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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I do NOT expect short term demand problems. In this pandemic, the well-paid white-collar worker who is the target market of a $50K Model 3 or a $55K Model Y is now likely working from home, but did NOT lose their job. This is the same demographic from which Tesla attracts Camry buyers, because they know that total cost of ownership (TCO) is the appropriate price to compare when new car shopping.

Further, if there is any SUPPLY constraints (which seems inevitable with 43 fewer days of production at Fremont in Q2), then Tesla will have the luxury of filling orders first that include FSD. There is already anecdotal evidence that Tesla was prioritizing FSD orders in the final days of 2020Q1, after the Fremont shutdown on Mar 24.

Let me restate that because it's important: Priority delivery going forward will be for orders with the highest margin software products: the $7K FSD option.

Elon recently said to expect a price increase for FSD on July 1st, so that very likely means deferred revenue for 'Stop-on-Traffic-Lights' FSD features will increase GAAP revenue in 2020Q2.

Cheers!
I would agree with this - look on any Facebook Tesla group and there are people daily stating they're taking deliveries of Model 3 and Y. My company (white collar, financial services firm) has stated they are not laying off any people at this point and will focus on cutting expenses (travel reduced to zero, freezing new hires, etc). People will continue to buy cars as it's not illegal to drive your new car/Tesla.

While I also agree that Tesla will deliver higher margin cars at this point in time, the one item I'm struggling with is the FSD prices increases for incremental benefit. I do not think stopping at traffic lights and stop signs is worth another $1k. We're getting to a point where I would either want highway autopilot for long trips, or full self driving in 98% of places. Said another way, if TSLA places a $2k value on basic autopilot, and another $7k on full self-driving, at what point do consumers say its too expensive for incomplete FSD. I'm not sure if anyone has data on this, but it would be great to see if the % of FSD buyers changes with price increases or how it has generally trended over time.
 
While I also agree that Tesla will deliver higher margin cars at this point in time, the one item I'm struggling with is the FSD prices increases for incremental benefit. I do not think stopping at traffic lights and stop signs is worth another $1k. We're getting to a point where I would either want highway autopilot for long trips, or full self driving in 98% of places. Said another way, if TSLA places a $2k value on basic autopilot, and another $7k on full self-driving, at what point do consumers say its too expensive for incomplete FSD. I'm not sure if anyone has data on this, but it would be great to see if the % of FSD buyers changes with price increases or how it has generally trended over time.

Agreed. I posted this on the AP forum. It seems FSD will be going up and, based on tweet other day, AP may be getting a discount.

I do not have AP on my 2018 Model 3.
For AP it’s $3k and FSD is another $7k.
As other income will likely be needed in Q2 my suggestion is this.

1. Discount AP to $2k or whatever.
2. If one is like me and doesn’t have AP, make a buy FSD get AP for free deal. $7k all in instead of the current $10k.
3. Please allow it to be tied to the person and not the car. I’ll probably get a Model Y in Q2, then maybe swap the M3 with a plaid S a year later, then maybe swap the Y with a Cybertruck a couple years after that. There’s zero incentive for me to get FSD with the current setup, at any price.

Please make it easier for me to feed the beast in Q2.
 
3. Please allow it to be tied to the person and not the car. I’ll probably get a Model Y in Q2, then maybe swap the M3 with a plaid S a year later, then maybe swap the Y with a Cybertruck a couple years after that.

I don't think that will ever happen, and if it did a "person" FSD license would need to cost at least twice as much. (And then people would want it to be transferable, which after a while then there would be so many licenses that Tesla would hardly ever sell another one.)

Since Tesla doesn't discount FSD, in theory if you add FSD to your car it increases the value by almost the same amount. So when you trade it in you get that value back to go towards your next Tesla.

There’s zero incentive for me to get FSD with the current setup, at any price.

