Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

So while some of the people claiming unemployment now will have a job to return to after some as-of-yet undetermined duration, some will not.

Most of the people being laid off now are because their employers had to shut down because of the spread of CV. That's as good as a fact. Now I'm going to give you my opinion and suggest the percentage of people laid off due to CV is around 90%. While a few mom and pop operations who were thinking of closing anyway will decide this is as good of a time as any, ~90% will re-open. While it's true that the economy could totally collapse and screw everyone, reputable economists are not expecting this.

In my 30+ years investing, I've seen a lot of people with a tendency to predict doom and gloom, economic collapse, the bankruptcy of the Federal Government, the collapse of the dollar, WWIII, etc. to know that this is normal human fear, fear of losing the few assets they have, fear that is not normally reflected in reality. People who believe such things are not investors in the economy and tend to never make much money or get very far ahead.

Meanwhile, the billionaires of the world snatch up the cheap stocks and become worth even more while the regular peons are forced to continue working to support their existence. This is how it's always been. You can claim things are different "this time around" and my only words to you are "good luck", for the sake of humanity I hope you're wrong.

That said, there is probably at least one more re-testing of market lows before things get back to normal.

 

[Nocturnal]

Anyone seeing anything specific on why the market is rallying? CNBC attributing it to Trump saying Russia and the Saudis will agree to cut oil production. Doesn't seem like a valid reason to rally to me.
Stocks extend rally after Trump tells CNBC Saudis and Russia will ease oil pressure, Dow up 500 points

The market is stupid. It will be back down tomorrow or Monday when people switch browser tabs back to all the CV chaos.

 

[Rarity]

CNBC attributing it to Trump saying Russia and the Saudis will agree to cut oil production. Doesn't seem like a valid reason to rally to me.

A couple of years ago, some 20% of the profits in the S&P 500 were from oil companies. I don't know what percentage that was last year, but it probably was still a surprisingly high number. For sure, corporate profits during the great recession were buoyed by high oil prices.

 

[sparcs]

Meanwhile, the billionaires of the world snatch up the cheap stocks and become worth even more while the regular peons are forced to continue working to support their existence. This is how it's always been. You can claim things are different "this time around" and my only words to you are "good luck", for the sake of humanity I hope you're wrong.

I wonder if there will open up some opportunities for acquisitions by Tesla. Businesses that normally wouldn't be for sale. Although Tesla's cash needs probably take priority?

 

[Stars aligned]

For reasons stated Tesla should not raise prices during pandemic.

Marginal cash from raising prices is insignificant. PR hit could be very significant.

Doesn't matter, if they see they'll run out of inventory for a longer time, they will, in one way or another.

Look I said in early Q4 that first Y's will be delivered in Q1 and was ridiculed. So

 

[Nocturnal]

The Unemployment number of 6.6M is now including folks who previously could not claim/apply; namely the self-employed and independent contractors. CARES expanded the privileges to include those folks now. So you cannot compare this 6.6M to the past.

So yeah as usual, the reporting in the media is coated with ignorance.

Are you sure of that? U3 is the standard and I'd need to see that 6.6M is U5 or U6 to discount that number.

 

[StealthP3D]

That was a quarter with two normal months and one 'corona month', so March was probably down 30 or 40%.

That also speaks to how strong the American economy was in the first two months of the year. I think people who expecting the CV to throw us into a long-lasting recession will be disappointed. The markets always look forward.

 

[Rarity]

Most of the people being laid off now are because their employers had to shut down because of the spread of CV. That's as good as a fact. Now I'm going to give you my opinion and suggest the percentage of people laid off due to CV is around 90%. While a few mom and pop operations who were thinking of closing anyway will decide this is as good of a time as any, ~90% will re-open. While it's true that the economy could totally collapse and screw everyone, reputable economists are not expecting this.

I have heard people use the term "furlough" rather than "lay off." I think there is a technical difference based on the new stimulus that was just signed into law. Those furloughed show up as unemployed in the new claims figure, but their benefits are still covered by the employer somehow (not in the same way as COBRA benefits, which normally are paid by the laid-off worker). This could result in companies readily bringing these unemployed folks back on the payroll.

If true, it might impact the market's view of the new claims figure.

