Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Stormy24]

Do any of you think level 3 breaker will be hit Monday to stop trading ? Does that stop after hours too? Thanks

 

[gerebgraus]

I will be more modest and only ask if it will be an even or odd number of times.

Odd question.

 

[StealthP3D]

I was at the doctors office getting my yearly physical when someone made a speech and the market went up.
Looking at my phone at 415 EST I realized I had made a pretty penny.

I had 40 AAPL calls that I paid a few pennies for that expired friday (270). Closed at 278.
Thought they were going to expire worthless.

Called broker at 415.
Was informed that Monday morning I would have 40,000 shares sitting in my account and I could then sell them on monday. Or I could let my calls expire and forfeit the gain..
Did not want to hold 1 million in Apple over the weekend. Not with the markets acting like this.

Asked if there was any other alternative.
After 45 minutes on hold I got the good news they would exercise the call and (just this once) allow me to sell in after hours trading.
Sold at 276.

Many, many times I've had a large number of calls (Normally Tesla) that could have done the same thing.

Are there any US brokers where I can set it to sell at closing ?

40 AAPL calls would translate to 4,000 AAPL shares, not 40,000!

Congrats on the trade!

 

[dw4ngg]

Do any of you think level 3 breaker will be hit Monday to stop trading ? Does that stop after hours too? Thanks

Do we think the market will tank 20% tmrw? Is that what you’re asking?

No.

 

[Mich]

Do we think the market will tank 20% tmrw? Is that what you’re asking?

No.

I have no glue but looking at the daily graph of the marktet it still looks like it is in a free fall. The Trump speech is like fake news from the PotUS itself which will just speed things up. I would not be surprised if the market is up for new lows tomorrow. US is facing the same as Europe but just worse as Trump still handle it like a hoax.
Also I don't see a reason to bottom out before the US society face the virus and it's consequenses. The marktet needs to know how bad it will be before it can rise again.

Disclaimer: I'm long TSLA and short SPY - so I had a really really bad Friday :-(

 

[adiggs]

Disclaimer: I'm long TSLA and short SPY - so I had a really really bad Friday :-(

I'm in the same boat. And I'm sort of expecting a dead cat bounce on Monday - might be a good opportunity to get more short on SPY.

I'm hoping that the short SPY fails spectacularly in the end and I lose all of it.

I'm also afraid it's going to make a lot of money.

 

[jhm]

I think the best thing for most of us to do is to get some rest. A little extra sleep can clear the mind and strengthen the immune system.

What's not healthy is to stew too much about the stock market. The real value of your stock is claim on earning on the underlying company. This continues to be the case no matter what freaked out price the market happens to put on it in the long run.

This is not the end of the world. The economy will recover from pandemic and investor confidence will return. Those who buy while the market is frightened will be richly rewarded.

So get your rest. Be calm and clear-headed.

 

[dw4ngg]

I'm in the same boat. And I'm sort of expecting a dead cat bounce on Monday - might be a good opportunity to get more short on SPY.

I'm hoping that the short SPY fails spectacularly in the end and I lose all of it.

I'm also afraid it's going to make a lot of money.

I’ll be adding to my SPY June puts collection as well this wk (or maybe GM and UAL puts). Def will be getting out of my calls from Friday.
Also thinking about deleveraging my LEAPs into shares if there’s a bounce. Or just lowering the strikes.

 

[ktrivedi70]

So where does TSLAQ think Tesla is parking all of those solar roofs?

They should hide them on top of people’s houses. No one will ever think to look there.

 

[DrMazeppa]

Just trying to offer some positive thought (if possible at all!), next week is going to see G7 talks (on Monday, including actions on health and economy), and probably significant intervention from banks of Japan, Swiss National Bank, FED (on Wednesday) and perhaps ECB. So there will be massive volatility, but all the efforts will be there to avoid some key levels to be broken. Granted, there is still to go down, but there may be a bit of support.
Of course, this may not help TSLA....we have seen last Friday, and there is a worrying number of puts at 400....

I know this is usually more about trading than investing (forgive me MODs!), but I think these crucial weeks need a little bit more discussion around macros.

 

[Buckminster]

So UK is looking at advising senior citizens to self isolate for 4 months in the next few weeks. House viewings are down 50% in the UK. Anyone think that BMW will have 50% fewer orders over the next 4 months? Who is gonna want to spend 2 hours opposite a salesman specifying a car during a pandemic? Ordering a Tesla on-line - yet another moat.

 

[Fobble]

So UK is looking at advising senior citizens to self isolate for 4 months in the next few weeks.

What compression algorithm is used?

