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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Many of us invested in Tesla to support the mission, part of the reason we loaded when the stock price dipped below 200.
It's exactly this. Things are never black and white. I work in primary health care and although I'm in am ambulatory clinic, I had to get tested recently due to 2 peers being COVID-positive. Trace contacts made, and it's confirmed not to have spread, and I'm still seeing patients. Grocery store workers are exposed to all sorts of people as well throughout the day, so what makes some industries subject to full closure and some not?

Meanwhile, in Brampton, Ontario, and in a meat-packing plant in Alberta, there are plant closures due to confirmed clusters of infections. Society needs to understand what to watch for, when to report it, and MINIMIZE transmission. No sense waiting for a vaccine, and there's no evidence a vaccine will work entirely, as we have to grapple with the knowledge that the virus may mutate. Guidelines from government for business on how to monitor outbreaks, and require PPE, even with distance in the workplace once masks are more widely available. Let manufacturing industries with limited public contact open at a lower capacity and with a fixed staff. Monitor, and slowly open up in a measured approach. I think the public would respect this. If a cluster of outbreaks forms again, shut things in that area immediately and trace contacts. Unfortunately, this needs a cooperative public, yet there's already a risk of losing public confidence as there's a fatigue to COVID-19 isolation warnings. Outlawing or fining for certain behaviours only go so far, but if there's a plan, there's a hope, everyone can look forward. Look to see what other countries are implementing, and learn from that to apply what works and what doesn't.

Elon should use his influence to advocate such sensible, fact based solution as you stated so nicely.

Instead of lashing out and go full on conspiracy theory.
 
Elon has as much insinuated in the past he is bipolar. These kind of crises occur in the lives of many patients with this disease when they lose control possibly because they stop their meds (if they are on any) or for reasons that often you can't explain. That doesn't make them a bad person. They have an illness. Generally, they get help and get back under control and are back their old functional selves again. I am just speculating BTW.
 
I couldn't care less about his comments on stock price, or he selling his house.

He was wrong about covid 19 and instead of looking at facts and course correct he attacks the facts. That's Koch brothers' way of dealing with climate change!

If he wasn't so bone headed about this virus being just a flu he would have better prepared and less frustrated about the whole situation. Now he's lashing out. Counter productive.

First principle thinking is the jist of scientific method, where you abandon your opinion and look at facts. He leads space X and Tesla with that attitude.

Now he's clinging to his opinions and cherry picking facts. Very dangerous signals.

I wish he admit his mistakes like in the past he admitted human are under rated, where the team persuaded him not to start from the scratch with the model Y. I wish the team in Tesla can persuade him once again.

Now Elon is not on the same side with science. He needs to change side.

There is indeed really a big dissonance.

Look at these three tweets on March 19:
1. Elon Musk on Twitter
No new domestic corona cases in China

2. Elon Musk on Twitter
Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April

3. Elon Musk on Twitter
Kids are essentially immune, but elderly with existing conditions are vulnerable. Family gatherings with close contact between kids & grandparents probably most risky.

It was and still is all just a shitload of wishful thinking. China was literally locking people up in their homes, that's how they got their cases to zero. Now he's shouting 'freedom'. You can't somehow magically expect both!

Blog by a Sonoma County resident. Also the source of Elon's "Hospital Bed Occupancy" chart. Obviously a soulmate.

Petty Tyrants

The bed occupancy matters when you want to flatten the curve and make the virus die out after herd immunity is achieved. The new strategy, for good reasons, is to keep R0<1 and let the virus die out or at least keep it under control before many million people get sick, like China and South Korea demonstrated.

The set of conditions of Sonoma County that's listed in that article seems very reasonable to me and is needed to achieve just that. Elon just needs to exhibit some patience or be helpful instead of behaving like a demagogue.
 
I personally think he’s crazy like a fox. Just my opinion. I believe the Bay Area restrictions will be relaxed sooner rather than later. I live near the largest GM plant in North America and they are going back to work. Single file lines, physical distancing, masks, forehead temperature scans. Very reasonable protocols. No way Tesla is left watching the Big 3 manufacture from the sidelines. Norfolk & Way.

