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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Well it's based on the fact that we've been kept in a trading channel by Citadel Capital for month of May... Plus I want to increase my core shares, so I sell (normally) safe covered calls against them, and buy more shares with the premium. I absolutely do not want my core shares to be called away, but I'm happy to take advantage of the manipulation.

My trading account is another matter and considering it was at $3k in September and is now $225k, I think some of my choices have been quite OK :D
Dang, how many Puts and Covered Calls did you sell ? :)
 
In The Netherlands we build all our buildings on concrete piles, which get driven through 8-12 meters of soft peat soil (and sometimes even slide through it, the weight of the piles is enough to do that). The piles then reach a sand layer, which is strong enough to support the piles and the buildings on top of them. The GF3 site, close to the sea, seems to have a foundation built that way. At the GF4 site the sand layer is already at the surface (after removal of a few feet of forest soil). I think that removes the need for piling, except for maybe the heaviest structures. It would save Tesla time and money.

I'd need to see the borehole logs to understand the conditions in Germany, but piles whether they are timber, concrete, or, steel are normally required for heavy loads in soft soils through skin friction or end bearing capacity, or reaching a competent layer... if one exists. I suspect there is no peat here, just a decently thick sand layer (and maybe some coal deep down :D) that provides enough strength and has low compressibility. Not familiar with the German seismic zones, but things are far different out here (I'm working in Vancouver) where we have 8-12m+ peat layers and bad seismic conditions which leads to all sorts of exotic solutions. Just be thankful no pre-loading (Squeezing the water out of lower soil layers with massive quantities of sand/soil) or ground densification is required for these projects as that takes a very long time and there are unfortunately limited solutions available to speed things up. I think the loading for a factory is relatively light compared to the bridges and large embankments I normally work with.

I wish I had the technical ability to add annotations to the video, as it would be a cool feature for folks and it seems like this commentary is useful.

I would expect structural steel to start arriving in a few weeks, and a modular type build-out that allows the various trades to avoid being on top of each other. It was truly amazing to see how Shanghai came together with so many folks in close proximity. Very well organized operation. Does anyone know how closely the proposed design mirrors GF1? Tesla may be able to really crank these factories out if there is more/less a GF template they can apply worldwide.
 
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The 10 annoying things ... what a joke. I‘d like to stop people testing things they don‘t understand. Is it too much to ask to RTFM before testing something? Anything? Better to stay silent and people suspect your might be dumb, than to speak up and remove all doubts. 90% on YT belongs in this category.
 
I'd need to see the borehole logs to understand the conditions in Germany, but piles whether they are timber, concrete, or, steel are normally required for heavy loads in soft soils through skin friction or end bearing capacity, or reaching a competent layer... if one exists. I suspect there is no peat here, just a decently thick sand layer (and maybe some coal deep down :D) that provides enough strength and has low compressibility. Not familiar with the German seismic zones, but things are far different out here (I'm working in Vancouver) where we have 8-12m+ peat layers and bad seismic conditions which leads to all sorts of exotic solutions. Just be thankful no pre-loading (Squeezing the water out of lower soil layers with massive quantities of sand/soil) or ground densification is required for these projects as that takes a very long time and there are unfortunately limited solutions available to speed things up. I think the loading for a factory is relatively light compared to the bridges and large embankments I normally work with.

I wish I had the technical ability to add annotations to the video, as it would be a cool feature for folks and it seems like this commentary is useful.

I would expect structural steel to start arriving in a few weeks, and a modular type build-out that allows the various trades to avoid being on top of each other. It was truly amazing to see how Shanghai came together with some many folks in close proximity. Very well organized operation. Does anyone know how closely the proposed design mirrors GF1? Tesla may be able to really crank these factories out if there is more/less a GF template they can apply worldwide.
No seismic zones near Berlin.

Link
 
A thought.
I think the 900/917 range will be defended vigorously until July when delivery numbers are released. .. cheers!!

