ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Please let's talk about financials and all stuff impacting financials here to keep an edge on the markets.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Sadly, I have to agree with this.
What I've seen this morning does not look like any market bottom I've seen before. I wish it were not so.
I check cases and deaths first thing in the morning, 5:40 AM, no exception. Nothing you say I don't already know.
There's a Coronavirus thread.
I ask again: what do you want us to do? Please don't say read.
mact3333
Member
Just know we haven't bottomed yet but getting close ...mkt's don't bottom with big after hour gap ups...moves like right now after mkt close is to entice suckers to go long in the morning before selling resumes...mkts truly reverse with huge intraday hammer candles...see you at 7300-7500 Naz!......literally jmho of course so for amusement purposes only.
The true bottom will be a hammer shaped candle...big gap down at open followed by more selling, then a huge intraday swing and rally....
Can you expand on what you saw this morning? Thanks.
For the first time in many years without holding any Tesla stocks. Hoping for a re entry bellow 500.
Also made some money shorting Tesla, even though it feels just wrong
Also made some money shorting Tesla, even though it feels just wrong
NOTE:
There have been some misguided posts in recent days asserting that this is a "trading" thread or a "short-term" thread or whatnot.
This very adamantly is not the case. Those who do jump in and out of Tesla; those who do play with derivative instruments in the belief that they can act both more swiftly than the market and that they have better access to knowledge of market order flows than do Wall St pros also are welcome here....
but those who claim this thread is not for the serious long-term investor get very, very little respect indeed.
There have been some misguided posts in recent days asserting that this is a "trading" thread or a "short-term" thread or whatnot.
This very adamantly is not the case. Those who do jump in and out of Tesla; those who do play with derivative instruments in the belief that they can act both more swiftly than the market and that they have better access to knowledge of market order flows than do Wall St pros also are welcome here....
but those who claim this thread is not for the serious long-term investor get very, very little respect indeed.
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Selling TSLA is a bit risky in my mind.. I've been def playing the downside, but not by liquidating any TSLA positions, including LEAPS... SPY puts have been my friend.
I would recommend buying SPY puts in lieu of liquidating TSLA.... but just my two cents.
I would recommend buying SPY puts in lieu of liquidating TSLA.... but just my two cents.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Rob Mauer said 107k for Q1 production based on linear extrapolation, with the potential for up to 113k if both GF3 Model 3 and Fremont Model Y ramp improve over linear.
Cheers!
Or puts in other parts of the auto sector, if one wants that play.
Or a volatility play. I have a very low-risk one going on, but one could do a shorter-term very-OTM straddle if they want a more dramatic benefit.
I agree that going negative on TSLA specifically is a dangerous move, since the company's fundamentals are strong, and the market seems to not realize at this point how strong they are. There could be an EOQ "email to employees" from Elon that leaks premarket which mentions a high delivery number, and the stock would gap up.
Same. The bug that can not be named might go away very quickly, and then Wall Street will start looking at the news it has ignored for the past month or so. TSLA could pop up big time and I'm afraid of missing that.
I had a buy set for $608 that didn’t go off...grrrr....
I'm afraid of shorting auto because of bailout risk. I don't know if that's rational or not, but I'm staying away.
My numbers have always been closer to 120k, for this entire quarter. With this latest news, they continue to be.
For me the only sticking points are that I really don't have a good grasp on either Model Y production, or whether (and if so, how much) Model 3 production has declined due to the needs of Model Y production. Re the latter, the problem is I'm not entirely clear on what parts of Fremont are being used for what at this point, and how much capacity has been increased on anything doing dual-duty. But relative to your baseline numbers, I'm pretty confident that your S/X and GF3 numbers are too low. I could be wrong of course, but...
Still hasn't made the roller coaster at GF1
It was supposed to be in Fremont. I think it would be great for tours of the factory.
Today I have reached my target of 2,000 Tesla shares!
I bought roughly 1,500 at an average price of $300 and the other 500 I have bought all the way up to $900 and then all the way back down again to $600 at an average price of $500.
I am stopping at 2,000 and holding long term. This is a good amount for the two following reasons:
1. My bank says they will give me a loan at 1% interest on 80% of the value of the TSLA shares to buy a house if I wish. Even at current prices, this gives me an "almost free" $1m loan to do so and is cheaper than getting a mortgage
2. The main reason. I expect TSLA to be at least $3,000 in 5 years time. $6m allows me to live well. If it gets to $10,000 then $20m will be great. If it gets to Cathie's $22,000 then $44m will give me a little security in later life
It's been an incredible ride, but now I am done!
I bought roughly 1,500 at an average price of $300 and the other 500 I have bought all the way up to $900 and then all the way back down again to $600 at an average price of $500.
I am stopping at 2,000 and holding long term. This is a good amount for the two following reasons:
1. My bank says they will give me a loan at 1% interest on 80% of the value of the TSLA shares to buy a house if I wish. Even at current prices, this gives me an "almost free" $1m loan to do so and is cheaper than getting a mortgage
2. The main reason. I expect TSLA to be at least $3,000 in 5 years time. $6m allows me to live well. If it gets to $10,000 then $20m will be great. If it gets to Cathie's $22,000 then $44m will give me a little security in later life
It's been an incredible ride, but now I am done!
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
@StealthP3D -- maybe I'm wrong, but that is what happened when it ducked <$200. Sure, past performance, and all that, but I still put some weight to the observed behavior of increased shares shorted when the stock price is low.
To be specific: the most shares shorted in the last 15 months or so was May 31st which also closed at $185.16. Sure, given the lack of transparency it is possible that the most shares shorted occured at a different price, but it isn't likely to be that much different. As the stock price rose the shares shorted didn't drop all that much for a while and most of the net covering was at substantially higher prices.
While I won't deny that some individual shorts make out like bandits, in aggregate they sell (short) low and buy (to cover) high.
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