Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chickenlittle]

Today’s price action being attributed to multiple issues bu I believe the real reason to be Goldman’s and Morgan

I hope admins don’t call this stupid but look at every past stock raise price goes up pushed by issuers. Goldman May even raise previous price target but be careful once complete and Goldman sells shares will drop a bit to previous level

Deadline to get additional options on the raise is tomorrow. Everything right on schedule. They will sell shares in few days and price will drop. I still believe that tsla good long term investment but look at pattern of all previous raises.

 

[woodisgood]

I'm really happy for the folks that were able to turn pennies into millions playing options on the recent run-up. But in sharing your successful stories, please understand that there may be many new-to-options investors that will be tempted to duplicate your success, possibly with disastrous consequences. I'm not saying TSLA long calls won't be profitable in the future, or that there aren't very profitable ways to play options, but perhaps not quite to the extent in the way they have been where any novice could buy a call and turn a few hundred bucks into tens of thousands. Certainly the high premiums are part of preventing that kind of appreciation, but there will be other factors at play too.

There has been a very obvious and well-known increase in TSLA call options - options-writers stand to lose WAY too much in the coming years on these calls, and one way or another, they'll make sure the successes of TSLA call buyers is not sustainable.

 

[Chocochip]

Schock für 1400 Mitarbeiter: Autohaus Wichert stellt Insolvenzantrag

Largest VW Dealer in the North = Insolvent

Does that mean there's a large -- and increasing -- pool of available workforce for Tesla to pick from? Sounds like we're about to witness some serious resource redistribution in the auto industry in the next couple of years.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

So, based on Adam Jonas 'success' with his bear-base-bull $10-$250-$500 price target spread in December (afair) and his 'upgrade' today to ???-$500-$1,200, should we expect 3*$500 or 1.5*$1,200 by May ???

 

[Pezpunk]

I discounted bitcoin early on as a "weird internet libertarian thing". Back then I could have just mined it with my PC and made a boatload.

OT:

a couple years back, I built my own mining rig out of then-brand-new AMD Vega 56 video cards. at peak, I had 10 cards running simultaneously. they generated so much heat (which i moved through the house using fans) that we didn't even have to turn our furnace on all winter, and that was with the windows to my office open! They were obviously consuming quite a lot of electricity, but at the same time, Bitcoin (and the alt-coins i was mining) were going through the roof. Every coin I made, I instantly converted to US dollars. I admit i was just in it to make a quick buck and get out -- honestly i was simply more curious than greedy. Otherwise I would have HODLed more. But I always liked building and tweaking "gamer rigs" and this was beyond the mother of all gaming rigs, haha, with the added bonus that my obsession with tweaks and tuning was making me money hand over fist.

that Spring, i sold it for more than i paid to build it, since there was no way i'd be able to run it in the house once it was warm out. also, yikes, it just feels gross consuming all that electricity no matter how much money it's generating.

I still think Bitcoin is a weird internet libertarian thing, by the way. Blockchain technology is fascinating, but the set of applications for which it's really the best solution is extremely narrow.

 

[humbaba]

A positive article from Consumer Reports (what's the world coming to? )

Tesla Ups Ante on Model Y Range, Underscoring Its EV Lead

Of course they had to throw in some excuses for the poor range of "competitors"!

The lie about how Tesla "tests range differently" than other manufacturers really gets on my nerves. At the end of the day each manufacturer sells a car with a battery having so many kWh usable and a drive train that can achieve a certain efficiency. Those two factors combine to determine the range, its as simple as that, and Tesla cannot magically do anything different.

Is it more complicated underneath? For example, drive train efficiency varying with temperature, age, SoC level, vehicle speed, etc.? Are there consequences for choices into how the battery can be discharged?

Sure, but at the high level Consumer misReports is writing at those don't matter. And the EPA testing requirements take away some of the variability by putting all vehicles on effectively equal footing. The insinuation that Tesla uses more of the battery pack's capacity in order to cheat for a higher range rating is misleading and dangerous.

Of far greater concern is the distinct possibility that Porsche used unsafe trade offs in the drive train to extract the performance needed to appear competitive with a Model S.

