Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[capster]

So I understand everyone has their own risk tolerance level. I am a long and a bull, accumulating since 2013 and so I am still very happy with my returns. I have also burned myself a few times trying to time the market, so I was on a buy and hold strategy.

However... I am actually thinking about selling today with this slight green shade and going all cash for a while.

I am conflicted of course. There are few short term positives for Tesla right now, like Model Y deliveries, a possibly OK to good Q1 (better than what the Street expects) even with Corona impact and then later possibly announcing new batteries once again leapfrogging the industry by half a decade or more. But, this health crisis and the stock market crash will still probably get worse before it gets better. (Some people I respect on this forum, as well as the likes of Tesla analysts like Rob Maurer and investor Chamath Palihapitiya seem to be of this opinion too).

Even as we go into a recovery phase from the virus, the impact on the economy may be lasting, possibly impacting Q2 and beyond for Tesla. Additionally, there could production shutdowns due to health concerns or supply chain disruptions, not mentioning any unexpected shocks like Elon or world leaders getting sick. Not that I don't expect them to recover, the psychological effect would be huge though.

Long story short, while I fully believe the company and even the stock will go back to growth once the dust settles, I think the next few months are super uncertain.

I know most of us are in the buy and hold camp here, but these are not normal times. So I'd like to hear some thoughts for a reality check here. Am I being rational in light of current events, or did I let the fear of this pandemic get to me?

I’ve found that I just cannot predict the near or even mid- term behavior of TSLA. I often make myself guess — green or red — before I look at it and almost invariably reinforce the notion "no idea."

On the other hand, the trajectory of Tesla is, to me, relatively obvious (up, up, and away with speed bumps here and there — to mix metaphors ).

So, I just stick to my strategy of buy and never sell. I figure if I go down the path of getting out and then trying to get back in, I will become trigger happy and ultimately be worse off both financially and from stressing over whether every cloud on the horizon indicates a storm.

As for options, I don’t want to go there either.

Do I think we are in for a bumpy ride wrt to the virus and its economic consequences? Yes. Does that mean I think I can predict how the market will treat TSLA? No.

Just knowing that I’m not going to do anything with my TSLA takes it off my mind, so I can fret about other things.

 

[VValleyEV]

Bought small amount at $520.

If it wanders back up will thank the FUD

If stays down or goes lower in next few weeks will buy more.

I really have plenty for my portfolio, just can’t resist a fire sale and want to do my small part to support this stock.

 

[Drax7]

Any workers too weak to survive the Coronavirus were probably a drag on Tesla in the first place. The weak ones got a little money, partied too hard and became sickly, and stopped being able to make anything good, and are now ripe pickings for a takeout flu. The idea Coronavirus will hurt Tesla’s factory workers long term is absurd. The dead ones won’t be zombies running the machines backwards — that’s scifi! Tesla will just hire recovered healthy people immune to the flu like always. The planet has lots of people on it. Lots will survive!!

Even if you think it, it’s outright stupid to say it

 

[KSilver2000]

Everyday is a buying opportunity

 

[Prunesquallor]

I think the timing of Trump's announcement is interesting, just before markets close on Friday.
I would take this as bullish, like declaring 'national emergency' which would allow releasing massive funds (US friends, is this the case, right? - like EU comments this morning).

You called it.

 

[gtrplyr1]

Does anyone know if there are any Model Y's in any Tesla stores? (Specifically in Southern CA) I would LOVE to go see one up close!


I'm sure I'll start seeing them in traffic soon but it's not quite the same.... and asking a perfect stranger if they wouldn't mind if you sit in their car often elicits a strange response : )

 

[Fobble]

OT but I've possibly been exposed myself. A guy in our building has a family member who has it (he isn't sick but that doesn't mean anything). Will be my last day in office for the near term.

Hope it's negative on you. To be safe, please quarantine yourself, and don't come close to the forum

 

[Unpilot]

Trump to declare a national emergency in response to coronavirus

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/13/coronavirus-latest-news/

“The declaration would allow the administration to utilize the Stafford Act, the federal law that gives FEMA responsibility for coordinating disaster relief efforts, to provide emergency funding to state and local governments. President Trump plans to declare the national emergency this afternoon during a 3 p.m. news conference, according to a senior administration official.”

And his support's will square that circle with his previous comments.....somehow.

