Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jw934]

My question is simply... on the known Tesla portion, when would the revenue likely hit the books?

If the original plan does not / has not changed then the online date is 12/31/2020. That is when I expect the revenue to be recognized. GreenTechMedia : PG&E Proposes World’s Biggest Batteries to Replace South Bay Gas Plants

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Yeah, I saw that PUT volume at the $750 strike yesterday, but it hasn't really shifted the overall picture. Here's a detail of the relevent Strikes for tomorrow's Options expiry (Red-PUTS Blue-CALLS)

View attachment 515656

As you can see, if the SP slips below $800 at the Close on Friday, PUTS start to come into the money. Just at $800 there are 8.45k contracts. That means that for every dollar the SP closes below $800, Options writes have to pay out about $845,000 to the holders of those PUTS. If the SP were to close at $750 as you suggest, that would require payments of $42,250,000 just for the $800 PUTS, but also as you can see above, there's more and more PUTS coming into the money as you go down.

Further, the value of the OTM PUTS (ie: there's 10.08k PUTS open at the $700 Strike) those contracts will be closed for cash before expiry.

IMHO, I think it takes a *sugar* load of news to overcome this buying interest on behalf of the Options writers, who BTW are predominately deep-pocketed MMs. Of course, these are unusual circumstances and there is a full-court press on right now blitzing the CORO FUD, so who knows what the day brings. Trade 'em accordingly.

Cheers!

Did they not hedge those put contracts?

 

[Huskyf]

Tesla battery power plant approved in Moss Landing

boom!!!

A couple of diverse observations during my trip to Italy:
1) Yesterday around 11am going south on the E-43 on the way to Lugano, Switzerland I overtook a transport with Italian registration plate with 6 Porsche Taycans of which at least one was a Turbo. Sorry, no pictures.
2) The Imperia Supercharger uses the employee parking lot of the olive oil producer Carli. Their outlet usually has plenty of product samples sitting around in the store, but not last night. I assume it's to reduce the risk of spreading any viruses.
Also, Carli's on-site museum of the history of olive oil production since antiquity is highly recommendable.
3) Yesterday and also 8 weeks ago Imperia's stall 5B was unable to provide power. Since this is ongoing I have to assume Tesla is unaware of this. How can one best report a persistent problem with a Supercharger stall?
4) My Autopilot's autosteer ("Lenkassistent") is only able to operate for about 10 - 25 minutes, before it shuts itself down with a very brief warning, leaving only Cruise Control available. A Service Center visit some months ago didn't help. Putting the car even briefly into park reenables autosteer, but this is not practical on the Autobahn. I believe Jason Hughes (@wk057) has tweeted about this problem, that so far seems to have no solution. I did manage to have a couple of photographs taken of the disengaging autosteer, attached. Any pointers for solving this problem would be appreciated.
5) In Frankfurt SP has now gone down to 695€.View attachment 515650 View attachment 515651

About autopilot did you go to more than 150 km/h ->because if you do that the autopilot cut off it's normal the maximal speed for autopilot is 150. You have the same problem if you didn't keep your hands on the steering w

 

[AlexS]

I am expecting now full blown panic in next few days until Italy will get their situation more or less contained. Then it will be proven that it is possible to contain these situations and probably market will find a bottom.

edit: also South Korea

 

[Artful Dodger]

What evidence is there for deliveries looking “great”? Pictures of some cars in Germany and Taiwan?

Estimated delivery dates for all European countries is now May 2020 or later. This implies that currently enroute inventory is already sold out.

Further, there have been zero price reductions or purchase incentives like free supercharging offered in 2020Q1. This also speaks to strong sales, as Tesla feels no need to pull any demand levers.

Its gonna be fine. You can relax. Q1 is handled.

Cheers!

 

[avoigt]

Estimated delivery dates for all European countries is now May 2020 or later. This implies that currently en-route inventory is already sold out.

Further, there have been zero price reductions or purchase incentives like free supercharging offered in 2020Q1. This also speaks to strong sales, as Tesla feels no need to pull any demand levers.

Its gonna be fine. You can relax. Q1 is handled.

Cheers!

Also it seems that the number of ships arriving or arrived in Europe (including Island ) is high. Thats another positive indication.

 

[FrankSG]

• Europe: If you order a new Model 3, S or X anywhere in Europe today, the delivery estimates are already out to May - i.e. all incoming inventory on ships has been mostly spoken for in Q1 already.
• China: configurator switched to Q2 delivery back in January already. Tesla was the #1 Chinese EV maker in January both by production (2,625) and by deliveries (3,183 units).
  
• U.S.: delivery time for a new Model 3 is 3-5 weeks. This same metric was 1-2 weeks a year ago.

There's also a lack of price adjustments in the U.S. so far, despite the $1,875 reduction in the federal tax credit in January.

Isn't China showing Q3 already for overseas M3 orders?

And that's fantastic news for S+X demand if they are all sold out in EU already. I knew about M3, but had no idea MS+X were selling so well.

