Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I did the same and it was painful.

"Pain is temporary, Glory is forever."
▬ Alyce M. McKenzie, 1996

 

[Christine69420]

In today's world of Robinhood, fractional share buying, and zero commissions, most of the reasons for splitting a stock have gone the way of corded power drills:

Only if you are a big whale or live in the US/UK. In many countries fractional shares are unavailable. And for small time hobby investors like me there is no way I can buy for $1122 with every paycheck. And after 11-12 months of saving $100 I may have $1122 but what is the TSLA share price then? No more TSLA for me I guess.

NIO $7.88 - Chinese EV maker
VLKAF $159 - Volkswagen have a few EVs
NKLA $65 - Nikola is not very tempting
RNLSY $4.82 - Renault make the popular Zoe EV
NSANF $3.74 - The Nssan Leaf is an EV pioner

None of these are temping as a replacement for TSLA. But I did buy a little NIO.

Woodford Reserve 750ml $26.99 - now this is more promising! Are 4 a month enough?

 

[jeewee3000]

View attachment 559255
Bloomberg today published a list of analyst estimates for Q2 deliveries. As you can see, many of the bottom-feeders (analysts with ridiculously low price targets) were included, and they make up some of the highest estimates. Moreover, those delivery estimates are totally at odds with their dismally-low price targets. Clearly, someone is gaming the system, trying to jack up the delivery expectations at the last minute but not raising price targets.

* My price targets for the various analysts, on the left, may contain a few that are out of date. I did a quick Google search for them today.

Very interesting overview, thank you.

Funnily enough the inflated-deliveries-estimates by the bears are (hopefully) still way too low. If we beat all of them we don't have to wait for the 4th for fireworks!

 

[AlMc]

In response to twitter question about lithium supply..........

Elon Musk
@elonmusk

Replying to
@bipulh
All questions will be answered on Battery Day, Sept 15th. Will be webcast, although there is much to see in person.
4:38 PM · Jul 1, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

If a stock does split, what happens to the options that were purchased before the split, but sold after? Do the contents of the option also split, ie, there is 200 in a call/put in a 2:1 split?

TL;DR - yes. But read further for details.

I bought SCTY call options as an arbitrage play during the merger, so have direct experience here.

The option become a less-liquid "new" option that retains its original value, but becomes very hard to trade, because it's not listed as normal. For TDameritrade, they show up as "ns" (new stock?) options.

So if the stock splits 8:1, your option becomes a special option for 800 shares, instead of the usual 100. It should be valued accordingly, but because it's no longer well understood, the bid-ask gap becomes wider, so you'll lose a little more when selling.

Also, the auto-calculated gains/loss gets mucked up to the point that you have to calculate it yourself to be sure. Doing that for the 11 SCTY to 1 TSLA exchange was brutal!

 

[Tim S]

haha same. Didn't go on margin though, just sold some good ones that had nice runups.
Hats off to whoever timed the bottom at 180.

Almost. After catching falling knives for months, I borrowed against my 401K to close a margin call and buy these (last column is price paid)...

That is not a recommended strategy.

Just bought some more a few minutes ago at $1118.50. It's been a crazy 13 months!

Edit: Thanks to all the longs here who kept me buying and hodling! (And gambling a bit on options )

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Not only that, but...

BMW, VW, and Honda sales are down because they are all buying Teslas

 

[mongo]

TL;DR - yes. But read further for details.

I bought SCTY call options as an arbitrage play during the merger, so have direct experience here.

The option become a less-liquid "new" option that retains its original value, but becomes very hard to trade, because it's not listed as normal. For TDameritrade, they show up as "ns" (new stock?) options.

So if the stock splits 8:1, your option becomes a special option for 800 shares, instead of the usual 100. It should be valued accordingly, but because it's no longer well understood, the bid-ask gap becomes wider, so you'll lose a little more when selling.

Also, the auto-calculated gains/loss gets mucked up to the point that you have to calculate it yourself to be sure. Doing that for the 11 SCTY to 1 TSLA exchange was brutal!

ns-> non standard

SCTY was a reverse split resulting in 11 share options. Normal splits are handled by turning 1 option into 4,8, or whatever the multiple is. Fractional splits like 3 for 2 would also result in non standard options.
Option contract adjustments - Fidelity

 

[Causalien]

Almost. After catching falling knives for months, I borrowed against my 401K to close a margin call and buy these (last column is price paid)...

View attachment 559260

That is not a recommended strategy.

Just bought some more a few minutes ago at $1118.50. It's been a crazy 13 months!

Edit: Thanks to all the longs here who kept me buying and hodling! (And gambling a bit on options )

Majority of my recent trading buys are around the 420 area. But a double is good enough for me. Lowest was ~280 ish

 

[FreqFlyer]

Retail sales only down 24% (as opposed to fleet sales that cratered). GM beats expectations! Buy buy buy!

(I need me some of that popcorn - are you sharing?)

