Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Today I have reached my target of 2,000 Tesla shares!

I bought roughly 1,500 at an average price of $300 and the other 500 I have bought all the way up to $900 and then all the way back down again to $600 at an average price of $500.

I am stopping at 2,000 and holding long term. This is a good amount for the two following reasons:
1. My bank says they will give me a loan at 1% interest on 80% of the value of the TSLA shares to buy a house if I wish. Even at current prices, this gives me an "almost free" $1m loan to do so and is cheaper than getting a mortgage
2. The main reason. I expect TSLA to be at least $3,000 in 5 years time. $6m allows me to live well. If it gets to $10,000 then $20m will be great. If it gets to Cathie's $22,000 then $44m will give me a little security in later life

It's been an incredible ride, but now I am done!

Wow, that's awesome.

 

[JusRelax]

Today I have reached my target of 2,000 Tesla shares!

I bought roughly 1,500 at an average price of $300 and the other 500 I have bought all the way up to $900 and then all the way back down again to $600 at an average price of $500.

I am stopping at 2,000 and holding long term. This is a good amount for the two following reasons:
1. My bank says they will give me a loan at 1% interest on 80% of the value of the TSLA shares to buy a house if I wish. Even at current prices, this gives me an "almost free" $1m loan to do so and is cheaper than getting a mortgage
2. The main reason. I expect TSLA to be at least $3,000 in 5 years time. $6m allows me to live well. If it gets to $10,000 then $20m will be great. If it gets to Cathie's $22,000 then $44m will give me a little security in later life

It's been an incredible ride, but now I am done!

Which bank are you using? And did they offer that loan to you or did you have to request it? 1% is incredible, so I'm wondering if it would be possible to get rid of my mortgage, which I already thought was low at 3.25%!

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I would not short tsla right now, regardless what happens. We are just one sudden tweet from an 'influencer' or one youtube video away from the first happy model Y owners, and the mass of wall st lemmings might catch up on the news, realize GF3 is going just FINE despite the virus, that the model Y is AHEAD of schedule, that GF4 is on the way, and that tesla just sold a million vehicles.... combine all that and we could have a very sudden gap up.
Could be in 5 minutes, 5 days or 5 weeks. i dont want to be sat here without TSLA stock by the barrel-load when it happens.

 

[dmvevguy]

Which bank are you using? And did they offer that loan to you or did you have to request it? 1% is incredible, so I'm wondering if it would be possible to get rid of my mortgage, which I already thought was low at 3.25%!

Dang I have well over 2000 shares and didn't realize bank offers loan on your holdings! I will have ot do this and use that 1% loan to pay off my mortgage at 3% as well!

 

[1101011]

...1% is incredible, so I'm wondering if it would be possible to get rid of my mortgage, which I already thought was low at 3.25%!

What's a mortgage? /s

 

[vikings123]

Maybe somebody can help me with something I have been trying to figure out.

I've been tracking existing inventory for my local market(Minneapolis). As of now I see 12 model 3s, 10 Model Ss and 4 Model Xs. I also looked at some other markets(NJ/NY area) and see decent model 3 inventory there too. When you try to do a custom model 3 order on the website the expected delivery time is however 2-3 weeks. Three questions:

1. Why wouldn't Tesla try to match someone with an inventory car during the order placing process? Or maybe they do that after the order is placed but you would potentially get more buyers if you added this feature online.
2. I can understand the inventory for the S and X but definitely wondering if the demand for the model 3 is a problem this quarter?
3. Is there a website that tracks existing inventory trends for Tesla?

 

[Tslynk67]

Looks like that dead cat is trying to climb up the curtains again...

I too think this is a false dawn, at this moment in time, and expect lower prices later this week. Of course it can all chance very quickly. I have a sell order set.

Will be interesting to see what transpires if the markets stay low, but Tesla come with a beat on deliveries, then financials, then S&P inclusion, etc., the rebound could be very violent indeed.

 

[StealthP3D]

Can you expand on what you saw this morning? Thanks.

Market bottoms I'm familiar with have sharper drops going in and quicker, more solid recoveries. Think of it this way: Not many people get to buy at the absolute lows. And only the most fearful are caught selling there.

edit: I should add that individual stocks can bottom at any time because they are subject to company-specific news. This is potentially very much in play for TSLA, a company that seems to be bucking the Coronavirus trend (if not in share price, in execution). Good news can cause TSLA to rise while perhaps the rest of the market doesn't bottom until days or even weeks later.

edit 2: I should add, this a great a place to take a position in TSLA because there is no guarantee it will ever be lower. You don't want to be left out of the game while quibbling over a few dollars/share!