Elon has a loyal base that understands the product quality and the mission and isn’t going anywhere, including the oft frustrated (it’s only natural) but always HODL’ing yours truly. The next base of huge opportunity is the current truck driving southeast and Midwest. I’ll keep politics out of this and just say that Elon is doing a good job attempting to be centrist and appeal to sensibilities and not politics. That plays well where trucks are an immensely popular form of transportation, including my state of Tennessee.

I, and many others, expect a Giga Texas announcement soon with that sundae sprinkled with some Cybertruck surprises along the way.

Giga 3 is ramping up at incredible speed. Giga Berlin will be built on schedule given that construction restrictions are among the first phase of restrictions being lifted and spring/summer/fall is prime time to really expedite tasks.

Finally, for now, I respect the hell out of Cathie Wood and her macroeconomic perspective is very bullish as is her revised TSLA perspective. Check it out if you haven’t already.
 
Sir, I can read. Both English and Chinese. Also I recently moved from Seattle to San Francisco so I'm aware of the work in Washington and retire in Oregon culture. Moving a large manufacturing company is no small feat. And don't get me wrong, if anyone would do it Elon is the man who could, but moving people is a no small task. So maybe I was wrong and instead of buying his supply chain Elon is going to pay to move his employees, but I'm still betting on the former.
IF Tesla have to move the factory, they can easily hire replacements for the line workers who don’t want to move.

But there is no real reason to move the HQ and all the software people, these people want/need to stay in Bay Area to keep ahead, money alone won’t be able to move them.

IMO, what would more likely happen is to expand really fast in other GF, then gradually reduce shifts in Fremont and strip things out, making it more of a lab than real production facility.
 
My wife has been asking me to sell our stocks to take profit and then wait for it to drop to rebuy. I'm in the long camp and did not want to time the market since there is no guarantee that we can buy back at lower price.
So you can imagine her madness when we didn't sell when stock went to 960 only to see it drop to 300+ weeks later.
Yesterday, she told me to sell today. So I didn't want to sell at 860 when market opened.
Now it dropped 100 points.

On one hand, I understand her logic. On the other hand, I think it's a better strategy to hold it long term and don't just watch it daily and worry about timing it.

What your advice?
Assuming you have more than one share it's not an all or nothing proposition. Sell some percentage to make her happy and hold some for your sanity. Buy back when you can. If it keeps climbing tell her "I told you so". :D
 
But I’m deleveraging quite a bit now, and even for you folks who just own common you need to consider having a smaller percentage of your investable net worth in TSLA now.

Why? Because Elon is not just the CEO, he is the embodiment of TSLA. And we now know that he has the propensity to damage the SP by his behavior, and the next damage could be deep and permanent.

Um...nope. I’ll be adding out of ‘demand is an issue’ necessity over the next 2-4 months. My tally is 4 additional shares so far, peanuts, but that’ll climb significantly like last time. I have uber faith that people here won’t let me down.

My conviction is as high as it’s ever been. I know to the core of my being I need to hold. Can’t help you (general) to understand that now is not the time for FUD.
 
Elon is the only CEO I have ever heard that buys his own secondary stock offerings,
And repeatedly so at every offering. The antithesis of pump and dump.

At the most recent secondary, he purchased stock (about $10 millions worth) at $750 something, but now
the stock price is high, contradicts that. Something does not square, so either his state of mind is off,
Or the subtext is lost in translation, or a combination, or given the present shutdown the price is high.

I will pretend it means nothing, and assume the SEC will ignore it too. I will
Use this controversy to my advantage and buy some stock.
Someone said the SEC has too much going on right now to deal with Musk.
It could be a situation where they monitor it for any of Elon’s people trying to buy at cheaper shares, but as far as the shareholder protection goes they know who the CEO is and shareholders shouldn’t be surprised at this point. Plus it’s a stonks down moment.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Artful Dodger
Tesla cannot meet the "tremendous demand" in 2020 for its energy storage products, like the large-scale Megapack battery systems, co-founder and CEO Elon Musk said during the company's Q1 earnings call on Wednesday.

