Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CyberDutchie]

Morgan Stanley is buying E*Trade. I was an MS client for my IRA account for years and used to receive Adam Jonas’ research notes. But I ignored the investment adviser’s “advise” to sell the TSLA holdings in my portfolio too many times, so they kicked me out as a client. The sell advice was constant: at $45, at $90, at $180... good thing I ignored all of them.

 

[KarenRei]

Did that trip to $860 a few minutes ago do it for you?

Surprisingly not. :Þ Maybe I'm being too ambitious with what strikes I'm looking to buy back at my price points, at this IV level.

 

[AudubonB]

Needing to itch a scratch from the past hour's discussion here, I just went back and, starting with Post #1 in the "What Other Tech Stock to Consider?" thread, searched until I found the first entry for GTAT.

Yep: there it is: Sep. 9 2013. Look who its author was: What other tech stock to consider?

Now, the investor who lost everything in it was Sleepyhead. I do recall his making an appearance in the GTAT chat group for some time after the collapse but even were I to remember the specifics, they are not on point.

The fall of GTAT remains - as I hope it ever shall - the single largest loss I ever have incurred. One thing I do know, however, is that the only forum members I ever tried to persuade to join in on the fun were those of you who were guests at our lodge - i.e., zero.

AND WITH THAT, unless you are going to make a very specific point about TSLA, all GTAT discussion is to be performed in and only in that "Other Tech" thread.

 

[AudubonB]

By the way, is the market on FSD? It's been zooming down the wrong lane for some time now.

 

[Remus]

I'm confused about this LFP prisma cells.

I thought a significant competitive edge is using large amount of cylinder lithium-ion cells to achieve low cost while maintaining high performance.

Now we're going back?

Isn't BYD the one insisted on using LFP on their crappy cars that can only charge at 60kw max? Isn't prisma cells significantly more expensive than cylinder cells?

 

[StealthP3D]

To be fair the Virgin ticket won't be one way.

I thought virgin tickets were always one-way?

 

[dw4ngg]

I hope y'all are still scared, b/c I just bought bought bought....

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Market instantly down 1%. This smells like a quick blow-off top after everything hit ATH yesterday. Just waiting, I guess.

 

[Jooop]

I'm confused about this LFP prisma cells.

I thought a significant competitive edge is using large amount of cylinder lithium-ion cells to achieve low cost while maintaining high performance.

Now we're going back?

Isn't BYD the one insisted on using LFP on their crappy cars that can only charge at 60kw max? Isn't prisma cells significantly more expensive than cylinder cells?

Perhaps Tesla can use Maxwell tech to improve it? Resulting in lower cost for a cheaper EV, but still pretty good performance?

 

[azaz]

I'm confused about this LFP prisma cells.

I thought a significant competitive edge is using large amount of cylinder lithium-ion cells to achieve low cost while maintaining high performance.

Now we're going back?

Isn't BYD the one insisted on using LFP on their crappy cars that can only charge at 60kw max? Isn't prisma cells significantly more expensive than cylinder cells?

also wondering this, what's the competitive advantage if they are just buying cells from CATL like anyone else.

but I think the explanation is as simple as they are battery constrained and need more batteries than they can make themselves right now. and yes the CATL cells might not be as good as their proprietary cylindrical cells but it's a tradeoff they think is worth it for the Chinese market.

also, the whole CATL thing could just be CATL pumping their stock lol

 

[sparcs]

I'm confused about this LFP prisma cells.

I thought a significant competitive edge is using large amount of cylinder lithium-ion cells to achieve low cost while maintaining high performance.

Now we're going back?

Isn't BYD the one insisted on using LFP on their crappy cars that can only charge at 60kw max? Isn't prisma cells significantly more expensive than cylinder cells?

It sounds like it is both of those things. Tesla will take advantage of any other battery opportunities as they work toward scaling their own cell production.

 

[KarenRei]

I'm confused about this LFP prisma cells.

I thought a significant competitive edge is using large amount of cylinder lithium-ion cells to achieve low cost while maintaining high performance.

Now we're going back?

Isn't BYD the one insisted on using LFP on their crappy cars that can only charge at 60kw max? Isn't prisma cells significantly more expensive than cylinder cells?

First off, the notion that they're prismatic at this point seems to be mostly speculation, based on a Reuters article, and hasn't been confirmed AFAIK. LFP cylindrical cells are very common.

Secondly, GF3 will take anything they can get their hands on until Tesla's own internal cell supply can ramp. At least with SR, there's extra room for more cells to make up for shortcomings in whatever cells / modules they use. To a degree.

 

[StealthP3D]

Question for the raging bulls with a hold 'em till the wheels fall off strategy.
Would you or do you ever put your shares at risk with selling covered calls? The recent gouging on buying calls has me thinking about selling short term, low probability calls. The way I understand them, at worst, I am forced to sell my 100 shares at the strike price and keep the fee. At best, I still keep the fee and my shares.
The example I'll use here is 3/20/20, $1,200 strike pays $1,600. Would it really be so bad if I sold 100 shares at $1,200 a month from now knowing what I do today.