 

[Drumheller]

This morning, I received an offer from Schwab for a line of credit on my account, so long as I agreed to initially take at least 70% of the offered line of credit. I did not apply / ask for this. It could simply be an algorithm that triggered to send the offer after my account passed a set value. I also note that this account is mostly TSLA and I don't have any margin use or any other reason to allow my shares to be lent out.

Anecdotal, but maybe another example of firms trying to shake some shares loose.

 

[StealthP3D]

In my very short investment experience, I've discovered that

1. the market is very late to identify promising companies (b/c it keeps speculating on end of quarters)
2. it is also very late to lose interest in companies that are no longer promising.

So I should continue to

1. buy them early (e.g TSLA in 2012)
2. but also force myself to sell late (that means several years after the company has become boring in my eyes).

The best strategy for that is to buy, hold, forgot about your shares until you actually lose complete interest in the company, wait a little bit more (because you hesitate to pay that much taxes), forgot about the company again, and only sell because you need the money to buy stakes in other companies whose products are exciting.

I was going to agree with you except, looking back on my investing career, I would say the biggest mistake I tend to make is to buy promising companies too early! Which is why Tesla is still a "buy" in my book. (Assuming I hadn't already doubled my position @ $184).

Selling a good company too early is a bigger investment sin but I tend to not have that problem. Don't get me wrong, I've sold many a company too early (MSFT at $130 last April) but only to buy more promising companies (in this instance, TSLA). I don't sell a company just because it's gone 3-6 months without appreciation (if I can see more potential). But that is exactly the mistake that is so commonly made. People will sell simply because it hasn't gone up in a few months (or even a year or three). Dumbest mistake ever. The longer it is that a good company hasn't appreciated, the quicker it can rise when it finally does. Because it's become so under-valued. If I knew a company was going to be flat for three years, of course, I would sell. But one never "knows" that, especially with fast-growing companies. The mistake of selling too early has its origins in trying to time those flat periods. And that, my friend, is what consistently burns so many investors. Because the thinking that they can time the flat periods eventually causes them to miss out on the compounding returns (which lead to the biggest gains over time).

 

[wipster]

Do I count as an algobot?

No, but I do sometimes wonder if you're real

 

[Todd Burch]

So, based on Adam Jonas 'success' with his bear-base-bull $10-$250-$500 price target spread in December (afair) and his 'upgrade' today to ???-$500-$1,200, should we expect 3*$500 or 1.5*$1,200 by May ???

Morgan Stanley raises its ‘bull case’ on Tesla to $1,200

Back when I was a meteorologist many years ago, we used to call his price forecasting as "Nowcasting"...the uncanny ability to forecast the present . We should hit $1200 within days now, lol.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I am starting to believe I have desensitized to TSLA. It appears to be the usual pattern with different numbers (SP, Volume, MMD, fade into the close). Maybe I'm missing something?

I do, however, remain very excited about Tesla

 

[Rammstein]

Well yes, except that I was 27 years old, had very little money and no knowledge of the stock market!

Hence why 10 years later I decided to invest very heavily in Tesla

Same here. Ever since the iPhone I’ve been looking for the next product that is far superior. I missed Amazon because the media told me it was a money loser and that competition was coming. That taught me not to trust the media. Then Tesla comes and it’s almost the perfect setup. A product that is way better than the competition and it was a money loser so the stock was extremely under valued. It’s pretty ironic that I made my money working for oil companies and now making even more money with Tesla.

 

[rsm287]

I'm starting to bug my local SC about getting the new FSD computer. I tend to get updates earlier than most and I really want to be able to spend a day playing with that feature before the general public figures it out. If Nav in City works really well I'll probably drastically increase my leverage because to me that will mean that Robotaxis are likely in the near-ish term. If it sucks then I'll probably hold back.

Bear in mind that new features can be a little glitchy when they're first released. With a tight feedback loop they get improved over time (with more miles driven) and eventually become really good. But don't expect them to be amazing straight out of the gate. The general public may be underwhelmed initially and it will take time for them to appreciate how good it can be. With a better knowledge of how these things work, a smart investor could potentially use that time-lag to their advantage.

 

[Drax7]

A Battery day that implies a much better battery technology, may well Osborne
Current sales. Curious to see how they thread this needle.
Any thoughts out there ?

