Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Freder Reeve]

My crystal ball says futures look decent. Pre-Markets
Doom is what the banks sell when they want to scare the huddled masses into selling their positions. Not gonna get shook by any noise, will only sell a little bit to cover my cybertruck when its finally time.

 

[davecolene0606]

I have to return to work this Thursday. It will be interesting to see how busy the airport's are. Since I am based in Atlanta it should be easy to gauge how much travel has been restricted.

Wish I had more dry powder as I do love a good sale price. However the "do nothing" side of me is also pretty content.
My crystal ball ( not really all that clear these day's mind you) says by May the Debbie downers among us will be back to dancing a happy dance. And I will be feeling just as I am now...content and happy.

Peace

Was at work past weekend, not record crowds but 85-90% full planes and plenty of folks in the airports (NY and SFL) of course anecdotes, but far from empty that some would have us believe.

The interesting thing to me is that single digit percentage changes in commerce are portrayed as “crashing” “plummeting” and all sorts of other adjectives. To see Gali freakin out shows that generational experience definitely weighs on how one sees things. 2008 is a crystal clear memory to me and this is nothing like it.

In any case let’s see how things look in a month or 2.

Not even thinking about selling.

Fire Away!
(It’s the batteries, Stupid!)

 

[mact3333]

and btw, this is nothing like 2008 when the entire banking and financial system was close to blowing up...if the fed's didn't step in our lives would have changed forever...there were trillions of CDS's at stake and without the Fed bailout of AIG and GS(Buffet) and etc, society as we knew it was going to change....we were a day or two from bank runs(yes including your bank)....and no the FDIC wasn't going to save you.

This is mostly corona virus that popped a mini bubble that wanted to be popped and may lead us to a mild recession but the mkts price in these things within a week or two...by the time avg mom/pop start to panic that's when its time to start buying again.

I am smelling some fear in the streets now, so a bottom is within distance now.

I see no evidence that the long term bull is over...a 20% correction is not that big of a deal...if certain levels on SPX and Naz dont hold soon, we will be in a long term bear and will chop 50% off the top across the board, but I dont favor this will actually happen.

Once we see China/Korea/Italy numbers coming down, stability and sanity will come back and then we are just dealing with a earnings miss this quarter for pretty much everyone.

But certain sub-sectors in oil will not recover and have to go bankrupt soon...watch for that.

 

[KSilver2000]

My crystal ball says the line in the sand is 7300-7500 Nasdaq...the selling won't end until we touch that...

What? That’s just another day or two in the office

 

[mact3333]

My crystal ball says futures look decent. Pre-Markets
Doom is what the banks sell when they want to scare the huddled masses into selling their positions. Not gonna get shook by any noise, will only sell a little bit to cover my cybertruck when its finally time.

lol...buy the open big then,...you will be down big by wed afternoon ...

think you missed my point if you think I am saying to panic and sell...times to sell was 2 weeks ago...too late to sell!...I am saying we are close to a bottom(but not quite yet) so preparing to buy lol.

 

[Todesbuckler]

1 Millionth car
View attachment 520109

Production calculation based on Wikipedia data (not sure if Wikipedia has the correct cumulative production in there):

Q4 total cumulative production was 921,046 according to Wikipedia. This would result to 78,954 produced cars so far in Q1. Well on the way to have a new record production quarter with the ongoing production ramp:

Assuming 9 production weeks so far and 12 in total, we would get even without a further ramp in production: 78,954/9*12= 105,272 for Q1 2020.

Potentially 4,000-10,000 more cars with ongoing MIC3 and Model Y ramp.

Q4 2019 production was 104,891cars.

Is the Wikipedia data correct?

Tesla, Inc. - Wikipedia

 

[S3XY]

Do you have official information that this is a separate event?

My impression is "Company Day" at GF Buffalo includes at least 1 Plaid Model S/X with a new battery pack..

It is my further guess that a "Production Version" Plaid Model S with return to the 'ring in the European Spring/Summer/Autumn and try to set an official lap time.

Followed by production of Plaid Model S/X towards the end of this year..

So for "Company Day" (assuming my assumptions are correct) there is going to be a live video stream and that is how most of us are going to experience it.

Any live crowd may be cut down in size, pre-screened, partitioned, given protective clothing etc...

