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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Agree. Can't see that happening any time soon. Even "summon" acts like a special needs roomba with emotional problems IMHO.
I'm not trading but the platform seems ok right now. I have found that it suddenly hates Edge but works fine in Chrome.
Smart money has been on a nasty, but fairly short recession.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I understand that the option to profit from downturns is available to everyone alike (I'm a retired blue-collar worker) but the gist of what I was saying is that those with less money tend to be more fearful than billionaires. It's a mindset. Most billionaires didn't get to where they are by believing the economy was going to hell in a handbasket. The same is true of most multi-millionaires. Swimming against the current is best left to those who are good at it. Like salmon. People are not salmon.
I had CNBC on and got lucky with the preTweet info. First time I ever bought oil. Ewww. Even though it was a short term hold it was disgusting, but I did turn it into more dry powder to put into TSLA.
OK, I won't say that but how about this...
You’re currently using $0.00 of Gold buying power. In order to downgrade, $0.00 must be repaid by depositing cash or selling stocks.
Singer3000
Member
I appear to be back?
So where’s TSLA going. Today is that day in the quarter when everyone here likes to look in the rear view mirror at deliveries just achieved. But to look forwards, first a macro perspective:
The British Chamber of Commerce represents 75,000 British businesses, ranging from small start-ups to multinationals. Given the global nature of the pandemic and it’s economic effects, its members should be a reasonable proxy for OECD economies. Perhaps European friends here have similar info from their own countries?
Anyway the BCC has just released a survey of its members:
Pretty grim stuff. The FTSE All Share, which captures even very small UK listed stocks retreated to a 21st century low, which on this data does not look an overreaction.
So is there good news? It seems that for now there’s a bifurcation emerging between the prospects of Investment Grade companies and everyone else. Off the back of the US Congressional package, last week 49 companies raised $107bn of bonds, the biggest weekly raise on record. Yay to them, more buybacks in election year.
But we do have to set this against the prospects for small and medium business, non IG large caps, the self employed etc... I’m sure by now you’ve all seen the cliff edge graphic on the record jobless claims last week for the US. And more bad news on that front today. This is being repeated everywhere I’ve looked around the world. A global tidal wave of newly unemployed.
So who are the macro bulls? Excluding the deluded that still think “this is a flu”, they are presumably those that see: a very rapid recovery from the health crisis allowing a swift end to the lockdowns globally, a sharp V recovery without any lasting impact on the underlying economy, no lasting negative geopolitical effects and an inflationary period for assets from the government intervention (presumably without price inflation).
The macro bears are those that see something going wrong with any of that.
No one here is going to add anything of value to the debate on the likely length of lockdowns (or more pertinently the severity and frequency of any future lockdowns beyond this period). For Tesla, this is pertinent from a production angle. I have a view, I suspect it doesn’t chime with many here, given the waves of Dislikes I received early last month when I suggested that Fremont was at risk of temporary shutdown.
As for whether there’s a V Shaped recovery and a benign impact on the underlying economy, I hope some of the data above sheds light. The answer to this question is pertinent for Tesla’s demand, given they sell highly visible luxury, depreciating products into what was already a contracting market overall for autos. No doubt there are many that still think the macros don’t matter for demand for Tesla. We’ll get a clue the first week of July. But it’s not until October and January 2021 when you’re really see if there’s a V shape or L. What happens in Q1 is really of no relevance at all, beyond showing how strained (or not) the delivery network was.
Little talked about is the knock on geopolitical consequences from this crisis. And it’s here that in my view the tail risk to Tesla has fattened a little. I’m not talking about rising instability in the Persian Gulf, the increasingly insolvent financial system in China, the sudden precariousness of Putin’s position or the possible fragmentation of the Eurozone, although these all give me the sweats to varying degrees.