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR:

Why is there discussion about Bill Gates or about bitcoin mining in this thread?

Answer: there is no reason. End it now.

==> THIS IS NOT A CHAT GROUP. <==

 

[KarenRei]

So, the other day I was bitcoin mining with Bill Gates... oops, wait, just saw the mod note, sorry!

Suffice to say, I cannot trade like you with such firm belief.

What's your fear? My worst case in a gap up is... the exact same situation I started in (except each time I make a gain, it's locked in, from the moment I buy back a sold call). Gap up, the resell-at-a-higher-strike order triggers, and we continue up, with me in a better position than I started.

My worst case in general is a huge SP crash that lasts for over a year, with no volatility in the intervening time; such a case would cost me a fairly minor fraction of my shares that were used to pay for the option buybacks for rolling. Fairly minor fraction, and very low SPs, because as I've (as mentioned) used a fairly nonaggressive rolling strategy that assumes that dramatic SP drops are possible (and thus backloads more aggressive buybacks to particularly low prices, when I can buy back the options for pennies on the dollar that I got for selling them in the first place)

 

[ABCTG]

At Giga Berlin; The tree plantation harvesting may have been paused but there is plenty of other progress.
Power lines, roads being put in..

 

[SpaceCash]

A Battery day that implies a much better battery technology, may well Osborne
Current sales. Curious to see how they thread this needle.
Any thoughts out there ?

I think they've delayed battery day for so long for this exact reason; by the time battery day occurs they will already be delivering the updated goods, imo. Similar to the upgraded S/X range which they only announced after the fact.

 

[sundaymorning]

Shock for the Hamburg car industry and especially for the employees: The car dealership Wichert has filed for bankruptcy proceedings with the district court in the middle, as court spokesman Kai Wantzen confirmed when asked by MOPO. Wichert is the largest VW dealership in the north and employs 1400 people at 23 locations in and around Hamburg. Business operations are initially to be maintained.
There will be a "self-administration procedure", which means that the management will continue to manage the company, together with a so-called "property manager", a lawyer appointed by the district court. The latter will now check whether Autohaus Wichert GmbH is over-indebted and / or insolvent and what are the prospects for continuing operations. A creditors' committee, in which, for example, bank representatives sit, is involved in drawing up a possible restructuring plan.
Autohaus Wichert in Hamburg since 1986
Hamburgers have bought their cars from the traditional company since 1986. Wichert is one of the most important car dealerships of the Volkswagen Group nationwide (Audi, Seat, Skoda, VW, VW commercial vehicles). In 2018, the dealership is said to have sold almost 18,000 vehicles, with sales of over 350 million euros, as reported by the industry service "kfz-Betrieb".
Autohaus Wichert: Turbo growth in 2019
Has the company grown too quickly? Particularly in 2019, Wichert had been vigorously focused on growth, taken over locations and employees of the insolvent competitor Autohaus Willy Tiedtke at the beginning of the year, and opened a 21,000-square-meter Audi terminal in November.

Schock für 1400 Mitarbeiter: Autohaus Wichert stellt Insolvenzantrag

Largest VW Dealer in the North = Insolvent

I believe this is just the beginning, more dealership closure will signal the shift to EVs.

 

[Nocturnal]

I still think Bitcoin is a weird internet libertarian thing, by the way. Blockchain technology is fascinating, but the set of applications for which it's really the best solution are extremely narrow.

Yes. It's 100% still just a speculative play because as is Bitcoin isn't usable as a currency. I own a small stake just as a hedge because I do see a possible future. Take countries with hyper inflation. Those people could have held some wealth in crypto and would have not have been wiped out. I also see a possibility that at some point central banks will start to buy in due to FOMO and that would cause a big spike in value.

This morning, I received an offer from Schwab for a line of credit on my account, so long as I agreed to initially take at least 70% of the offered line of credit. I did not apply / ask for this. It could simply be an algorithm that triggered to send the offer after my account passed a set value. I also note that this account is mostly TSLA and I don't have any margin use or any other reason to allow my shares to be lent out.

Anecdotal, but maybe another example of firms trying to shake some shares loose.

That just means you are now in the rich guy club. A driver will come by later with your password and creepy mask for the Eyes Wide Shut party this Friday.