Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

I'd be down with a production facility.....but headquarters? No.

I don't believe there is much competition for HQ unless a factory is included. HQ is just an office (not even development).

 

[HG Wells]

Interesting breakdown of where profits go in entire automotive chain.

That data is 22 years old. Maybe some things changed in the mean time.

Nothing ever changes in the auto industry. / S

 

[lklundin]

Since I have previously been a frequent poster here, I wanted to let everyone know that this week I have closed all my positions (Stock, options, warrants...) - because an opportunity to realize a long term (non-automotive) dream presented itself.

Capital gains taxes not withstanding I ended up "only" with a 3-bagger. Still pretty good. In reality, it will naturally be less.

It is obviously out of my hands, but it will be ironic if my tax money is spent by the German government to invigorate their domestic (and not very electric) auto industry.

Godspeed to you all.

Signing off,
lklundin

 

[AlMc]

Since I have previously been a frequent poster here, I wanted to let everyone know that this week I have closed all my positions (Stock, options, warrants...) - because an opportunity to realize a long term (non-automotive) dream presented itself.

Capital gains taxes not withstanding I ended up "only" with a 3-bagger. Still pretty good. In reality, it will naturally be less.

It is obviously out of my hands, but it will be ironic if my tax money is spent by the German government to invigorate their domestic (and not very electric) auto industry.

Godspeed to you all.

Signing off,
lklundin

Sorry to see you go. Best of luck with all your endeavors.

 

[HG Wells]

Since I have previously been a frequent poster here, I wanted to let everyone know that this week I have closed all my positions (Stock, options, warrants...) - because an opportunity to realize a long term (non-automotive) dream presented itself.

Capital gains taxes not withstanding I ended up "only" with a 3-bagger. Still pretty good. In reality, it will naturally be less.

It is obviously out of my hands, but it will be ironic if my tax money is spent by the German government to invigorate their domestic (and not very electric) auto industry.

Godspeed to you all.

Signing off,
lklundin

Drop by once in a while.
We will miss you !

 

[Jack6591]

Texas on the surface seems like an ideal spot for the next Gigafactory, OK might not be that bad either, but the reason these two are so attractive is rapidly disappearing.

Texas oil & gas paid $16.3 BILLION into state and local tax coffers. How long is that going to hold up now that oil demand has likely peaked for good? Both TX and OK will be looking at billions in evaporated revenue, all while good paying jobs go the way of coal mining.

What is all that gonna look like in 2025? Corporate taxes will HAVE to go up a lot, and moving a family to these states might be unpalatable to engineers with infinitely more options in CA than exist in 2020. I'd be down with a production facility.....but headquarters? No.

Elon is Tesla leadership, and the central figure of Tesla’s headquarters. He has never been geographically constrained. He has already disrupted the concept of a traditional corporate headquarters.

 

[StealthP3D]

Here's a new blog post for anybody who's bored this weekend:

My TSLA Investment Strategy

This blog contains:

• A deep dive on how to construct an investment strategy
• My investment strategy
• Detailed predictions for Tesla and TSLA for the next 2.5 years
• A deep dive into options trading

Incredibly detailed Frank! You've outdone yourself again!

There is plenty to take exception to there in terms of specifics but you do make it clear the numbers provided are just examples and everyone's situation is different. But I will mention the one glaring thing to me, at least as an American, the example costs for health insurance (annual) seem completely wacko, as if they are typos. I realize the U.S. has the highest health costs in the world (by far) but, even considering that, I can't reconcile the three figures you give for "minimum", "comfortable", and "wildest dream" of $250, $400 and $600 annually.

My wife and I have pretty crappy insurance (doesn't cover prescriptions and has a high annual deductible of $3,000 before it covers much of anything) it's really just catastrophic insurance (although it's deemed a "Silver" plan under ACA) and I have my doubts how well it would work in practice if we needed to use it. Fortunately, we are both healthy with no major issues. But we pay over $1700 every single month! And we still have to pay out of pocket for practically everything until we spend over $3,000/year each person. While I realize other countries have it much better, I'm having trouble understanding how $600 a year (in your "wildest dreams) scenario) covers much more than a check-up visit. If we stay perfectly healthy and don't visit the doctor at all and don't take any drugs, we are already up to over $20,000/year. And, yes, I have shopped around for a better deal. There aren't any (other than going uninsured and hoping for the best).

 

[AlMc]

Incredibly detailed Frank! You've outdone yourself again!

