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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I sold 1200 weekly calls this morning. Lucky timing and got 2.33. I’m ok sitting on 1200. If we blow up to 1500, I’ll sell 1200 puts and hope we come back down. I think 1000 is in range, and like the number 1024. I don’t see a sustainable breakout above 1150 this week. Won’t begrudge anyone or root against a huge rally, but up $64 is awesome.

I agree -- 1,000 feels like it could be ripe for the taking this week, but a big round number like that triggers a lot of psychological resistance and there's always the question of where the manipulators will draw their line in the sand.

Beyond that, I have a hard time seeing the stock break above 1,100 by Friday -- that would be about a 25% increase over Friday's close. Even during the halcyon days of the rally earlier this year, by my recollection the largest M-F increase in closing price was the week of Jan 27th, for approximately 20% or 110pts, and that was late in that rally as things were getting squeezy. (The next week saw an intraweek high that was approximately 50% over the previous Friday's close! But as we all know that got walked wayyyyy down by Friday close.)
 
This stock price action has been crazy. :eek: It's currently $14 below my very first sell order, which I put in back in march when the SP was in the $500's. Haha, now I'm going to have to figure out the tax payment for the sell order, which I wasn't expecting until much closer to my Tesla purchase!

Consider buying PUTS at the SP you want to lock in for your req'd sale price. Fund the PUTS with a small sale now. Pay for the PUTS with your tax savings when you buy you car. Make sure you allow enough lead time for the transaction to close, the funds to xfer from your broker then to Texla, and add a fudge factor for ijots. :p

If you don't make $$ on the PUTS, I think that means the SP went up, and you made money on shares by waiting to sell until you're ready for your Model S. Consider it 'peace-of-mind' insurance for your TSLA capital.

Cheers!
 
This illustrates a basic weakness that the Tesla brand has: it is too strongly tied to the person of Elon Musk. Elon is the brand. The downside risk here is that, if anything trashes Elon's image, especially things the man does himself, this rebounds to impact the Tesla brand as well. Additionally, to the extent that Elon is polarizing persona, this also limits the scope of the brand. If Tesla wants to be selling 20M vehicles per year by 2030, the Tesla brand may need to evolve beyond a personality cult. Some businesses like the Disney Corporation have been able to navigate this. It helps, though, that Walt Disney the person is no longer alive, because the memory of Disney can be revered with nostalgia as befits the brand today. But so long as Elon is alive he is both a benefit and risk to the Tesla brand.

Well, okay. But what else is there left for him to do?

He’s caused a ruckus on Twitter a number of times about a number of topics.
He’s gotten in trouble with the SEC.
He drank whiskey and took a puff *gasp* from a blunt in an interview.
He’s sworn during an ER call AND told an analyst from a big establishment that they asked boring questions and then cut him off the call and then reimagined ERs by having retail investors ask most of the questions.
He’s said TSLA share price is too high like 4? 5? times now.
He let his top designer break a window during a product reveal and then doubled down and had him break a second window.
He’s anti-sold his products.
He’s over-sold timelines.
He secured funding.
He joined a special committee for the President and then left it.
He’s danced on stage!
He threw out the ‘f’ word on Twitter not long ago and people freaked out and yet just a few weeks later suddenly many of those freaked out people are - well, I guess he had a point.

The list is quite literally endless and yet here we are. What sort of faux pas do you have in mind that could undo Tesla? I have a pretty good imagination and still can’t come up with anything he’s ‘likely’ ever to do that could do that.
 
Consider buying PUTS at the SP you want to lock in for your req'd sale price. Fund the PUTS with a small sale now. Pay for the PUTS with your tax savings when you buy you car. Make sure you allow enough lead time for the transaction to close, the funds to xfer from your broker then to Texla, and add a fudge factor for ijots. :p

If you don't make $$ on the PUTS, I think that means the SP went up, and you made money on shares by waiting to sell until you're ready for your Model S. Consider it 'peace-of-mind' insurance for your TSLA capital.

Cheers!

Yes... yes... I know some of these words. :eek:

Haha, I understand the over all idea, but I am not comfortable playing with options, largely also because they confuse me (particularly puts). I'll keep to my very simple plan of sell when I'm happy with the price the SP is at currently for my Tesla, then sell as needed when the time arrives regardless of SP. ;)
 
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Well, okay. But what else is there left for him to do?

He’s caused a ruckus on Twitter a number of times about a number of topics.
He’s gotten in trouble with the SEC.
He drank whiskey and took a puff *gasp* from a blunt in an interview.
He’s sworn during an ER call AND told an analyst from a big establishment that they asked boring questions and then cut him off the call and then reimagined ERs by having retail investors ask most of the questions.
He’s said TSLA share price is too high like 4? 5? times now.
He let his top designer break a window during a product reveal and then doubled down and had him break a second window.
He’s anti-sold his products.
He’s over-sold timelines.
He secured funding.
He joined a special committee for the President and then left it.
He’s danced on stage!
He threw out the ‘f’ word on Twitter not long ago and people freaked out and yet just a few weeks later suddenly many of those freaked out people are - well, I guess he had a point.

