Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GOVA]

I agree with the overall focus of your post, and pretty much everything except this bullet. Do you have a source, or other reason why you think Tesla has the best internal software systems in the world?

My personal impression, as a customer since 2013, is that Tesla has some of the worst internal software systems in the world. As a data management professional, it seems to me that Tesla doesn't know what a data model (3rd normal form), good database design - it's as if they've only hired software engineers and no data management people. It's manifested in such simple problems as service being unable to update my address (back in 2013) because that was the sales system, and it kept pushing the previous owner's address into the default page that service would get.

Marketing db that couldn't keep track of whether to send me invites to launch events (not sure I'd have gone, but as a signature Model X reservation holder, there were a couple of events over the years I'd have at least liked to get an invite).

I can't remember the recent issue somebody else ran into, but I commented along these lines, and let him know that at least he could be comforted by the idea that their basic db design problems change over the years.

They might not be easily the worst, but for a company of Tesla's scale, I've been left feeling like it's amateur hour on this front over the years.

This is actually very informative and surprising in a negative way. I also know this is serious knowledge when you mentioned normalization in there.

How would you explain this? They do have the best software systems that they design for the cars/self driving/etc. but crappy DBs in there?

 

[powertoold]

How would you explain this? They do have the best software systems that they design for the cars/self driving/etc. but crappy DBs in there?

Perhaps their sales and customer tracking software sucks, but that's maybe because they allocated their best engineers for the car software

Elon's focus has always been to create the best product, often at the expense of other aspects

 

[PhaseWhite]

The 6+ trillion dollars question: how long it will take the economy to reopen?
For me personally it is completely different preparation scenarios:
1) 1-2-3 months
Preserve some cash, keep on stocks.
2) 6 months. Forget stocks, go for all cash. Change everyday behaviors.
3) 12 months+ Forget cash, go for guns and ammo, full zombie-movie scenario.

I personally prepare for scenario 1 just because I lack imagination for scenarios 2 and 3, but very interested in opinions (fact based if such thing still exists).

My educated guess is we'll be under extreme restrictions for at-least 2-3 months at a minimum. If the US can get its act together and coordinate a consistent policy response at the federal level then we may be able to relax some restrictions at that point along with massively scaled up testing and public health surveillance. This does not mean a return to normal operating conditions. Even 2-3 months of lock down is a catastrophic shock to small businesses. Even if the government gives the OK to open again, how many consumers will come back?

Over the next few months many businesses will become insolvent. Unemployment will spike. Deleveraging from secondary credit and loan defaults will cascade through the system causing deflation on a massive scale.

As far as what the broader market will do, that's tough to predict but I see it trading down significantly as fundamentals deteriorate.

TL;DR I think we're headed for scenario 2 and I don't see return to normal social operating conditions until 12+ months and it could take 1-2 years for the global economy to recover to pre virus GDP.

 

[MP3Mike]

Internal run-the-company software - as best I can tell, Tesla has a pretty serious Not Invented Here Syndrome (I'm guessing, based on my interpretation of what I've experienced mostly, plus what I've seen described by others);

I saw people reported that Tesla was using Sales Force for their CRM and that it sucked, but more recently they have switched to a in-house developed CRM.

 

[Mo City]

The 6+ trillion dollars question: how long it will take the economy to reopen?
For me personally it is completely different preparation scenarios:
1) 1-2-3 months
Preserve some cash, keep on stocks.
2) 6 months. Forget stocks, go for all cash. Change everyday behaviors.
3) 12 months+ Forget cash, go for guns and ammo, full zombie-movie scenario.

I personally prepare for scenario 1 just because I lack imagination for scenarios 2 and 3, but very interested in opinions (fact based if such thing still exists).

My 2 cents: By sometime in May (at the latest), people in growing numbers will defiantly start gathering together in groups and it will snowball from there. Businesses will follow as will the economy. But some industries that depend on packed, large crowds won't completely recover..

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

My 2 cents: By sometime in May (at the latest), people in growing numbers will defiantly start gathering together in groups and it will snowball from there. Businesses will follow as will the economy. But some industries that depend on packed, large crowds won't completely recover..

I'll just put my quick 2 cents in and won't discuss past this but a few things

- A vaccine will be made in the next 12 months and fast tracked through faster than any vaccine in history. I wouldn't be surprised on a vaccine being put to use in 6 months.

- Some parts of the country actually took this seriously and will open up way sooner than other states. The West coast in general is way ahead of the east coast. I think here in Seattle we will be opening up the economy once again by the 3rd or 4th week of April with certain guidelines in place. I do expect air travel to be grounded soon. I'm just flabbergasted that they're still allowing air travel between states

- The mortality rate is going to go down dramatically as more tests are made available and taken

- Mass testing will get the US back to somewhat normal by May or June...except that the population will have to be mandated to take the test on a weekly or biweekly rate

- To touch on what you said......by May or June, I honestly think people will accept the death rate and chose or maybe demand that the economy opens back up and restrictions are lifted. I honestly think the death rate would have to be like 5% for people to care enough and as testing gets expanded exponentially, people are going to see the death rate at something like 1% and be like "Eh I'm ok with that". Not putting my personal opinion in there......I actually think people will come to that logic.