There is plenty to take exception to there in terms of specifics but you do make it clear the numbers provided are just examples and everyone's situation is different. But I will mention the one glaring thing to me, at least as an American, the example costs for health insurance (annual) seem completely wacko, as if they are typos. I realize the U.S. has the highest health costs in the world (by far) but, even considering that, I can't reconcile the three figures you give for "minimum", "comfortable", and "wildest dream" of $250, $400 and $600 annually.

My wife and I have pretty crappy insurance (doesn't cover prescriptions and has a high annual deductible of $3,000 before it covers much of anything) it's really just catastrophic insurance (although it's deemed a "Silver" plan under ACA) and I have my doubts how well it would work in practice if we needed to use it. Fortunately, we are both healthy with no major issues. But we pay over $1700 every single month! And we still have to pay out of pocket for practically everything until we spend over $3,000/year each person. While I realize other countries have it much better, I'm having trouble understanding how $600 a year (in your "wildest dreams) scenario) covers much more than a check-up visit. If we stay perfectly healthy and don't visit the doctor at all and don't take any drugs, we are already up to over $20,000/year. And, yes, I have shopped around for a better deal. There aren't any (other than going uninsured and hoping for the best).

Not to get too far off topic,,,but,,,Yes, health insurance figures are 'a miss', IMO. Even before the ACA I was paying just over 1.5K/mo for my family of three. Last year we paid out 2.2k/mo for coverage with higher deductibles and poorer prescription coverage.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Incredibly detailed Frank! You've outdone yourself again!

There is plenty to take exception to there in terms of specifics but you do make it clear the numbers provided are just examples and everyone's situation is different. But I will mention the one glaring thing to me, at least as an American, the example costs for health insurance (annual) seem completely wacko, as if they are typos. I realize the U.S. has the highest health costs in the world (by far) but, even considering that, I can't reconcile the three figures you give for "minimum", "comfortable", and "wildest dream" of $250, $400 and $600 annually.

My wife and I have pretty crappy insurance (doesn't cover prescriptions and has a high annual deductible of $3,000 before it covers much of anything) it's really just catastrophic insurance (although it's deemed a "Silver" plan under ACA) and I have my doubts how well it would work in practice if we needed to use it. Fortunately, we are both healthy with no major issues. But we pay over $1700 every single month! And we still have to pay out of pocket for practically everything until we spend over $3,000/year each person. While I realize other countries have it much better, I'm having trouble understanding how $600 a year (in your "wildest dreams) scenario) covers much more than a check-up visit. If we stay perfectly healthy and don't visit the doctor at all and don't take any drugs, we are already up to over $20,000/year. And, yes, I have shopped around for a better deal. There aren't any (other than going uninsured and hoping for the best).

I'm pretty sure Frank is not an American and doesn't live in the US.

As an example. Living in Sweden I pay zero health insurance (some of my regular income tax is of course used for health costs). If I actually get sick I think I have to pay around $20 per visit. Doesn't matter if it's a slight problem or a heartattack. It might be per day, not sure, haven't visited a hospital as an adult.

For most non Americans I think health cost would be more associated with cost of medicine. But even so I think there is a max cost here of around $600 per year. After that it's free (well, paid by all tax payers of course)

 

[DaveT]

Here's a new blog post for anybody who's bored this weekend:

My TSLA Investment Strategy

This blog contains:

• A deep dive on how to construct an investment strategy
• My investment strategy
• Detailed predictions for Tesla and TSLA for the next 2.5 years
• A deep dive into options trading

Thanks for sharing @FrankSG. It was a good read.

 

[juanmedina]

Incredibly detailed Frank! You've outdone yourself again!

There is plenty to take exception to there in terms of specifics but you do make it clear the numbers provided are just examples and everyone's situation is different. But I will mention the one glaring thing to me, at least as an American, the example costs for health insurance (annual) seem completely wacko, as if they are typos. I realize the U.S. has the highest health costs in the world (by far) but, even considering that, I can't reconcile the three figures you give for "minimum", "comfortable", and "wildest dream" of $250, $400 and $600 annually.

My wife and I have pretty crappy insurance (doesn't cover prescriptions and has a high annual deductible of $3,000 before it covers much of anything) it's really just catastrophic insurance (although it's deemed a "Silver" plan under ACA) and I have my doubts how well it would work in practice if we needed to use it. Fortunately, we are both healthy with no major issues. But we pay over $1700 every single month! And we still have to pay out of pocket for practically everything until we spend over $3,000/year each person. While I realize other countries have it much better, I'm having trouble understanding how $600 a year (in your "wildest dreams) scenario) covers much more than a check-up visit. If we stay perfectly healthy and don't visit the doctor at all and don't take any drugs, we are already up to over $20,000/year. And, yes, I have shopped around for a better deal. There aren't any (other than going uninsured and hoping for the best).

