Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Highway2Heel]

Right now, if production starts back on June 1 at Fremont, Tesla (With the capital raise that was maligned by some at the time) will be “exactly” where it would have been without a shutdown and without the capital raise. The shutdown will be 10 weeks on June 1 and I’m estimating that Tesla can match GM’s burn rate of $200M per week with the belt tightening done.

I put “exactly” in quotes because I’m aware of a lot of caveats that apply to suppliers now, along with future unknowns but those caveats will affect ICE much more than Tesla. And, we haven’t even scratched the surface of how quickly TE will take off when the higher costs of the utility world accelerate that disaggregation through better, greener, more efficient and more cost effective distributed energy approaches.

 

[SMAlset]

And yet one of the common complaints here in Washington State is about the number of people selling their homes in California and driving up the price of homes up here.

Hey you want to stay there and pay outrageous prices for homes. High taxes etc. More power to you.

Me I am just going to sit back and smile looking at this...View attachment 538109

Looks like a foggy view from the valleys here without all the diverse cities, towns, sites to be close enough to drive to. A lot of people here invested wisely in companies they worked at or they invested in others in the tech/bio/whatever field and did well for themselves. So they have a comfortable life here and great view, great year-round weather and the rest. As for real estate, timing is everything. We could up and move for a cheaper home or less in taxes but know we’d be selling out for that and regret it in the end. Have several friends who sold and moved out of state for family, work or retirement reasons and they have occasionally told us they wish they hadn’t but now can’t afford to move back. People adjust and make due wherever they live and hopefully live a happy life but most still dream of living in California.

 

[SMAlset]

I went through a phase where I sold all my possessions too. Digitized all the stuff with memories and burnt most of them.

I am just surprised Elon is going through this phase now instead of earlier in his life. I believe steve jobs went through this as well at some point and then ended up in India.

My conclusion after the whole thing is that you do need to keep one house as renting sounds nice but is more troublesome than owning your own place.. But only if you are a productive person.

I don’t think in his case it’s a matter of finding himself as I see it. He knows who he is and what he wants to accomplish in life. Success in his business ventures has enabled him to reach for the stars, literally. Big dreams, helping make the world a better place and the talent, luck and hard work to make it happen.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Right now, if production starts back on June 1 at Fremont,

Surely nobody is expecting it to take that long now? I'm not expecting it to open on monday, but I'd be very surprised if its more than a week beyond that. Other US car factories in other states are opening, so california looks like getting some very anti-business PR over the next few days if they dont do something soon.

 

[S3XY]

I didn't see this posted earlier, definitely may have missed it as it's old news (April 22, 2020) but :
U.S. Patent Office Rules In Favor Of Nikola In Lawsuit Against Tesla Semi - Tesla Motors Club
maybe also relevant?

One word, "Cyber-semi" . Cuts production costs and averts the patent issue.

 

[woof]

I’m definitely not going to need an island greeter, but I am going to need a water boy to serve the participants in my new anger management classes.

Was that an invitation?

Woof!

Hi!

Dang! If I get any calmer I’m going to be comatose.

Comatose is the feline way.

Has anyone else noticed the recent transformation of @Krugerrand from Rumpus Cat to Old Deuteronomy? I like it.

 

[XHabjab]

Way ahead.

But regardless, I take your point that there is a danger that in looking at every new piece of data, that an investor will overreact.

On the other hand, buying an individual stock and then forgetting about it, strikes me as beyond foolish. The world changes. Exactly how often an individual investment needs to be reconsidered is debatable, but “regularly” seems correct to me.

I believe that strategy is included in the analysis and can be found on the graph.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Elon added 114,000 twitter followers in the last 24hrs.

In the 24hrs prior to that, he added 5,000 followers.

Obviously something about his actions Friday has appealed to people, I'm guessing the open-the-economy rebel crowd... who happen to love pickups and american manufacturing. (and probably think american rockets are OK)

That's not how social media works though. Controversy and weirdness drives following way more than agreement.

 

[woof]

To those ragging on Elon...have you never had a loved one go through pregnancy? The hormones, the mood swings, the fear, dread and joy all within five minutes? Sympathetic Pregnancy. Soon it'll be contractions..time to squeeze someones hand and work through it.

Soon it will all be a faded memory, and a little bundle of $TSLA joy puking on your shoulder. Oh, and no sleep. Bliss.

 

[feigen66]

Like many investors, we care about Elon's mental state.
Many people questions whether Elon goes insane. Let me assure you, he isn't.
He is childish, but not insane.

Is he still following his first principle thinking, I believe he still is.
Please allow me to layout, my own speculation, the progression of his mental state because his twitters are very horrible way to gauge his mind.