I wonder how much free exposure and new demand the amazing TSLA run over the past ~10 weeks has brought Tesla.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Also it seems that the number of ships arriving or arrived in Europe (including Island ) is high. Thats another positive indication.

Yeah, no kidding wot? Personally, I'm excited for this sale. Not just hodling; I've got $50K locked'n'loaded on the sidelines for when I see the reversal. Just over 4 wks to P&D day, then 3 more wks to Q1 Earnings. Exciting times!

Cheers!

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

This Corona fear has all indexes in panic mode which is now making its way into $TSLA. I made the painstaken decision to sell my $TSLA shares this morning. I have always said I wouldn't sell before 2K but I never saw a pandemic scenario. I do believe I can buyback next week at good discount. good luck to everyone staying long. I hope for everyone's sake I end up buying back at higher price but I need to lock in current gains.

 

[Heimdallr]

Tesla is safe and sound, in fact that's an understatement. It's firing on all cylinders.

That being said, TSLA will fall in line with the markets or more as this virus crisis is starting to impact the economy. Overreaction is very likely. I sold all my shares last week at $891 and it'd be a nice trade if I just buy back in now at $742 currently. But I'm inclined to wait a few weeks to get an idea how this plays out. Another (maybe better) way would have been to get protective puts.

 

[Highway2Heel]

I’ve been the guy having to sell because of margin overextension. That’s not me this time. I have been deploying small amounts on dips. Dips that I truly have no desire to capitalize on since I’m well aware of how it might jade some of our newer stock brethren and sistren. We need their support literally and figuratively.

 

[avoigt]

This Corona fear has all indexes in panic mode which is now making its way into $TSLA. I made the painstaken decision to sell my $TSLA shares this morning. I have always said I wouldn't sell before 2K but I never saw a pandemic scenario. I do believe I can buyback next week at good discount. good luck to everyone staying long. I hope for everyone's sake I end up buying back at higher price but I need to lock in current gains.

If you believe in your own analytics that we are in panic mode it's time to buy not to sell.

Your argumentation is quite often stated for people selling but what they really say, and it may be different with yourself, is that they could not manage the emotional pressure any more.

If thats the case for you I recommend to reconsider if the stock market is a good place for you.

WallStreet is not a casino and has nothing to do with luck but with hard work. To manage you own emotions and get used to do the opposite of what your instincts tell you which is usually hit or run, is hard but can be learned.

 

[juanmedina]

$736 pre-market

 

[Heimdallr]

If you believe in your own analytics that we are in panic mode it's time to buy not to sell.

We might be only at the start of panic mode. Wall Street is just starting to realize now that this virus could have an effect on companies bottom lines...

 

[johnnybgood888]

Hit my buy point premarket this morning and picked up 100 shares under $740.

 

[cricketman]

I am continuing to load up. It makes no sense why the future of Tesla has anything whatsoever to do with Coronovirus. The worst that could happen is slightly lower sales in Q1 which would then be made up in Q2. And Tesla has a bunch of cash in hand anyway to ride this out.

If anything this would be net positive for Tesla if some not-so-cash rich OEMs fall by the wayside earlier than previously thought

The more this drops, the more I will buy, and the richer I will later become

 

[UCF3]

Hit my buy point premarket this morning and picked up 100 shares under $740.

If we hit $699 you buying another 100?

lots of dry powder waiting for $699

 

[ammulder]

And how 'bout that sign on the left: 5 new Supercharger locations coming soon!

 

[johnnybgood888]

If we hit $699 you buying another 100?

I'm buying an extra 100 for every $20 drop from this point.

 

[chrsk]

You are not making sense. If you think it will be higher in the coming years, and you are in for the long haul, why would you sell and pay taxes on your gains just because it MIGHT dip between now and then. Why would you even care if it dipped between now and then (assuming you are not margined to the hilt)?

You cannot time stock market crashes "based on history". There is too much variability between stock market crashes for past crashes to have ANY predictive value as to when the next one might happen. Your comments sound like what someone might say if they were trying to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt. Mostly because you don't bring any valid ammunition to the table.

I've ridden a number of stock crashes out and they are not a problem as long as you don't sell on the way to the bottom. If there was a crash, imagine how strong TSLA would power out of it. It would likely be one of the first to recover based on how many people want a piece of it but want a deal.

There is real fear in the market at the moment. I dont think that will disappear anytime soon. Japan announced that they will close all schools until April, here in Norway a cruise ship skipped visiting Tromsø because of one know case of Coronavirus and Italy locks down cities to avoid spread.

Even though Tesla is arguably one of the stocks that will recover fastest, this does not make it immune to the market drop that we now see. Can't imagine that the corona problem will disappear/be solved any time soon, so the uncertainty will remain as even more countries get the disease.

Bought my first shares back in 2013, got my first car back in 2013 and have bought three more after that. So I love the company, but I think it's fair to address the possibility that we now might see a substantial drop even though we are headed higher down the road.