 

[vikings123]

Another masterpiece lol

View attachment 521271

I thought this did not make any sense but I looked at that strike for March 27 2020 and I see a low of 0.20 and a high of 1,75 for today, this market has officially gone crazy.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I think this is the deep story playing out. Coronavirus is revealing just how fragile demand for oil and gas are. An awful lot of wealth in the world is derived directly from fossil fuels (e.g. refining) or indirectly from its use (e.g. auto financing). The decline in fossil wealth will create a substantial restructuring of the global economy and geopolitical realities. For the most part, the market has been in denial about the end of the fossil age. The markets have traded on fantasies of BAU. But coronavirus reveals just how much the whole economy depends on dependable growth in demand for oil. It reveals our apocalyptic fears. It reveals just how deeply we cling to denial as a coping mechanism. If we are in this much denial about a virus, how much more pernicious is our collective denial of climate change? The economic and political order much change, must become more adaptable, but wealth and power are but manifestations of BAU. The market does not yet know how to make money in a post-carbon economy, and so it will pull money out of stocks and bonds until it has a clue.

Tesla is a clue.

Yeah, the only reason I'm not writing/discussing all this feverishly online is the hope of a snap recovery where oil majors recover to pre-corona level where I can short.

The writing is on the wall. We can discuss in April.

 

[KSilver2000]

Any workers too weak to survive the Coronavirus were probably a drag on Tesla in the first place. The weak ones got a little money, partied too hard and became sickly, and stopped being able to make anything good, and are now ripe pickings for a takeout flu. The idea Coronavirus will hurt Tesla’s factory workers long term is absurd. The dead ones won’t be zombies running the machines backwards — that’s scifi! Tesla will just hire recovered healthy people immune to the flu like always. The planet has lots of people on it. Lots will survive!!

Hopefully, you don’t end up like Rudy Gobert

 

[M|S|W]

Like how TSLA is "following" the market. We should be up 10%....

 

[GregRF]

Warning: Speculative rumor

I've heard that the governor of California may close all the public schools state wide. Might affect production and market sentiment. Our county (Santa Cruz) already announced closure for next week.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Donald J. Trump on Twitter
"I will be having a news conference today at 3:00 P.M., The White House. Topic: CoronaVirus!"
Sell your stocks. Right now!
Advice!

Posts like this need a new feedback choice added. Pained Funny.

 

[gtrplyr1]

Warning: Speculative rumor

I've heard that the governor of California may close all the public schools state wide. Might affect production and market sentiment. Our county (Santa Cruz) already announced closure for next week.

It's going to happen .... every district around here in Southern CA is either discussing or already announced it. I think it's baked in at this point.

 

[gerebgraus]

when the article starts with misrepresentation (I quoted it) I don't usually bother with the rest. Are you part of the lawsuit suing Musk? Is any member of TMC who holds shares a party to the lawsuit? How about Cathy Woods? Or any other large shareholder?

No. I was being nice about it, but that is lying. I'm not interested in what other fabrications, misrepresentations and spin the author can concoct. What you indicate is simply common knowledge about jury trials. It was much bandied about with the pedo trial. And, yet, it didn't work out for the anti-Musk faction.

The reality is that, in the case of Solar City, everyone else settled to rid themselves of it. Musk isn't settling and I applaud him for that. I had a close brush with a nuisance suit (timing wise it was close-ish to my being named on it, I feel lucky) that my employer eventually settled to make it go away. The nuisance immediately violated the terms of the settlement, but due to ineptness and naivete on the part of some people was able to get away with it. That's right: they got the money and continued with lying defamation.

Some bugs are worth squashing.

Yes. Kathy Wood and all of us who have been shareholders at the time are part of it and are represented by the lead plaintiff. In case there the lead plaintiff wins some deal we will be offered to exclude ourselves from the result.
This is the perversion of shareholder class action suits. They tend to be harmful to the shareholders whom it supposedly represent although sometimes when it is against office holders the action can be good. Not this time.

 

[gerebgraus]

GOP doesn't hold the house, they control the Senate. Unless this headline is wrong, its a non-issue what House GOP representatives want.

Exactly because they hold the Senate it is an issue what the GOP wants. Both Pelosi and Mnuchin want a deal fast and not just posturing. so the House wants to vote on a bill that will pass in the Senate. Cheers.

 

[carterm2]

What happens to the stock market in a national emergency? Does it close?

 

[EcoBruin]

And yes, i'm very surprised seeing some few longs of the forum selling...

Don’t think a few longs selling should be any concern. Almost all of them are waiting on the sidelines to immediately jump back in. I doubt any of them have lost faith in the direction of the company and its growth/vision.

 

[JusRelax]

I'm still baffled at how TSLA can lag the indices by almost 10% on the same day that they release a new model vehicle almost 9 MONTHS ahead of schedule. Market never ceases to amaze me.