Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

I don’t think people here are focusing on the most damaging tweet. Elon claimed the doctors in this article are making good points. Doctors’ viral video rebuked by health officials; YouTube removes it

Here was the argument:
1) 12% of people tested for CV in CA. have the disease.
2) Therefore 12% of all Californians have the disease.
3) Therefore if we divide the current number of fatalities (wrong since fatalities lag infections by up to a month), by the number of Californians infected, we can see the mortality rate os 0.03 (they apparently meant 0.03%, but like many math illiterates they confuse fractions and percentages).
4) Therefore Coronavirus is less dangerous than the flu.

‘This logic is so beyond stupid, it beggars belief. It is fully equivalent to claiming 80% of Californians have cataracts, because that’s the percentage of people with symptoms of cloudy vision that are later determined to have cataracts. You have to take very randomized samples when extrapolating to larger populations. I spotted this flaw within seconds of watching the video and I am no expert in surveys, or medicine!

‘Elon making the claim that they have good points which minimize the seriousness of a pandemic, while we’re in the middle of it boils down to the following possibilities
1) He really thought they had good points (incompetent and borderline stupid).
2) He didn’t pay close attention to the claims and just tweeted without thinking (Reckless and dangerous).
3) He knows that it was incredibly bad schlock Science, but tweets it anyway for some other purpose (Completely reprehensible).

I am in the middle of an email argument with 10 different surgeons (including a head of surgery and who’s studied infectious diseases), after a friend included me in a thread about this video.

It is so completely unbelievable that these very smart surgeons can be taken in by these Bakersfield doctor’s claims. I believe they’re all Republicans and don’t believe in Climate Change. But it is even more strange that they can be taken in by something so blatantly wrong and in their field.

But of much greater concern is that Elon is apparently being taken in by schlock Science and doubting mainstream experts (remember he also tweeted we would be at zero new cases in the U.S. last week)? We need Elon to be rational and to have an accurate view of the world, in order to be making the best decisions.

P.S. I’m still 70% Tesla and will probably deploy cash to buy more if it drops from here, so I still believe in the Company and I still believe in Elon, but this is HIGHLY, HIGHLY concerning.

This is a case of how to use the fact that asymptomatic people exist used to make a case for both sides. One side people are saying how it's scary how there are many carriers out there not being tested so the infected rate is much higher than stated so people need to stay home. Other side people are claiming since there are so many people who are positive and not tested, death rate is much lower, maybe even lower than the flu. People are making claims on both sides and it's inconclusive. You can't say how it's scary and you should shut down indefinitely due to ninja carriers but not pointing out that if that's the case then this virus is not all that dangerous is it.

 

[PeterJA]

Let's not forget Texas is merely a hyper-efficient benefactor of Democratic Socialist policies in Germany that almost single-handedly scaled wind/solar globally. Without Germany(and a little bit of California) far cheaper renewables in markets like Texas wouldn't even be the obvious option.

Agreed, capitalism needs government, in the words of one famous capitalist.
Berkshire Hathaway 2020 Annual Shareholders Meeting Livestream (6th video segment)

Without the government loan and other benefits that Tesla received, we would not be where we are today. The eternal struggle of democracy is to stop government from being captured by powerful capitalists. Only simplistic or corrupt thinkers are "tripped up" by that idea.

 

[Buckminster]

Buffett has sold all of his airline stock. I wonder if there are any up and coming alternatives from him to buy in the transport sector....

 

[SOULPEDL]

I don’t think people here are focusing on the most damaging tweet. Elon claimed the doctors in this article are making good points. Doctors’ viral video rebuked by health officials; YouTube removes it

Here was the argument:
1) 12% of people tested for CV in CA. have the disease.
2) Therefore 12% of all Californians have the disease.
3) Therefore if we divide the current number of fatalities (wrong since fatalities lag infections by up to a month), by the number of Californians infected, we can see the mortality rate os 0.03 (they apparently meant 0.03%, but like many math illiterates they confuse fractions and percentages).
4) Therefore Coronavirus is less dangerous than the flu.

‘This logic is so beyond stupid, it beggars belief. It is fully equivalent to claiming 80% of Californians have cataracts, because that’s the percentage of people with symptoms of cloudy vision that are later determined to have cataracts. You have to take very randomized samples when extrapolating to larger populations. I spotted this flaw within seconds of watching the video and I am no expert in surveys, or medicine!

