Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

First they said Tesla energy was DOA. Then they sold when it turned out they were right!!
What would Elon do???
Bought 15 more

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Reuters has front page Tesla coverage in their app right now. Not of Model Y deliveries.....but NTSB and the Buffalo non-stories.

Sad.

 

[SageBrush]

Pandemic is more than minor

Why don't you look up what pandemic means

 

[Highway2Heel]

The way I read the article, Tesla doesn’t need Panasonic anymore and that’s not a bad thing. When you learn to ride a bike, you take the training wheels off. Maybe not the best analogy but hopefully you get my point...

 

[dl003]

Why don't you look up what pandemic means

Here's how one can look at it:
When NTSB said they were gonna grill Tesla, that was an epidemic
When it's all said and done and Apple, Tesla, the driver, the video game industry, the CA freeway authority, and the cellphone carriers all got slammed, it became a pandemic

 

[lafrisbee]

Who's going to want to make an operating system for an industry that's dying though? Doesn't seem like a good idea to build operating systems for traditional auto, which is going to face enormous financial difficulties over the coming years, and whose existence is being threatened by Tesla.

And if Microsoft built THE system? Well wouldn't all those car companies be "the same"...like having android in a Motorola or a One+? The choice would be "Apple/Tesla" or "Android/Ford Chevy Mercedes jaguar fiatdodge etc".

 

[Highway2Heel]

Obviously the point of posting that was to show how fallacious this line of thinking is. Or, to be more explicit, let's start reading from the thread around the day I highlighted:

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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Or several days later...

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Or several days later, right before another big ramp...

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The point is that one's gut getting used to a low price point has no bearing on where the stock will trend once the market decides that the premises on which that pricing was based have fundamentally changed.

When fundamentals change for the better and a new paradigm is understood, gaps aren’t filled and lower prices that fill gaps should not be an expectation. We have a gap from $580 to $650 that I don’t think will ever be filled much less the one from 2013. We’ve had a massive change in the collective understanding of Tesla’s fundamentals since January 29, 2020.

 

[lafrisbee]

I'll add my detective work to yours.

Using your pixel-to-CO2 conversion, FCA estimates that starting from 125 g/km emission, they can get the following reductions:
1) 8.1 g/km by eco-innovations despite lower diesel-to-petrol mix of vehicle sales
2) 10.2 g/km by selling their own PHEVs and BEVs. Note this will use up all the Super-Credits (if the PHEVs emit <50 g/km)
3) 2.5 g/km by excluding the worst 5% of the polluters (this would correspond to the equivalent of ~150 g/km for those vehicle).

That leaves 9.2 g/km - a penalty of €770 million - to be reduced by pooling with Tesla to reach 95 g/km.
I used a FCA fleet size corresponding to JATO's 919,000 (I may have been in error with my lower estimate - was using Fiat only). My calculations say this would take 85,000 Teslas with a penalty reduction value of €9,000 per Tesla (no Super-Credits).

edit: clarified 1)

You're a SICK puppy for Doing these calculations, for knowing how to do them, and sharing them with us in an almost legible manner.
Thank you...

 

[mal_tsla]

6/7 devices in a moving model X aren't in the driver's hands.

Cars often have passengers. Anyone who suggests phone makers or carriers can fix distracted driving should be required to present a way to distinguish between driver and passenger.

The real solution is better attention monitoring for drivers. And not just when using driving automation...

The carriers are responsible. RF (Radio Frequency data service ie celluar service) is the root of distracted driving. The carriers KNOW that the device they are directing their RF feed to is moving. The carrier technology 100% knows this. The primary delivery device is the purpose built cellular transmission tower. It is built exquisitely perfected to deliver that RF and hand-off that RF specifically for moving vehicles.

It is well known from studies that distracted driving is driving with diminished capacity (similar to drunk driving - duckduckgo is your friend) The carriers deliver the RF that is profoundly responsible for distraction and directly related to the horrible consequences resulting.

The analogy is the bartender. The bartender knowingly delivers the RF (the drink) to a moving vehicle. The phone is analogous to the glass where it shapes the attractiveness of the alcohol drink and how it is consumed but the RF delivery is the distraction. It is the problem, the alcohol, the distraction etc.

