Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Question: with SP dropping below $555, will the accrued executive bonus to Elon be reversed out this Q, helping the bottomline?

That's a good question, maybe @The Accountant or @ReflexFunds can answer this?

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm surprised the NYSE waited this long to go all online.

 

[S3XY]

I am anxiously awaiting my delivery. Ever since Tesla learned that I was getting home delivery (and I assume they couldn't complete delivery by EOQ) I've heard nothing. I even called my advisor and left a message asking for an update. Crickets. So I think there are plenty of deliveries taking place in this quarter. If there were not then they would be moving mine along. I expect I'll get an update in a week or two to take delivery in early April. But my main point is that the end of quarter push is likely alive and well.

Sooo, I guess I spoke too soon. I got a call this afternoon from the Mt Kisco delivery center to schedule my Model Y delivery. I'm getting it this Sunday so I will make it into Q1.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The FINRA Short Selling Volume Report for Tue, Mar 17, 2020 is out.

"Short Exempt Volume" a.k.a. Market Maker's naked shorting was 5.41% of "Short Volume", which ranks at the 119th Percentile (very unlikely to occur by chance).

View attachment 522846

The -10% circuit breaker tripped again, so the "Uptick Rule" will remain in effect for the 5th consecutive day tomorrow, Mar 18, 2020. The only effect this rule is having is to empower naked short selling by Market Makers, allowing them to drive down TSLA even with macro tailwinds.

Read more about the SEC as a Captured Agency: (2011 cases discussed)

"Reporter Matt Taibbi calls the SEC a classic case of regulatory capture[84] and the SEC has been described as an agency that was set up to protect the public from Wall Street, but now protects Wall Street from the public.[85]"​

#SEC #BROKEN

The FINRA Short Selling Volume Report for Wed, Mar 18, 2020 is out.

"Short Exempt Volume" a.k.a. Market Maker's naked shorting was 8.59% of "Short Volume", which ranks at the 164th Percentile (extremely unlikely to occur by chance).

The -10% circuit breaker tripped again, so the "Uptick Rule" will remain in effect for the 6th consecutive day tomorrow, Mar 19, 2020. This rule is ineffective in curbing the amount of naked short selling. In fact, evidence shows that naked short selling by Market Makers is increased on days with the uptick rule in effect.

#NASDAQ #SEC #FIXYOURPROBLEM

 

[Thekiwi]

Well on the plus side, at least global carbon emissions are going to be reducing by a bit more than expected this year.

 

[Lessmog]

... ... [Wonderful post on not panicking]

Adding: I saw a wonderful video from Italy recently, a number of sequestered families playing music on their balconies together as a show of love, support and the surviving human nature of people. If only everyone was like that.

Could be a living meme, or the one I saw from Barcelona. The sax guy is apparently from Sweden. Lovely live jamming. Sequestered population cheered wildly.

 

[Fact Checking]

VIX options noob question:

could anyone explain to me why there's such a high difference between the model price and the actual price?

E.g. Apr 40 put: Model price $9; mid $4.45

View attachment 523164

Yeah, so the "Model price" is Black-Scholes options pricing, right?

If yes, then that's not a really good pricing model for the VIX, especially during such exceptional times. The market is pricing elevated VIX levels for April, hence the higher call prices and lower put prices. Writing puts can be particularly lucrative, as index options are settled in cash.

Note that April will bring a series of bad news about the US economy, possibly entering recession. So the VIX pricing might be accurate.

I suspect it's also a common trade to write a VIX put options and buy select equity call options with the cash. This finances lottery calls "for free", from theta:

• if equities bounce back the calls more than pay for the loss on the put written,
• if VIX stays high the calls are worthless, but were financed from the puts which are good.
• In the worst-case if equities bounce but the calls don't pay the put option writing downside is limited.

If this is frequent enough then this would depress the price of VIX puts, below their probable fair value, because the premium finances leveraged options bets.

But this is just speculation, I'm not 100% sure.

 

[Krugerrand]

I notice you’re discussing an island instead of an archipelago. Understandable given the economy.

I’m realistic, adaptable, and logical. As you say, given current economical conditions I can no longer afford to stock multiple islands with toilet paper. The island is the cheap part.

 

[Nocturnal]

I’m realistic, adaptable, and logical. As you say, given current economical conditions I can no longer afford to stock multiple islands with toilet paper. The island is the cheap part.

Thanks to this market I'm downgrading to this.

 

[RiverCard]

whereas they are refusing to shut down their US factory in an area that does have infection where all non-essential businesses have been ordered to shut. So it doesn’t seem like they are applying the same methodical safety measures as they did in China. Instead they are doing what quite frankly sounds like a scummy weasel like move in relying on a federal definition of essential to override local health authorities.

A bigger concern might be legal liability. If refusing to comply with a county's order to shut down temporarily constitutes negligence per se, all an injured party would only have to prove is damages (medical expenses, mental anguish, etc. related to contracting the virus) and that the refusal to shut down was the proximate cause of contracting the virus.

Either Tesla doesn't have Business Interruption insurance or has a high threshold of self-insured retention.