Thought it would be worse. Inventories at the dealers were kept low do to plants being shut down. Actually benefited the inventory situation.

 

[ThisStockGood]

Well... I bought a Tesla keyhanger to support the mission for S&P500 inclusion... but just afterwards I Supercharged my old, classic 2015 Model S 70 (free supercharging for life) for an amount pretty similar to the cost of the keyhanger...

Well, instead I’m counting on you guys who bought the FSD package and other epic stuff.

Enjoy the last night in the 1,000s ;-) Ahh, maybe I push it :-D

 

[dc_h]

If a stock does split, what happens to the options that were purchased before the split, but sold after? Do the contents of the option also split, ie, there is 200 in a call/put in a 2:1 split?

yes

 

[Mike Smith]

Someone just asked what Tesla would do when the world complelety runs out of lithium, and instead of pointing out that the world is never going to run out of lithium, Elon replied that all questions would be answered on Battery Day. Could he possibly be saying they have a plan for a non lithium-Ion battery? That's technically what he just said.

https://twitter.com/bipulh/status/1278427328696238083

 

[dc_h]

Note to self: never again sell covered TSLA calls for "quick buck". I got myself into a bit of pickle with this week meteoric rise. Completely self-inflicted, trying to do something I never done before... 7/10 $1200c.. Seemed safe last week... Not so much now. What's the chance they expire worthless or do i need to bite a bullet and buy-to-close them? I'm holding out hope but I don't know. Will wait to see what happens on Monday...

I avoided this week, concerned there would be a run up, as people realized the 73,000 delivery call on the street was stupid. I think there is a good chance of blowing through 1200 and a good chance of a sell the news drop. So worthless advise so far. You can sell 1200 puts for next week and hope they hit, or just keep selling 1200 puts or increase your strike price week after week, as you build up some profits. I think whatever Tesla does, it has always been volatile. I miss making some money on covered calls this week, but this was probably a good week to take a pass, or buy out of the money calls. As noted earlier, they were cheap and buying 1200 calls for this week, were up about 10x from Monday morning.

I'm not an expert and there are much better options traders on the forum then me, so not an advice.

 

[Lessmog]

New Audis coming out this autumn in Germany

Car	Range [km] (WLTP)	Power [kW] (official)	Price [€] (Germany)
Model S	610	310	80k
Model S Performace	593	449	97k
Audi e-tron S	360	370(Boost)	94k
Audi e-tron Sportback	365	370(Boost)	97k
e-tron 50 Quattro (since 2020)	300	230	67k
e-tron 55 Quattro (since 2019)	436	300	80k

You ask how they every gonna sell these? -> Company cars (featured by German pride) are very prominent in Germany.

edit: got no idea where this huge space comes from

Where those huge empty spaces come from?
Vorsprung durch Technik, my friend! A speciality of Audi's étron line.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Not only that, but...
View attachment 559242

2020 will be remembered as the "Bubba Gump Shrimp Company" moment when Tesla became THE Big Name in Automakers, and Hurricane Corona left other Automaker's fleet wrecked on the docks.

To the victor goes the spoils...

Cheers!

 

[Curt Renz]

InvestorPlace - 3 hours ago: To Invest in Tesla Stock Take the Long-Term View

 

[trailhound]

Tesla Removes Batteries From Scaled-Back Berlin Factory Plans
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
"The changes include eliminating facilities for battery-pack production and plastic components, local authorities said Wednesday, citing documents filed by the U.S. maker of electric cars to get the project approved. Tesla is cutting the height of most of the production building by about 29 feet to 50 feet."

this showed up on my feed this morning but i didn't see it posted-with all the money be counted and all

 

[MikeC]

TL;DR - yes. But read further for details.

I bought SCTY call options as an arbitrage play during the merger, so have direct experience here.

The option become a less-liquid "new" option that retains its original value, but becomes very hard to trade, because it's not listed as normal. For TDameritrade, they show up as "ns" (new stock?) options.

So if the stock splits 8:1, your option becomes a special option for 800 shares, instead of the usual 100. It should be valued accordingly, but because it's no longer well understood, the bid-ask gap becomes wider, so you'll lose a little more when selling.

Also, the auto-calculated gains/loss gets mucked up to the point that you have to calculate it yourself to be sure. Doing that for the 11 SCTY to 1 TSLA exchange was brutal!

I held some of those new “TSLA1” LEAPS for 2 years until close to expiration. Only worth 11 shares each contract but might have been my most profitable option trade by percentage because SCTY options were especially undervalued at that time. Bid-ask spreads were relative wide when they were farther out but tightened to pretty much normal as they got closer to expiration.

 

[Hock1]

https://twitter.com/mcjamez/status/1278420345616244736?s=21

Are we getting an email leak soon?
Elon sends congratulatory email to workers

I can confirm this. By chance I dropped off my S for first service today, at 3:30. Manager said he had just gotten such an email from Elon.