More directly relevant to Tesla is the quite marked increase in anti Chinese sentiment from Western politicians, combined with the nationalist fervour in China, whipped up by anti foreigner rhetoric and policies from Xi Jinping and his proxies. I still don’t think it’s likely that Tesla Shanghai is expropriated in the foreseeable timeline. But I no longer think it’s impossible, because if there’s one thing that I’d be confident putting money on right now, it’s that we’re heading for what we may as well call a Cold War between the West and Communist China, with relations arguably heading to their worst point than at any time since Nixon’s visit.
No doubt you think this is crazy talk. But I said many things about a month or two ago that I was derided for and look where we are. Indices down +30%, TSLA down by double that, unemployment soaring, Western democracies imposing extraordinary peace time restrictions on liberty, hospitals in global cities performing battlefield triage and leaving patients untreated to die, the Western world adopting MMT without a second thought, global travel essentially shut etc... I may not have predicted all of those details exactly but if you were listening I gave the gist.
So why am I still holding Tesla shares in my retirement account (as well as small amounts of other equities)? Because I suspect that Tesla is sufficiently nimble to manage all of this if it has to, it’s product pipeline is compelling, it’s on the right side of history and quite a lot of froth has already been blown off valuations.
What’s my re-entry price for more medium term holdings? I don’t know yet but for TSLA it’s not $480 and it’s not at these prices for the indices either. Lots of technical people here seem confident that $350ish is a very solid floor for TSLA. Maybe it is. But it really depends on whether you see indices at a higher or lower price in 365 days than today. And to answer that, you need to spend a lot of time understanding that thing that we’re not supposed to talk about here...
So where’s TSLA going. Today is that day in the quarter when everyone here likes to look in the rear view mirror at deliveries just achieved. But to look forwards, first a macro perspective:
The British Chamber of Commerce represents 75,000 British businesses, ranging from small start-ups to multinationals. Given the global nature of the pandemic and it’s economic effects, its members should be a reasonable proxy for OECD economies. Perhaps European friends here have similar info from their own countries?
Anyway the BCC has just released a survey of its members:
- The majority of firms (62 per cent) have three months’ cash in reserve or less
- 18 per cent reported less than a month’s worth of cash in reserve, while 44 per cent reported only 1 to 3 months’ worth of cash in reserve. Only 6 per cent of respondents reported over 12 months’ worth of cash in reserve.
- Almost half of respondents (44 per cent) expect to furlough at least 50% of workforce in the next week.
Pretty grim stuff. The FTSE All Share, which captures even very small UK listed stocks retreated to a 21st century low, which on this data does not look an overreaction.
So is there good news? It seems that for now there’s a bifurcation emerging between the prospects of Investment Grade companies and everyone else. Off the back of the US Congressional package, last week 49 companies raised $107bn of bonds, the biggest weekly raise on record. Yay to them, more buybacks in election year.
But we do have to set this against the prospects for small and medium business, non IG large caps, the self employed etc... I’m sure by now you’ve all seen the cliff edge graphic on the record jobless claims last week for the US. And more bad news on that front today. This is being repeated everywhere I’ve looked around the world. A global tidal wave of newly unemployed.
So who are the macro bulls? Excluding the deluded that still think “this is a flu”, they are presumably those that see: a very rapid recovery from the health crisis allowing a swift end to the lockdowns globally, a sharp V recovery without any lasting impact on the underlying economy, no lasting negative geopolitical effects and an inflationary period for assets from the government intervention (presumably without price inflation).
The macro bears are those that see something going wrong with any of that.
No one here is going to add anything of value to the debate on the likely length of lockdowns (or more pertinently the severity and frequency of any future lockdowns beyond this period). For Tesla, this is pertinent from a production angle. I have a view, I suspect it doesn’t chime with many here, given the waves of Dislikes I received early last month when I suggested that Fremont was at risk of temporary shutdown.