 

[vikings123]

OK. SO when no one is asking the Sheriff for his opinion, he blabs it out on social media like little Miss Gossip.

Now, when reporters want to know what's going on, he clams up like a dog with a bark collar.

Ask me why I have a dim view of law enforcement officers in the 21st century (it wasn't always this way).

Sad world these days. On the bright side, I'm loving the negativity here this morning and hearing about so many people bailing from their TSLA positions at bargain basement prices. This always happens during major market events like this. Now I can really smell the fear! Which can mean only one thing - the bottom is near!

I agree with this. The FUDsters have become so desperate that they are now digging for random things to put a spin on.

I do believe they are playing a dangerous game and we will have lift off(dependent on macros obviously) and never come back to these levels. I’m not complaining at all if it goes below 300 though.

 

[Intl Professor]

Speaking of turning lemons into sows ears, or whatever is the appropriate meme, now is the time to use guaranteed minimal national income for all as a transition to a sustainable economy as fossil fuels are phased out. Is this part of the green new deal? That ball is rolling. It just needs a push. (Significant mind farts today. Sorry. It's time for my afternoon nap.)

 

[ev-enthusiast]

NYC mayor pushes for 'shelter-in-place' order as coronavirus cases surge to almost 1,900

 

[NicoV]

What is the Italian healthcare model?

The same as the rest of Europe AFAIK: everybody is insured (automatically/mandatory) and a large part of the medical cost is covered by that insurance.

 

[Navin]

The usage of the word “Lone” is a nice touch. Sort of a tip to the tslaq community. hahha. Dana, Lora and Russell - wonder what they share in common economically speaking.

 

[humbaba]

OK. SO when no one is asking the Sheriff for his opinion, he blabs it out on social media like little Miss Gossip.

Now, when reporters want to know what's going on, he clams up like a dog with a bark collar.

Ask me why I have a dim view of law enforcement officers in the 21st century (it wasn't always this way).

Sad world these days. On the bright side, I'm loving the negativity here this morning and hearing about so many people bailing from their TSLA positions at bargain basement prices. This always happens during major market events like this. Now I can really smell the fear! Which can mean only one thing - the bottom is near!

It took some doing, but I did finally get some dry powder for tomorrow. It isn't much, but I'm hoping to add to my $TSLA position. If it turns out today was the bottom then I will get fewer shares. Big deal.

Anyone bailing for fear is foolish. Someone bailing because they will need the money in the near term hopefully did so at higher levels. I've got enough years left to make this a solid buy.

 

[Krugerrand]

The big question going forward is will Tesla still be able to sell every car they can make. And while that's certainly in question with the recent economic turmoil, I still think the answer might be "yes".

I think wrong question because it assumes that’s Tesla’s only product. It’s not.

 

[dw4ngg]

A bigger concern might be legal liability. If refusing to comply with a county's order to shut down temporarily constitutes negligence per se, all an injured party would only have to prove is damages (medical expenses, mental anguish, etc. related to contracting the virus) and that the refusal to shut down was the proximate cause of contracting the virus.

Either Tesla doesn't have Business Interruption insurance or has a high threshold of self-insured retention.

I don't think COVID-19 is covered by business interruptions - generally, you need some physical damage to property for BI to kick it. They may have it as a sublimit coverage, but even then, there's a 30 day waiting period (deductible) usually. They may have some other type of insurance to cover potential plant shutdown costs though - i.e. trade disruptions, etc.

 

[avoigt]

Any solid information about

The same as the rest of Europe AFAIK: everybody is insured (automatically/mandatory) and a large part of the medical cost is covered by that insurance.

There are key differences in the structure that are really important on top of that the level of insured people is very high.

It would make it a very long mail to explain but there are structural reasons that we have so far (cross fingers) such a low amount of deaths but numbers of infection grow in a significant way in Germany therefore its no doubt that deaths in absolute numbers will grow too.

However what no one discussed is that if the fatality rate in Germany remains that low we have a rate that not that much higher than a flue but the drastic measures bring a recession of course. However thats not to criticize measures as there is no other way in the situation we are in.

Hopefully we see already in a few days numbers of new cases to stabilize in Europe that would be a very positive sign.

 

[lklundin]

Is this serious? European here. Try making that argument in a bar in Glasgow, or East London. Its ok, we have free healthcare here that will treat you afterwards...

Right, that's funny. The point I am trying (and failing) to make is that life in the USA carries a _lot_ more risk with it that in the EU. So in the USA, many people will make tougher calls and will do what is needed to secure an income, because they literally live a single paycheck away from being homeless.[*]

People in the EU simply can't fathom this. Police assisted eviction of tenants is typically something people in the EU associate with pre-1940.

We need some humor here at TMC, so go on and make jokes - also at my expense, that's fine. I think I stated my point and will leave it at that.

[*] Yes, it seems that there is emergency legislation being passed several places putting a temporary stop on eviction of tenants - but the mentality does not change like that.

PS. I visited a bar in Glasgow, many years ago. I am unsure when I will visit again, but I remember the beer as being damn good. (Don't nobody tell my neighbors I said that...).