The company announced the deployment of 260 MWh of storage in the first quarter of 2020 — a 51% reduction from the 530 MWh deployed in the fourth quarter of 2019, but a 14% year-on-year increase.

Source:
'Tremendous demand for stationary storage' outstrips Tesla's 2020 supply capability, Musk says

Utility Dive provides in-depth journalism and insight into the most impactful news and trends shaping the utility industry. The newsletters and website cover topics such as smart grid, regulation and policy, demand response, generation, and more.


Edit: About the source
 
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The differences:
I'm not in charge of a multi-billion dollar company.
My actions do not have any real impact on others.
I'm not communicating to millions of followers.
I'm not repeating anti-science conspiracy theories.

Over the last few days Elon has shown himself to be less rational than I thought, and after all these years I thought I had a reasonable measure of the man. I was wrong so I needed to make adjustments. I had too much exposure to a person who has diminished themselves in my eyes. To ignore that would be foolish. I still probably have more of my net worth in TSLA than most people but I need to keep evaluating that more thoroughly.

I think it may be an autistic response happening. I occasionally go through them.
 
Elon has as much insinuated in the past he is bipolar. These kind of crises occur in the lives of many patients with this disease when they lose control possibly because they stop their meds (if they are on any) or for reasons that often you can't explain. That doesn't make them a bad person. They have an illness. Generally, they get help and get back under control and are back their old functional selves again. I am just speculating BTW.

Anyone else anxious that Elon has started to tweet a whole lot more random stuff recently? :)
Since you posted this on Feb 17, 2020 you've now moved up to casting unfounded aspersions? Not cool.

Seems your bi-polar disorder phase length is about 11 weeks. Will we hear from you again after the next Quarterly Report?

You be well in you new endeavors away from the keyboard, okay?
 
It's just not the stock price tweet. It's the whole shebang. It's everything from saying he'll sell his stuff to the freedom tweets. It left people no clarity to mull over what the stock price tweet could have meant.

He’s talked about putting all his money into Mars down the road and has put additional money into Tesla. The last few days some in social media have said he only cares about the money not the people after his virus tweets and accused him of being greedy and materialistic. Do you think that selling all his possessions is an indication of that or someone who doesn’t need much to really live on or is just focused on money? Remember he’s the CEO who sleeps on the factory floor and has pushed for EVs as a better way ahead.

I think Elon is entitled to his own opinion on opening up his factory. We know there’s a lot at stake there as well as everywhere else. He’s frustrated and he tweets in his own way. It does get his voice heard and discussed. Yes, other CEOs have been pretty quiet but have also pushed for reopening. They make statements to the press whereas Elon tweets a few lines.

He did add to his SP tweet that he’s long-term Tesla. And clearly he wants Tesla to do well on many fronts from environmental to financial success. His investment in the company is what he wants to use for Mars funding. And we know how serious he is about that.
 
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well said. I have the utmost respect for some of the posters here and I'm in no way insinuating that they have been financially harmed by Elon's tweets. I'm just taking a broader and more empathetic view here, looking at all stockholders, super bulls and what not. You know, everybody deserve a chance to make money. For the average Joe who buys Tesla. they might not know Elon Musk like we do. Maybe they did their homework and accepted the business risks. Maybe they looked at the volatility and said hey I could weather that. But, they don't expect the CEO to tank their investment by 10% with some tweets. Before the tweets, TSLA was actually outperforming the indexes (down 1% vs ~1.7% for NASDAQ) so please don't give me the multiple crap. Maybe some employees at Tesla need to sell some stock soon now that they're out of work. What I'm saying is across the spectrum, there are people actually harmed by his behavior today. For some of us, it's a matter of principle. Like Dave said in his video, it was unnecessary. Is Dave not a sensible guy? Is it too much to ask for some accountability?
True, TSLA longs will prosper beyond their wildest dream but is it acceptable to call us who temporarily (hopefully) went on strike weak longs? If we can't act on our principle, then what good is money? Isn't that how Elon function?