As for whether there’s a V Shaped recovery and a benign impact on the underlying economy, I hope some of the data above sheds light. The answer to this question is pertinent for Tesla’s demand, given they sell highly visible luxury, depreciating products into what was already a contracting market overall for autos. No doubt there are many that still think the macros don’t matter for demand for Tesla. We’ll get a clue the first week of July. But it’s not until October and January 2021 when you’re really see if there’s a V shape or L. What happens in Q1 is really of no relevance at all, beyond showing how strained (or not) the delivery network was.
Little talked about is the knock on geopolitical consequences from this crisis. And it’s here that in my view the tail risk to Tesla has fattened a little. I’m not talking about rising instability in the Persian Gulf, the increasingly insolvent financial system in China, the sudden precariousness of Putin’s position or the possible fragmentation of the Eurozone, although these all give me the sweats to varying degrees.
More directly relevant to Tesla is the quite marked increase in anti Chinese sentiment from Western politicians, combined with the nationalist fervour in China, whipped up by anti foreigner rhetoric and policies from Xi Jinping and his proxies. I still don’t think it’s likely that Tesla Shanghai is expropriated in the foreseeable timeline. But I no longer think it’s impossible, because if there’s one thing that I’d be confident putting money on right now, it’s that we’re heading for what we may as well call a Cold War between the West and Communist China, with relations arguably heading to their worst point than at any time since Nixon’s visit.
No doubt you think this is crazy talk. But I said many things about a month or two ago that I was derided for and look where we are. Indices down +30%, TSLA down by double that, unemployment soaring, Western democracies imposing extraordinary peace time restrictions on liberty, hospitals in global cities performing battlefield triage and leaving patients untreated to die, the Western world adopting MMT without a second thought, global travel essentially shut etc... I may not have predicted all of those details exactly but if you were listening I gave the gist.
So why am I still holding Tesla shares in my retirement account (as well as small amounts of other equities)? Because I suspect that Tesla is sufficiently nimble to manage all of this if it has to, it’s product pipeline is compelling, it’s on the right side of history and quite a lot of froth has already been blown off valuations.
What’s my re-entry price for more medium term holdings? I don’t know yet but for TSLA it’s not $480 and it’s not at these prices for the indices either. Lots of technical people here seem confident that $350ish is a very solid floor for TSLA. Maybe it is. But it really depends on whether you see indices at a higher or lower price in 365 days than today. And to answer that, you need to spend a lot of time understanding that thing that we’re not supposed to talk about here...
It's more complicated than just that. Most people only have access to a very limited set of index funds in their 401ks, and most people only have 401ks and of those I'd say a majority are in set it and forget it targeted retirement funds and have no idea what they are investing in. The standard advice, right or wrong is to do nothing when downturns happen.I understand that the option to profit from downturns is available to everyone alike (I'm a retired blue-collar worker) but the gist of what I was saying is that those with less money tend to be more fearful than billionaires. It's a mindset. Most billionaires didn't get to where they are by believing the economy was going to hell in a handbasket. The same is true of most multi-millionaires. Swimming against the current is best left to those who are good at it. Like salmon. People are not salmon.
Also, if you aren't independently wealthy you can't neccesarily afford to buy stocks in a downturn at the very time when your job security is lowest. I've in a far better positon thant most people but even I have had to factor in the potential of job loss (current gig is stable but still) into my plan. If I didn't have to worry about my job I'd probably be taking cash advances against all of my CCs to invest.
Yup, can confirm, learned it the hard way a long time ago
The media is correctly reporting this one.
The 6+ million does not include self-employed,.
Moreover, even next week's new claims data won't fully reflect self-employed claims data.
CARES Act wasn't signed until March 27 - last Friday. Today's number are last week's claims (technically, March 21 through March 28).
Even through yesterday, most states haven't been accepting self-employed claims as they are still figuring out details. See Unemployment benefits for gig and self-employed workers stalled by confusion, delays.
Krugerrand
Meow
Doing my very best considering my existential dilemma:
Don’t share the marshmallows because, duh.
Share the marshmallows because, duh.
Freely replace marshmallows with just about anything else/any other situation. In fact this forum fights for and against marshmallow sharing every single day.