 

[Prunesquallor]

My 2 cents: By sometime in May (at the latest), people in growing numbers will defiantly start gathering together in groups and it will snowball from there. Businesses will follow as will the economy. But some industries that depend on packed, large crowds won't completely recover..

I agree. Restaurants, bars, retailers and gyms, yes (perhaps at reduced capacity to allow distancing). Sporting events, cruises and large concerts, no.

 

[Green Pete]

This is actually very informative and surprising in a negative way. I also know this is serious knowledge when you mentioned normalization in there.

How would you explain this? They do have the best software systems that they design for the cars/self driving/etc. but crappy DBs in there?

As a software engineer who works with some brilliant people on an ML team I can confidently say that someone can be a bloody genius at ML and deep learning etc but be horrendous at database schema design. Different software disciplines dont really overlap. Its not a big surprise to me that teslas database stuff is terrible. Not a whole lot of a complex relational stuff needed in their system. Probably nobody has said loudly enough, "you know we really should hire a database engineer"

 

[Green Pete]

I saw people reported that Tesla was using Sales Force for their CRM and that it sucked, but more recently they have switched to a in-house developed CRM.

Salesforce is utter trash. But its the industry standard. What do you do. :shrug:

 

[Mich]

Ad Tesla home delivery: Is there any other company in the US and EU selling cars right now?

We don't know how many Tesla sells, but the sell!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Posted this in the oil thread.

Interesting market contagion that will certainly accelerate. I can't tell if this is good or bad.

Oil-rich wealth funds seen shedding upto $225 billion in stocks

 

[wipster]

Ad Tesla home delivery: Is there any other company in the US and EU selling cars right now?

We don't know how many Tesla sells, but the sell!

I believe it's Ford that's advertising both ordering on-line and home delivery of their vehicles (may be GM) on TV ads... don't know how well their system works or how it integrates with their dealer networks, but it appears this crisis has forced then to wake up to the 21st century.

 

[dhrivnak]

To expand on this, NOW is a great time to spend the effort on improving these systems while the devs are forced to WFH and production is shut down. Tesla is going to need to be surgically accurate and close every sales opportunity in the short term.

We’ve been trying to get a yes/no on our solar roof in PA, with the concern that our roof design is “too complicated.” We prepaid for Solar Roof long before it was called Solar Roof and have sent in support requests to just open a dialogue before going too far into the process (we’ve sent them architecture plans for their review) and it’s been radio silence.

We have a metal roof + thin film solar as a backup option, but Tesla literally has a sale to lose if they don’t respond to us. This shouldn’t STILL be happening!

And I have had a PowerWall on order for 10 weeks now and I can’t get them to return a call. I also work part time for a local solar installer and we have submitted 4 applications to install PowerWalls and we don’t even get the courtesy of a reply email. It as if they do not want to sell energy products. Very frustrating.

 

[junas]

Ad Tesla home delivery: Is there any other company in the US and EU selling cars right now?

We don't know how many Tesla sells, but the sell!

Stealerships are still open in most EU countries.

My friend just went this weekend to pick up his Kia Ceed. There aren't many customers like him though. His old car broke down and he had no choice than take one of those generous deals. Most dealerships are so quiet that it's smaller risk to catch virus there than almost anywhere else.

In Finland our capital area is now fenced from the rest of the country and people are not driving around much anymore. Need for any car is close to zero apart from weekly grocery shopping.

 

[Green Pete]

And I have had a PowerWall on order for 10 weeks now and I can’t get them to return a call. I also work part time for a local solar installer and we have submitted 4 applications to install PowerWalls and we don’t even get the courtesy of a reply email. It as if they do not want to sell energy products. Very frustrating.

Lol. I feel like you live somewhere less affected by the current situation and don't realize what a standstill much of the country is in.

Stop sending them emails. They will read the original one you sent after they get through the other 10,000 in front of it.

 

[RationalOptimist]

I'll just put my quick 2 cents in and won't discuss past this but a few things

- A vaccine will be made in the next 12 months and fast tracked through faster than any vaccine in history. I wouldn't be surprised on a vaccine being put to use in 6 months.

- Some parts of the country actually took this seriously and will open up way sooner than other states. The West coast in general is way ahead of the east coast. I think here in Seattle we will be opening up the economy once again by the 3rd or 4th week of April with certain guidelines in place. I do expect air travel to be grounded soon. I'm just flabbergasted that they're still allowing air travel between states

- The mortality rate is going to go down dramatically as more tests are made available and taken

- Mass testing will get the US back to somewhat normal by May or June...except that the population will have to be mandated to take the test on a weekly or biweekly rate

- To touch on what you said......by May or June, I honestly think people will accept the death rate and chose or maybe demand that the economy opens back up and restrictions are lifted. I honestly think the death rate would have to be like 5% for people to care enough and as testing gets expanded exponentially, people are going to see the death rate at something like 1% and be like "Eh I'm ok with that". Not putting my personal opinion in there......I actually think people will come to that logic.

