Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

The first time Elon announced he felt the stock price was too high...I liked it. He was being honest. This led me to invest more.

If you take the stance that "our main factory is shut down and we don't know when we will be allowed to open it--maybe never", then $800 is too high. IIRC @JusRelax did an analysis from the financial statements showing each share was worth around $1,200.

 

[woodisgood]

To me it’s debatable if buying some stock in a company and watching other people toil at building it, is in fact ‘work’.

While I’ll definitely give work credit to those who’ve done copious amounts of mathematics and independent research, many I believe are simply riding the coattails of others and THAT is one big reason why they are in and out of the stock on the drop of a tweet and playing options for a quick buck.

Now for those that just had their blood pressure rise on my last paragraph — don’t try and shove the shoe on your foot if it doesn’t fit.

If the shoe does fit then have the good sense to own it and wear the shoe proudly. If you can’t manage that pride, then consider changing who you are as a person so you can be proud of yourself.

There are other posters here who inherently know that the tighter you hold onto money, the harder it becomes to hold. That you in fact have to care less about money to attract more money. I know, it sounds all froo-froo but I’m telling you that’s how it works.

I consider every penny over my initial investment to be free money. And since nothing is really free in life, I must pay for that money by going through a few trials and tribulations along the way that is meant to test my metal, my convictions, my instincts; a tweet now and again, a coordinated assault by media, short sellers and the like, a pandemic and economic downturn, a SEC lawsuit, etc...

Just image the trials and tribulations Elon and his employees have had to go through to stick it out. They’re the ones taking the brunt of everything

So much this.

 

[SMAlset]

I guess people can interpret his tweets differently. To me, I sensed an underlying destructive and frustrating tone. Coupled with a single tweet about the stock price and it got ugly real quick.

Frustrated no doubt. I dislike twitter because its not easy to parse together various threads of what people are commenting on or to follow their comments and thoughts at the time. No doubt he’s been concerned about opening the plant, I think he’s reacted to shade thrown his way, and apparently reacting to an unhappy soon-to-deliver pregnant girlfriend too. His comment about Gene Wilder’s house and other property had me wondering if maybe she hoped they’d stay there. Who knows. Twitter is good for catchy blurbs that generate opinions. I’m not a fan of it for a real means of communicating.

 

[dl003]

To me it’s debatable if buying some stock in a company and watching other people toil at building it, is in fact ‘work’.

While I’ll definitely give work credit to those who’ve done copious amounts of mathematics and independent research, many I believe are simply riding the coattails of others and THAT is one big reason why they are in and out of the stock on the drop of a tweet and playing options for a quick buck.

Now for those that just had their blood pressure rise on my last paragraph — don’t try and shove the shoe on your foot if it doesn’t fit.

If the shoe does fit then have the good sense to own it and wear the shoe proudly. If you can’t manage that pride, then consider changing who you are as a person so you can be proud of yourself.

There are other posters here who inherently know that the tighter you hold onto money, the harder it becomes to hold. That you in fact have to care less about money to attract more money. I know, it sounds all froo-froo but I’m telling you that’s how it works.

I consider every penny over my initial investment to be free money. And since nothing is really free in life, I must pay for that money by going through a few trials and tribulations along the way that is meant to test my metal, my convictions, my instincts; a tweet now and again, a coordinated assault by media, short sellers and the like, a pandemic and economic downturn, a SEC lawsuit, etc...

Just image the trials and tribulations Elon and his employees have had to go through to stick it out. They’re the ones taking the brunt of everything.

The problem is you (general) can’t actually imagine what it’s like to walk in Elon’s shoes, but you sure know how to come to a quick judgement in the moment as if you did know.

I can’t quite grasp it even though my whole life I’ve had people tell me what I can’t do and I’ve had to slug my way through to prove they were full of it. Now I just nod and smile when I’m told it can’t be done, doing for my own benefit and knowing in due course they’ll be eating a replica of Dodger’s hat.

I agree with most everything you said, except a few things:
There is a difference between a tweet and the media, short sellers, the pandemic and the recession, etc... Everything else is external and expected, the tweets are self-inflicted and harder to swallow.
It's just so difficult to think that there was nothing else he could have said to get his points across. He's 100 times smarter than I am and literally everything he says has a powerful reach so I can't see a point of this shock and awe maneuver.

 

[Krugerrand]

Way ahead.

