Take the corona treatment posts to the corona thread. We don’t want the main thread infected with the endless in-depth medical discussions that rage over there.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Do not assume that TSLA will be at 1500 later this year. Ofcourse it could be, but it could also be at 500 or lower. There’s no sure thing with TSLA and it’s not like the world economy is in a good spot right now, or later this year. So better not make promises to your wife about being able to pay back the mortgage on the house or buy her a car. You may not be able to keep those promises.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
The deregulation wasn't implemented by Bush/Perry, it was designed by the oil & gas industry and handed to Bush/Perry who were told to rubber stamp it.Here's a post I made a few months ago regarding solar, wind and the Texas grid.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable
Nature, good competitive policy and the CREZ transmission buildout are finishing off coal power production in Texas. When we can get grid storage in the mix, NG is done.
And if you really want to trip over your politics, the deregulation policy that enabled all this was instigated by GW Bush and Rick Perry
Let's not forget Texas is merely a hyper-efficient benefactor of Democratic Socialist policies in Germany that almost single-handedly scaled wind/solar globally. Without Germany(and a little bit of California) far cheaper renewables in markets like Texas wouldn't even be the obvious option.
Lest new members be confused regarding the poor reporting of the memo: Elon never said they would be out of money in 10 months. What he said was:
. Doing the math, if Tesla continued with the previous quarter's (Q1 2019, -702 million) burn rate, that money (2.7 billion gross, 2.4 net) would be spent in 10 months. Thus putting them where they were before the raise (2.2 Billion in cash and equivalents), their low water mark based on current plans.
As we all know, Q2 was less of a loss (408 million), Q3 was profitable, as were Q4 and Q1 2020. So the cost cutting measures helped.
I don’t think people here are focusing on the most damaging tweet. Elon claimed the doctors in this article are making good points. https://centraloregondaily.com/doctors-viral-video-rebuked-by-health-officials-youtube-removes-it/
Here was the argument:
1) 12% of people tested for CV in CA. have the disease.
2) Therefore 12% of all Californians have the disease.
3) Therefore if we divide the current number of fatalities (wrong since fatalities lag infections by up to a month), by the number of Californians infected, we can see the mortality rate os 0.03 (they apparently meant 0.03%, but like many math illiterates they confuse fractions and percentages).
4) Therefore Coronavirus is less dangerous than the flu.
‘This logic is so beyond stupid, it beggars belief. It is fully equivalent to claiming 80% of Californians have cataracts, because that’s the percentage of people with symptoms of cloudy vision that are later determined to have cataracts. You have to take very randomized samples when extrapolating to larger populations. I spotted this flaw within seconds of watching the video and I am no expert in surveys, or medicine!
‘Elon making the claim that they have good points which minimize the seriousness of a pandemic, while we’re in the middle of it boils down to the following possibilities
1) He really thought they had good points (incompetent and borderline stupid).
2) He didn’t pay close attention to the claims and just tweeted without thinking (Reckless and dangerous).
3) He knows that it was incredibly bad schlock Science, but tweets it anyway for some other purpose (Completely reprehensible).
I am in the middle of an email argument with 10 different surgeons (including a head of surgery and who’s studied infectious diseases), after a friend included me in a thread about this video.
It is so completely unbelievable that these very smart surgeons can be taken in by these Bakersfield doctor’s claims. I believe they’re all Republicans and don’t believe in Climate Change. But it is even more strange that they can be taken in by something so blatantly wrong and in their field.
But of much greater concern is that Elon is apparently being taken in by schlock Science and doubting mainstream experts (remember he also tweeted we would be at zero new cases in the U.S. last week)? We need Elon to be rational and to have an accurate view of the world, in order to be making the best decisions.
P.S. I’m still 70% Tesla and will probably deploy cash to buy more if it drops from here, so I still believe in the Company and I still believe in Elon, but this is HIGHLY, HIGHLY concerning.
Here was the argument:
1) 12% of people tested for CV in CA. have the disease.
2) Therefore 12% of all Californians have the disease.
3) Therefore if we divide the current number of fatalities (wrong since fatalities lag infections by up to a month), by the number of Californians infected, we can see the mortality rate os 0.03 (they apparently meant 0.03%, but like many math illiterates they confuse fractions and percentages).
4) Therefore Coronavirus is less dangerous than the flu.