 

[Fobble]

Not sure if this is going to help or hurt the market tomorrow.
Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero and launches massive $700 billion quantitative easing program

 

[pz1975]

If there is a bounce Monday, I fully expect it to be short-lived and the market ends up deep red. I already have a lot of SPY puts but will add a lot more on a bounce tomorrow morning. Still holding my TSLA but very tempted to sell some/all. Sorry if that makes me a weak long, but I just can't see things getting better before they get worse.

 

[dw4ngg]

Not sure if this is going to help or hurt the market tomorrow.
Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero and launches massive $700 billion quantitative easing program

Huge cut, should be huge short term boon

 

[LJS22]

So UK is looking at advising senior citizens to self isolate for 4 months in the next few weeks. House viewings are down 50% in the UK. Anyone think that BMW will have 50% fewer orders over the next 4 months? Who is gonna want to spend 2 hours opposite a salesman specifying a car during a pandemic? Ordering a Tesla on-line - yet another moat.

The European auto makers are looking at A bigger loss than 50%.

Idk if anyone could have foreseen this reaction, but it begs the question of how far into the future is Musk’s mind. People have begged him to work on green public transportation versus personal cars. And yet here we are avoiding large crowds, taking refuge in our personal space. He’s spoken numerous times on UBI and AI. People laughed and said people will always need jobs. And yet here we are telling people not to work, and thinking this economy can hold up.
*Cybertruck is another look into a future of a isolated society.

I am confident things return to normal for us. But it could be a glimpse into a future to bulletproof the collapse we’ve seen on a global scale the last few weeks.

Hopefully April brings about good times for TSLA! March doesn’t appear to be getting better.

 

[anthonyj]

Do any of you think level 3 breaker will be hit Monday to stop trading ? Does that stop after hours too? Thanks

Yeah to the upside. Shorts are done

 

[MABMAB]

Rate cut could only be stop gap measure for a horrible situation, not tradeable.

 

[Maitri982]

Yes to most of this... Except I have near zero hope in GILD based on latest results. On the positive side, Google on Ian Lipkin who may have found the solution using antibodies derived from cured patients. Watch for more on that front.

We are at fourth-fifth inning of this... Several people here saw it and got lots of disagrees. They were right. All the people quoting death rate numbers were missing the boat completely, including Musk. Its hospitalization rates that matters right now, which given constraints on resources will increase the quoted death rates.

Tesla will be impacted, but I see this as opportunity for them to gain more ground. Thank God for capital raise.

I truly feel that society as we know it will change from here....sounds alarmist and extreme, but dont mean it that way...the way we think about epidemiology, social justice, pensions, leverage, supply chains.

1. 2 months ago when I first started hearing about Wuhan, it got my attention. Being in the medical field myself, I could tell this wasn't a SARS type of situation. I bought my N95 masks on Amazon 7 weeks ago when they were plentiful and people laughed at me. During the first crisis in 2008 I also bought dry food, propane tanks, propane generator, solar powered chargers and etc...and yes people laughed at me then also. My point, people need to realize that supply chain stability walks a very fine line between normal and chaos and empty shelves. Bottle of hand sanitizer going for 80.00 on eBay now and local groceries shelves emptied out. People are starting to get this now and in this way, people from here on out will realize that the foundations of society is abit more precarious than they thought.

2. TSLA the stock...now this one is tricky cause everyones situation is very different. For the average person who isn't adept at technical trading and relying on solely on fundamentals, they should probably just hold despite the pains. We are at crucial technical levels right now barely bouncing off the intermediate term bottom channels but if the mkt accepts prices below friday's low with conviction, we will be testing the long term bear channels which is a long way from here...people like me will not hold during this process if it happens.

If we can't hold this week and we head toward the long term bear mkt floor , I feel SPX 1300-1700 would be the target. But just know this, if we head there(and I really hope we don't), please please have some dry powder ready cause just when things look hopeless and dire that will be the time to buy and you can easily double and triple you money form these bottoms...but this also means TSLA will go down withe the general mkt's....mkt's will move in parallel with Corona news...when GILD's new antiviral drug results released in May the mkt's will move.....when I see IT targets taken out to downside, I see repercussions of what this means...I see layoffs, social fear/anxiety, anger, empty shelves, people dying on ventilators...if we can't how IT lines, I see a severe recession lasting this entire year.

People already being laid off now and certain sectors, all sports have shut it down, restaurants rez's down 30-50% already, even my golf club has shut it down.

