Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Quesder]

OK, at this point I think the 25% agreement is smart, but also implies something bad could happen:
Elon knows that the shelter-in-place could extend indefinitely in the future; if he doesn't bargain at all, the factory could shutdown for a quarter. That will definitely make the company die. With 25% manufacturing, at least the company can survive.

 

[dw4ngg]

It depends:

Is Your Business Insured for the Coronavirus? | JD Supra

Fremont is situated on the northern end of a known fault line so maybe the internal risk managers set up some kind of program.

It probably would have had to have been specifically addressed and requested. But not impossible. Given Elon's tweets, I just don't see him as being concerned enough at the time to pay for this.

 

[Fact Checking]

Good guess. If litigation ensues, Tesla might "beat the rap but not the ride." The ride (cost of defense) can get expensive both to pay the lawyers and because of the diversion of management time to help in the defense. I'm not predicting anything, other than suggesting that hubris that one is above the law has an additional dimension to the OP's suggestion it presents a poor public image during a time of crisis and may actually cause direct financial harm to the corporation, particularly if it is arguably excluded by the terms of Tesla's general liability policy.

Uhm what?

Maximizing the client's rights is the job of good attorneys. As long as Tesla think it complies with federal law in good faith and their attorneys agree, it's not hubris at all to do so.

If Tesla and county officials cannot agree on how to apply federal and state law, there's a judiciary system to resolve such disputes.

Sorry, but your whole argument is pretty disingenuous...

 

[lklundin]

Shortzes care.

Yes. I am not a Tesla short seller, but I care.

I think the continued production at Fremont helps to demonstrate the simplicity of Tesla's design, the strength of their vertical integration, their ability to manage their supply chains - and their fast learning from GF3 on how to deal with COVID-19.

It is being given a different spin in the main stream media, but helps me confirm me in my investment thesis.

 

[Unpilot]

OK, at this point I think the 25% agreement is smart, but also implies something bad could happen:
Elon knows that the shelter-in-place could extend indefinitely in the future; if he doesn't bargain at all, the factory could shutdown for a quarter. That will definitely make the company die. With 25% manufacturing, at least the company can survive.

 

[MC3OZ]

I hope Tesla are putting thought into how they can further reduce the risk of Covid-19 at Fremont and get approval for fully opening the factory as fast as possible...

Here is my quick list from minimal thought:-

• Gloves and masks - some wear them now, all should wear them, review all aspects.
• Where workers are situated too close together, investigate dividing perspex screens.
• Take temps of all workers before each shift and perhaps on meal breaks.
• Workers staying home have the option to report their temp and symptoms..
• Investigate changing work practices to use fewer workers.
• Investigate shorter shifts.

These are the extra steps I think are fully justified but may be harder or more expensive:-

• Add the ability to test for Covid-19 at a car park in Fremont.
• Investigate whether Tesla doctors can prescribe known safe treatment options.

IMO early diagnosis and treatment could make a big difference in reducing the hospital admissions.. It is important Tesla does all it can to get factories back to fully operational, make them safer and protect the health of the workers as best they can.

If think if Tesla could put out a statement with a more detailed version of my shopping list before the next earnings call that would be ideal both from the point of view of supporting the share price, getting factories open and keeping them open.

Any money spent in this area is well spent, and there are on going benefits in terms of the health of the workforce over the long run well after Covid-19 has run it course and perhaps for the next big virus event.

 

[jerry33]

For starters we have learned that a country with an older population is more susceptible to complications and dying from viral infections. Oh what, oh what should we do about that? Maybe we should send everyone over the age of 65 to Redemption Island?

My understanding is that they also have to have some other medical issue, or smoke. Personally, I'm counting on the 50+ minutes of rowing five days a week (so far no shortness of breath) to keep me healthy (along with masks, frequent hand washing, and going only to the the grocery store--though I will violate this to pick up the new X).

 

[Evoforce]

My understanding is that they also have to have some other medical issue, or smoke. Personally, I'm counting on the 50+ minutes of rowing five days a week (so far no shortness of breath) to keep me healthy (along with masks, frequent hand washing, and going only to the the grocery store--though I will violate this to pick up the new X).

One X-ception..

 

[RiverCard]

My only concern around the short term share price is I want all convertible notes converting, that isn't a change of mind I've always wanted that.

From a Balance Sheet risk perspective, the parabolic share price action on the way up acted as an accelerant since it meant the convertible notes could be settled with shares, rather than cash (which is eternally king). Conversely, on the other side of the parabola as the share price declines, it tends to be a depressant. One thing for sure, the share price will gyrate significantly before those three maturities of convertibles must be settled.

The interesting factor is that Moody's "held their water" on Tesla's credit rating (or maybe the market whipsawed before Moody's could react.)

 

[Unpilot]

I decided I am not going to drink anymore....only because I don't think it is physically possible.

Hey what about that after hours action!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I have a confession to make: I sold all my shares at 800 a few weeks ago. After my well publicized bailout and buyback - a few weeks earlier - I was convinced I wouldn’t be selling anymore. But then corona happened. After the situation in Italy started deteriorating it became crystal clear to me how events in the rest of Europe and the world would roll out. And TSLA would not be immune to it. So I decided to preserve my gains. It wasn’t fear, it just seemed like the smart thing to do.