* Elon has been highly suspect health experts opinions due to his near death experience at Stanford Hospital:
Elon Musk on Twitter

If you have experienced near death due to misdiagnosed, no question in your mind you would start to question medical experts and ask for "second opinions".

* Elon looked at CDC and WHO chart at the beginning, and he has been studying how COVID progress in China. He found wide range of numbers.
Elon Musk on Twitter

That plants a seed in his mind that data is not trustworthy.

* While remaining skeptical, Elon offerer CPAP machines to the hospital in need:
Elon Musk on Twitter

We knew how that ended. Elon faced backslah by MSM stating that he sent out fake ventilator
Elon Musk on Twitter

This put him on collision course with Newsom because the news is coming from the Governor office.
Elon Musk on Twitter

* He also pledged safety protocol in order to open Fremont and that hits the wall.
Tesla Giga Nevada set to reopen on May 4 with new safety measures

And now here we are. There are many more tweets I skipped but you probably can get a good idea how his mind has gone to the darkside. After all, he is just a human being. But Elon is still Elon I knew.

 

[Highway2Heel]

Surely nobody is expecting it to take that long now? I'm not expecting it to open on monday, but I'd be very surprised if its more than a week beyond that. Other US car factories in other states are opening, so california looks like getting some very anti-business PR over the next few days if they dont do something soon.

I agree. I meant to add another paragraph stating it won’t be June 1 since GM (for instance) has acknowledged they’ll run out of cash as early as September. The Big 3 can’t afford much more of a delay. They’re maxed out on credit lines, etc. And, TSLA won’t be sitting on the sidelines while the Big 3 are working. I’m expecting mid-May at the latest based on what I hear from a UAW contact. I’m applying that mid-May rationale to Tesla in conjunction with the “days not weeks” quote from Governor Ransom.

 

[Krugerrand]

I agree with most everything you said, except a few things:
There is a difference between a tweet and the media, short sellers, the pandemic and the recession, etc... Everything else is external and expected, the tweets are self-inflicted and harder to swallow.
It's just so difficult to think that there was nothing else he could have said to get his points across. He's 100 times smarter than I am and literally everything he says has a powerful reach so I can't see a point of this shock and awe maneuver.

Of course there’s a difference, but those are the various challenges put in my path on the way to realize all the not-really-free-but-kinda-free money. I’ve got to be made to work at it in some form or the money holds no value at all and is hollow. Might just as well had someone will it to me. Where’s the fun in that? Where’s the life lesson?

 

[Joshker]

My 2 cents

1) Start at 1:15, what Barbara says makes a lot of sense to me. With the right controls in place construction or a factory can contain this. I’m a Firefighter, we are the ones responding to these COVID patients, we live in close quarters for 24 hours at a time, eat together and respond together and somehow for the most part we’re not being infected. I’m certain a factory that has humans primarily working with robots (been there, it’s amazing) can take the same precautions we do when we get to the station and while working.

2) “Stock is too high IMO” I agree with others here if they announced a stock split on Monday it would all make sense. He did say high and NOT overvalued (I’m hoping this keeps him kosher with the SEC, it’s Elon, we know he’s emotional/passionate understandable but He is not stupid/bipolar) Keep in mind after the Q1 earnings it was up in the mid 800’s AH, lets say 840 If you were to split the stock at 840, you’d be back to $420, we know he love’s this game and I’m certain this would capture a lot more people who really want to but can’t be a part of this amazing company. And before people bring up the fact he’s said they won’t do this in the past, they also said a capital raise was not needed in Q4, times change and maybe from a prospective standpoint $420 seems more reasonable to a young investor than a $800 price given the uncertainty of the future. Not everyone understands the stock market and company valuation aspect like we do.

 

[SpaceHobo]

I must commend Mr. Musk on his recent tweets. I just noticed that he retweeted a comment made by John Cleese in relation to a story written by my own brother-in-law.

Elon Musk on Twitter

I can’t argue with that.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Right now, if production starts back on June 1 at Fremont, Tesla (With the capital raise that was maligned by some at the time) will be “exactly” where it would have been without a shutdown and without the capital raise. The shutdown will be 10 weeks on June 1 and I’m estimating that Tesla can match GM’s burn rate of $200M per week with the belt tightening done.

...

Interesting. Unfortunately, I am getting more and more pessimistic that Fremont will open June 1st or even by July. Elon's frustration says to me he's gotten indications that it will be much longer and I suspect even counties that have a "plan" like Sonoma County are willing to let this go on and on until the torches and pitchforks come out. By then it will be too late.

Can Tesla survive for a year with just output from Shanghai, New York and Nevada?

 

[Intl Professor]

Shelter in place brings out the mental illness in everyone.

Hard for me to judge since my wife is stuck at home, for the most part, with me. She's a practicing Buddhist whose stability in all things, mostly cleanliness in my case, is similar to the uber sane attitude toward money of Krugerrand.