 

[neezer]

Are you sure of that? U3 is the standard and I'd need to see that 6.6M is U5 or U6 to discount that number.

Are you newly eligible for unemployment insurance? Here's what to know

 

[gtrplyr1]

Only 8am here on the west coast so maybe Tesla won't report those numbers till later today. I can't remember the protocol that Tesla has for releasing those numbers, does it always happen before or after the bell?

 

[hobbes]

You know, for the past year or more you have been finding endless reasons to not get a Tesla. Now you're complaining you just can't get one because of the wrong wheels. Right. Just buy the damned thing. Then buy the wheels you want and have them put on. Sell the wheels it came with. Problem solved. Are you really this unable to get anything done in other parts of your life?

Seriously, there's a huge difference between "can't" and "won't". You have been and continue to be somebody who "won't". It's really tedious.

Cannot believe how many positive ratings this personal attack got, even by people I kind of liked. Really disappointed.

Rudeness is a matter of opinion much of the time.

This is an Internet forum; polite society has always just been an illusion.

If what’s said isn’t the truth then scroll on by and don’t give it a second thought. You’ll notice, though, that more than a dozen here thought it the truth. It’s certainly the impression you’ve given.

If what’s said is the truth then just accept it about yourself. Next step is either to be okay with who you are or change to who you want to be.

Completely despise this kind of thinking.

Not going to argue any more about this. Going away till this has returned to a state where I feel comfortable. Stay healthy.

 

[UCF3]

And Trump should be the one to report what two other countries are planning to do?
He's got 0 credibility with me and anyone paying attention at this point, I find it ridiculous that Russia or Saudi Arabia would be comfortable with him being their spokesperson .... in other words ... he's making this up ... like usual.

Let the hate flow

So higher oil and gas prices help everyone, even tesla-- thank you russia and saudi.

In the short term there are a lot of jobs across America that rely on oil production. The government doesn’t want to add those people to unemployment rolls at the moment

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Eloquently said. I think not everyone is suited to this type of forum, ourselves included. We are just getting ready to retire this year, late fifties, enjoy polite discussion and have enjoyed recounting our journey to our Tesla purchase. The forum has definetly changed over the last couple years and rude rhetoric is now the norm and most seem fine with it. As you said, the amount of support that post received is a clear signal that we are not well suited to this medium. And on that note we’ll back away from regular use of this board. Still, it’s a great board with lots of great information and some of the most intelligent people we haven’t met.

Wishing everyone good health and years of happy Tesla experiences....now go wash your hands.

It's just a different way of thinking about communication. These guys have been doing this non-stop since 2003, you're forced to get thick skinned when being ripped to shreds 24/7(at least your online persona). Don't take it personally, if one of these guys got spoken to in this fashion face-to-face, they'd be crying on the floor for a half hour.

And clearly they actually mean well, it's just the new version of meaning well.

 

[printf42]

For reasons stated Tesla should not raise prices during pandemic.

Marginal cash from raising prices is insignificant. PR hit could be very significant.

1. Release autopilot in city streets.
2. Double FSD price, or triple, quadruple..., or 10x.
3. Problem solved.

 

[UncaNed]

I’m just unable to make the math work in my favor with volatility this high. But in fairness this level of volatility is entirely unprecedented.

I’m targeting options that are bottoming out given IV holding a lower baseline, such as next week 600s purchased yesterday at 5 min to close. A further 5%+ drop in Tesla sp will cause the options to hold value due to increase in IV. This protects me to snipe at the upswing, but I’m also targeting option contract values Well above max pain to avoid ever entering the money.

My maths show I could lose 30% if I execute poorly and also everything stacks up against me, but returns above 500% if I catch the predicted upward movement to max pain.

Wouldn't the odds be better buying 3 APR 20 call options? Only since they are 1/10th the price... even though more of a very long shot 'cause the TSLA has to jump tomorrow for this to work?? You are talking about buying calls, right?

I really appreciate when you guys share things with us new options traders... Though I guess this is supposed to be in the Options trading thread. That being said, I mostly stick with the longest expiring LEAPS I can buy to avoid expiration.

Most of the people being laid off now are because their employers had to shut down because of the spread of CV. That's as good as a fact. Now I'm going to give you my opinion and suggest the percentage of people laid off due to CV is around 90%. While a few mom and pop operations who were thinking of closing anyway will decide this is as good of a time as any, ~90% will re-open. While it's true that the economy could totally collapse and screw everyone, reputable economists are not expecting this.