There's a lot of wisdom in this.. especially fourth bullet. 2 months of serious lockdown followed by mass-testing-accompanied gradual return is the only way to beat this thing ahead of vaccine arriving. 6 months is optimistic for that, but not impossible. I'm not sure about your last point, though. Once there are 5k deaths/day in the US, as there will be within three weeks, and still growing, it could unlock a pretty big river of grief and anger...

 

[SMAlset]

And I have had a PowerWall on order for 10 weeks now and I can’t get them to return a call. I also work part time for a local solar installer and we have submitted 4 applications to install PowerWalls and we don’t even get the courtesy of a reply email. It as if they do not want to sell energy products. Very frustrating.

Does Tesla Energy work out of GigaNevada site? I know they said they were laying off 75% of workers temporarily do to CV.

I’m also not sure if any solar install related work is going on now. Here in SFBay our city won’t let our sole electrician (so social distancing no problem) install our upgraded main panel (for solar panel/PW) right now. Would have been done along with solar by end of month. City’s inspectors aren’t going out to houses right now, so we are pretty much shut down workwise. As more states shut down to non-essential work, I think there’s going to be a big backlog. We ordered 1/4 and in March I think were told the PW install work would be pushed back to the fall. Just point of reference for you.

as to them not wanting to sell, don’t think that’s a problem out here. Way more sales then they can handle and have enough trained work teams for I think. Our electric company in SFBay area, PG&E, has last year and will for next 10 years they say, shut off everyone’s electricity when high winds occur in dry high fire danger weather. Said will take them that long to fix lines so smaller areas can be turned off. Hundreds of thousands of customers were in the dark county wide for sometimes days. Huge need for the PWs here. Maybe you heard about the town of Paradise burning down and other fire related claims forcing them into bankruptcy? Sure all this and CV has something to do with lack of response to date.

 

[Thekiwi]

I'll just put my quick 2 cents in and won't discuss past this but a few things

- A vaccine will be made in the next 12 months and fast tracked through faster than any vaccine in history. I wouldn't be surprised on a vaccine being put to use in 6 months.

- Some parts of the country actually took this seriously and will open up way sooner than other states. The West coast in general is way ahead of the east coast. I think here in Seattle we will be opening up the economy once again by the 3rd or 4th week of April with certain guidelines in place. I do expect air travel to be grounded soon. I'm just flabbergasted that they're still allowing air travel between states

- The mortality rate is going to go down dramatically as more tests are made available and taken

- Mass testing will get the US back to somewhat normal by May or June...except that the population will have to be mandated to take the test on a weekly or biweekly rate

- To touch on what you said......by May or June, I honestly think people will accept the death rate and chose or maybe demand that the economy opens back up and restrictions are lifted. I honestly think the death rate would have to be like 5% for people to care enough and as testing gets expanded exponentially, people are going to see the death rate at something like 1% and be like "Eh I'm ok with that". Not putting my personal opinion in there......I actually think people will come to that logic.

1% death rate? You mean ~3 million Americans dying? You think americans would be ok with that? Or am I misinterpreting you perhaps?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

1% death rate? You mean ~3 million Americans dying? You think americans would be ok with that? Or am I misinterpreting you perhaps?

Not every single American is going to get the virus. Even in a absolute horrific worst case scenario, not even close to half would get Americans. Virus like these just do not work that way and that's part of the reason I get annoyed with doomsday people here and out in life that make it seem that way. Even if the virus was left unchecked and no precautions made, it would likely die out naturally before a third of the American population got infected by it.

To answer you and RationalOptimist, I think after a month of lockdown across the country, yes, the population would essentially become emotional immune to news of a couple thousand deaths a day especially whens its been communicated that a peak is coming. I've just been around enough situations and people to think I know a good enough about human nature and how willing they are to accept certain things.

 

[Green Pete]

Not every single American is going to get the virus. Even in a absolute horrific worst case scenario, not even close to half would get Americans. Virus like these just do not work that way and that's part of the reason I get annoyed with doomsday people here and out in life that make it seem that way. Even if the virus was left unchecked and no precautions made, it would likely die out naturally before a third of the American population got infected by it.

To answer you and RationalOptimist, I think after a month of lockdown across the country, yes, the population would essentially become emotional immune to news of a couple thousand deaths a day especially whens its been communicated that a peak is coming. I've just been around enough situations and people to think I know a good enough about human nature and how willing they are to accept certain things.

Modeling suggestions with the level of control measures we are having 60%+ of the country will be infected at some point.

Coronavirus Could Overwhelm U.S. Without Urgent Action, Estimates Say