I would go further than you, being human brings out the best and worst of us. Everyone. We see it more often in high profile types and others close to us, another BFO. There is great comfort provided to and by TMC for shut-ins.

 

[Krugerrand]

Was that an invitation?

Yeah. NO!

Has anyone else noticed the recent transformation of @Krugerrand from Rumpus Cat to Old Deuteronomy? I like it.

**** ***! Lest there be any confusion.

 

[bramsvs]

Really? And what is your time estimate for when those conditions will be achieved? If you don’t know, what's your rationale for calling them reasonable?

From that article: Petty Tyrants

The conditions are that before we are free to continue with our lives, Sonoma County must have the following abilities:
* The ability to monitor and protect our communities through aggressive testing, contact tracing, isolating, and supporting those who are positive or exposed;
* The ability to prevent infection in people who are at risk for more severe COVID-19;
* The ability to reduce infection spread so that it is decreasing in the community;
* The ability of the hospital and health systems to have sufficient bed and ICU capacity to handle surges;
* The ability to develop therapeutics to meet the demand;
* The ability to obtain sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE) for hospitals and health system to handle surges;
* The ability for businesses, schools, and child care facilities to support physical distancing; and
* The ability to determine when to reinstitute certain measures, such as the stay-at-home orders, if necessary.

I'm calling them reasonable because this is what is needed to keep R0<1, as demonstrated China, South Korea etc, while providing appropriate care to those affected. It will be a matter of days/weeks not months/years.

You can't just as one single company decide to go and fix everything yourself because you'll end up with a situation in which everyone is fighting over scarce resources like testing, contact tracing abilities, PPE, anesthetics, doctors until you can't control the spread and everyone will be worse of (tragedy of the commons: Tragedy of the commons - Wikipedia). Giga Shanghai was a bit different, I suppose they controlled the spread in an earlier stage by effectively isolating the whole region from affected regions.

So you, unfortunately(!), need to give the government, hospitals, schools, other business etc. some time to get everything set up. While at the same time reducing the spread of the virus. Elon still thinks we're in a 'flu-like' flattening the curve situation, somehow neglecting the lessons learned all over the world. I don't see any good reason to set people up against the government, calling the measures fascist and shouting freedom or to peddle conspiracy theories. Governments already has plenty of incentives to keep the economy running, taxes for one. Last thing they need is having a crowd lifting their own lock-down before they're confident the virus can be controlled.

 

[XHabjab]

On the subject of California:

California’s great Central Valley — the combination of the San Joaquin and Sacramento Valleys — produces 25 percent of the food eaten in the United States.

Hollywood’s film industry is America’s single business that has indisputably led the world for than a century — despite recession, despite depression, Hollywood has defined art, culture and communication while making money year after year after year. LA LA land as it is often called, is one of the most conservative business models ever created,

Disney single-handedly spawned the cartoon industry and the amusement park industries — culturally impacting the lives of children and people worldwide. Imagine cartoons without Mickey Mouse. Disney does not have engineers, they have imagineers.

Silicon Valley’s contribution to the computer industry and the development of the Internet — think Intel, Cisco Systems, and hundreds of other technology companies — has driven productivity and efficiency across the planet.

San Diego’s Qualcomm drove the development of cellular technology enabling communications by billions and billions of people.

Apple combined cellular technology and computer into smart phones further advancing communication and collaboration seeding innovation and invention to levels mankind has never experienced.

SpaceX in one development — reusable rockets — rekindled the worlds passion for exploration and science — rekindled mankind’s imagination for what’s possible.

Tesla has sparked a revolution in transportation, safety and a belief that we change the world — belief that we heal our environment — belief that we can leave a better world for our children.

Many are so quick to criticize California; consider what your world would be like without California. Hell, you’re probably reading this on an IPhone or some computer designed in California. Surfs up! Y’all be cool.

California's glory days have come and gone though. Take a trip to Rodeo Drive or Beverly Hills nowadays and you want to wash your hands, shower and throw away the clothes you are wearing. Never mind the covid stuff. The place is rancid. It wasn't like that a few decades ago.

California still makes a large portion of the country's food (and you left out all that wine) but besides that, there is really nothing else there that could not be done elsewhere. And it is being done elsewhere.

Lots more could be said but I'll leave it at that.

 

[feigen66]

Governments already has plenty of incentives to keep the economy running, taxes for one. Last thing they need is having a crowd lifting their own lock-down before they're confident the virus can be controlled.

Not completely disagree with you. Elon is definitely childish by calling it as flu. On the other hand, government may have the right incentive but wrong policies.

Plenty of example, such as *Gold Standard* as one of the factors triggered depression.