So if "Company Day" is what I assume it is, there may be reasons why turning it more of a live stream event is better than delaying it.

I think Elon mentioned that there will be tours of GF2 available after the event. Since it's right in town for me I plan on showing up regardless and see what happens. Maybe one of the youtube bloggers will take me as a +1 if I let them review my Model Y.

 

[Artful Dodger]

They canceled the unveiling of their electric car next month too. I'm still not sure why, the article didn't go into concrete details.. Their conviction must not be that strong.

Cadillac cancels debut of electric model in a blow for GM’s Barra

 

[Carl Raymond]

1 Millionth car
View attachment 520109

So 98,000 produced this quarter thus far.

Twitter

Edit: oops, that axis label says “deliveries”.

Twitter

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon Musk 33m ago

"Congratulations Tesla team on making our 1,000,000th car!!"​

"Tents are underappreciated" - Artful Dodger, Mon Mar 9, 2020

So 98,000 produced this quarter thus far.

Then with 22 days left in Q1 (with no Stat Holidays), that's plus these numbers:

• 22,000 Model 3 - Fremont
• 4,000 Model S/X - Fremont
• 2,000 Model Y - Fremont
  
• 6,000 Model 3 - Shanghai

That's 34K more cars* for a total of 132K cars produced in 2020Q1. That's already an annualized production rate of ~525K/yr.

Cheers!

*(but potentially higher. as Shanghai could finish March @ 3.5K/wk and Fremont likely is at 1K/wk Model Y already).

 

[UnknownSoldier]

It's an amazing accomplishment, the first American car company since Ford to not go bankrupt has now produced it's millionth car. The SP is down because of c*********s (I know we're not to speak of That Which Must Not Be Named in this thread) but I doubt TSLAQ is celebrating since bankruptcy is more remote than it has ever been.

 

[Cirrus MS100D]

Cadillac cancels debut of electric model in a blow for GM’s Barra

Why build electric when gas is going to be free?

 

[Todesbuckler]

So 98,000 produced this quarter thus far.

Twitter

This seems to be calculated based on delivered cars while Elon's post looks like 1.000.000 production ("making").

 

[SMAlset]

It's an amazing accomplishment, the first American car company since Ford to not go bankrupt has now produced it's millionth car. The SP is down because of c*********s (I know we're not to speak of That Which Must Not Be Named in this thread) but I doubt TSLAQ is celebrating since bankruptcy is more remote than it has ever been.

and best yet, it’s a BEV no less!!

 

[30seconds]

At this point I’m expecting macros to continue to head south until the US puts lockdown / travel restrictions into place. These seemed to have worked in Asia and we will see within the next month or so how they work in Italy.

Unfortunately until the US does this the virus will be spreading within the country making the impact much larger and delaying any recovery on the back end.

On the plus side the timing of the Model Y seems to be very beneficial. It’s unlikely that production could rise to meet demand within the next few months so this will be a strong positive within an otherwise disastrous US auto market in Q2.

Once the US implements serious containment and we see the broader market stabilize I plan to buy LEAPs.

But will be patient until then

 

[Artful Dodger]

Obviously there must be larger institutions of some sort unloading naked short-selling with the "Uptick Rule" in effect for the SP to have gone down this much

FTFY.

 

[wipster]

<snip>
Once the US implements serious containment and we see the broader market stabilize I plan to buy LEAPs.
<snip>

And BOUNDS too?

 

[wipster]

Things are looking up (at least in China):
China’s Xi Visits Wuhan, City at Center of Coronavirus Epidemic China’s Xi Visits Wuhan, City at Center of Coronavirus Epidemic

 

[StealthP3D]

Cadillac cancels debut of electric model in a blow for GM’s Barra

That was the environmentally friendly thing to do. Because it avoids GM sending them all to the crusher in only 3-5 years as they have a history of doing.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I just wonder if TSLA will reverse this decline and start rising again, regardless of the freefalling status of macros, once Y starts shipping and we find out Q1 is going to be a profit. Trying to catch the falling knife is very very dangerous here though because the macro headwinds are more like a Category 19 hurricane, so I'm not sure I'm willing to chance calls right now. I might add more shares though as we get closer to Y official deliveries to customers.