But regardless, I take your point that there is a danger that in looking at every new piece of data, that an investor will overreact.

On the other hand, buying an individual stock and then forgetting about it, strikes me as beyond foolish. The world changes. Exactly how often an individual investment needs to be reconsidered is debatable, but “regularly” seems correct to me.

You’re not wrong. The problem is the lack of talent, ability, instinct, foresight (pick a word) that people have at correctly judging a situation and deciding in a reasonable, logical way. The problem is the lack of a healthy view of money.

Look at the demonstration of emotional irrationality on display.

That is why buy, hold and forgetaboutit works best in general. It behooves people to know and fully understand their strengths and weaknesses and live accordingly. A lot of people bad with money, managing it, attracting it, keeping it.

 

[Krugerrand]

The differences:
I'm not in charge of a multi-billion dollar company.
My actions do not have any real impact on others.
I'm not communicating to millions of followers.
I'm not repeating anti-science conspiracy theories.

Over the last few days Elon has shown himself to be less rational than I thought, and after all these years I thought I had a reasonable measure of the man. I was wrong so I needed to make adjustments. I had too much exposure to a person who has diminished themselves in my eyes. To ignore that would be foolish. I still probably have more of my net worth in TSLA than most people but I need to keep evaluating that more thoroughly.

So he’s too cray-cray to have a million (just pulled a number out my butt) on the line, but not too cray-cray to have 1/2 a million on the line.

I can appreciate a sliding scale investment.

 

[Krugerrand]

The only problem is He could have qualified the statement instead of leaving us guessing what he meant.
If his intent was to have the highest impact by hurting investors, then he succeeded.

Actually he did qualify it, you just needed to wait a few hours. People always so impatient to be served.

 

[JRP3]

So he’s too cray-cray to have a million (just pulled a number out my butt) on the line, but not too cray-cray to have 1/2 a million on the line.

I can appreciate a sliding scale investment.

It's always important to price cray-cray appropriately.

 

[Eugene Ash]

That is why buy, hold and forgetaboutit works best in general. It behooves people to know and fully understand their strengths and weaknesses and live accordingly. A lot of people bad with money, managing it, attracting it, keeping it.

As a person who speaks 3 languages fluently, and can understand another two, I often find sayings from other languages that could be useful illustrations. "Money burns your pocket?" comes to mind. It is one of the hardest things to just do... nothing

 

[Steve m]

Sorry but we would never sell our house here in the Bay area to move to Washington State. Period....despite the high cost of living etc. I think a lot of the tech people feel the same way. Also would never move to Texas either.

I took Elon’s twitter comments as touching on three totally separate issues. While I don’t necessarily agree with Elon’s covid views I can understand where he is coming from. Not sure it’s the best way to put them out there but he is a business leader and wants to get back in the game. He also knows he needs suppliers who could go bankrupt in the meantime. I do wonder if Maye came down with the virus if it would alter his view at all. As for the comment on selling his houses and possessions (one house he had with an ex-wife he sold a little while back), he’s said for some time that he will liquidate his things (and pretty sure at some point his Tesla stock) to put into the Mars mission but in the mean time he’s committed to furthering both missions and seeing them through. He’s put more of his own money into Tesla too. I’d call this his life’s mission. I truly believe he’s not into this for the money personally unlike some social posters have claimed. The money makes his missions possible to pursue. He is one of those rare business leaders who doesn’t take a salary when he could. As for the SP being overvalued, he has commented on it before when analysts were making the same comments. Being the largest shareholder, he stands to lose the most on paper. I took the twitter comments with a raised eyebrow but it hasn’t altered my feelings about the company. Holding stock long-term.

And yet one of the common complaints here in Washington State is about the number of people selling their homes in California and driving up the price of homes up here.

Hey you want to stay there and pay outrageous prices for homes. High taxes etc. More power to you.

Me I am just going to sit back and smile looking at this...

 

[Eugene Ash]

If you take the stance that "our main factory is shut down and we don't know when we will be allowed to open it--maybe never", then $800 is too high. IIRC @JusRelax did an analysis from the financial statements showing each share was worth around $1,200.