The incentives are two fold:
  1. To get access to the additional features: Smart Summon, NOA, etc.
  2. To get it at the current price before it goes up. (You are getting a discount from the full price because it is not yet feature complete.)
 
I don't think that will ever happen, and if it did a "person" FSD license would need to cost at least twice as much. (And then people would want it to be transferable, which after a while then there would be so many licenses that Tesla would hardly ever sell another one.)

Since Tesla doesn't discount FSD, in theory if you add FSD to your car it increases the value by almost the same amount. So when you trade it in you get that value back to go towards your next Tesla.



The incentives are two fold:
  1. To get access to the additional features: Smart Summon, NOA, etc.
  2. To get it at the current price before it goes up. (You are getting a discount from the full price because it is not yet feature complete.)

All good points. Does how much does Tesla value FSD when trading in a car? I always figured it was nearly worthless as for them it's hitting a button to add or remove it.
 
Agreed. I posted this on the AP forum. It seems FSD will be going up and, based on tweet other day, AP may be getting a discount.

I do not have AP on my 2018 Model 3.
For AP it’s $3k and FSD is another $7k.
As other income will likely be needed in Q2 my suggestion is this.

1. Discount AP to $2k or whatever.
2. If one is like me and doesn’t have AP, make a buy FSD get AP for free deal. $7k all in instead of the current $10k.
3. Please allow it to be tied to the person and not the car. I’ll probably get a Model Y in Q2, then maybe swap the M3 with a plaid S a year later, then maybe swap the Y with a Cybertruck a couple years after that. There’s zero incentive for me to get FSD with the current setup, at any price.

Please make it easier for me to feed the beast in Q2.
Tied to the person for a certain period of time or what?

I would say tie it to the person prior to FSD being a thing and then tie to the car once FSD becomes a thing. Feel bad for those who bought FSD since 5 years ago and still have yet to see it come to fruition. Pre ordering this feature should have a signature edition moniker because it's pretty risky. The chance of not getting anything in return for that money is higher than buying into the stock when Tesla was bleeding money.
 
All good points. Does how much does Tesla value FSD when trading in a car? I always figured it was nearly worthless as for them it's hitting a button to add or remove it.

I don't know how they value it but you can look at this video for one example of a trade-in:


$55,990 original cost with a trade-in value of $48,880 after 6 months/5,000 miles. ($7,110 of depreciation, so they obviously don't value FSD as nearly worthless.)
 
MMD acts as an enthusiasm damper to curb buying volume for the day.
Once volume has dried up around noon, the real manipulation begins
Obviously this only works when buying pressure is low and close to expiry, like today. Well, today is not low low but it's their only chance before this gets out of hand. Most bang for their buck.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Artful Dodger
The importance of verifying a person's trade yourself.

I know there are a few of you who follows wallstreetbets on reddit and I remember some of the actions of the user wsbgod who went for 5 figures to 7 figures within a few short months got posted here during the height.

Well, turns out, everyone who got swayed by that got scammed. It is a huge controversie right now as people are discovering the facts between wsbgods and jartke (a mod, what better way to gain credential than to get verified by a mod who wrote a book about wallstreetbets, but turns out to be wsbgod)

As someone who is also in the business of predicting the future, here are some hints to distinguish scammers vs fraudsters.

The easiest tell and "red flag" I should say is that a scammer will post some big result only after an event that generated money. Some might have made some prediction before the date of an event, but if you track what happens after, they don't pan out. But somehow, they magically made so much money on some "hidden" trade they never announced. The real ones you should follow are those who made the prediction before the date that the prediction should happen. As human, we get swept away by the flashy winners as it takes so much more work to track people's prediction and having to verify them time after time once the date expires.

Verify people's trade with the timestamp of their post. I can't stress how important this is. Let's again take wsbgod's example. While everyone was applauding his grandeur, if you went ahead and look at the ticker for the option bet he posted, you'd see that the trade of that size never went through and if it did. It often turn out to be a pathetic size.
 
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