Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LJS22]

Bears want close under $733. Expect push down at open to make this possible, and a push back to resist.

Not advice.

I think it gets brought back to $750 to start, then from there it will be an up and down fight.

edit:never mind I’m an idiot. Good call Ben

 

[flabellina]

For people that aren’t in a Roth IRA wouldn’t it be better to sell now, pay the taxes while rates are low, then rebuy starting a new basis? This doesn’t even factor in the possible falling price over the next few weeks

You have to do the math and then consider that everything is easy in hindsight.
I pay 26% taxes. If I sell now, where is my break even re entry point? What is the chance that we might never get there? Even if we do, by how much? What is the risk/reward?
It would have been a great idea last year to sell at 350 and buy back all at 177. Easy in hindsight.

 

[StealthP3D]

There is no *analysis* being done of the true impact of any event on a companies *LONG TERM* future. Does anybody out there really think that teslas long term economic value has been reduced permanently by 20% because of a virus at the start of 2020 thats so far killed under 5,000 people?

If it goes into the low to mid $600's, then I would say the market response is surprising. But you can expect a stock that grew this fast to have sharp reactions to things like Coronavirus fears. I don't find the current pricing surprising.

Its not just tesla, the impact on all stocks is insane. Even if you are a widget seller in the US, and 100% of your widgets are made in china, and 100% of your chinese widget suppliers are still closed...then yeah, you might see a Q1 or even 2020 profit dip, but long term?

Much of the market had become pretty frothy and needed a correction. I don't consider Tesla's recent valuation in the $900's to be frothy considering the outsized growth and profit potential they have been displaying. Coronavirus doesn't change that (although it might set it back a month or so). So, yeah, stocks should correct (in general) and this is as good of an excuse as any. I think you will see the relative valuation of Tesla come out stronger because of the Coronavirus.

Here's why: The market had some concerns about demand for Tesla's in China and the Coronavirus has put a spotlight on that. I expect sales and production to recover relatively quickly and be even more robust than expectations BEFORE the Coronavirus disrupted things. Mr. Market will not fail to notice this. Tesla will be less impacted than most companies and the end results will be even stronger than original projections (pre-Coronavirus). This is just a short delay with a strong potential to allow Tesla to impress even more.

China had a disease outbreak that they now seem to have under control. This virus has not wiped out the entire country. This is an awesome buying opportunity for peop-e with dry powder.

I totally agree although since I already have what I consider a full load of Tesla shares going forward, I won't be deploying dry powder on Tesla unless this is more protracted of a correction. There is still a small risk that this will be a deeper correction or that this Coronavirus could morph into something worse but that risk is really tiny. Investors can always find something to be nervous about but if you don't keep the risks in perspective, you will never be a great investor.

 

[gerebgraus]

• Europe: If you order a new Model 3, S or X anywhere in Europe today, the delivery estimates are already out to May - i.e. all incoming inventory on ships has been mostly spoken for in Q1 already.
• China: configurator switched to Q2 delivery back in January already. Tesla was the #1 Chinese EV maker in January both by production (2,625) and by deliveries (3,183 units).
  
• U.S.: delivery time for a new Model 3 is 3-5 weeks. This same metric was 1-2 weeks a year ago.

There's also a lack of price adjustments in the U.S. so far, despite the $1,875 reduction in the federal tax credit in January.

Actually there is plenty of incoming inventory that is not spoken for. And many people ordering today will get their car in March. The pattern is the same as in last quarter when tons of mostly long range and premium new inventory showed up 10-20 days before the end of the quarter. The true fact is that no more vehicles will be manufactured for overseas this quarter. There is more demand than supply, so they cannot guarantee that buyers would have cars in their specs on the ships especially for base models. Tesla will exploit the supply shortage by offering mostly long range and premium cars in the inventory.

 

[UCF3]

You have to do the math and then consider that everything is easy in hindsight.
I pay 26% taxes. If I sell now, where is my break even re entry point? What is the chance that we might never get there? Even if we do, by how much? What is the risk/reward?
It would have been a great idea last year to sell at 350 and buy back all at 177. Easy in hindsight.