To me it’s debatable if buying some stock in a company and watching other people toil at building it, is in fact ‘work’.

While I’ll definitely give work credit to those who’ve done copious amounts of mathematics and independent research, many I believe are simply riding the coattails of others and THAT is one big reason why they are in and out of the stock on the drop of a tweet and playing options for a quick buck.

Now for those that just had their blood pressure rise on my last paragraph — don’t try and shove the shoe on your foot if it doesn’t fit.

If the shoe does fit then have the good sense to own it and wear the shoe proudly. If you can’t manage that pride, then consider changing who you are as a person so you can be proud of yourself.

There are other posters here who inherently know that the tighter you hold onto money, the harder it becomes to hold. That you in fact have to care less about money to attract more money. I know, it sounds all froo-froo but I’m telling you that’s how it works.

I consider every penny over my initial investment to be free money. And since nothing is really free in life, I must pay for that money by going through a few trials and tribulations along the way that is meant to test my metal, my convictions, my instincts; a tweet now and again, a coordinated assault by media, short sellers and the like, a pandemic and economic downturn, a SEC lawsuit, etc...

Just image the trials and tribulations Elon and his employees have had to go through to stick it out. They’re the ones taking the brunt of everything.

The problem is you (general) can’t actually imagine what it’s like to walk in Elon’s shoes, but you sure know how to come to a quick judgement in the moment as if you did know.

I can’t quite grasp it even though my whole life I’ve had people tell me what I can’t do and I’ve had to slug my way through to prove they were full of it. Now I just nod and smile when I’m told it can’t be done, doing for my own benefit and knowing in due course they’ll be eating a replica of Dodger’s hat.
 
He’s talked about putting all his money into Mars down the road and has put additional money into Tesla. The last few days some in social media have said he only cares about the money not the people after his virus tweets and accused him of being greedy and materialistic. Do you think that selling all his possessions is an indication of that or someone who doesn’t need much to really live on or is just focused on money? Remember he’s the CEO who sleeps on the factory floor and has pushed for EVs as a better way ahead.

I think Elon is entitled to his own opinion on opening up his factory. We know there’s a lot at stake there as well as everywhere else. He’s frustrated and he tweets in his own way. It does get his voice heard and discussed. Yes, other CEOs have been pretty quiet but have also pushed for reopening. They make statements to the press whereas Elon tweets a few lines.

He did add to his SP tweet that he’s long-term Tesla. And clearly he wants Tesla to do well on many fronts from environmental to financial success. His investment in the company is what he wants to use for Mars funding. And we know how serious he is about that.
I guess people can interpret his tweets differently. To me, I sensed an underlying destructive and frustrating tone. Coupled with a single tweet about the stock price and it got ugly real quick.
 
Tesla cannot meet the "tremendous demand" in 2020 for its energy storage products, like the large-scale Megapack battery systems, co-founder and CEO Elon Musk said during the company's Q1 earnings call on Wednesday.

The company announced the deployment of 260 MWh of storage in the first quarter of 2020 — a 51% reduction from the 530 MWh deployed in the fourth quarter of 2019, but a 14% year-on-year increase.

'Tremendous demand for stationary storage' outstrips Tesla's 2020 supply capability, Musk says

Hmm, what would Q2 look like with Nevada making storage nearly exclusively, Fremont mostly offline, and Shanghai online? Anyone able to model that?
 
The set of conditions of Sonoma County that's listed in that article seems very reasonable to me and is needed to achieve just that. Elon just needs to exhibit some patience or be helpful instead of behaving like a demagogue.

Really? And what is your time estimate for when those conditions will be achieved? If you don’t know, what's your rationale for calling them reasonable?