In my 30+ years investing, I've seen a lot of people with a tendency to predict doom and gloom, economic collapse, the bankruptcy of the Federal Government, the collapse of the dollar, WWIII, etc. to know that this is normal human fear, fear of losing the few assets they have, fear that is not normally reflected in reality. People who believe such things are not investors in the economy and tend to never make much money or get very far ahead.

Meanwhile, the billionaires of the world snatch up the cheap stocks and become worth even more while the regular peons are forced to continue working to support their existence. This is how it's always been. You can claim things are different "this time around" and my only words to you are "good luck", for the sake of humanity I hope you're wrong.

That said, there is probably at least one more re-testing of market lows before things get back to normal.

AH, but you don't need to be a billionaire to buy a few cheap stocks on the downturn. Even a poorer blue collar worker with the reasonable sense to save up so they can seize the occasional opportunity to start building up assets can eventually play the game with the big boys. This is why I think that basic investing should be taught to the kind of underprivileged students who otherwise get shunted off to low paying "vocational" high school classes... Primary school education flaws being a personal pet peeve of mine.

 

[StealthP3D]

I wonder if there will open up some opportunities for acquisitions by Tesla. Businesses that normally wouldn't be for sale. Although Tesla's cash needs probably take priority?

Tesla buys every business they can when they see it as a strategic advantage (and none that they don't). Unlike many other companies, they don't buy a business simply to add on more revenue or growth and become bigger. The fact of the matter is, there are very few businesses out there that would add value to Tesla (for the price they would have to pay). Tesla creates value, they don't try to buy value.

When they see a business that will help them create value, they buy it.

 

[X Fan]

Most is the optimistic way of saying a certain unknown percentage. Some (many) businesses are collapsing and will collapse as a result of the recent downturn and its inevitable aftermath (just a few posts up someone was positing that Tesla's potential collapse, as improbable as it may be, should be a factor in deciding whether to hold or get out; not all businesses have Tesla's financial fortitude and potential, in fact many businesses were barely hanging on before this thing started). So while some of the people claiming unemployment now will have a job to return to after some as-of-yet undetermined duration, some will not. And if we think of the former as a percentage of the overall extra number of claims these days, then the logical conclusion is that the number of people in the latter category also went up, by a lot. So in a few months you'll have the situation of many people simultaneously looking for work, and many businesses barely clinging on and not in the mood to hire people. Which means "the market" is being overly optimistic about the status quo.

I agree with your post.

There will be fallout throughout the business world with in particular restaurants, hospitality groups and real estate investors closing/bankrupt. Airline groups and other strategic companies (ie Boeing) may be partially nationalized.

If Folks don’t pay rents, landlords don’t get paid, lenders don’t get paid (most real estate properties are financed to juice up returns on equity). Even if things stabilize, folks will be reticent to travel for quite some time (although I did read that cruise bookings are up for 2021). i.e.: We have football/basketball tickets for a major University in NC and have decided not to attend until there is a vaccine on the market. There will be many like us.

Another example: we just sold our Charlotte area home (left the Tesla charger since the new owners saw my X and now want to buy one).

The buyers took out a jumbo loan a month ago and were advised that theirs is the last one that will be financed for a while in the market since the “jumbo loan market has seized up”. We closed today just under the wire.

Adding trillions of new debt plus the probable institution of a national health care program will necessitate higher taxes downstream.

Those factors along with other items known and currently unforeseen will ensure that investor returns will be hindered going forward.

 

[EVNow]

Release autopilot in city streets.

Easier said than done.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Oil skyrocketing on this nonsense "deal" supposedly reached between Russia and MBS. Two great things from this:

1) Great backdrop for TSLA moving up on positive deliveries. A lot of algos see low oil as a hindrance to Tesla.

2) Less argument for a bailout of a dying US industry.

 

[Rarity]

Oil skyrocketing on this nonsense "deal" supposedly reached between Russia and MBS.

Some perspective on this. Oil has increased 25% today. But it went from $20/bbl to $25/bbl. At $25/bbl, everybody goes bankrupt eventually (and most very quickly).