‘This logic is so beyond stupid, it beggars belief. It is fully equivalent to claiming 80% of Californians have cataracts, because that’s the percentage of people with symptoms of cloudy vision that are later determined to have cataracts. You have to take very randomized samples when extrapolating to larger populations. I spotted this flaw within seconds of watching the video and I am no expert in surveys, or medicine!
‘Elon making the claim that they have good points which minimize the seriousness of a pandemic, while we’re in the middle of it boils down to the following possibilities
1) He really thought they had good points (incompetent and borderline stupid).
2) He didn’t pay close attention to the claims and just tweeted without thinking (Reckless and dangerous).
3) He knows that it was incredibly bad schlock Science, but tweets it anyway for some other purpose (Completely reprehensible).
I am in the middle of an email argument with 10 different surgeons (including a head of surgery and who’s studied infectious diseases), after a friend included me in a thread about this video.
It is so completely unbelievable that these very smart surgeons can be taken in by these Bakersfield doctor’s claims. I believe they’re all Republicans and don’t believe in Climate Change. But it is even more strange that they can be taken in by something so blatantly wrong and in their field.
But of much greater concern is that Elon is apparently being taken in by schlock Science and doubting mainstream experts (remember he also tweeted we would be at zero new cases in the U.S. last week)? We need Elon to be rational and to have an accurate view of the world, in order to be making the best decisions.
P.S. I’m still 70% Tesla and will probably deploy cash to buy more if it drops from here, so I still believe in the Company and I still believe in Elon, but this is HIGHLY, HIGHLY concerning.
Here's a post I made a few months ago regarding solar, wind and the Texas grid.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable
Nature, good competitive policy and the CREZ transmission buildout are finishing off coal power production in Texas. When we can get grid storage in the mix, NG is done.
And if you really want to trip over your politics, the deregulation policy that enabled all this was instigated by GW Bush and Rick Perry
A little more hard data:
"With nearly 24 GW of wind capacity already, ERCOT is expected to continue to add wind generation, as well as make some significant solar additions in the coming years.
Wind capacity is projected to jump as much as 40% year on year by the end of 2020 to nearly 33,450 MW if all signed Interconnection Agreements are executed, according to ERCOT's "Capacity Changes by Fuel Type Charts" reports for January. Solar capacity could spike as much as 149% this year as well and then 105% in 2021.
Battery additions are also taking place with 262 MW expected to be added in 2020 to bring the total up to 366 MW and to as much as 568 MW in 2021, according to ERCOT data.
Basically Texas is on track to have 45GW installed wind and solar power capacity by the end of 2022.
It is by any standard an astounding success, and it has been achieved without sending its electrical prices to the moon.
smorgasbord
Active Member
I'm not so sure. Autonomy Day gave us great insights into how Tesla's AI works - yet it was a flop from a share price perspective. Except for one or two, the dumb analysts didn't understand the tech and to this day don't realize how the 3 Billion miles of available training data will enable Tesla to win. Instead, all they seemed concerned about who was charging what. They care about the FSD business model, not the FSD tech.
The same could be true for Battery Day. The analysts will likely ask what this means for the Panasonic relationship and whether it means GF1 will shutdown while they transition over, not what this battery tech means for Tesla's future vehicles. As a result, they'll see supply interruption costs, vehicles with old tech that Tesla has to discount to sell, etc. Remember the expression: Those who can - do; those who can't - teach? The third one is "Those who can't teach - become analysts." These folks are mostly not business savvy, are tech ignorant, have very short term views, and their idea of predicting the future is literally looking to the past.
Another example of where analysts don't get tech is with Tesla's recent FSD update. I think it's HUGE. Tesla is getting tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands, of neural net trainers for free. Everyone who turns stop sign/light/intersection on in their vehicle is training Tesla's neural net on recognition and what to do/not do, and Tesla isn't paying them - they're paying Tesla! Tesla probably gets more data from this in a day than Waymo gets in a year - and Tesla is getting data all over, not just from targeted cities.
I've had it on for only a couple of short rides now. It slowed for an intersection, I gave it the go-ahead, and then a pedestrian decided to cross. I saw the car recognized the pedestrian, and was about to manually brake, but the car slowed to a stop on its own until the pedestrian passed and then proceeded through the intersection. Very cool.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
There's a Coronavirus doomsday freakout thread directly below this, feel free to share your sentiments there.
Contraversial? All the more reason it would catch on.
Easy to get around this issue by limiting what the car can do while recording the sim. You just want the track info really, then race it at home for best times. Fixed it.