Pre-virus, when TSLA market capitalization surpassed VW, I did some back of the napkin calculations, based on VW margin and volume, vs TSLA's. It wasn't factoring any goodwill items like future products. Just cars to cars. Back then, i think around 750 (i might be off), my conclusion was that TSLA needs to produce about 1.1m cars to deserve that valuation, just as purely an automotive company. Those margins, those ASPs. I was absolutely fine buying even at $900, since that volume would be reached in just a few years. With Fremont stopped, might be longer.
Alien dreadnought can't come fast enough....

 

[bubb]

Hey you want to stay there and pay outrageous prices for homes. High taxes etc. More power to you.

Me I am just going to sit back and smile looking at this...View attachment 538109

Beautiful view, more power to you as well. Many of us here are fortunate enough to choose where to live and perhaps we can leave it at that

As for Tesla, they are not remotely in a financial/operational position to consider moving until these dark days have largely passed. However, I'm really excited about the future potential for them to grow their operations into the middle of the country and beyond. It could really help the image of the company to make large investments in different regions of the country, IMO.

 

[Sancho]

You’re not wrong. The problem is the lack of talent, ability, instinct, foresight (pick a word) that people have at correctly judging a situation and deciding in a reasonable, logical way. The problem is the lack of a healthy view of money.

Look at the demonstration of emotional irrationality on display.

That is why buy, hold and forgetaboutit works best in general. It behooves people to know and fully understand their strengths and weaknesses and live accordingly. A lot of people bad with money, managing it, attracting it, keeping it.

Where we disagree is that, for the folks out there that don’t have the skills and/or temperament to succeed at stock picking, they should just invest in index funds.

If you are going to pick stocks, you need to manage what you pick. If after a few years of doing that, you are either not beating the market, or getting ulcers trying, then switch to all index funds.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

So the uptick rule is still in effect Monday and goes away Tuesday? Will it matter?

 

[Causalien]

It's always important to price cray-cray appropriately.

Shelter in place brings out the mental illness in everyone.

 

[Beltsbear]

Nobody is talking about GF1. What is happening there with the battery lines and Panasonic? Tesla will do much better if GF1 opens soon. Batteries can be used for energy storage. Very profitable.

 

[MartinAustin]

Elon added 114,000 twitter followers in the last 24hrs.

In the 24hrs prior to that, he added 5,000 followers.

Obviously something about his actions Friday has appealed to people, I'm guessing the open-the-economy rebel crowd... who happen to love pickups and american manufacturing. (and probably think american rockets are OK)

 

[Causalien]

Sorry but we would never sell our house here in the Bay area to move to Washington State. Period....despite the high cost of living etc. I think a lot of the tech people feel the same way. Also would never move to Texas either.

I took Elon’s twitter comments as touching on three totally separate issues. While I don’t necessarily agree with Elon’s covid views I can understand where he is coming from. Not sure it’s the best way to put them out there but he is a business leader and wants to get back in the game. He also knows he needs suppliers who could go bankrupt in the meantime. I do wonder if Maye came down with the virus if it would alter his view at all. As for the comment on selling his houses and possessions (one house he had with an ex-wife he sold a little while back), he’s said for some time that he will liquidate his things (and pretty sure at some point his Tesla stock) to put into the Mars mission but in the mean time he’s committed to furthering both missions and seeing them through. He’s put more of his own money into Tesla too. I’d call this his life’s mission. I truly believe he’s not into this for the money personally unlike some social posters have claimed. The money makes his missions possible to pursue. He is one of those rare business leaders who doesn’t take a salary when he could. As for the SP being overvalued, he has commented on it before when analysts were making the same comments. Being the largest shareholder, he stands to lose the most on paper. I took the twitter comments with a raised eyebrow but it hasn’t altered my feelings about the company. Holding stock long-term.

I went through a phase where I sold all my possessions too. Digitized all the stuff with memories and burnt most of them.

I am just surprised Elon is going through this phase now instead of earlier in his life. I believe steve jobs went through this as well at some point and then ended up in India.

My conclusion after the whole thing is that you do need to keep one house as renting sounds nice but is more troublesome than owning your own place.. But only if you are a productive person.

 

[Causalien]

Did you really mean olace ? I hope not thats NASTY !
Urban Dictionary: olace

LOL, who would've thought that a fat finger typo gave it a much deeper meaning.

 

[goinfraftw]

Google searches certainly escalated beyond a normal day. One could say Tesla earnings and TSLA are correlated, but not with Elon Musk. Though, Elon Musk is correlated with Tesla and TSLA.

Google Trends