A week ago I was wondering out loud if we're really going to be stuck in the 800's when the Nasdaq breaks it's all time high. And the answer is a big resounding Yes!

It's frustrating for sure. I get what's happening with options but still amazed at the lack of buying volume while the overall market is rallying hard. Given that the macro's are rallying hard today and there's still no buying volume coming in, I'm inclined to believe that yes we aren't moving up into the 900's and higher until Q2 P/D.

Hopefully this is all just coiling the spring for a big rally in July. The main risk is that macro's decide to pull a reversal and thus there is no rally in Tesla shares.
 
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Wasn't there a story a few days back of GM? - I think it was GM - going for vans now, because they wanted to get ahead of Tesla?

OK, I just googled, and yes, here it is: "GM’s move has been cast as a strategy to get ahead of Tesla in the commercial marketplace." :rolleyes::D
I actually think that's something they or Ford could do with some mild success. A rolling box with hyper efficient, low performance EV drivetrain might be a good place for them to start. Harder to mess up. Build it at scale, sell it for cost, and go from there.
 
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A week ago I was wondering out loud if we're really going to be stuck in the 800's when the Nasdaq breaks it's all time high. And the answer is a big resounding Yes!

It's frustrating for sure. I get what's happening with options but still amazed at the lack of buying volume while the overall market is rallying hard. Given that the macro's are rallying hard today and there's still no buying volume coming in, I'm inclined to believe that yes we aren't moving up into the 900's and higher until Q2 P/D.

Hopefully this is all just coiling the spring for a big rally in July. The main risk is that macro's decide to pull a reversal and thus there is no rally in Tesla shares.
Take a look at the chart, this is the very nature of TSLA. It's held down for various reasons for periods of time ranging from 2 months to 3 years. The coiled spring ALWAYS releases at some point and the wider market wonders, "How is this happening??!?"

You can try to time it with options, people have made money that way, but it's far easier to buy and walk away.

Edit to add: Personally I don't see us having a big run-up this summer. Look at the volume so far, all the big institutions are off on vacation. Maybe approach $1,000 at some point before Labor Day, or even cross, but I bet it settles back down around $900.
 
Take a look at the chart, this is the very nature of TSLA. It's held down for various reasons for periods of time ranging from 2 months to 3 years. The coiled spring ALWAYS releases at some point and the wider market wonders, "How is this happening??!?"

You can try to time it with options, people have made money that way, but it's far easier to buy and walk away.

Don't get me wrong, as long as this continues, I'm going to continue moving funds around to buy more shares. Bought more yesterday(though at 875), will be buying more chucks of shares on Monday and Wed, and moving funds to buy more the following week after that. Once the share price decides to make it's move, I'll hold off on my buying.
 
Dang, how many Puts and Covered Calls did you sell ? :)

The first $140k was the Jan $675's I (like many others here) bought for $1.

Where my lack of experience let me down is that I only bought 10 of them and sold 5 when they were $76 - the other 5 at $220 when the SP was above $900 in February.

And some other adventures since then :confused:
 
More details on Tesla vans:

1) Elon hinted about van development in November 2018.

2) Conservative assumptions suggest $9B annually in potential van sales, according to Steven.


3) Vans are the last major vehicle market for Tesla to target, and much larger than the pickup truck market, according to another observer.


Making a van makes sense. It could be used by the Boring company to transport people, and Tesla can sell them to everyone. It's a win win for Tesla and BC.
 
Does anyone know how closely the proposed design mirrors GF1? Tesla may be able to really crank these factories out if there is more/less a GF template they can apply worldwide.
Well obviously, without a vehicle assembly line, paint or body shop, GF1 (Sparks, NV) is NOT the template... ;)

GF3 (Shanghai) is likely the prototype, perhaps phase 2 a/b are the latest versions.

Anyway, expect GF4 (Berlin) to be the most advanced, and 3 more phased to come, likely at the pace of 1/yr.

Cheers!

P.S. Thanks for your insights into soils compaction. It's good to have a civil engineer in the fold... ;)