The list is quite literally endless and yet here we are. What sort of faux pas do you have in mind that could undo Tesla? I have a pretty good imagination and still can’t come up with anything he’s ‘likely’ ever to do that could do that.
One thing I do think he should be doing is taking better care of himself... granted, he's better now than in the last few years but Elon having a massive heart attack or developing a serious medical problem would be injurious to at least 4 companies (only one publicly traded however). I admire his work ethic, but damn I can't think of anybody that needs a vacation more than him. Plus he's got to get in better shape for the trip(s) to Mars...
 

Made this one in 2017. Still applicable, if you alter the Y-axis labeling a bit...

TeslaChartMay.jpg


Congrats to all the hodlers.
 
Yes... yes... I know some of these words. :eek:

Haha, I understand the over all idea, but I am not comfortable playing with options, largely also because they confuse me (particularly puts). I'll keep to my very simple plan of sell when I'm happy with the price the SP is at currently for my Tesla, then sell as needed when the time arrives regardless of SP. ;)

You’re way better off than me. I thought he was speaking Latin basket weaving.
 
Made an easy $2,000 day trading NKLA today. What a joke.
Not sure if I should be ok with it or keep worrying about all this funny money in the market.
At some point the music's got to stop, right? I'm not old enough to remember 1999 but I can remember Bitcoin in December 2017. Hard to imagine the entire stock market behaving the same way but it is.
 
Tesla would be worth a lot less if it had top of the class quality and customer service.

Here's why:

Tesla's valuation depends upon being able to make EV's viable (profitable). Remember during the Model 3 ramp that TSLA naysayers were claiming the more cars TSLA builds, the more money they lose? And also that it was "other people's money"? Tesla's valuation is largely a result of having proven those people dead wrong. While having every detail perfect and a customer service experience right out of "Fantasy Island" is great for sales, it costs a lot of money. You don't those things for free because it takes real people to make that happen and people are expensive. If Tesla sales were only constrained by how many they could sell (not how many they could make), then it would make good sense to spend money on those things to sell more cars because those higher volumes leverage the investments you have in vehicle development, production lines, Supercharger network and delivery and sales centers.

But, if you are a rapidly growing business limited only by your capacity to produce more product, those investments in customer service and making sure every detail is perfect have a negative impact on the bottom line and your ability to service debt without raising more money (other people's money) to make the whole thing sustainable.

You cannot argue that better customer service doesn't cost much money because it does. People are expensive. Tesla has chosen instead to make the cars a fantastic value vs. the competition. Because, while there are limits to how much lack of customer service owners will tolerate, there are even harder limits as to how much a lot of people will pay for a car (or are physically able to pay for a car). You don't get something for nothing and Tesla has chosen the path that will allow them to fulfill their mission more quickly by having the capital to expand rapidly.

If Tesla runs into a demand wall (that wouldn't otherwise exist had they spent hundreds of millions on top of the class customer service and making sure every detail was perfect) then you can argue they chose the wrong path. Until then it's pretty hard to make that case. Because TSLA would be worth a lot less if their financials reflected those things. Tesla is in demand because the products are so good and a value for what you get, not because they are perfect in every detail and customer service coddles owners as if they were more important than the mission.



And that was the right path to take when selling low volume cars that cost well north of 6 digits. IMO, second-guessing Elon tends to make people look foolish. Because he's the one making it work. When you have products this good selling at prices this low, there are some customers you just don't want or need. Because they are going to cost you too much. As volumes continue to rise, cost efficiencies will allow Tesla to spend more money on customer service to woo those segments of the market that need more coddling. We are still in the middle stages of the early adopter phase. Things are changing rapidly though, so as market share climbs, expect to see Tesla start to spend more money on customers and adopting a more liberal attitude as to how consequential a flaw needs to be in order to be considered an actual defect that is replaceable under warranty. Even then, I hope Tesla never gets to that sad place where if a customer tells the nice delivery or service specialist to "bark like a dog" that she/he will bark like a dog. People who think like that can go buy a cheap piece of crap with all the doo-dads and a high price for what you get. Tesla is focussed on value. A great product at a great price. And, yes, it's a balancing act to determine where to draw the line. Tesla is not blind to this fact.
My thinking is that Elon is thinking:
  1. EVs don't need much maintenance. His eternal optimism means that he thinks reliability etc. will improve dramatically and capacity doesn't need to be increased dramatically. He wants to provide a ~10th percentile level quality of service.
  2. The above pushes his teams to improve in all areas. Employees are share holders and have felt the pain of not getting it right. They are motivated to finding better ways of doing things.

FOMO is going to be a thing today.
Why is it that I want to buy higher strike price LEAPS when the SP is at ATH... June 22 1800s were up 25% today.

Herbert Diess has officially been ousted as CEO of VW. Now we will see, I guess.
This is great for VW group. Common platforms has been their USP up and until recently. Diess will have time to focus on pulling them together again.