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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Krugerrand
Meow
I want to know how long until they implode. How long will the Government, er...taxpayer, er, unemployed citizen, er...just how bloody long until they implode.
I can’t decide if I want this economic shutdown to continue until GM, Ford and all the rest just simply can’t be propped up a second longer, or if I want to walk again amongst people and socialize — ok, let’s be honest that’s not even a challenging question.
We’ve had a solid two weeks of shutdown with another four to go for sure. Can we assume at least another 12.5% decline for Q2, or shall we walk out onto the limb a bit and double that number?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Their most profitable vehicles dropped less: (Marketwatch)
"Truck sales fell 5.4% to 263,757 vehicles, SUV sales dropped 11.0% to 189,720"
Sounds like strangle time to me. Yeah I know, take it to the Options thread.
I love the supportive unconditional love that this forum gives me with my morning coffee...
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
The market understands or projects that most of the new unemployment claims are temporary until businesses re-open. It's a different situation entirely than when people are laid off because there is no future demand for their products and services.
When the dollar is devalued, the value of stock denominated in $USD rises. Holding the stock of solid companies is one of the best protections against inflation.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Potentially, and I think this is perfectly relevant to this thread since it's not "advanced" and only speaks to one market event.
The potential downswing is mostly priced in though and I think it would trigger some buying within the same session. So maybe $35 max to the downside and $120 max up?
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I give it 75% today, 25% tomorrow.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Maybe Elon knows this and will purposely hold a positive announcement til 10am Friday in an effort to build in randomness and future unpredictability?
Cupidchild
Member
only came down to 467. Missed your buy.
Stock wants to go higher... everyone looking and waiting for P&D numbers... Just like the market, estimates are everywhere.. lol We all know its going to be lower than last year but how low.. Does it matter? Since everything is worried about 2QTR and beyond. I'm more interested in end of year guidance and also when factory will re-open back for full production capacity.Most is the optimistic way of saying a certain unknown percentage. Some (many) businesses are collapsing and will collapse as a result of the recent downturn and its inevitable aftermath (just a few posts up someone was positing that Tesla's potential collapse, as improbable as it may be, should be a factor in deciding whether to hold or get out; not all businesses have Tesla's financial fortitude and potential, in fact many businesses were barely hanging on before this thing started). So while some of the people claiming unemployment now will have a job to return to after some as-of-yet undetermined duration, some will not. And if we think of the former as a percentage of the overall extra number of claims these days, then the logical conclusion is that the number of people in the latter category also went up, by a lot. So in a few months you'll have the situation of many people simultaneously looking for work, and many businesses barely clinging on and not in the mood to hire people. Which means "the market" is being overly optimistic about the status quo.
Eloquently said. I think not everyone is suited to this type of forum, ourselves included. We are just getting ready to retire this year, late fifties, enjoy polite discussion and have enjoyed recounting our journey to our Tesla purchase. The forum has definetly changed over the last couple years and rude rhetoric is now the norm and most seem fine with it. As you said, the amount of support that post received is a clear signal that we are not well suited to this medium. And on that note we’ll back away from regular use of this board. Still, it’s a great board with lots of great information and some of the most intelligent people we haven’t
met. Wishing everyone good health and years of happy Tesla experiences....now go wash your hands.
Those vehicles don't have Tesla competitors yet (at least until a few weeks ago). Model Y and Cybertruck will change that.
Edit: Artful Dodger's post is about Ford.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Elon previously suggested demand for Model Y would be over 1M per year, and about 750K/yr during a recession. This seems quite possible since many prospective Model Y customers are white collar workers (although there's a few small biz. owners in that pool too).
Just for S&Gs, let's say there's 0.75 demand across the board for Tesla's existing vehicles in 2020, and potential supply of 400K N.American made Models 3/Y.
That makes 0.25 * 400K * 64KWh of existing GF1 bty capacity available for Semi. If Tesla starts with the Std Rge product, that's enough bty cells for approx 10K Semi's.
There's easily enough demand for 10 thousand trucks per year that pay for themselves on fuel savings alone in 2 years. Big companies like Walmart, Coca-Cola, and other large fleet operators would siphon them up as fast as they can be made.
Again we see, Tesla has NO demand problems. Even in a recession, they are always BATTERY limited.
Cheers!
Just for S&Gs, let's say there's 0.75 demand across the board for Tesla's existing vehicles in 2020, and potential supply of 400K N.American made Models 3/Y.
That makes 0.25 * 400K * 64KWh of existing GF1 bty capacity available for Semi. If Tesla starts with the Std Rge product, that's enough bty cells for approx 10K Semi's.
There's easily enough demand for 10 thousand trucks per year that pay for themselves on fuel savings alone in 2 years. Big companies like Walmart, Coca-Cola, and other large fleet operators would siphon them up as fast as they can be made.
Again we see, Tesla has NO demand problems. Even in a recession, they are always BATTERY limited.
Cheers!
Anyone seeing anything specific on why the market is rallying? CNBC attributing it to Trump saying Russia and the Saudis will agree to cut oil production. Doesn't seem like a valid reason to rally to me.
Stocks extend rally after Trump tells CNBC Saudis and Russia will ease oil pressure, Dow up 500 points
Stocks extend rally after Trump tells CNBC Saudis and Russia will ease oil pressure, Dow up 500 points
That was a quarter with two normal months and one 'corona month', so March was probably down 30 or 40%.
The Unemployment number of 6.6M is now including folks who previously could not claim/apply; namely the self-employed and independent contractors. CARES expanded the privileges to include those folks now. So you cannot compare this 6.6M to the past.
So yeah as usual, the reporting in the media is coated with ignorance.
So yeah as usual, the reporting in the media is coated with ignorance.
And Trump should be the one to report what two other countries are planning to do?
He's got 0 credibility with me and anyone paying attention at this point, I find it ridiculous that Russia or Saudi Arabia would be comfortable with him being their spokesperson .... in other words ... he's making this up ... like usual.
larmor
Active Member
So higher oil and gas prices help everyone, even tesla-- thank you russia and saudi.
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