I would not sell a covered call on TSLA. The premium isn't worth it. The future is hard to predict. One of the things that makes a stock like TSLA worth holding is the possibility of outsized gains. You never know when there might be an announcement that will make the market go crazy. Why sell your rights to that possibility off on the cheap? To me, there is no difference between actually losing money and losing gains that would have been mine had I not done something short-sighted. They are one and the same.

Everyone's situation and goals are different so I'm not saying it couldn't be a good fit in special circumstances. But in general, I don't see them being a good fit with TSLA.

 

[lafrisbee]

I thought virgin tickets were always one-way?

nope, I know of at least one virgin three-way.

 

[Remus]

Perhaps Tesla can use Maxwell tech to improve it? Resulting in lower cost for a cheaper EV, but still pretty good performance?

it is very difficult, this involves licensing the technology to CATL and trust them with develop the technology further. I would say almost impossible.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Perhaps Tesla can use Maxwell tech to improve it? Resulting in lower cost for a cheaper EV, but still pretty good performance?

The CATL batteries for MIC Model 3 are unlikely to be conventional prismatic cells as assumed by certain 'low-information' EV bloggers and Youtubers. They simply don't understand all the engineering considerations, foremost of which is you CAN NOT use a conventional CATL prismatic cell with Tesla's bty cooling design (pack integration nightmare).

Elon himself discussed at length the new pack architecture which no longer includes separate 'modules'; the new-concept battery has cells integrated into the pack directly saving materials overhead in a single assembly, which is made with fewer steps (saving manufacturing overhead). See Tesla's Oct 2019 Bty patent for a overview on the new design.

This new CATL pack is the one that is contracted for delivery beginning in Summer 2020 and will almost certainly go into the MIC Model LR (not the SR), which will be the 2nd MIC product.

CATL packs will NOT replace the LG cell based pack currently in use for the MIC Model 3 SR (inspite of confused reporting by said v/bloggers).

Conventional SR pack-production (which just started in late Dec 2019) will continue unabated at GF3/Shanghai, as the previous short-term supply of GF1/Panasonic SR packs must now be reallocated to Fremont Model Y production.

Side note: Since we'd expect MIC LR to be priced higher than MIC SR, and the CATL-sourced bty pack will be substanially cheaper on a cost/kwh basis, I expect that Gross Margins on the MIC LR Model 3 will be substantially increased.

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

why is everything down?

It's commonly called a market correction.

 

[Chocochip]

Something just occurred to me wrt the court-ordered halt of tree felling at the Giga Berlin. It seems that while the early complaints concerning the possible negative effects on the local wildlife and drinking water availability were a serious consideration and were therefore addressed as such by both Tesla and the local administration, this latest petition from the Green League is seen by most, on all sides of the political spectrum as well as by regular people, as a stupid complaint or as an excuse to delay a major project which would bring significant economical benefits to the region.
So, unintentionally, by being exposed to these ridiculous attacks Tesla may have gained a lot of support from the public, even from those who were skeptical at first. It's difficult to see how, once this temporary hurdle is surpassed, there will be other significant roadblocks from various protest groups etc. when they consider the visible public reaction of support for Tesla in the current situation. Any such group trying to stop this project now would simply subject themselves to public ridicule.
So it might be smooth sailing (at least when it comes to senseless objections, possibly even excessive bureaucracy) for Tesla in Germany.

 

[KarenRei]

This new CATL pack is the one that is contracted for delivery beginning in Summer 2020 and will almost certainly go into the MIC Model LR (not the SR), which will be the 2nd MIC product.

IMHO, no way a M3LR will use LFP. LFP is too low energy density.

 

[ZeApelido]

Exactly! Which is why I'm holding cash. A lot of it. Because I'm not a sailor returning from shore leave. And I still haven't found a home for most of my TSLA calls profits.

In general, I'm only fully invested when everyone is running scared. But everyone's situation is different. I've been retired for a little over 20 years and my only income is that which I generate myself. By holding a large cash balance when the market is booming, I'm more comfortable with a higher weighting in stocks and growth stocks vs. investments with lower returns.

Heck, even when I was a fisherman I always returned from shore leave with plenty of cash remaining. Not because I didn't have fun, but because I brought enough to cover every possible contingency and then some.

Here's one of the more valuable life hacks I found useful for saving money: Don't limit the amount of cash you have on hand thinking that's a good way to limit spending. That just makes you feel poor and want things you can't buy until you have the money readily available. Instead, always ensure you have access to more than enough money. Limit spending by always knowing you could buy whatever you wanted at the moment but that you will be happier overall if you only buy things that will serve you well in the bigger picture. This is how you take charge of your spending without feeling deprived. It forces you to make better decisions. Not because you have to, because you want to. It puts you in charge.

Dude when is your self help/investing book coming out?