Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[PeterJA]

Good reason for Elon not to pick fights with Jeff of Amazon.

A few thoughts:

1) The rivalry and apparent animosity between Jeff Bezos and Elon predates by many years the recent tweets from Elon about Amazon. I don't know who started it, but one might say Jeff "picked a fight" with Tesla when he ordered 100k electric vans from Rivian (a startup with no released products yet), instead of the leader in electric vehicles.

2) The van market is much bigger than just Amazon, so the "fight" seems unlikely to hurt Tesla.

3) If you mean Elon shouldn't criticize Amazon at all, I disagree, partly because of #2 and partly because Elon's principled candor endears him to many people.

4) Amazon has a history of squeezing every possible penny out of operation costs, so if Tesla produces a significantly better van than Rivian (which seems likely), Jeff might buy them for business reasons despite his feelings about Elon.

In short, I don't think Elon's Amazon tweets were foolish emotional outbursts, of which he is often accused.

 

[Curt Renz]

Barron's (not Baron) - Feb 28: Why Tesla Could Be Worth $1.5 Trillion by 2030, According to Ron Baron

Excerpt of Ron Baron:

It’s just starting. We purchased nearly all our shares from 2014 to 2016: 1.62 million shares at an average price of $219.14. Our cost was $355 million. We were widely criticized. Last summer, the stock was something like $230. Now it has tripled. The company went from annual revenue of $2.5 billion in 2013 to $25 billion last year. This year, it could reach $33 billion. In 2024, Tesla could have $100 billion to $125 billion in revenue, and be worth $300 to $400 billion. It is now selling for $150 billion. That is only the beginning. In 2030, it could have revenue of $750 billion to $1 trillion, with operating profit of $150 billion to $200 billion. By then, Tesla could be worth $1.5 trillion, ultimately putting it among the largest and most valuable companies in the world.

 

[jerry33]

Their paws?

It's the cat ears.

 

[Tslynk67]

Indeed, though the manipulation is partly why I feel somewhat comfortable with selling short term covered calls. I know there are some powerful forces on that side...

Absolutely, read the tea-leaves (open-interest charts), find the points of resistance, decide your personal risk level, and you're all set! It's free money, week after week...

 

[pyromatter]

 

[Artful Dodger]

So now the excitement is over whether the close will be $874.90 or $875.10...?

No manipulation though, eh?

Lol, maybe just a tad of manipulation from 10:54 to 11:17 hrs (5x macros):

Cheers!

 

[Unpilot]

So now the excitement is over whether the close will be $874.90 or $875.10...?

No manipulation though, eh?

Not aging well so far

 

[Tslynk67]

Not aging well so far

My original prediction was $885, so maybe that was the right call... Wait and see, eh?

 

[SO16]

A few thoughts:

1) The rivalry and apparent animosity between Jeff Bezos and Elon predates by many years the recent tweets from Elon about Amazon. I don't know who started it, but one might say Jeff "picked a fight" with Tesla when he ordered 100k electric vans from Rivian (a startup with no released products yet), instead of the leader in electric vehicles.

2) The van market is much bigger than just Amazon, so the "fight" seems unlikely to hurt Tesla.

3) If you mean Elon shouldn't criticize Amazon at all, I disagree, partly because of #2 and partly because Elon's principled candor endears him to many people.

4) Amazon has a history of squeezing every possible penny out of operation costs, so if Tesla produces a significantly better van than Rivian (which seems likely), Jeff might buy them for business reasons despite his feelings about Elon.

In short, I don't think Elon's Amazon tweets were foolish emotional outbursts, of which he is often accused.

The absurd patent By blue origins of landing rockets probably had more to do with it.

Blue Origin’s rocket-landing patent canceled in victory for SpaceX

 

[EinSV]

The full Dan Neil Model Y review is available, and well worth a read. See the first post in this thread: Is Tesla Model-Y the World’s Best Car? : teslainvestorsclub

 

[jhm]

Yeah, I find it really lame that these stratospherically rich individuals, who are obviously very smart and capable, feel the need to take chunks out of each-other in public.

We're all trash. Having more cash don't change that.

 

[Tslynk67]

We're all trash. Having more cash don't change that.

Talk about yourself, dude

 

[StealthP3D]

Yeah, I find it really lame that these stratospherically rich individuals, who are obviously very smart and capable, feel the need to take chunks out of each-other in public.

Being financially well-endowed does not save one from the same human trials, emotions and disputes that people with less money have. It's completely unrelated.

It would be like a hairless cat saying, "It's really lame that those felines with luxurious coats of beautiful fur can't get along with other cats with beautiful coats. With all that fur you would think they wouldn't have a need to be territorial anymore!"

 

[Causalien]

Agreed, that was a once-in-a-lifetime trade and although I did really well out of it, with a little more experience I would be retired now.

But I'm not complaining either, as long as one learns from such experiences...

I don't believe anyone can have more experience than anybody else on this one. If my memory serves, there were only one other time where TSLA was at 1.2 volatility. An interesting note out of all these, I was looking through other stocks today while tallying the aftermath and reviewing what I could've done better, I was surprised to find that some traditional stock also rose to 1.6 volatility. There were way way more stocks that suffered less swing (and safer) where we could've sold options and earned the same thing.

 

[elasalle]

Agreed, that was a once-in-a-lifetime trade and although I did really well out of it, with a little more experience I would be retired now.

But I'm not complaining either, as long as one learns from such experiences...

If you were more experienced, you would be looking constantly at your risk/reward and would have closed your position earlier

It's easier now to think that Tesla might reach $3K, then it was to think Tesla might reach $600 by now last year.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Got a good feeling about Monday.

 

[Tslynk67]

I don't believe anyone can have more experience than anybody else on this one. If my memory serves, there were only one other time where TSLA was at 1.2 volatility. An interesting note out of all these, I was looking through other stocks today while tallying the aftermath and reviewing what I could've done better, I was surprised to find that some traditional stock also rose to 1.6 volatility. There were way way more stocks that suffered less swing (and safer) where we could've sold options and earned the same thing.

In this case it was more a lack of deep understanding on my side on how options actually operated. To anyone with some knowledge this was obviously a super-crazy price, as it was, I thought it was "worth a gamble"... lucky really. Now I'm a bit less wet behind the ears...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

My original prediction was $885, so maybe that was the right call... Wait and see, eh?

So....what's your prediction for Monday and the rest of the year??

 

[phantasms]

My original prediction was $885, so maybe that was the right call... Wait and see, eh?

 

[Tslynk67]

So....what's your prediction for Monday and the rest of the year??

Monday will spike, this is the case 95% of the time. Of course *this* Monday might be one of the 5%

I can't predict the rest of the year, but on Tuesday I'll bet my left nut on Friday's close... Can already say it will be below $900, but need the options to re-jig Monday/Tuesday.

Don't get me wrong, HODL is a fabulous strategy, but if you're buying calls, FFS be aware that you're playing the house, and it isn't in your favour.