Like you say it depends on everyone's situation. My parents have really low retirement income and they only pay $300-200 a month under ACA. With the ACA plan they got to keep the same doctors and it is as good as the plan that they had through my father previous employer Caterpillar. My father suffers from Trigeminal Neuralagia and he had two essentially brain surguries and so far everything is been great.

I think Frank is using the Obamacare subsidy calculator to get his estimates. On his spreadsheet his annual withdrawals are small compared to what some people spent in a year in this forum.

 

[juanmedina]

Here's a new blog post for anybody who's bored this weekend:

My TSLA Investment Strategy

This blog contains:

• A deep dive on how to construct an investment strategy
• My investment strategy
• Detailed predictions for Tesla and TSLA for the next 2.5 years
• A deep dive into options trading

Great blog Frank. I enjoyed the part about financial independence and goals. I am in the minimalist kind of early retirement group and Tesla is making it happen faster than I could ever imagine. We are really close and hoping to get there in two years if everything goes well. COVID has given a chance to get a glimpse into ER and it's been great even though we are still working from home and with two little kids. We can't wait to pull the trigger.

With your bear case of 74,500 deliveries for Q2 (Troy 79,000 and Rob Maurer 83,000) what do you think that will do for the SP if they are lower than Q1? We will get a pass because of COVID.

 

[Steve m]

Texas on the surface seems like an ideal spot for the next Gigafactory, OK might not be that bad either, but the reason these two are so attractive is rapidly disappearing.

Texas oil & gas paid $16.3 BILLION into state and local tax coffers. How long is that going to hold up now that oil demand has likely peaked for good? Both TX and OK will be looking at billions in evaporated revenue, all while good paying jobs go the way of coal mining.

What is all that gonna look like in 2025? Corporate taxes will HAVE to go up a lot, and moving a family to these states might be unpalatable to engineers with infinitely more options in CA than exist in 2020. I'd be down with a production facility.....but headquarters? No.

You don't have to move engineering to Texas just because you move HQ. There also aren't infinitely more jobs in CA then Texas. CA also goes through recessions where engineers can be out of work for some time. It happened in the early 1990s ,it happened again in the late 1990s, it happened again in around 2008.

Hiring engineers into CA can also be difficult. They look at cost of living and stay where they were.

I am ok with moving HQ there. I am ok with spreading development out.

I am happy to let Elon make this decision.

 

[lafrisbee]

You don't have to move engineering to Texas just because you move HQ. There also aren't infinitely more jobs in CA then Texas. CA also goes through recessions where engineers can be out of work for some time. It happened in the early 1990s ,it happened again in the late 1990s, it happened again in around 2008.

Hiring engineers into CA can also be difficult. They look at cost of living and stay where they were.

I am ok with moving HQ there. I am ok with spreading development out.

I am happy to let Elon make this decision.

I've stated before. I know engineers. We are different and friends...well the good guy engineers and I are friends. They will travel to be part of the solution for a problem they find interesting (or if it is important as a whole). The where isn't important to them. They seem to find enough of society's comforts wherever they choose to work.
I do know they like a big fat paycheck, and they can do the math when it comes to taxation at the Cali-rate.

 

[ZeApelido]

Since I have previously been a frequent poster here, I wanted to let everyone know that this week I have closed all my positions (Stock, options, warrants...) - because an opportunity to realize a long term (non-automotive) dream presented itself.

Capital gains taxes not withstanding I ended up "only" with a 3-bagger. Still pretty good. In reality, it will naturally be less.

It is obviously out of my hands, but it will be ironic if my tax money is spent by the German government to invigorate their domestic (and not very electric) auto industry.

Godspeed to you all.

Signing off,
lklundin

Obviously you became an accredited investor and put all the money into SpaceX.

 

[MC3OZ]

Coronavirus : 100.000 voitures neuves bloquées dans le port de Zeebrugge

More than 100,000 new cars are blocked in the port of Zeebrugge, said Tuesday the handler International Car Operators (ICO), confirming information from the specialized site Flows. In the meantime, several additional areas have been freed for storage. Several stocks were also transferred to the interior of the country and to the port city of Cuxhaven in northern Germany.

If you are wondering about Tesla shipping cars to Europe Q2 congestion at Zebugge and possibly other ports, might be an issue.

IMO there is some chance of smaller lots of cars being delivered by container ships, or smaller ships, from the US East Coast to alternative non-congested ports. But that would merely be "topping up inventory".

Then there is a possible "Osborne Effect" for EU VAT changes..... so modelling EU Q2 deliveries as selling down inventory seems like a conservative approach.