But it was always my intention to get back in and that’s what I started doing today: I bought half of my position back at 370, 360 and 352 (358 average). It may have been too soon, as the US has not yet seen the height of the corona crisis and the economic impact still has to become visible. So I’m still keeping cash to buy back the rest, plus more, if we go lower.

Over the last few weeks, as we were going down, I felt a lot of respect for the HODL’ers here, for sticking to their conviction no matter what. But I also felt sorry for them, for not being able to cash in on their gains and being able to buy back more shares at a lower price. I’d want that for all longs.

An easier think to do emotionally than part with your beloved shares may be to sell a small amnt (perhaps 4%) and buy protective puts to ensure your capital.

@KarenRei demonstrated this technique masterfully over the past month.

You may still want to consider some Puts, as Shortzie never quits, and aint' done yet. Sure to exploit any weakness in Q1 P&D, Earnings, Q2 ... (rinse'n'repeat)

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm surprised the NYSE waited this long to go all online.

They had to pretend like they were actually doing something. Can you imagine collecting all those fees if people knew that computers did all the work? It was smoke and mirrors, all for show.

 

[Artful Dodger]

This 25% workforce agreement smells like Elon’s four-dimensional chess to me. He’s inoculated himself against factory closure for an indefinite period. He no longer has to fight that fight. And as others have suggested, I’ll bet he has found a way to maximize profits as a function of workforce.

Model Y robotically-installed wiring harness FTW. Coming soon to a Model 3 near you...

 

[MC3OZ]

OK, at this point I think the 25% agreement is smart, but also implies something bad could happen:
Elon knows that the shelter-in-place could extend indefinitely in the future; if he doesn't bargain at all, the factory could shutdown for a quarter. That will definitely make the company die. With 25% manufacturing, at least the company can survive.

See my post:- Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

25% is just the starting point, Tesla can work on getting agreement to increase it.

I also agree with this post:- Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

Model Y is probably the priority and 25% may be enough to make the Model Y.

The next priority will probably be Plaid Model S but that may only be around August.

They may use forced downtime to make some improvements to the Model S/X/3 lines.

In the long run working out how to keep factories open is much more sensible than simply closing them, Elon and Tesla have solved much harder problems in the past.

If Health Officials make them jump over a high bar, I don't mind that at all, whatever the bar is they will clear it, because clearing it should be top priority.

 

[avoigt]

Tesla the only one who cranking cars out. F, FCA and GM are closed down. Chinese will be buying next weeks tsla stock as they know, this crisid will end rather quickly. Also europeans are starting to get it bit by bit, as you hear more and more people are recovering quickly from the virus.

Plus all European factories are shutting too while Tesla continues to do ground work for GF4.

In China VW stated to hope to be at 40-50% next week with output wonder where GF3 is...

Looks pretty good for Tesla compared to other automakers

 

[MC3OZ]

From a Balance Sheet risk perspective, the parabolic share price action on the way up acted as an accelerant since it meant the convertible notes could be settled with shares, rather than cash (which is eternally king). Conversely, on the other side of the parabola as the share price declines, it tends to be a depressant. One thing for sure, the share price will gyrate significantly before those three maturities of convertibles must be settled.

The interesting factor is that Moody's "held their water" on Tesla's credit rating (or maybe the market whipsawed before Moody's could react.)

At this stage I expect all Convertible notes to convert, if that doesn't happen then frankly it is the least of our worries, because things will be very bad, not just for Tesla for everyone..

I'm just not seeing that level of bad happening when the virus is a known quantity and there are multiple ways of combating it.

 

[Thekiwi]

I am sure they hedged the exchange rate.

IIRC Tesla said they don’t hedge currency risks.

 

[Pras]

At this stage I expect all Convertible notes to convert, if that doesn't happen then frankly it is the least of our worries, because things will be very bad, not just for Tesla for everyone..

I'm just not seeing that level of bad happening when the virus is a known quantity and there are multiple ways of combating it.

On this point, can tesla buyback some of the 600 call options it sold as part of convertible offering?

 

[PlaidCPA]

There seems to be an update to this story.

In a follow-up call on Wednesday afternoon, Kelly told BuzzFeed News that "producing cars" is not considered essential. If the company is found to be manufacturing automobiles, the county would take action to bring them under compliance with the law, he said.

"[Manufacturing cars] violates our health order and we're asking them to go to basic minimum functions," he said.

Source: Tesla's Factory Can Stay Open But Manufacturing Cars Would Break The Law, A Sheriff's Office Said

Updated 1:45 hours after original posting

TSLAQ all over it

TeslaCharts on Twitter

 

[Thekiwi]

OK, at this point I think the 25% agreement is smart, but also implies something bad could happen:
Elon knows that the shelter-in-place could extend indefinitely in the future; if he doesn't bargain at all, the factory could shutdown for a quarter. That will definitely make the company die. With 25% manufacturing, at least the company can survive.

nope. One quarter of factory shutdown will most definitely not “make the company die”.