I want TSLA to drop to get more shares. I want TSLA to rise to crush shorts. I want Ford to die because they clearly aren’t on board to slowing climate change, but all those innocent workers. I want Ford to survive because Tesla can’t transition us fast enough and because innocent workers. Coffee so yummy, but caffeine makes my hear race. It’s endless.
And so ends today’s froo-froo zen session.
P.S. Who wants my marshmallows, I don’t really like them all that much. I prefer hot dogs made from the scraps that fall on the factory floor and are swept up and molded into cute little weiners.
Oh, would you look at TSLA’s relative strength. Almost like everyone is holding their breath waiting for Q1 numbers.
Sure hope the macro's hold up today because until we get that P/D report, it's obvious the stock is going to face heavy selling manipulation to feed on the fear of what could be in it. I'd say if we don't get it after close or before open tomorrow, the stock is going below 450 due to heavy selling pressure/manipulation.
Who in their right mind would ever do something like this?
larmor
Active Member
Agreed but apparently the government does not want to incentivize domestic solar cell production to get those workers in oil ( and coal) industries onto a pathway of future growth....
Krugerrand
Meow
I actually contend that long term this is a good thing. Circumstances that cause the weak to die (for lack of a better word and not without empathy for the trials many are facing and will face) makes the whole stronger. This is not a new concept. From the ashes the Phoenix rises, blah, blah. It’s like having the big, blue dump and having to admit you need something better going forward, no better time than the present.
Tesla has demonstrated the ability, time and time again, to trash what’s not working well and start fresh, coming out the other end stronger and more resilient for it. It’s so often complained about by people who are short-sighted, impatient, ignorant or other.
But look at you all now realizing Tesla/Elon knew exactly what they were doing all along and can ride this puppy out while CONTINUING to expand their business. It’s comical, actually. And anyone with any doubt on that front; shame on you. Give your head a shake. Have a little conviction in what you know to be true and quit being sucked in by the malicious or ignorant.
You will hear stories in your circle of people claiming that this time in history was a wake up call for them, that it changed their lives for the better, that it led to opportunities they’d not noticed before etc... Yep, we’ll have the usual group of people feeling sorry for themselves, who’ll continue making the same mistakes that got them to this point in the first place. I’ll feel sympathy for the ones who’ve really tried and worked hard; the rest can have one of my marshmallows.
I lied. This in fact is another zen lesson. Pick yourselves up and get busy or don’t. Your choice.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
What kind of emphasis do we think the market will put on deliveries vs. 1Q19? We're all focusing on actual vs. estimates, but year-over-year should be glorious regardless, no? I guess thinking the press would consider taking that angle is foolish.
It isn't that different from using margin, and people don't seem to have a fit about using margin. (In some cases promotional CC advances have a lower interest rate than margin, at least for the first year.)
In some ways it is better/safer than margin, as you can't get margin called when the value of your portfolio goes down.
Krugerrand
Meow
Eloquently said. I think not everyone is suited to this type of forum, ourselves included. We are just getting ready to retire this year, late fifties, enjoy polite discussion and have enjoyed recounting our journey to our Tesla purchase. The forum has definetly changed over the last couple years and rude rhetoric is now the norm and most seem fine with it. As you said, the amount of support that post received is a clear signal that we are not well suited to this medium. And on that note we’ll back away from regular use of this board. Still, it’s a great board with lots of great information and some of the most intelligent people we haven’t
Wishing everyone good health and years of happy Tesla experiences....now go wash your hands.
I totally understand what you’re saying and you need to do what fits you best. I often don’t post for days on end. There’s just nothing I’ve got say, but I still read the forum to gain insight on Tesla, TSLA, world events and many of the people here. Then I’ll go on a spree of verbal diarrhea and I really don’t care what anyone thinks because—island for me in the end.
You may be too kind, sensitive or gentile for most Internet forums. That’s not a knock. Be you, do you. Everyone else gets a marshmallow.
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