‘Elon making the claim that they have good points which minimize the seriousness of a pandemic, while we’re in the middle of it boils down to the following possibilities
1) He really thought they had good points (incompetent and borderline stupid).
2) He didn’t pay close attention to the claims and just tweeted without thinking (Reckless and dangerous).
3) He knows that it was incredibly bad schlock Science, but tweets it anyway for some other purpose (Completely reprehensible).

I am in the middle of an email argument with 10 different surgeons (including a head of surgery and who’s studied infectious diseases), after a friend included me in a thread about this video.

It is so completely unbelievable that these very smart surgeons can be taken in by these Bakersfield doctor’s claims. I believe they’re all Republicans and don’t believe in Climate Change. But it is even more strange that they can be taken in by something so blatantly wrong and in their field.

But of much greater concern is that Elon is apparently being taken in by schlock Science and doubting mainstream experts (remember he also tweeted we would be at zero new cases in the U.S. last week)? We need Elon to be rational and to have an accurate view of the world, in order to be making the best decisions.

P.S. I’m still 70% Tesla and will probably deploy cash to buy more if it drops from here, so I still believe in the Company and I still believe in Elon, but this is HIGHLY, HIGHLY concerning.

I don't understand #2.
The sampling method is critical, I agree. Just as with drive through vs walkup where ppl with cars are less likely to use mass transit. So where is the detail on this?

 

[wtlloyd]

Yeah, but Texans innovated oil extraction and showed the Saudi Royalty how to develop their resources. Oklahoma developed ways to store and transport all that valuable oil.

Without those important contributions, we would probably STILL be driving electric-powered cars!

Er, wait a minute....

California produced 38% of the Nation's supply in 1914. Texas didn't supplant California until the '20's

 

[MartinAustin]

WOW. Tell us what you really think... don't hold back, now!

 

[BornToFly]

I think you already had plan to liquidate part of the shares to meet the margin requirements. I don't think there is another way around. The key is liquidate when SP if more favorable, and don't wait until the broker forces sell your holding.

The way around it is to buy protective Puts to cover your shares, as I expained earlier. Doing so can make really big margin calls go away.

 

[wtlloyd]

I could see the SP running up briefly with the one-two punch of Fremont resumption and Battery Day then get beat back down by the realities of Q2. Not that it makes much difference as I'm a long but also 63 yrs old and hoping to retire next year. My Tesla Long term is 5 years out as it is only about 10% of my holdings, I do hope to accumulate more.

This is exactly what I am expecting to happen over the next quarter. But I think a lot of investors will surge toward Tesla in the second half, for long term, once they understand what Tesla Storage is undertaking.

 

[feigen66]

Twitter

Ross Gerber on TSLA PAC. I think it is a good idea. Our mission is too important to be fit under two-party system. While many of us share different views, we have the same mission to transfer sustainable energy and interplanetary species to increase the odd of human survival.

 

[JRP3]

There's a Coronavirus doomsday freakout thread directly below this, feel free to share your sentiments there.

His post was not actually about the virus but about how badly Elon is not understanding the science or purposely promoting misinformation. It's quite relevant to this thread. Stop trying to be the virus police.

 

[Fobble]

The way around it is to buy protective Puts to cover your shares, as I expained earlier. Doing so can make really big margin calls go away.

I don't know much about options, but do you need cash to do anything? His account has negative tradable fund.

 

[jerry33]

I was thinking this (well, a less weird theory) yesterday, but was hesitant to post:

Our enemies of old are back and have the Alameda County officials in their pockets. "Keep Fremont closed down as long as possible" is their order, backed with shiny coin.

It doesn't take that. It just takes one or two of the right people who want the status quo. I suspect the Sheriff is one of them.

 

[jerry33]

Elon had no trouble quickly publishing emails with hospitals on twitter when it suited his defense against the media and their ridiculous ventilator hit job (I'm looking at you, Russ). How about all the company communications with county and state officials now that we are out of the quiet period? The company could overshadow all of this controversy if they could show evidence of good faith efforts being rebuffed or ignored by officials.

The problem with that is that if you really go after the county, everything that you later try to do will be delayed or blocked for as long as possible. Better to do it the way Elon has where he can say that he wasn't targeting the county specifically. Once he's moved the factory (in a few years after a couple more GFs are open and producing) it won't matter anymore.

