for the cause posting these pics and fewer of the factory progress.

Really needs to be lopsided and emphasis on the variety being planted.

Having said that, love the info stream from Brandenburg!

Fire Away!
(It’s the batteries, Stupid!)

 

[JustMe]

Commercial logging equipment is hugely efficient at clearing. These trees don't look to be particularly large or difficult to process and likely take a feller buncher a matter of seconds to gather and cut. It also seems to be merchantable timber which may have some decent demand.

There may also be certain wildlife permits associated with removing these trees as fast as possible to minimize the risk of birds nesting in areas that have presumably been swept prior to clearing... at least that is how it works in Canada.

(I've cleared a lot of trees for Highway work, but I saved a lot more when I was a Forest Firefighter )

I read somewhere that this tree farm is used as source material for cardboard.

Once all the paperwork is in order, German industry can be very efficient.

 

[Prunesquallor]

The stars at night are big and bright
*clap*clap*clap*clap*
Deep in the heart of Texas!

FTFY

 

[EV forever]

LOL, Tesla just sent out their weekly summary of the TSLA price action...

Monday opening to Friday close...

Wait for it...

+$0.03

Ugh
Reading a 7000 page forum for a boring stock that only moves 3 cents for the whole week!!! Clearly I need to get more excitement in my life!

 

[JRP3]

I see a lot of disagrees here but recently I had a long conversation with an auto industry expert who told me he thinks a skateboard deal between Tesla and at least one major OEM is a good possibility.

Hmmm.....So which products does he thinks Tesla will delay building so they can provide skateboards to other OEM's? Or does he mean empty skateboards, batteries not included?

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Fri, Feb 14, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $801.45
Volume: 15,724,883
Traded: $12,602,666,572.82 ($12.6B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 99.82%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)​

Comment: "MMs pinned SP to $800 throughout the day into the Close".

 

[MC3OZ]

Thinking through the areas that Tesla has a strong advantage in terms of experience and engineering talent, I remember that EM stated at one point a few years ago that Tesla makes the world's best inverters. Witnessing the drive-train efficiency advantage that Tesla has in practice seems to indicate that they may indeed make a very efficient inverter.

Current practice for Tesla Solar seems to be that they are using readily available commercial solar PV inverters. For now, it seems to have made sense to continue that trend. In the spirit of vertical integration, and as the solar sales and Solar Roof installations scale, it may make sense to:

1. Integrate a solar inverter into the Powerwall
2. Design and produce a solar PV inverter for Solar Roof
3. Design and produce integrated panel/microinverter PV modules

or some combination of the above.

I've not heard much discussion on this and only see some fairly old articles exploring the possibilities. What does the hivemind here think?

Yes, Tesla energy is a personal hobby horse of mine, I can see lots of potential to do more, simply because all problems with 100% RE are not yet solved.

My original interest in Tesla stemmed from an interest in RE, I'm probably one of the few that started researching the Powerwall before all other products....

Specifically in relation to the Australia gird there are some problems where Tesla can made a contribution and make some money..

So problems are an opportunity, not that Tesla will necessarily be interested in all of them, but they may be interested in some.

1. Solar Farm Inverters - some new solar farms are having problem with inverters, I don't know the exact issue. Due to grid issues I am expect solar farm projects to go down in scale and add a battery, fitting the projects to the current shape of the grid.
The opportunity is for Tesla to provide a package solution - inverter + battery + software...

2. Network costs - these are 42% of the electricity price in Australia at present, some of that is over investment in substations about the time households started deploying solar and energy efficient lighting due to high prices... Worse still the grid is the wrong shape, it runs along the east coast mainly out of ageing coal plants, many of the good RE resources particularly solar are inland and many solar farm projects are held up awaiting grid updates (in addition to their inverter problems and issues due to the lack of a battery). So what is really needed here is a total "first principles" rethink on how we construct and maintain electrcity grids... that might be something Tesla can contribute to by developing products and solutions ... not getting heavily involved in construction.. And if part of the solution is a fragmentation into connected micro-grids.... Tesla can get involved at the micro-grid level..

3. Seasonal Variation - batteries solve daily variation over 24 hours very well, but for the summer / winter cycle longer term storage is needed. There are alternatives, pumped hydro, hydrogen, liquefied compressed air, synthetic fuels, etc... If Tesla could develop some sort of product that efficiently stored energy on a long term basis, solar farms are a ready market...

There are more problems than this, and hence more opportunities, so 100% RE is far from a totally solved problem with no challenges.
Issues are surfacing in Australia first because in many ways we are further down the track, but these problems will eventually surface in many places worldwide, so any products developed have a global market.

 

[KarenRei]

I'm stealing a new name for the "forest" being cleared for Giga Berlin, from a tweet I came across:

"IKEA Wald"

 

[davecolene0606]

I'm stealing a new name for the "forest" being cleared for Giga Berlin, from a tweet I came across:

"IKEA Wald"

Hey let’s pass the word to get pics of the trees being planted, super important to build support and fend off FUD for G Berlin.

Cheers!

Fire Away!
(It’s the batteries, Stupid!)

 

[Fred42]

I'm stealing a new name for the "forest" being cleared for Giga Berlin, from a tweet I came across:

"IKEA Wald"

And I prefer tree farm to forest as it was planted for the purpose of harvesting for commercial use.

 

[ZeApelido]

Weekend OT:

This is why we can't handle roundabouts in 'Merica

 

[Freder Reeve]

pheew good reaction by that kitty under the car near sidewalk.