 

[jkirkwood001]

Think Tesla's stock is getting hit hard? The other manufacturers are getting hit too.

I keep being amazed at how much of a free-fall Daimler is in - down 2½ times what they were worth in 2017 (2nd bar in series), or -33% per year. And TSLA is still up 3½ times what they were worth last year.

 

[jhm]

The share price seems nicely resistant to dropping below $600. I'm still waiting for market geniuses to short it down to $420, so I can buy more.

 

[StealthP3D]

Maybe somebody can help me with something I have been trying to figure out.

I've been tracking existing inventory for my local market(Minneapolis). As of now I see 12 model 3s, 10 Model Ss and 4 Model Xs. I also looked at some other markets(NJ/NY area) and see decent model 3 inventory there too. When you try to do a custom model 3 order on the website the expected delivery time is however 2-3 weeks. Three questions:

1. Why wouldn't Tesla try to match someone with an inventory car during the order placing process? Or maybe they do that after the order is placed but you would potentially get more buyers if you added this feature online.
2. I can understand the inventory for the S and X but definitely wondering if the demand for the model 3 is a problem this quarter?
3. Is there a website that tracks existing inventory trends for Tesla?

I believe Tesla's goal is to have so little inventory it would be of very limited benefit (not worth it) to try to match on-line orders with inventory in real-time. The inventory is small and in a constant state of flux. Someone could be preparing to sign papers to buy an inventory car at a Delivery Center while someone else is going through the order process on-line.

 

[Artful Dodger]

But relative to your baseline numbers, I'm pretty confident that your S/X and GF3 numbers are too low.

Yeah could be, I chose very conservative assumptions:

• Model S/X - no change in prod. rate; just # of prod. days in Q1
• GF3/Model 3 - assume Elon's 'million' included Q-2-date, plus 2K/wk

So GF3 prod numbers will come down to when they start the 2nd shift. But even if it's 4 wks x 1.5K extra for March, that's only +6K which I don't think gets us to 120K for Q1.

Some addtional unknowns:

• which actual day Tesla reached 1M total
• are the 2.5K original Roadsters included
• did Fremont / Model 3 have any shutdown days for Model Y

So, I think 113K, +/- 6K is a good estimate. Certainly better than the 80k knumb knuts at Jolly Joker's is predicting.

But Wall St. wants its Bad Quarter w. Cheese™ I think the shortzes are actually counting on the virus/oil/recession to make them some cash, and care about little else. How embearassing.

Cheers!

 

[avoigt]

SP action feels a litte weak.
Could be a dead cat bounce.
Holding my core shares.
Producing vehicle 1 Mio and first deliivery of a Model Y are positives, no doubt, but macros don't seem to getting better right now.
They are shutting down Italy this can not be a good.
No panic here, just an observation.

Italy is not shut down despite what the media reports. It's just a couple of restrictions and recommendations in place. People are not forced to stay at home at all and they don't. Giving you an example, everybody can go, travel or drive freely everywhere. The word 'lock down' is unfortunately not a good description and supports rather a panic than the reality. Thats why the media likes it as its an expression everybody will put attention to.

On top its good that Italy enforced this measures and not bad because now they have at least the ability to control the virus spread better and we know from China that its an effective measure. So, despite I am surprised and its concerning that Italy was not able to control now they have better chances which is a positive.

Concerning the dead cat bounce we have seen some resistance at $606 - 610 quite successfully tested 3 times which may develop into a support but since all the selling yesterday has been mainly driven by the feeling not to know what the future brings versus selling because stocks have been considered overbought or a recession will happen due to long term low, oil wars or similar we have seen quite some changes in emotions and with it continuous swings of the stock market. Volatility will remain.

If you are a long term investor all of that should not bother you though as Tesla is very well positioned and will go up again sooner or later regardless if a further step down is happening or not.

 

[cricketman]

Which bank are you using? And did they offer that loan to you or did you have to request it? 1% is incredible, so I'm wondering if it would be possible to get rid of my mortgage, which I already thought was low at 3.25%!

I am in Spain and recently I was invited to the Private Bank side of Banco Santander. They say they do this all the time, and in the form of a credit line up to 80% of the value of share holdings.