I was mostly thinking of the people who have shares at a basis of $200. Who knows what the tax rate will be on capital gains in 5, 10, 15 years from now other than the fact they won’t be lower

 

[UCF3]

PayPal just released a statement that Coronavirus will have a negative impact on their quarter. What are the odds that Tesla ends up having to issue new guidance in the next few weeks?

 

[BenPrice]

I think it gets brought back to $750 to start, then from there it will be an up and down fight.

edit:never mind I’m an idiot. Good call Ben

I dunno looks like we have life!!

Edit... lol imma just stop posting

 

[LJS22]

I keep looking at Ford and how if that company was expanding towards a sustainable future in half the manner Tesla was that they would be a great buy right now (nearly below $7 a share) But that expansion would bankrupt the company, meanwhile Musk and associates timed a $2 billion raise to perfection.

Going to pick up some more shares tomorrow then close my eyes until April and see where we are.

 

[KarenRei]

PayPal just released a statement that Coronavirus will have a negative impact on their quarter. What are the odds that Tesla ends up having to issue new guidance in the next few weeks?

Tesla already issued such guidance.

 

[SageBrush]

Much of the market had become pretty frothy and needed a correction.

Agreed, ... but how big a correction ? I am eyeing early 2019 values but that is barely based on anything rational.

 

[Maitri982]

I have absolutely no fear of the stock falling, my core shares will remain untouched, other than selling the odd call against them.

What I am trying to work out is how to maximise my trading shares to grow my position. I'm wondering if risking selling now, purely in order to re-buy at a lower point, is a good idea.

I agree with the general sentiment that regardless of how inconsequential this virus actually is, the markets are overrun with irrational fear. In the case of $TSLA, the short-sellers are amplifying the losses. Which does present opportunity if one can take it.

Not sure how irrational the fear is. It is now likely based on latest news that the virus will spread uncontrolled within the US. This will lead to some level of city level quarantines ala China and other places. This will impact pretty much every single business, including Tesla.

I am long the stock...very long...but the idea that this is minor event that won't have near term impact is going against the current, substantial evidence.

 

[ZeApelido]

Care bears and weak longs be like

 

[GaryW]

Bought a few at ~$730 at the open.

 

[KSilver2000]

Wonder whether this is true and what it’s all about.
Tesla quietly moved crates, loaded pallets out of South Buffalo factory

 

[KarenRei]

Not sure how irrational the fear is. It is now likely based on latest news that the virus will spread uncontrolled within the US. his will lead to some level of city level quarantines ala China and other places.

By definition, if it's "spreading uncontrolled", you're not quarantining areas.

Right now, the goal is to keep it from spreading uncontrolled, via quarantines. If this fails, then quarantines will be pointless, and this year will have a seasonal flu that's about 10x worse than the "average" seasonal flu (flu severity varies from season to season). Assuming that said breakout occurs before effective treatments are approved (a preexisting drug goes into human trials in a couple weeks), before vaccines are approved (the first one goes into human trials in April, results expected by July/August), artificial evolutionary pressures toward less dramatic presentations (severe causes get detected, mild cases go under the radar), and without hindrance from increasingly bright/warm weather in the northern hemisphere.

And then life will go on.

 

[Beltsbear]

Bought a few at ~$730 at the open.

Me too added at 731 just now. And it’s down more

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

based on latest news that the virus will spread uncontrolled within the US.

Thats some amazing news, predicting the future like that. Thats called speculation, not news. news reports what actually has, or is happening. Show me the 'uncontrolled spread within the US,

 

[KarenRei]

Wonder whether this is true and what it’s all about.
Tesla quietly moved crates, loaded pallets out of South Buffalo factory

 

[GaryW]

Bought a few at ~$717

 

[neezer]

Just bought 1 limit order @ $716.00 price. As a token to the dealers out there. Let's go Oversold, again.