A little more hard data:
"With nearly 24 GW of wind capacity already, ERCOT is expected to continue to add wind generation, as well as make some significant solar additions in the coming years.
Wind capacity is projected to jump as much as 40% year on year by the end of 2020 to nearly 33,450 MW if all signed Interconnection Agreements are executed, according to ERCOT's "Capacity Changes by Fuel Type Charts" reports for January. Solar capacity could spike as much as 149% this year as well and then 105% in 2021.
Battery additions are also taking place with 262 MW expected to be added in 2020 to bring the total up to 366 MW and to as much as 568 MW in 2021, according to ERCOT data.
"
Basically Texas is on track to have 45GW installed wind and solar power capacity by the end of 2022.
It is by any standard an astounding success, and it has been achieved without sending its electrical prices to the moon.
Great to see Texas following the cheapest energy source - It's a genuine achievement of technology to make renewables so cheap.
When is Texas going to start pricing pollution externalities? When are they going to make auto sales a free market? There's plenty of regulatory capture if you want to look for it.
Turn Idaho Blue!
April 28 update from Ark Invest. About 2 hours long but definitely worth a watch/listen.
BIS2020: ARK’s Q&A Video Conference on COVID-19 and Market Volatility - ARK Invest
BIS2020: ARK’s Q&A Video Conference on COVID-19 and Market Volatility - ARK Invest
Damn dude, keep on reading from that post on... I was referring to KPIG via FM.
But, glad you're a fan of the 'Pig, nice to have fellow swine on the board ;-)
"The Daily Mail's main target audience is lower-middle-class British women."
Yes, I did reply too soon, and no, I'm not really a fan of "The Pig" - I know of it from long drives only.
This is more my speed : Ancient FM - Commercial-free Mediaeval and Renaissance Music
I did like Conway Twitty, though
I think you already had plan to liquidate part of the shares to meet the margin requirements. I don't think there is another way around. The key is liquidate when SP if more favorable, and don't wait until the broker forces sell your holding.
bubb
Member
Thanks for sharing that, it's pretty interesting. However, I'm going wait until that curve shows a sign of turning around before guessing about any sort of proportionality between these events.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Sold 80% Friday at the low. Still think it was good exit point and plan to buy back after Q2 earnings release (August) at what I believe could be in the $400 - $500 range. Reasons for selling:
- COVID19 is proving to be much more impactful that predicted, even from a month ago.
- Uncertainty of start up, and then ramp up back to previous output levels at Freemont and GFNY expecting to take longer. When I recently back back in I was hopeful for May 4th start.
- Markets just came off best month in thirty years, during a pandemic.
- Sell in May and go Away applicable here.
- YTD, TSLA is still up 68%, while its OEM competitors are down 40% to 50% (refer to chart below)
- Prior to Thursday and Friday's drop, TSLA was up 100% in six weeks IMO specifical due to high expectations of Q1 reports, so it is now "sell the news".
- Elon's tweets, although I only believe they caused a 4% drop and although 95% of this weekend posts are related to this, believe people are.
- In-fighting and taking sides by Members here on TMC. Black or white. Good or Bad. All or Nothing. Some very respected posters have lost their shine.
- The euphoria displayed by many posters on this TMC just last weekend, right up until all time high afters star price last Wedesday. It was not too long ago when @TT007 came up with the $4k/share target and he was laughed off this forum. Then ARK's $7k - $15k target was accepted en mass as a given.
Yes, Tesla will survive and thrive, while all other OEM that are not entrenched in EVs (all but China OEM) will go bankrupt or need bailouts. However to use an analogy, I see a pot hole in the road ahead. It is filled with water so we don't know how deep the pothole is until we drive into it, and it can't be avoided going at the speed we are traveling. Maybe it is an inch deep and is no cause for concern, or 6" deep which would cause a tire blow out. I've decided to slow down and go around the pothole and rejoin the journey after the pothole is in my rear view mirror. Sure, I may find myself playing catch-up, but by reducing my risk I know I will not end up in the ditch. Slowing down does not mean that I am out of the race for the long term. Simply taking care to preseve my assets. And if the pothole is much bigger than projected, I just may need those assets a little earlier.
Tesla is supply restraint. COVID-19 is preventing Tesla from growing as fast as they are able. I see TSLA going down up to 50% from here before rebounding back to $800 by end of 2020 and advancing at 30% per year for the forseeable future. Tesla has already won, just a matter of time.