I have to caveat that the advisor I spoke to told me that the interest rate would be 1%, but I don't have any actual proof yet! I will report back once I have the amounts confirmed. I am waiting for an appointment to talk about this, but the team is based in Madrid that is in coronavirus lock-down

Anyway, worth you guys with mortgages and large share holders to investigate with your banks. For example, this how many of the billionaires (including Elon) finance their personal affairs

 

[KarenRei]

Maybe somebody can help me with something I have been trying to figure out.

I've been tracking existing inventory for my local market(Minneapolis). As of now I see 12 model 3s, 10 Model Ss and 4 Model Xs. I also looked at some other markets(NJ/NY area) and see decent model 3 inventory there too. When you try to do a custom model 3 order on the website the expected delivery time is however 2-3 weeks.

When you do a custom order, if they can match you with an new inventory car in your area - or elsewhere, where the shipping cost is worth it to Tesla - they'll indeed give you that inventory car. Always check inventory first before placing a custom order, as you might get a better deal.

They however shut down new custom configs for the quarter when they can no longer guarantee all possible configs. You still might be able to get your chosen car in inventory, however; it depends on what they might have in excess, what they might be able to ship in, what owners may have cancelled, etc.

 

[adiggs]

...

Tesla daily just had a nice breakdown based on the 1 millionth car being produced. IIRC the math works out a conservative 110k production level for Q1.

I think you meant 80,110?

 

[StealthP3D]

@StealthP3D -- maybe I'm wrong, but that is what happened when it ducked <$200. Sure, past performance, and all that, but I still put some weight to the observed behavior of increased shares shorted when the stock price is low.

I agree that shorts have a history of selling low and buying high. But this is a vastly different time than the dip in 2019. Where we differ is in where that low point will be. It's my contention that TSLA will not go under $400 and even under $500 would be extremely unlikely. It could happen with a perfect Coronavirus storm but that's not what I'm seeing as likely.

Predicting the future is a very sketchy endeavor but I'm out on a limb guessing the bottom is around $575-$585 (assuming this Coronavirus scare has one more major leg down, which looks somewhat likely to me at this point). I think at that point buyers will outnumber sellers, Coronavirus and all.

 

[KarenRei]

Italy is not shut down despite what the media reports. It's just a couple of restrictions and recommendations in place. People are not forced to stay at home at all and they don't. Giving you an example, everybody can go, travel or drive freely everywhere. The word 'lock down' is unfortunately not a good description and supports rather a panic than the reality. Thats why the media likes it as its an expression everybody will put attention to.

What I'd love to see announced - and which could indeed be announced at any point - is an emergency meeting of the G20 or G7+China with the goal of establishing a unified global response to simultaneously hinder the spread and impacts of the disease while minimizing economic disruption (with repeated emphasis on the latter). Making it clear that the plan is things like regulations on sanitation at businesses and schools, no large gatherings in heavily affected areas, only targeted use of quarantines, etc - and not "everybody stays home for 2020, last one out of the global economy shuts off the lights".

The market has not been impressed with traditional stimulus measures, facing up against the uncertainty of the impacts of the disease. It wants to see global leadership making clear that the global economy will continue largely as normal.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Today I have reached my target of 2,000 Tesla shares!

I bought roughly 1,500 at an average price of $300 and the other 500 I have bought all the way up to $900 and then all the way back down again to $600 at an average price of $500.

I am stopping at 2,000 and holding long term. This is a good amount for the two following reasons:
1. My bank says they will give me a loan at 1% interest on 80% of the value of the TSLA shares to buy a house if I wish. Even at current prices, this gives me an "almost free" $1m loan to do so and is cheaper than getting a mortgage
2. The main reason. I expect TSLA to be at least $3,000 in 5 years time. $6m allows me to live well. If it gets to $10,000 then $20m will be great. If it gets to Cathie's $22,000 then $44m will give me a little security in later life

It's been an incredible ride, but now I am done!

What bank is that? That sounds too good to be true, there must be a catch...

Also, if it is not a mortgage, do you have to make minimum payments? Or just pay the interest?

 

[dl003]

What bank is that? That sounds too good to be true, there must be a catch...

Also, if it is not a mortgage, do you have to make minimum payments? Or just pay the interest?

Well interest rate has been zero to negative in Europe so I'm not surprised at all.