I agree there is another discussion related to the phone and the user but I see it as far secondary.

Why do I think this way? It is related to experience in the highly regulated medical field. Why do we have an opioid crisis? The people being sued are those that deliver the product to the market approved for a particular use and yet they know that the prescription usage profile does not fit their approved labeling. They are knowledgeable of the misuse, they continue to provide the product and market it, they are at root responsible.

The RF delivery carriers go even further in that they specifically designed an RF delivery network focused on delivering the RF product in the way it would be most damaging to the user. The carriers are an arms dealer in the "war for eyeballs" that Andy Grove at Intel spoke about.

Impressions from Comdex - Nov. 21, 1996

When we wonder who is irked by autonomous driving, we should be aware that when FSD becomes available, it would be easily possible for carriers to only provide RF to safer vehicles in autonomous mode. Carriers stand to become more obviously liable when there are safe and unsafe vehicle options available and they knowingly have a business practice to provide distracting RF to non-autonomous vehicles.

 

[BornToFly]

For the next month, the SP has nothing to do with Tesla's long term outlook anymore. It's all about the virus. They are talking about cancelling the Olympics!!!! I'm backing up the truck at 500.

 

[avoigt]

Sorry didn't misst that? Do we have a Tesla event confirmed for March 15?

BTW Giga Berlin should also have an official construction kickoff event in March like Shanghai did on January 7 2019. As far as I recall Elon has confirmed he will attend.

He confirmed but I highly doubt that this will be in March. An open hearing is 2nd half of March and the filing of complains & clarification requests ends at March 15th

Ground breaking will only happen if the construction permit has been approved and that will come in if all goes well end of March. All of this is BTW according to the plan.

April will be a busy month for Elon ...

 

[ReflexFunds]

What is the NTSB news?

The Panasonic news is a bit confusing. Is Panasonic pulling out of the Buffalo plant, but Tesla continuing. What does that mean does Tesla get to continue building the products (solar panels and solar roof) and Panasonic no longer involved. Maybe just a license to use the Panasonic patents and designs?

Panasonic has been winding down parts of its solar business for some time.
Tesla has not been using Panasonic panels, i presume because Panasonic would not invest in the R&D required to redesign its modules to Tesla's final specification.
Tesla can continue building solar roofs as normal.

But now potentially Tesla can move its actual solar module supplier into the factory, or even possibly start building solar modules itself under license (low odds right now i think).
Or just continue importing solar modules and use the space for other products.

 

[azaz]

options getting crushed today, thought I'd mention it since I know some people have been looking to buy in at lower premiums

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Found this interesting article. It's about two weeks old, but I did not yet see it posted here (but even a mod can miss something):

Could Google Acquire Tesla For $250 Billion?

It's found the article of interest not so much because of the (im)probability of an acquisition by Google, but because of the possible outlook for Tesla's growth that it paints.

 

[Fact Checking]

options getting crushed today, thought I'd mention it since I know some people have been looking to buy in at lower premiums

Pretty much all options series farther out than a week still have very high IV...

 

[EVMeister]

G

 

[EVMeister]

reen

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Panasonic has been winding down parts of its solar business for some time.
Tesla has not been using Panasonic panels, i presume because Panasonic would not invest in the R&D required to redesign its modules to Tesla's final specification.
Tesla can continue building solar roofs as normal.

Tesla would install Panasonic panels if you requested them, probably still would today until supply is gone.

Half the stated reason for GF2 was to be a hedge against standard panel cost going up due to shortage/tariff/whatever. None of that has come to pass so they're likely not gonna produce any standard panels moving forward. Solar roof, energy storage products, maybe supercharger fabrication, or something altogether new down the line?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

reen

I'm throwing the flag for fraudulent duplicate 'funny' tag manufacturing.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

For the next month, the SP has nothing to do with Tesla's long term outlook anymore. It's all about the virus. They are talking about cancelling the Olympics!!!! I'm backing up the truck at 500.

I don't think SP gets below $700 through all this, but who knows how deep this macro pressure goes. My plan is to sell $500-550 puts when I think we've bottomed. Perfectly happy to double my exposure at that level if the apocalypse hits.