I see many other OEM going bankrupt. They have a demand problem. All the Dealership lots are full (hundreds of unsold cars in each lot). Even when manufacturing resumes, they may not be able to sell to their Dealer network which must first unload the cars they already have, some at a financial loss. It is not going to be pretty. Peak auto has happened.
Mods. TMC, 2019 & 2020 Investors' Roundtale thread is broken. I spent a month reading this weekends' posts. Very glad to see a lot of old time TMC members voicing their concerns/comments. Those that post dozens of times a day have highjacked this thread, currently unreadable. I'll do my part. This will be my last post until when I buy back in, expecting August at the earlierst.
PS. My 20% invested in TSLA is in my Wife's accounts. She does not follow Tesla, TSLA, TMC, has no knowledge of the recent twitter storm and quite frankly couldn't care less, she just loves her M3. She wonders why I spend so long on TMC and does not know the share price from one month to the next. She is the smart one. I need to learn from her. Maybe her accounts will be more than mine some day which will suit me just fine. I'm now going out for a bike ride with my kids. Wishing everone the best life has to offer. Say healthy. Stay safe. Give back to those who have less. Life is good.
- COVID19 is proving to be much more impactful that predicted, even from a month ago.
- Uncertainty of start up, and then ramp up back to previous output levels at Freemont and GFNY expecting to take longer. When I recently back back in I was hopeful for May 4th start.
- Markets just came off best month in thirty years, during a pandemic.
- Sell in May and go Away applicable here.
- YTD, TSLA is still up 68%, while its OEM competitors are down 40% to 50% (refer to chart below)
- Prior to Thursday and Friday's drop, TSLA was up 100% in six weeks IMO specifical due to high expectations of Q1 reports, so it is now "sell the news".
- Elon's tweets, although I only believe they caused a 4% drop and although 95% of this weekend posts are related to this, believe people are.
- In-fighting and taking sides by Members here on TMC. Black or white. Good or Bad. All or Nothing. Some very respected posters have lost their shine.
- The euphoria displayed by many posters on this TMC just last weekend, right up until all time high afters star price last Wedesday. It was not too long ago when @TT007 came up with the $4k/share target and he was laughed off this forum. Then ARK's $7k - $15k target was accepted en mass as a given.
Yes, Tesla will survive and thrive, while all other OEM that are not entrenched in EVs (all but China OEM) will go bankrupt or need bailouts. However to use an analogy, I see a pot hole in the road ahead. It is filled with water so we don't know how deep the pothole is until we drive into it, and it can't be avoided going at the speed we are traveling. Maybe it is an inch deep and is no cause for concern, or 6" deep which would cause a tire blow out. I've decided to slow down and go around the pothole and rejoin the journey after the pothole is in my rear view mirror. Sure, I may find myself playing catch-up, but by reducing my risk I know I will not end up in the ditch. Slowing down does not mean that I am out of the race for the long term. Simply taking care to preseve my assets. And if the pothole is much bigger than projected, I just may need those assets a little earlier.
Tesla is supply restraint. COVID-19 is preventing Tesla from growing as fast as they are able. I see TSLA going down up to 50% from here before rebounding back to $800 by end of 2020 and advancing at 30% per year for the forseeable future. Tesla has already won, just a matter of time.
I see many other OEM going bankrupt. They have a demand problem. All the Dealership lots are full (hundreds of unsold cars in each lot). Even when manufacturing resumes, they may not be able to sell to their Dealer network which must first unload the cars they already have, some at a financial loss. It is not going to be pretty. Peak auto has happened.
Mods. TMC, 2019 & 2020 Investors' Roundtale thread is broken. I spent a month reading this weekends' posts. Very glad to see a lot of old time TMC members voicing their concerns/comments. Those that post dozens of times a day have highjacked this thread, currently unreadable. I'll do my part. This will be my last post until when I buy back in, expecting August at the earlierst.
PS. My 20% invested in TSLA is in my Wife's accounts. She does not follow Tesla, TSLA, TMC, has no knowledge of the recent twitter storm and quite frankly couldn't care less, she just loves her M3. She wonders why I spend so long on TMC and does not know the share price from one month to the next. She is the smart one. I need to learn from her. Maybe her accounts will be more than mine some day which will suit me just fine. I'm now going out for a bike ride with my kids. Wishing everone the best life has to offer. Say healthy. Stay safe. Give back to those who have less. Life is good.
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