 

[Highway2Heel]

Time to watch for the machine that builds the machine to become front and center again...robots don’t get sick...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

His post was not actually about the virus but about how badly Elon is not understanding the science or purposely promoting misinformation. It's quite relevant to this thread. Stop trying to be the virus police.

There's a Coronavirus doomsday freakout thread directly below this, feel free to share your sentiments there.

 

[feigen66]

California Snowpack Already Nearly Bare As Drought Worsens | The Weather Channel

I am guessing we will see increasing demand of stationary battery pack this year as PG&E need to shut down electricity to combat early fire season.

 

[jerry33]

Hello everybody, new here... I am a Tesla fan, Tesla supporter, Tesla enthusiast and Tesla investor here (from Northern Europe, so excuse my non-perfect English...). However, I have a huge problem, and I am a bit desperate and I need suggestions from you all here! I have been investing in Tesla since 3-4 years, and I was very happy with the results of my investment. I have 100% invested in Tesla, because I believe that 10 years from now Tesla will be the leader in all car production worldwide... no doubts about that. The few dinosaur companies left will not be able to compete with the genius of Elon... however, the recent events have put a serious trouble in my offshore brokerage account. After the last ER and CC, I went all-in Tesla, borrowing half way my margin limits, during the surge AH on Wednesday... I thought that - if in the middle of a pandemic - Tesla is the only company that can post a juicy profit, an incredible YoY growth and is light ahead of the competition, the market will reward the share price, right? and in fact I was so happy, 10% up in AH and amazing expectations for the rest of the week... I was intending to hold the shares in margin for 2-3 weeks, and sell them after the run up to 1,000 or so (my personal target was 1,200 a share, following what happened last time Tesla showed amazing profit and margins all over the books...). However, already on Thursday the stock was a bit weak in the afternoon, and I thought it was the shorts and the other haters in Twitter pushing it down, probably helped by some big short like Spiegel and Einhorn... right?... so I doubled down, reaching my absolute top on margin, because I was sure Elon and the longs would surely do something to help the share price that was so high in AH after ER... I also sold some weekly puts at 750 to get some cash right away on the account... then, on Friday morning Elon made that strange tweet, selling everything and going away, and Tesla is too high price... and oh my God my account has completely crashed and my brokerage has issued a huge margin call that I have no idea how to meet... I know Elon surely had his reasons to tweet like he did, we know he is there for us and for the cause, but what the heck why during market hours and why without more precise explanation of his plan? What shall I do now??? I have no idea, I kind of hope it does a huge reversal on Monday, I have 3 days to meet the margin call... shall I hold or give up immediately... I can liquidate other things to cover the call, and open a mortgage on the house...that should be sufficient... the most scary thing of all is that I had no courage to say anything to my wife... she will kill me if she finds out, I promised her so many presents with the results on my investments... any suggestion, idea or forecast what happens on Monday welcome...

What you did was gambling, not investing. If you gamble enough, the house odds will always catch up to you. Investing is purchasing shares with money that you have and holding on to them.

 

[MaChiMiB]

Hanwha inks EV battery equipment deal with Tesla

News from today.

... An official of the company said its machinery division recently inked a deal with Tesla to supply equipment used in the process. "We had a supply deal of battery formation equipment with Tesla," the official said.

Battery formation is the process of initial charging and discharging of battery cells. This process is conducted in the final phase of the battery manufacturing procedure to format and test it before installation.
...
Hanwha's battery formation equipment will initially supplied to Tesla's Fremont factory in California and then to production facilities in Nevada, Germany and China, according to local tech news site TheElec.
...

 

[BornToFly]

I don't know much about options, but do you need cash to do anything? His account has negative tradable fund.

His account has shares which have value. Even though he is facing a margin call, he can use margin to buy protective Puts, which can make the margin call go away. It is a game. Last year I would have to spend a little money, usually a few hundred dollars a week, to buy cheap Puts that had no chance of ending up in the money, to make 6 to 7 figure margin calls go away. I kept thinking, if they know that buying these cheap Puts will make my margin call go away, why are they making me buy them? But that is how it works.

P.S. - What got me in trouble last year was not knowing how much your margin requirement increases as the stock price goes down. I bought shares on Margin without a problem because I had more margin available than I used. But as the SP dropped, I suddenly needed a lot more margin than I had, which resulted in margin calls.

 

[Khamul]

Elon's popularity on Reddit may have taken a deep-dive, but he's just reached 33.6 million followers on twitter. It's just been one or two days since 33.5 followers.