3. Social Injustices--when the Fed Reserve says they will pump 1.5T into the mkt's, what they mean is that the US govt will print govt bonds(IOU's which will never be paid back if you think about it) and the Fed Reserve will print electronic 000's and buy the bonds.Then the govt gets it first, followed by banks and large corporations as cheap cheap money. The govt expects the avg Joe to get the benefit years later, when businesses start to spend it, make loans, govt can create some new social programs and etc, but during the acute time of need, not much happens.

But if you read social media and mainstream media, UBI(universe basic income) is gaining traction now. There is no better way to help the masses and stimulate the economy than giving this money directly to the people who will laid off and hurting....the mainstream will start to better understand this and demand that the govt do something for them...I think this is coming...Biden and Yang will be best friends soon.

4. The Big Unwind--HF leverage was the highest ever measured like a month ago...as mat's march downwards, this has to unwind...within interest rates so low and borrowing costs so low, they were forced to take huge risks in a bull mkt...with deleveraging liquidity of mkt's become strained the gap between bid/ask alarmingly high...the decoupling of bond prices and equities shows this...even "perceived" safe assets like gold/bitcoin not behaving normally...ETF mkt's are huge now and for the same reason people are excited that TSLA will get accepted into the SPX soon, the same forces were driving equities upwards. During downtimes, the same forces will drive the indexes and its stocks downward as people will pull out of ETF's in mass and amplifying the down forces...hence the mkt's are even more volatile now than 2008 when the entire financial system was on the verge of total collapse.

5. Social Unrest--when we think social unrest, we think of the far left or right with masks on but this won't be the case in 1-2 years...we will see the teachers/firemen/cops with signs protesting broken pension promises...the states can't print money and won't be able to meet obligations soon... people will decry "I had a guarantee"!...but when they realize that the choice is between 70% and nothing, they will take the 70% but they will do it with a lot of yelling....the PBCG will likely go bankrupt and will not be paying anything just like AIG didn't really insure CDS's in 2008 and etc...these entities are there for show and if a few institutions fail they may help but a systematic failure cannot be addressed...PBCG set to go bankrupt within 3 years or so....many teachers/cops who retired at age 52-3 will be going back to work.

6. healthcare--while China, Korea, Iran, Italy gave us the flow chart what was going to happen, the US for whatever reason didnt prepare or even admit this was going to be huge problem...people need to understand exponential growth...in Italy if your 65 years old or younger with significant comorbid diseases, if you get a heart attack they will not pull out the paddles or even do CPR...you will die,..all beds including hallways are used for critically ill and OR's are shut down so no elective surgeries are done now and traumas aren't being treated. While the US has the best healthcare, the number of ICU beds are severely lacking. Even Japan has way more ICU beds per capita.

The Who declared a pandemic a month too late and the US is fumbling around with the testing kits...Korea is testing more per day the entire number of tests that have been done in the US in its entirety.

Our hospitals will be over run soon and medical tents will prob be seen soon. The number of cases we admit to you need to multiply by 20-30...we have no idea how many cases we have due to lack of testing and we are telling people with URI's to stay home and not come into the med clinics and ER unless you need to be admitted...so only 10-15% off the true cases are even seeking medical care...thats why the cases are exploding cause 90% of ill people have no idea of they have a regular cold or corona.

Experts think that the penetration rate will be 20-40 million people will get infected eventually(analogous to the common flu).

But the good news is that social distancing does work and when you shut things down, the spread will slow down.

Sorry for the long rant , but we are in unprecedented times right now...prob a once in a generation event as nobody in their wildest imagination could they have guessed schools would close, sports will entirely shut down, and etc...but people are resilient and we will bounce back as always...and yes the stock mkt will take out all time highs ...may be 1 year from now, or 5, but it will happen...and yes, TSLA will dominate the automotive and energy sector I have no doubt.

 

[Christine69420]

Germany tries to stop US from luring away firm seeking coronavirus vaccine

Germany’s Health Ministry confirmed a report in newspaper Welt am Sonntag, which said President Donald Trump had offered funds to lure the company CureVac to the United States.

Berlin is trying to stop Washington from persuading a German company seeking a coronavirus vaccine to move its research to the United States, prompting German politicians to insist no country should have a monopoly on any future vaccine.​

German source: Corona: USA will Zugriff auf deutsche Impfstoff-Firma - WELT

If USA do this or similar I don't think I'm the only Europeean who will stop buying anything made in the USA. Including Tesla cars.

For a powerful country to grab a C19 vaccine and only allow it to be sold to Americans and not caring about the rest of the people on Earth is the lowest of the lowest I can think of right now.

Is USA trying to provoke a new trade war in the middle of the virus tragedy?

I'm shocked!