I still think Tesla may end Q2 with lower inventory levels than at the end of Q1, so effectively selling more than they produce in Q2.
Asian and North American deliveries can help, as logistics are likely to be much smoother.

My hunch is by around July/August ports will be unclogged, logistics will mostly be back to normal, but it is going to take time to find a parking spot for 100,000 cars.

 

[FrankSG]

Incredibly detailed Frank! You've outdone yourself again!

There is plenty to take exception to there in terms of specifics but you do make it clear the numbers provided are just examples and everyone's situation is different. But I will mention the one glaring thing to me, at least as an American, the example costs for health insurance (annual) seem completely wacko, as if they are typos. I realize the U.S. has the highest health costs in the world (by far) but, even considering that, I can't reconcile the three figures you give for "minimum", "comfortable", and "wildest dream" of $250, $400 and $600 annually.

My wife and I have pretty crappy insurance (doesn't cover prescriptions and has a high annual deductible of $3,000 before it covers much of anything) it's really just catastrophic insurance (although it's deemed a "Silver" plan under ACA) and I have my doubts how well it would work in practice if we needed to use it. Fortunately, we are both healthy with no major issues. But we pay over $1700 every single month! And we still have to pay out of pocket for practically everything until we spend over $3,000/year each person. While I realize other countries have it much better, I'm having trouble understanding how $600 a year (in your "wildest dreams) scenario) covers much more than a check-up visit. If we stay perfectly healthy and don't visit the doctor at all and don't take any drugs, we are already up to over $20,000/year. And, yes, I have shopped around for a better deal. There aren't any (other than going uninsured and hoping for the best).

Thanks man! Glad you liked it!

The actual numbers in the "financial freedom" spreadsheet were not meant to be accurate, and I spent very little time on them. As I mention in the blog, it'd be impossible to create one that applies to all sorts of different life styles. The spreadsheet is meant to show the method for how to calculate the amount needed to financial freedom, not give the answer to how much is actually needed.

Looking at my actual spreadsheet, I have it in between 500 SGD and 1,000 SGD, which has held true for me in the past. When I lived in Japan, I believe I paid ~500 USD per year, and I believe my health insurance in The Netherlands was fairly similar, but when I lived in London it was free (god bless the UK ).

I've coincidentally been looking into different worldwide health insurances (excl. USA ) the last few days, and I will be paying about $800 per year. But that includes a ~$6500 deductible and excludes outpatient. But again, just like every thing else, different people have access to and have different preferences for health insurance, so it'd be impossible for me to create a one size fits all spreadsheet. It's just meant to show the method on how to calculate financial freedom for oneself.

 

[FrankSG]

Great blog Frank. I enjoyed the part about financial independence and goals. I am in the minimalist kind of early retirement group and Tesla is making it happen faster than I could ever imagine. We are really close and hoping to get there in two years if everything goes well. COVID has given a chance to get a glimpse into ER and it's been great even though we are still working from home and with two little kids. We can't wait to pull the trigger.

With your bear case of 74,500 deliveries for Q2 (Troy 79,000 and Rob Maurer 83,000) what do you think that will do for the SP if they are lower than Q1? We will get a pass because of COVID.

That's great that TSLA is allowing you to get closer and closer to your investment goals!

I forgot to explicitly mention this in the blog, but I think it's extremely hard to accurately predict Q2 as of right now. After the official P&D, I'll spend some more time on Q2 numbers, and post a blog about Q2'20 ER Forecast.

I'd think deliveries of >80k would be interpreted as positive by the market if anything. It'd mean that even in the worst of COVID-19 with its biggest factory being shut down for half the quarter, Tesla barely did worse than before.

But after seeing Q4'19 ER, I thought we'd stay pretty steady, and after seeing Q1'20 ER, I thought we'd rally at least a little higher throughout the quarter, so I could be completely off. I don't know exactly the thinking of big money on Wall Street, so this is just speculation.

 

[FrankSG]

Thanks for sharing @FrankSG. It was a good read.

Thanks @DaveT !

I love your YouTube videos too, so keep them coming!

 

[CyberDutchie]

Here's a new blog post for anybody who's bored this weekend:

My TSLA Investment Strategy

This blog contains:

• A deep dive on how to construct an investment strategy
• My investment strategy
• Detailed predictions for Tesla and TSLA for the next 2.5 years
• A deep dive into options trading

Great blog, @FrankSG thanks for sharing. One question regarding options strategy:

You calculate ROI based on # of shares, not money gain. But, you base this on at expiration date, when time premium value has gone to zero. Why not sell the options 3 months prior to expiration and capture a decent premium in addition to the intrinsic value?